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Thread: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

  1. #106
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Icahn is worth $17 billion. He sold $30 million in stock. He avoided a $2 million drop in market value. Hardly a significant change of either his investment or financial positions.

    I (as well in the financial industry) suspect the company's financial position had more to do with the stock's price change than the announcement of a tariff. I am sure the SEC will investigate if it feels it is appropriate.
    The crime of insider trading does not depend on whether the trader made money or not
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Job losses have little to do with tariffs. Businesses have economic agendas.
    of course they do and those economic agendas include job losses when consumers react to rising prices.

    But you knew that.
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat View Post
    The crime of insider trading does not depend on whether the trader made money or not
    The implication of previous posts was that this transaction was material to Icahn. As I pointed out it was not.

    The crime also depends on the facts not internet gossip. I don't see the facts as pointing toward insider trading. Volume, price history, and quarterly reports are available online. If you do a lot of work, you can find some of Icahn's ownership history.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by ccmanuals View Post
    of course they do and those economic agendas include job losses when consumers react to rising prices.

    But you knew that.
    The price increase on a can of beer is 3/10 cent. On the cost of a car $170. Very few consumers budget that carefully.

    I am sure people will lose their jobs. When they do, tariffs will be blamed where possible. And the fact that businesses received a large tax break - for the most part more than enough to make up for the tariffs, will be ignored by all.
    Life is complex.

  5. #110

    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Job losses have little to do with tariffs. Businesses have economic agendas.
    Whoa that's a whopper.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...rticle/554690/

  6. #111
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    The implication of previous posts was that this transaction was material to Icahn. As I pointed out it was not.

    The crime also depends on the facts not internet gossip. I don't see the facts as pointing toward insider trading. Volume, price history, and quarterly reports are available online. If you do a lot of work, you can find some of Icahn's ownership history.
    No, the implication in the prior posts was that Icahn was acting on inside information. No one knows the facts yet. There will be an investigation by SEC if warranted
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    $170 is a month's payment on a cheap car. In the competitive automotive world - that's real money where the accountants look for a savings of 10 cents. 170 times 10 million cars is 1.7 billion - not exactly chump change - even to you.

    But - go ahead & feel good about handing business to other countries. They thank you.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  8. #113
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat View Post
    No, the implication in the prior posts was that Icahn was acting on inside information. No one knows the facts yet. There will be an investigation by SEC if warranted
    opps
    Last edited by Too Little Time; 03-04-2018 at 03:52 PM.
    Life is complex.

  9. #114
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    $170 is a month's payment on a cheap car. In the competitive automotive world - that's real money where the accountants look for a savings of 10 cents. 170 times 10 million cars is 1.7 billion - not exactly chump change - even to you.

    But - go ahead & feel good about handing business to other countries. They thank you.
    You really have to stretch for that one.

    The correct monthly payment computation is the change in payment. Just using the calculator Google provided and the default interest rate and term: $4/payment increase. That is on new cars. Insignificant to a purchaser.

    You neglected to adjust the auto companies' accounts for the recent tax break.

    Jobs and business left the US long ago. Some sort of US government policy encouraged that. I had no problem with it at the time or even now.
    Life is complex.

  10. #115
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    You really have to stretch for that one.

    The correct monthly payment computation is the change in payment. Just using the calculator Google provided and the default interest rate and term: $4/payment increase. That is on new cars. Insignificant to a purchaser.

    You neglected to adjust the auto companies' accounts for the recent tax break.

    Jobs and business left the US long ago. Some sort of US government policy encouraged that. I had no problem with it at the time or even now.
    OK - forget about the monthly payment part - even if it was intended merely to show that $170 is indeed significant money - not that I thought it would change payments by that amount (you must really think people here are stupid?).

    Of course the auto companies got a big tax reduction - but that has zip to do with the insanity of tariffs.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Icahn is worth $17 billion. He sold $30 million in stock. He avoided a $2 million drop in market value. Hardly a significant change of either his investment or financial positions.

    I (as well in the financial industry) suspect the company's financial position had more to do with the stock's price change than the announcement of a tariff. I am sure the SEC will investigate if it feels it is appropriate.
    How much stock did Martha Stewart sell on a tip that "bad news is coming" and what was her sentence for it?
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    You really have to stretch for that one.

    The correct monthly payment computation is the change in payment. Just using the calculator Google provided and the default interest rate and term: $4/payment increase. That is on new cars. Insignificant to a purchaser.

    You neglected to adjust the auto companies' accounts for the recent tax break.

    Jobs and business left the US long ago. Some sort of US government policy encouraged that. I had no problem with it at the time or even now.
    You are just a bot, aren't you? There's no human there.

  13. #118
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    What is largely being neglected in this discussion is NOT the dollars and cents impact on any particular manufactured product... it's the impact, the psychological impact, on both investors as well as businessmen, managers, and executives. A stable market economy depends on at least some level of predictability; uncertainty fuels volatility, and nowhere is that more obvious than the 500 point drop in the market the other day. CEO's don't want to make fixed cost investments in businesses, when they can't rely on the trajectory of governmental policy. The mere announcement of a tariff (and that's pretty much all it was, since it's clear that none of the paperwork was done, before Trump shot his mouth off) had a very visceral effect on investors.

    Next comes retaliation; while the country might not suffer if the European Union decides to impose tariffs on Harley Davidson motorcycles, Kentucky bourbon, or Florida orange juice (as they have already threatened), the workers at Harley, the distilleries, and the Florida orange growers might. Anyone who thinks this is exclusively about steel is a complete idiot.

    Trade wars benefit no one. Whether they benefit Trump himself, by pleasing the minority of voters who still think that the guy is a rational actor, is hard to say.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  14. #119
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts


    Here's What You Need to Know about Trump's Trade War

    Trump's Trade Wars: Where We Stand with Canada, Mexico, and China
    President Trump is very tired of America's "very bad" trade deals. Here's a look at what's to come.


    By GRACE DONNELLY March 2, 2018


    President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have raised fears of an international trade war.
    The plan, debated intensely within the White House, is to levy a 25% tax on steel imports and a 10% tax on aluminum imports by 10%.
    But foreign countries that are impacted may retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. products. In other words, a trade war. Here’s what that means, how it could impact the U.S. economy, and whether you should be worried.
    What is a trade war?

    A trade war is when a country imposes tariffs or other barriers on imported products, prompting other countries to retaliate by implementing similar taxes or penalties.
    Trump has actually already declared a “trade war” by calling for tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, says Manuel Perez-Rocha, an Associate Fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies. “What we can expect our trade partners to elicit legal challenges underWTO [World Trade Organization] rules and start retaliation against American exports,” he told Fortune.

    When was the last time the U.S. had a trade war?

    The last trade war was in the 1930s, and intensified the effects of the Great Depression, according to economists and trade experts. It started after President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act into law in 1930, which raised tariffs on more than 20,000 products.
    Trump advisers argue that the current administration’s tariffs, which are targeted only at steel and aluminum, are not the same as the protectionist Smoot Hawley provisions that raised tariffs on many products and all countries. But some experts say the current proposal could still kick off a full-blown trade war.
    “If China and Mexico retaliate against the United States, that would be similar to Smoot-Hawley,” says Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth and author ofPeddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression.
    Why does Trump want a trade war?

    Trump has a “maniacal focus” on trade deficits, according to Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. This kind of tit-for-tat strategy loses the bigger picture of U.S. trade relationships.


    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump



    When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
    9:50 PM - Mar 2, 2018




    “[A]n upheaval in trade would swamp all the potential gains from slashing regulations and taxes,” Fortune’s Shawn Tully wrote at the outset of Trump’s tenure. “Odds are that a full-on breakout of protectionism would cause the value of the dollar to spike, shrink-exports, and hobble growth.”
    Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum, a center-right advocacy group, and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office under George W. Bush, called a trade war “the big risk to [Trump’s] success.
    Perez-Rocha, the Institute for Policy Studies fellow, said: “A full blown trade war is dangerous for both sides. U.S. exporters can be badly damaged as well, from planes to canned products.”
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  15. #120
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Dolt 45 has signed it off.
    President Trump has imposed controversial orders imposing heavy tariffs on steel and aluminium - but some countries will be spared.
    Mr Trump has said the US is suffering from "unfair trade" and that the move would boost US industry.
    But countries had expressed outrage at his plans, and experts warned of new trade wars.
    The tariffs will go into effect in 15 days and include exemptions for Canada and Mexico.
    Tariffs of 25% are to be placed on steel and 10% on aluminium imported into the US.
    Steel and aluminium workers were at the signing.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43337951
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  16. #121
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    It is colossally stupid. Even with the exemptions for Canada and Mexico, without which America would have lost countless jobs.
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Policy by twitter has it's hazards. Plenty of those in the know seem to have made money, others not so.
    There's a term called kite flying in politics where a politician puts out an idea unofficially to 'see how it flies'. But Donald's moves owing to his position of power within the wider world can be far more damaging. It will be interesting to see if the exemptions leak further.

  18. #123
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Democrats have just lost the rust belt.

    This is the end of democrats ever having the white house again.

    Trump is for our workers.

    Promise made promise kept.

    This is wha t winning looks like.

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    I have me doubts that the workers will have actually won in the wash up bobbys. But then you know that if you are not completely stupid, and I don't think you are.

  20. #125

    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    The first Trump war is a trade war, who would have thought. Now watch other countries target his Mitch and Paul's base.

  21. #126
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Bobbys, Trump has only "won" if as a provable result of this tariff, a net larger number of Americans have good and secure jobs. Gdp from steel- and aluminum- using industries doesn't go down while American steel and aluminum production increases.

    He only wins if the way that American steel and aluminum producing increases actually increases the # of workers making the stuff too - because robots make profit, but they don't vote. They don't buy American made goods and services either.

    If Trump is gonna "win" for the little guy, then let him actually make their lives better. Not tell them that their lives are better, whether or not it's actually true.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  22. #127
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    The price increase on a can of beer is 3/10 cent. On the cost of a car $170. Very few consumers budget that carefully.

    I am sure people will lose their jobs. When they do, tariffs will be blamed where possible. And the fact that businesses received a large tax break - for the most part more than enough to make up for the tariffs, will be ignored by all.
    The increased cost of the steel in an average new car would be about $500, which is a tad more than $170. FWIW, that's more than the profit margin on many cars. That only reflects the average impact, of course. In the real world, many auto components are sold at prices a fraction of one percent more than the price of the materials they are made from. This means that these components would be impossible to make in the U.S. with high tariffs on steel. The net impact on manufacturing products made of steel in the U.S. will be hugely negative. Aluminum not so much, unless you happen to work for Ford, which makes virtually of its profits on aluminum vehicles these days.

  23. #128
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    A stable market economy depends on at least some level of predictability; uncertainty fuels volatility, and nowhere is that more obvious than the 500 point drop in the market the other day.

    CEO's don't want to make fixed cost investments in businesses, when they can't rely on the trajectory of governmental policy. The mere announcement of a tariff (and that's pretty much all it was, since it's clear that none of the paperwork was done, before Trump shot his mouth off) had a very visceral effect on investors.
    Some investors come up with irrational reasons for market price changes.

    I find it more plausible that the market performance over the past 5-10 years is more than sufficient to push returns down and roil the markets. If you consider 10% annualized "down," and normal volatility to be "roiling."
    Life is complex.

  24. #129
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Some investors come up with irrational reasons for market price changes.

    I find it more plausible that the market performance over the past 5-10 years is more than sufficient to push returns down and roil the markets. If you consider 10% annualized "down," and normal volatility to be "roiling."
    Investors have been known to confuse two similar sounding companies and trade shares in the wrong one.
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  25. #130
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan McCosh View Post
    The increased cost of the steel in an average new car would be about $500, which is a tad more than $170. FWIW, that's more than the profit margin on many cars. That only reflects the average impact, of course. In the real world, many auto components are sold at prices a fraction of one percent more than the price of the materials they are made from. This means that these components would be impossible to make in the U.S. with high tariffs on steel. The net impact on manufacturing products made of steel in the U.S. will be hugely negative. Aluminum not so much, unless you happen to work for Ford, which makes virtually of its profits on aluminum vehicles these days.
    While I think your economic analysis is wrong, I do agree that US businesses will be adversely affected.
    Life is complex.

  26. #131
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    When other countries raise tariffs on Kentucky bourbon, will that cause our price here to go down?

  27. #132
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    I kinda doubt it.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  28. #133
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Supply will likely go up and demand down.

  29. #134
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Yeah, but there will be incentive to hold onto stock for when this silly skirmish blows over, and pent-up demand will lead to higher prices.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Two Scoops will fold on this. It’s like the Muslim ban but even more stupid.

  31. #136
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    He is already folding. "Very flexible " with exemptions for 2 of the top 5 steel supplier countries doesn't sound like last week's rhetoric.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Sen. Jeff Flake will introduce legislation to reverse D.Tramp's new tariffs.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...48054?cmpid=sf
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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Democrats have just lost the rust belt
    Many of them will be under pressure from constituents to support the policy. Many of them already do, as does Big Labor.

    Listening to all these so-called "progressives" extolling free trade is a real hoot. Their hatred of Trump exceeds their own instinct for political survival. They don't care about working people. They deceive no one but themselves.

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Has anybody ever tried this genius idea before???

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    Default Re: Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs.... the market drops 500 pts

    Tariffs? Sure. Rule of thumb is that no leading economy has ever become a leading economy except with tariff walls protecting their industry, but they become free traders when they can bury their competitors.

    Or at least, that is how it worked in the old economy, with less global sourcing and manufacturing. The capacity to have a wholly, or even mostly domestic economy has evaporated with the consumer demand for goods which can't be manufactured in high wage and high environmental protection countries at price points that the inhabitants of the market countries can buy. The world has changed.

    Part of what has changed is the degree of commonality among the international rich class, which (think of any of Trump's friends and family) have far more in common with their peers from any country than the poorer of their own country's citizens. The wage pressure is increasingly gonna raise wages over there and depress them here. Producing aggregate larger global markets by increasing purchaser numbers in India and China, even while our wage pool stratifies and the middle class shrinks here.

    Bear in mind that in Nairobi, being middle class means that you have cold running water, electricity most of the time, and can have a cell phone. A friend who worked at the World Health Organization was shocked to go to Nairobi to work with some equally highly educated peers on an epidemiology project, and to find how even the WHO Grant funding the project replicated the disparity between her salary and the salaries of her in-country peers, who were every bit as competent but we're paid a pittance.

    That is where things are trending, imo. Will make the rich far richer for a few more decades, and as they don't live with or like us now, the fact that our standard of living will drop sharply doesn't much concern them.

    I mean, do you think Donald Trump Jr will care? Really?
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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