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Thread: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    If anyone is interested do some research into petroleum based air pollution and it's effects in utero of unborn infants, and it's permanent effects in their gene make-up. Look up Asthma research as a starter.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    There is a bottom line that refutes the pessimism attached to that list of possibles.
    Any countries population must be in paid employment. If they are not earning a wage they cannot buy goods ir pay taxes. If they cannot do either the nation ceases to function.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  3. #38
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Nah, China is changing, Africa is exporting rather than using, and India is mostly rural.
    Sure it’s changing. China is growing its highways and vehicle ownership tremendously which pretty much gurantees a larger chunk of the worlds available exports in the future. When oil exploded up to $140/barrel they were still increasing consumption as OECD countries dropped. 25% of worlds car production is bought in China.

    I see these regions population growth representing an energy sink just to feed and house them. Many African nations are exporters and like most oil producers their internal consumption goes up eating away at the available exports as the nations reserves are depleted. Look at Egypt and Yemen as examples of this. Egypt was an exporter up until ten years ago and is now an importer. Africas oil exports peaked ten years ago and are declining.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    There is a bottom line that refutes the pessimism attached to that list of possibles.
    Any countries population must be in paid employment. If they are not earning a wage they cannot buy goods ir pay taxes. If they cannot do either the nation ceases to function.
    Such blinkered old world thinking! Give the people money, they will spend it. They will buy goods and services made by people who work, or by machines. Read John Welsfords post about NZs universal retirement income. Read my post about putting a decent value on the resources which the citizens rightly own. Open your eyes and your mind man!

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Perhaps wishful thinking on my part due to the disappointment of observing China - and in later years, India too - treading on a similar path that the 'developed' world was getting thoroughly disillusioned with, viz., the internal combustion engine, private car ownership, highways, air pollution, oil consumption etc.

    Well, China´s magnificent highways are already in place but the Chinese too are leaning heavily towards electrically-powered vehicles; India is lagging behind a great deal in terms of consumer ownership, which is fortunate in a way, as losses will be curtailed as the switch towards electric vehicles gains momentum.

    Major cities in both these nations often see the air pollution index grossly exceeded; yet, they are the two major customers of Iranian oil and will continue to be for the near future.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Phil, John W, some good points! Didn't know about the NZ system! I worry that technological change will exacerbate the current trend of wealth concentration, hoping the opposite of course. The internet has provided some opening up in specific areas but the trend continues, refer the pitchfork thread
    the invisible man........

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    Interestingly, there is a sort of indicator in New Zealands "retired" population. Now bear in mind that as recently as say, five decades ago, "over 65" was viewed as getting old enough to be pretty much "past it". Today, most middle class people here see getting to that age as a time of change in their lives rather than the beginning of the end. A few years back our country introduced a liveable universal "retirement" income which starts on ones 65th birthday. Everyone gets it. Women and men, married or single, people who've never worked in their lives, very wealthy people, wage earners, investors, trust fund beneficiaries, immigrants. Everyone. Its paid no matter what other income, savings or assets the person has. Reading some of the commentary above, you'd think that the day that income begins, everyone would down tools and relax but the opposite has happened. The percentage of people 65 and over who are in paid work of some kind has risen steeply every year since that was introduced, the upward kink in the graph curve is very clear.
    Some people start tiny businesses, I did some machinery repair work for a lady of a certain age who has a little workshop in what was a single garage, she makes the most exquisite deckchairs that rock like a rocker, all the way from raw stock, upholstery and all. She makes one a day, sells them at a craft market, better than doubles her government retirement income, pays taxes, and is helping her grandkids to buy their houses. She was an accountant in her previous life. An occupation which is being majorly impacted by computer software and which will almost disappear in coming years.
    Some just stay in their specialist occupations, I'm one of those, do my boat design thing as well as some light engineering work on site with spanners, some choose to work in seasonal work, and many of the increasing number of "grey nomads" do that, providing the middle management for the crop growers who are increasingly using temporary permit migrant workers from the Pacific Islands to pick, plant, prune or whatever the fruit and veges, and so on. Many are really adventurous in their choices of occupation, they can afford to take some risks as they have a backup income which will keep coming no matter what. And they are, there are opportunities to work and make a buck popping up that didn't exist a few years back, and its these people who are pioneering those jobs, many of which will change or disappear in the future, but with a guaranteed income, they can afford to take that chance.
    The above is also happening in those parts of the world where a universal basic income is being experimented with, the overall productivity of the population in those areas rises. For sure, there are some who metaphorically just go and get one of those deck chairs and lie back, but for every one who does there are many who either join up with a volunteer organisation who makes the world a better place in some way, who go out and get themselves better educated or trained in a new field then start a brand new career, start a new business, or just take up an interesting job.
    They're not the money sink that was predicted when the universal income for over 65s was introduced. They pay taxes, they spend money which helps businesses survive, they use services and pay for them, they run clubs and volunteer services. They are an increasingly important part of our economy rather than the drain that they were expected to be.

    John Welsford
    That's encouraging John.

    I live on an island that has an unusually high ratio of wealthy, educated retired folks and they fit your description well. It's nice living in such an environment, I hope to see more of the world doing so.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    Such blinkered old world thinking! Give the people money, they will spend it. They will buy goods and services made by people who work, or by machines. Read John Welsfords post about NZs universal retirement income. Read my post about putting a decent value on the resources which the citizens rightly own. Open your eyes and your mind man!
    It is basic economics, value added. How is retirement income generated without an economy based on adding value? Governments cannot just print money, Germany tried that after WW1, look what happened then.
    John is talking about staving off boredom, not economics.
    In the UK they are raising the retirement age because not enough income is being generated by workers adding value to pay for retirement at 65.
    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    Yeah I think you have to go back and change some fundamentals. Put a much higher price on the resources which are used to make stuff, whether it be land, minerals, disposal of waste including to the atmosphere, roads etc. Then suddenly the state has a huge dividend, and a duty to distribute that dividend to its owners, the people. All the people become capitalists, we own all the stuff. We sell it to companies who want to use their robots to transform the stuff into goods which we buy, with our dividends. And we have time to get a better education, to pursue music, art, adventure, to think, to write more than a tweet, to spend with our families and communities, to make boats and cakes, to go for walks and grow vegetables, to raise our kids and teach them values like sharing, helping and taking responsibility.
    This is just talking about a government printing silly money. The only nation anywhere close to this is Norway with their oil income.
    The emergence of Norway as an oil-exporting country has raised a number of issues for Norwegian economic policy. There has been concern that much of Norway's human capital investment has been concentrated in petroleum-related industries. Critics have pointed out that Norway's economic structure is highly dependent on natural resources that do not require skilled labor, making economic growth highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the demand and pricing for these natural resources. The Government Pension Fund of Norway is part of several efforts to hedge against dependence on petroleum revenue.

    Because of the oil boom since the 1970s, there has been little government incentive to help develop and encourage new industries in the private sector, in contrast to other Nordic countries like Sweden and particularly Finland. However the last decades have started to see some incentive on national and local government levels to encourage formation of new "mainland" industries that are competitive internationally. In addition to aspirations for a high-tech industry, there is growing interest in encouraging small business growth as a source of employment for the future. In 2006, the Norwegian government formed nine "centers of expertise" to facilitate this business growth.[23] Later in June 2007, the government contributed to the formation of the Oslo Cancer Cluster (OCC) as a center of expertise, capitalizing on the fact that 80% of cancer research in Norway takes place in proximity to Oslo and that most Norwegian biotechnology companies are focused on cancer.[23]
    Then when the oil is depleted as it will be they will have to fall back on value added wealth generation. Forestry fishing and high tech.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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  9. #44
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford

    So many of the things in my every day life didn't exist not very long ago.

    John Welsford.
    True for all of us I expect, but my favorite things are still the old, tried and true and simple things, like my wife , my Stanley bock plane and wooden boats, wildlife, camping etc. I don't suppose those sort of things will ever be phased out, and it would be really nice if the wonders of the modern world allow people to enjoy the old world wonders more.

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    It is basic economics, value added. How is retirement income generated without an economy based on adding value? Governments cannot just print money, Germany tried that after WW1, look what happened then.
    John is talking about staving off boredom, not economics.
    In the UK they are raising the retirement age because not enough income is being generated by workers adding value to pay for retirement at 65.
    This is just talking about a government printing silly money. The only nation anywhere close to this is Norway with their oil income. Then when the oil is depleted as it will be they will have to fall back on value added wealth generation. Forestry fishing and high tech.
    You are forgetting, or probably just unable to process, the basic premise that almost all the value add will be done by intelligent machines. We then just need a process to distribute the wealth those machines generate. Call it silly money if you like. But it's nothing like post war Germany or current day America.

    I think John is talking about staving off boredom and about economics. But I think he's also talking about a more engaged, creative existence. I rather suspect that the woman in her garage making beatiful hand crafted chairs, from plain lumber and upholstering materiel, and selling her wares at a local market, is probably far more fulfilled that she ever was working as an accountant spending dreary days doing double entry book keeping, or manufacturing tax deductions or whatever she was doing.

  11. #46
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    It is basic economics, value added. How is retirement income generated without an economy based on adding value? Governments cannot just print money, Germany tried that after WW1, look what happened then.
    John is talking about staving off boredom, not economics.
    In the UK they are raising the retirement age because not enough income is being generated by workers adding value to pay for retirement at 65.
    This is just talking about a government printing silly money. The only nation anywhere close to this is Norway with their oil income. Then when the oil is depleted as it will be they will have to fall back on value added wealth generation. Forestry fishing and high tech.
    "Staving off boredom" is indeed a factor, but most of these people are using their additional income to good purpose, travel, settling up the mortgage. Some see it as an opportunity to use skills gained over a lifetime to better effect than possible when working under someone else's direction, some are helping kids into better financial positions or as one of my friends put it, "I've now got a chance to pay forward the debt that I incurred when so many people helped me in the past". My mum, 93 next month, is the secretary for the local community hall committee, takes the bookings and payments, keeps the books and has done since 1956. She gets a pretty good honorarium, uses it to go and visit her cousins each year, but the pay is not what motivates her, its just so much a part of her she cant quit.
    There are as many motives as there are people, but its clear that those who stay interested and active live longer, are happier and stay healthier.
    Thats as good a reason as any.

    John Welsford
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I think the list in the OP is massively overwrought. Yes, it does describe real changes that are coming.... but the predictions are wildly over the top.

    Futurists nearly always get the timing wrong. I first saw '2001: A Space Odyssey' in the 70's... but it described a future 30 years forward which looks nothing like what was predicted, in the film. Similarly, Orwell's classic '1984', was written in 1949... and while it was a great book, it simply missed the mark, by miles.
    But Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy (Douglas Adams) predicted the laptop/tablet with uncanny accuracy. True; one has to add the "Don't Panic" sticker, but otherwise it's amazingly prescient.

    I was pleased to see Elon Musk, had "Don't Panic" on the dashboard of the car he put into space.

  13. #48
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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    "Staving off boredom" is indeed a factor, but most of these people are using their additional income to good purpose, travel, settling up the mortgage. Some see it as an opportunity to use skills gained over a lifetime to better effect than possible when working under someone else's direction, some are helping kids into better financial positions or as one of my friends put it, "I've now got a chance to pay forward the debt that I incurred when so many people helped me in the past". My mum, 93 next month, is the secretary for the local community hall committee, takes the bookings and payments, keeps the books and has done since 1956. She gets a pretty good honorarium, uses it to go and visit her cousins each year, but the pay is not what motivates her, its just so much a part of her she cant quit.
    There are as many motives as there are people, but its clear that those who stay interested and active live longer, are happier and stay healthier.
    Thats as good a reason as any.

    John Welsford
    All of that is true, but none of it supports Phil's argument about some form of work fee utopia. Not that I'm implying that you suggested it did.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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