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Thread: Religion in the US - current data

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    Default Religion in the US - current data

    Interesting trends, based on a very large sample size. The political implications correspond with what I've been saying for quite a while, that the Republicans are becoming more and more dependent on a shrinking portion of the population. (Source)

    Protestants decline, more have no religion in a sharply shifting religious landscape (poll)
    By Allison De Jong
    May 10, 2018

    The nation’s religious makeup has shifted dramatically in the past 15 years, with a sharp drop in the number of Americans who say they’re members of a Protestant denomination – still the nation’s most prevalent religious group – and a rise in the number who profess no religion.

    On average last year, 36 percent of Americans in ABC News/Washington Post polls identified themselves as members of a Protestant faith, extending a gradual trend down from 50 percent in 2003. That includes an 8-point drop in the number of evangelical white Protestants, an important political group. Reflecting the change among Protestants, the share of Christians overall has declined from 83 percent of the adult population in 2003 to 72 percent on average last year. In the same time, the number of Americans who say they have no religion has nearly doubled, to 21 percent. Catholic self-identification (22 percent) has held steady during this time. The share of adults who identify with another form of Christianity – including Jehovah Witnesses, Mormons and Greek or Russian Orthodox, for example – has risen modestly, from 11 to 14 percent.

    This analysis, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, is based on a very large dataset – 174,485 random-sample telephone interviews in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted from 2003 to 2017. We focus mainly on 2003 and 2017 data, including 7,185 and 5,017 interviews, respectively.



    Among all Protestants, 56 percent currently say they’re evangelical or born-again; that has held essentially steady since 2003, with virtually equal declines in the number who say they’re either evangelical or non-evangelical Protestants, down 7 and 6 points, respectively.

    Evangelical white Protestants are of particular interest in political terms, since they’re a core group within the Republican coalition; 80 percent supported Donald Trump in 2016. Evangelical white Protestants’ share of the total adult population has gone from 21 percent in 2003 to 13 percent last year. Non-evangelical white Protestants have gone from 17 to 11 percent.



    Part of the decline in evangelical white Protestants reflects the fact that the change in Protestant self-identification overall has occurred disproportionately among whites. Thirty-nine percent of whites now identify themselves as members of a Protestant denomination, down 13 points since 2003. That compares with an 8-point decline among Hispanics (from 22 to 14 percent) and just 3 points among blacks (from 64 to 61 percent). An additional factor is the shrinking white non-Hispanic population, from 69 percent of all Americans in 2000 to an estimated 61 percent in 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    With the exception of race, the decline in Protestant affiliation has been broadly distributed among demographic groups.





    Most Protestants don’t identify themselves as Protestant but as a member of a particular Protestant denomination – Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Pentecostalist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian and others. Small, single-digit declines are apparent across nearly all of these groups, adding to the net 14-point drop in Protestants overall.

    Stability in the share of the population that’s Catholic, for its part, owes something to the increase in the country’s Hispanic population, because half of Hispanics identify themselves as Catholic. That said, even among non-Hispanic whites, the share of Catholics has held nearly steady – 22 percent in 2003 and 20 percent now.

    As the share of Protestants has declined, the number of adults expressing no religious affiliation has risen from 12 percent in 2003 to 21 percent of all adults in 2017. That includes 3 percent who say they’re atheists, 3 percent agnostic and 15 percent who say they have no religion. The proportions were similar 15 years ago. The largest shifts during this 15-year period include 16-point increases among young adults (age 18 to 29) and political liberals. The smallest changes have occurred among Republicans, conservatives and blacks (+4 points in each group) as well as older Americans, +5 points.

    Having no religious affiliation is most prevalent among 18- to 29-year-olds, at 35 percent, vs. 13 percent among those age 50 and older. It’s also higher among men than women (25 vs. 17 percent), among college graduates vs. those without a degree (25 vs. 20 percent), and among whites and Hispanics than among blacks (22 and 20 percent vs. 15 percent).

    It differs among political and ideological groups as well. Thirty-five percent of liberals report no religious affiliation, compared with 21 percent of moderates and 12 percent of conservatives. Twenty-three and 25 percent of Democrats and independents, respectively, don’t report a religion, dropping to 10 percent of Republicans. Indeed the non-religious are something of a political counterpoint to evangelical white Protestants; 67 percent of those with no religious affiliation supported Hillary Clinton in 2016.




    Other groups represent much smaller shares of the population. Using the entire 15 years of data, 1.7 percent of Americans are Jews, 1.4 percent Mormons and 0.5 percent Muslims, for example. Jews and Mormons have held essentially steady in size, while Muslims have gone from 0.4 to 0.8 percent of all adults in this period.

    Religious groups differ dramatically in their politics. Evangelical white Protestants, as noted, are a core GOP group; 48 percent identify themselves as Republicans, 31 percent as political independents and just 14 percent as Democrats. Similarly, 53 percent of Mormons are Republicans, 34 percent independents and 9 percent Democrats. Across the political spectrum, 57 percent of Muslims and 48 percent of Jews say they’re Democrats; just 5 and 16 percent, respectively, are Republicans.

    Ideological differences are similar. Conservatives account for six in 10 Mormons and nearly as many evangelical white Protestants, compared with 38 percent of white Catholics, a third of non-evangelical Protestants and just 16 percent of Jews. Roughly four in 10 Jews, Muslims and non-religious adults alike are liberals; it’s half that, or lower, in other groups.


    The ABC/Post question on religious identity asks, “What, if anything, is your religion?” with follow-up questions on their church or denomination. Christian respondents also are asked, “Would you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not?” Results correspond with other research. The Public Religion Research Institute found that 24 percent of Americans identified as “atheist,” “agnostic” or “nothing in particular” in 2017, up from 14 percent in 2004. Similarly, in Gallup polls, 38 percent identify as Protestants, down from 49 percent in 2003, and 20 percent have no religious affiliation, up 10 percentage points.

    This analysis is based on 174,485 interviews from ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted by telephone from 2003 to 2017. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Rockville, MD, or SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. See methodological details here.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 05-11-2018 at 10:49 AM.
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    I always suspected Protestants were smarter than the rest.

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    Let's hope it shrinks before we lose our democracy.

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    The saddest part of that is that 79% of Americans are still religious.

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    Religion does a lot of damage.

    Just consider how sex, a natural part of life, is made 'dirty' by religious beliefs. Ponder how many 'religious' people want YOU to live by their beliefs, while they don't.

    Religious beliefs give the believer a 'holier than thou' attitude and an excuse to belittle, degrade, or simply hate gays and others they disapprove of.
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    An American town has two Protestant churches. One Protestant church is full Trump, American Exceptionalist, America is a Christian Nation, breathing fire, abusing its tax-free status to the hilt.

    The Protestant church on the other side of town says what?

    Most Protestants donít identify themselves as Protestant but as a member of a particular Protestant denomination Ė Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Pentecostalist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian and others. Small, single-digit declines are apparent across nearly all of these groups, adding to the net 14-point drop in Protestants overall.
    Implies that they are all political in the sense of having many competitors; but the pie is shrinking. Is this not the very time to energize the base?
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    Again, and I'll write this again and again until my fingers fall off, 'religion' is not one thing. The ratio of good done to harm caused varies vastly.

    One example: John says "consider how sex, a natural part of life, is made 'dirty' by religious beliefs", and in some cases this is certainly true. Yet the Unitarian-Universalists and the United Church of Christ have an astoundingly comprehensive sex education curriculum (you can look it up here) which most emphatically does NOT do that. Both of my kids went through it. Parents are required to get a pretty comprehensive overview in advance to avoid surprises, and God help me, there was stuff in there I didn't know. In high school, my daughter (who seems to be largely devoid of embarrassment) became the person that her friends went to for accurate unbiased information, since some of them had fundamentalist parents, and the school sex ed was sketchy at best. It helped that her mom used to work at Planned Parenthood, but most of it came from that course. All religion is NOT alike.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    All religion is NOT alike.
    Yep, as a broad brush generalisation only USA and Norn Iron protestants are bat****e crazy.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    All religion is alike in that all regard faith, not reason, as a legitimate way of thinking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    All religion is alike in that all regard faith, not reason, as a legitimate way of thinking.
    Faith and reason aren't mutually exclusive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbcc View Post
    Faith and reason aren't mutually exclusive.
    Yeah, they are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    All religion is alike in that all regard faith, not reason, as a legitimate way of thinking.
    Not really true. A prominent strand in some eastern religions is to regard all thinking as suspect. To put it another way, the legitimacy of both faith and reason is questionable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    All religion is alike in that all regard faith, not reason, as a legitimate way of thinking.
    LOL!! I take it you've never had much to do with Unitarians.

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Yep, as a broad brush generalisation only USA and Norn Iron protestants are bat****e crazy.
    Only a subset of US Protestants - say 40 -50%. Too damn many, for sure.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 05-11-2018 at 01:25 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Only a subset of US Protestants - say 40 -50%. Too damn many, for sure.
    40 - 50% is a very sizeable proportion, subset is misleading -significant portion conveys more meaning.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Too many, that's for sure - but declining. (I normally use 'subset' to mean anything significantly less than the whole, but that may be idiosyncratic?) The percentage of the population identifying themselves as 'evangelical protestant' (white folks) dropped from 21% to 13% in 15 years.
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    How long before it declines to an insignificant portion?
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Too many, that's for sure - but declining. (I normally use 'subset' to mean anything significantly less than the whole, but that may be idiosyncratic?) The percentage of the population identifying themselves as 'evangelical protestant' (white folks) dropped from 21% to 13% in 15 years.
    Na, the issue seems to be that protestants in Europe and the UK mainland are reasonably sensible if declining in numbers. Methodists are good people. But the USA and Norn Iron seem to breed nutters.
    "Sub" whilst semantically correct, implies a small proportion to me.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Indeed. But what we call 'mainline Protestants' - Episcopal, Presbyterian, UCC, most Lutherans, most Methodists, American Baptist Church - aro pretty much like protestants in Europe, not generally nuts at all. Think TomF.

    How long before it declines to an insignificant portion?
    Don't hold your breath. 50 years? 100 years? Too far out to make predictions.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 05-11-2018 at 04:11 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    Religion does a lot of damage.

    Just consider how sex, a natural part of life, is made 'dirty' by religious beliefs. Ponder how many 'religious' people want YOU to live by their beliefs, while they don't.

    Religious beliefs give the believer a 'holier than thou' attitude and an excuse to belittle, degrade, or simply hate gays and others they disapprove of.
    A post written from either complete ignorance, or based on puritanical Protestant ideas that are quite out of date.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    All religion is alike in that all regard faith, not reason, as a legitimate way of thinking.
    Ignorance again. It us a dogma of the Catholic Church that there can never be a conflict between faith and reason. Which is why modern science came to us via the Church.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...rgy_scientists

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    Thanks for the data Keith, it's interesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Interesting trends, based on a very large sample size. The political implications correspond with what I've been saying for quite a while, that the Republicans are becoming more and more dependent on a shrinking portion of the population. (Source)
    The last chart indicates that Jews and Muslims tend to be Democratic. And the rest of the religions tend to be Republican.
    Life is complex.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Ignorance again. It us a dogma of the Catholic Church that there can never be a conflict between faith and reason. Which is why modern science came to us via the Church.
    True. But to be fair, at one point that was interpreted to mean that scientific reason had to follow the teaching of the church. Not lately, though.

    I will take issue with the idea that modern science was an outgrowth of the church. This is a standard modern Catholic argument, and it's partially true, but only partially, At the time modern science was getting started , most universities and scholarship of any kind were intimately involved with the church, and if someone wanted pretty much any kind of higher education, that's where they'd have to go. The relationship of the Catholic Church with science early on was ambivalent at best; not as bad as those who think Galileo's fate was the norm might believe, but not as nearly as rosy as you paint it. And after the Reformation, the scientific center of gravity definitely shifted to northern Europe and the Protestant countries for a good long time.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 05-11-2018 at 04:38 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Ignorance again. It us a dogma of the Catholic Church that there can never be a conflict between faith and reason. Which is why modern science came to us via the Church.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...rgy_scientists
    A sweeping generalisation peb that is only true after some pretty dire screw ups were put to bed.

    Galileo and the Muslims?
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Ho hum……..
    I still reckon it depends on the way you are wired. A far back as I can remember, (early primary school) I knew religions were nonsense. Religions.
    Constructs, not the same as a belief in a personal god. Some 'religions' seem more like mass hysteria and very shakily based.

    And you all know by now that I, personally, don't believe in anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    A post written from either complete ignorance, or based on puritanical Protestant ideas that are quite out of date.
    Religion is a tool. It can be used for good purpose or bad purpose. Far too often it justifies the unjustifiable.

    Isn't it religion that defines 'sin'?
    How do we form a mutiny? Our new captain is navigating poorly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Ho hum……..
    I still reckon it depends on the way you are wired. A far back as I can remember, (early primary school) I knew religions were nonsense. Religions.
    Constructs, not the same as a belief in a personal god. Some 'religions' seem more like mass hysteria and very shakily based.

    And you all know by now that I, personally, don't believe in anything.
    Research does agree with you.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    The Rector of our parish related that the degree religious activity was greatest amount the "hard" science professionals, math, physics, and astronomy, and less with the more I call "squishy" science professionals like sociology, psychology, etc.

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    Well, we have made some progress. I find it very encouraging (taking the long view) that the term 'witch hunt' has come to mean unjust persecution of the innocent on trumped-up charges of imaginary misconduct. At one point, it meant something quite different.
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    Isn't it religion that defines 'sin'?
    Sure - but practically, it just means behavior that's wrong, and we all have an idea of what that is. I'd bet you and I and peb and even, say, Daniel Noyes, would agree about 90% on the definition. Some disagreement, of course, but far more agreement.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahp View Post
    The Rector of our parish related that the degree religious activity was greatest amount the "hard" science professionals, math, physics, and astronomy, and less with the more I call "squishy" science professionals like sociology, psychology, etc.
    Fairy Nuff.

    I guess that the "squishy" ones deal with peoples emotional needs more than the others, so have a better understanding of what lies behind the need for a faith.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Near as I can figure, after a fair amount of study, the etymology of 'religion' comes from the Latin religio, which means to link to. Something larger than the self, the ego? People, at various times and in all places, have always had the hunger to be connected to something larger than themselves. They have sought this larger kinship through stories, rituals, and sometimes formal doctrines. It satisfies some primal need, hunger, in the human spirit that goes beyond mere community with our fellows. Community with our fellows can be a big part of scratching the itch, but there has always been something 'other'. We humans are a curious lot.

    Religions, being human institutions, have often gone astray in their doctrine and official actions. I can't think of a single one that hasn't. But rather than throw the proverbial baby out, perhaps look more deeply. Look at the traditions you've been raised with. Even if you've had no formal training, the water you've swum in all your life has formed who you are. With all the dross, there is gold to be found there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Sure - but practically, it just means behavior that's wrong, and we all have an idea of what that is. I'd bet you and I and peb and even, say, Daniel Noyes, would agree about 90% on the definition. Some disagreement, of course, but far more agreement.
    Of course we would, that's why it's called natural law

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    True. But to be fair, at one point that was interpreted to mean that scientific reason had to follow the teaching of the church. Not lately, though.

    I will take issue with the idea that modern science was an outgrowth of the church. This is a standard modern Catholic argument, and it's partially true, but only partially, At the time modern science was getting started , most universities and scholarship of any kind were intimately involved with the church, and if someone wanted pretty much any kind of higher education, that's where they'd have to go. The relationship of the Catholic Church with science early on was ambivalent at best; not as bad as those who think Galileo's fate was the norm might believe, but not as nearly as rosy as you paint it. And after the Reformation, the scientific center of gravity definitely shifted to northern Europe and the Protestant countries for a good long time.
    Keith, both paragraphs are wrong, wish I was at my computer and had some time to respond in detail. Will have to wait.

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