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Thread: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

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    Default Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised







    Here is a little something for you to think about.

    Sociologists and Tech Wizards are making scary predictions....



    The future is
    almosthere... it is exciting but scary....




    Predictions:


    1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots Essentially, if your electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.

    2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.

    3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

    4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away.
    Drilling for oil stops.

    5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.

    A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

    1. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

    What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it coming.

    Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

    Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975 The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health,
    autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

    Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

    Welcome to the Exponential Age!!

    2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

    3 Uber is just a software tool,
    they don't own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

    4. Airbnb
    is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

    5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

    6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because ofIBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

    6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

    7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will
    appear for the public Around 2020, the complete industry
    will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

    8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

    1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

    8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

    8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla

    9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

    10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

    11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
    Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

    12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

    13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue.. technology will take care of that strategy.

    14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

    15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
    year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.

    16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

    17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

    18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

    19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

    20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

    20A. If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

    20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

    21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

    22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

    23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source".






    Are we ready







































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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised


    Predictions:


    1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts.
    We're off to a tenuous start.


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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    I before E, except after C.

    I recall that from third grade or so.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    I stopped reading after 30 seconds, figured it would be obsolete in another 20.
    Last edited by wizbang 13; 02-23-2018 at 10:11 PM.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    I before E, except after C.

    I recall that from third grade or so.
    I make a spelling mistake from time to time, that's how you know I'm a real person and not a bot.

    I read the whole thing and came away thinking that if it all comes true the rich will be richer and the poor will starve to death.

    It seems to me that employment, and the need to be employed, are important ingredients to a meaningful life, second only to service to others. In fact, employment is for the most part service to others. Turning almost everything over to computers, or should I say AI, seems like a disastrous strategy. I'm reminded of the Canadian natives, who are given pretty nearly everything they need, not a lot but just enough. My observation is that that strategy robs them of the more important things in life, like self esteem and the need to perform. Not a nice thing to do to someone.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Seems like a lot of lighthearted but deep seated denial going on in the responses so far. I think most of those predictions are pretty right. The big question is how to keep a population that largely doesnt have paid work happy, healthy and fed. Fundamental change to our economic model. And if we do that well enough, how do we get people to work?

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Gib Etheridge View Post
    I make a spelling mistake from time to time, that's how you know I'm a real person and not a bot.

    I read the whole thing and came away thinking that if it all comes true the rich will be richer and the poor will starve to death.

    It seems to me that employment, and the need to be employed, are important ingredients to a meaningful life, second only to service to others. In fact, employment is for the most part service to others. Turning almost everything over to computers, or should I say AI, seems like a disastrous strategy. I'm reminded of the Canadian natives, who are given pretty nearly everything they need, not a lot but just enough. My observation is that that strategy robs them of the more important things in life, like self esteem and the need to perform. Not a nice thing to do to someone.
    What if rather than taking indigenous populations as the "welfare" model, we take the comfortably retired, those who are financially secure, active, socially engaged. Work is not essential to well being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    What if rather than taking indigenous populations as the "welfare" model, we take the comfortably retired, those who are financially secure, active, socially engaged. Work is not essential to well being.
    I wonder what percentage of the population would be described as such in this possible future.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    While the general trend lines might be valid, I have my doubts as to the timelines quoted.

    One can go back to predictions from futurists and many times they just haven't thought the synergies through enough to be accurate. And, of course, there is no way to predict what effect a Black Swan event or series or events may have. For example, Europe was feeling fairly stable until the Black Death showed up. Ooops.

    One thing I am certain of though: unless there is concentrated effort to celebrate fact and education, the future will be populated by a LOT of stupid, ill-informed, and angry people working menial jobs.
    Gerard>
    ​Freeland, WA

    Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Make Lincoln great again.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    What's missing is any explanation as to how a local intermittent non-despatchable electricity source (solar and wind) can RELIABLY supply a 24/7 grid. As for self driving anything electrical or otherwise, just try it when it snowed a foot or two last night, and it's -20 centigrade.

    Pious wishes won't solve engineering problems.

    Tony.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    I saw it estimated that if these technologies were in play now 70% of the workforce would not be needed. Now that is a problem, in another thread a Ted Talk mentioned tumbrils and pitchforks, or in the US AK's and hand guns. So you reduce the birthrate drastically but there's a hiatus, and in India and to an extent China the birthrate is growing. In the west surplus populations will take some time to die off naturally. Societies have to feed, house and occupy them or that society will self destruct.

    Coulbe an interesting time to be alive or maybe not.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    I before E, except after C.

    I recall that from third grade or so.
    Weird Science!
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Looks to me like the road to hell. And not Michigan.

    Meaning will be replaced even further by entertainment or amusement. 4th Industrial Revolution won't end with people remaining particularly necessary. Pick your dystopia of choice, and explore a few variants.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Pessimists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    What if rather than taking indigenous populations as the "welfare" model, we take the comfortably retired, those who are financially secure, active, socially engaged. Work is not essential to well being.
    An interesting concept. Paying people to not work certainly goes against the Good American Christian's work ethic for others. As for one who is comfortably retired, I find myself occupying my time by building Welsford's Tender Behind dinghy. Today I took time away from the build to cook up test batch A1.1.3 of my ongoing quest to perfect a recipe for Orange Cream candies. This batch is the closest yet, but still lacking in punch. I shall box it up and share the results with my neighbors. (All except the one.) I can forgive him, but he would just toss the candy, so I'll not let him waste my efforts.
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Honestly, the next industrial revolution is 3d printing. It will not be too much longer until they are like star trek's replicators. If you can make most anything in the comfort if your own home, why would anybody need to go to work to make stuff?
    "'Education without values, as useful as it is, seems rather to make man a more clever devil."

    C.S. Lewis

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    There's alway immigration………..

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    When we stop burning oil, where will all the plastic come from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    An interesting concept. Paying people to not work certainly goes against the Good American Christian's work ethic for others. As for one who is comfortably retired, I find myself occupying my time by building Welsford's Tender Behind dinghy. Today I took time away from the build to cook up test batch A1.1.3 of my ongoing quest to perfect a recipe for Orange Cream candies. This batch is the closest yet, but still lacking in punch. I shall box it up and share the results with my neighbors. (All except the one.) I can forgive him, but he would just toss the candy, so I'll not let him waste my efforts.
    Yeah I think you have to go back and change some fundamentals. Put a much higher price on the resources which are used to make stuff, whether it be land, minerals, disposal of waste including to the atmosphere, roads etc. Then suddenly the state has a huge dividend, and a duty to distribute that dividend to its owners, the people. All the people become capitalists, we own all the stuff. We sell it to companies who want to use their robots to transform the stuff into goods which we buy, with our dividends. And we have time to get a better education, to pursue music, art, adventure, to think, to write more than a tweet, to spend with our families and communities, to make boats and cakes, to go for walks and grow vegetables, to raise our kids and teach them values like sharing, helping and taking responsibility.

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    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    Weird Science!
    How much do you weigh, neighbor?

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    When we stop burning oil, where will all the plastic come from?
    That rather depends on whether we stop short of burning all of it.

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    While people may not need to work to have purpose in life, they do need a sense of purpose to live a contented one - one that feels meaningful and useful. If we see the massive transformations predicted(assuming no major unforeseen glitches like a major plague or an open visit from the "Space Brothers"! ), we will have to somehow transform an instinctual need that's the result of millions of years of biological/social evolution. That is going to be a major piece of work; a much larger task than replacing humans with AI, or moving around in autonomous electric vehicles.
    So many questions, so little time.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    When we stop burning oil, where will all the plastic come from?
    Don't you mean "When we run out of oil because we burnt it, . . . "
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    I think the list in the OP is massively overwrought. Yes, it does describe real changes that are coming.... but the predictions are wildly over the top.

    Futurists nearly always get the timing wrong. I first saw '2001: A Space Odyssey' in the 70's... but it described a future 30 years forward which looks nothing like what was predicted, in the film. Similarly, Orwell's classic '1984', was written in 1949... and while it was a great book, it simply missed the mark, by miles.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    It is​ much easier to predict the past.

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Orca View Post
    That rather depends on whether we stop short of burning all of it.
    I think it’s pretty much inevitable homo saps will extract as much as possible regardless of the global consequences. While we can reduce our consumption considerably, and will be forced to do so, China, India and Africa will suck it up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I think the list in the OP is massively overwrought. Yes, it does describe real changes that are coming.... but the predictions are wildly over the top.

    Futurists nearly always get the timing wrong. I first saw '2001: A Space Odyssey' in the 70's... but it described a future 30 years forward which looks nothing like what was predicted, in the film. Similarly, Orwell's classic '1984', was written in 1949... and while it was a great book, it simply missed the mark, by miles.
    Just focus on number 8 for an example of the bad timing.
    BTW, engineers at VW and Audi are not terrified of Tesla.

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Most of these predictions can be individually seen as a reasonable extrapolation of present trends but trend predictors most always disregard Malthus which always has the last word. They all depend on the reaction of humans to change which can sometimes be unpredictable. Pattern recognition software is becoming extremely accurate though. Combined with sufficient data input, we humans, in mass, may be very predictable.

    Scary stuff in many ways, regardless of how accurate it is.
    Tom L

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    Soylent Green is people!

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    Default Re: Recieved this email and offering it to be criticised

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    I think it’s pretty much inevitable homo saps will extract as much as possible regardless of the global consequences. While we can reduce our consumption considerably, and will be forced to do so, China, India and Africa will suck it up.
    Nah, China is changing, Africa is exporting rather than using, and India is mostly rural.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tonyr View Post
    What's missing is any explanation as to how a local intermittent non-despatchable electricity source (solar and wind) can RELIABLY supply a 24/7 grid.
    Japan already boasts automated-electricity-supply systems on a pilot-scale that deliver quality service despite the 24/7 requirement. It was also the first nation on the planet to actually reduce it´s 'energy consumption per unit of gdp' by 70% within a few years of the 1973 OPEC oil-price hike.

    It can be done if one needs to do it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tonyr View Post
    Pious wishes won't solve engineering problems.

    Tony.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Nah, China is changing, Africa is exporting rather than using, and India is mostly rural.
    China has a gigantic installed capacity of solar energy, India has currently only 20 GW with a looming target of 100 GW within the next 5 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gib Etheridge View Post
    I wonder what percentage of the population would be described as such in this possible future.
    Interestingly, there is a sort of indicator in New Zealands "retired" population. Now bear in mind that as recently as say, five decades ago, "over 65" was viewed as getting old enough to be pretty much "past it". Today, most middle class people here see getting to that age as a time of change in their lives rather than the beginning of the end. A few years back our country introduced a liveable universal "retirement" income which starts on ones 65th birthday. Everyone gets it. Women and men, married or single, people who've never worked in their lives, very wealthy people, wage earners, investors, trust fund beneficiaries, immigrants. Everyone. Its paid no matter what other income, savings or assets the person has. Reading some of the commentary above, you'd think that the day that income begins, everyone would down tools and relax but the opposite has happened. The percentage of people 65 and over who are in paid work of some kind has risen steeply every year since that was introduced, the upward kink in the graph curve is very clear.
    Some people start tiny businesses, I did some machinery repair work for a lady of a certain age who has a little workshop in what was a single garage, she makes the most exquisite deckchairs that rock like a rocker, all the way from raw stock, upholstery and all. She makes one a day, sells them at a craft market, better than doubles her government retirement income, pays taxes, and is helping her grandkids to buy their houses. She was an accountant in her previous life. An occupation which is being majorly impacted by computer software and which will almost disappear in coming years.
    Some just stay in their specialist occupations, I'm one of those, do my boat design thing as well as some light engineering work on site with spanners, some choose to work in seasonal work, and many of the increasing number of "grey nomads" do that, providing the middle management for the crop growers who are increasingly using temporary permit migrant workers from the Pacific Islands to pick, plant, prune or whatever the fruit and veges, and so on. Many are really adventurous in their choices of occupation, they can afford to take some risks as they have a backup income which will keep coming no matter what. And they are, there are opportunities to work and make a buck popping up that didn't exist a few years back, and its these people who are pioneering those jobs, many of which will change or disappear in the future, but with a guaranteed income, they can afford to take that chance.
    The above is also happening in those parts of the world where a universal basic income is being experimented with, the overall productivity of the population in those areas rises. For sure, there are some who metaphorically just go and get one of those deck chairs and lie back, but for every one who does there are many who either join up with a volunteer organisation who makes the world a better place in some way, who go out and get themselves better educated or trained in a new field then start a brand new career, start a new business, or just take up an interesting job.
    They're not the money sink that was predicted when the universal income for over 65s was introduced. They pay taxes, they spend money which helps businesses survive, they use services and pay for them, they run clubs and volunteer services. They are an increasingly important part of our economy rather than the drain that they were expected to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    When we stop burning oil, where will all the plastic come from?
    Casein, vegetable cellulose, corn starch, there are many sources, most of which are much less environmentally damaging than what we're using today.

    The move away from oil will not only happen with cars, sadly for our planet there is enough oil and coal to do a lot more damage, and I think that we're not moving fast enough in that respect.

    John Welsford
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I think the list in the OP is massively overwrought. Yes, it does describe real changes that are coming.... but the predictions are wildly over the top.

    Futurists nearly always get the timing wrong. I first saw '2001: A Space Odyssey' in the 70's... but it described a future 30 years forward which looks nothing like what was predicted, in the film. Similarly, Orwell's classic '1984', was written in 1949... and while it was a great book, it simply missed the mark, by miles.
    I think that you're right in that the specific predictions in that list may not be correct, but I do think that the prediction of massive change is right. I've watched that movie almost as many times as I've seen Disneys "Fantasia", ( and thats a lot) but when I look back, and look at today, I can see that the things that have made the most impact on our lives could not have been predicted.
    Cellphones with more computing power than the Apollo moon vehicles. GPS accurate enough to navigate driverless cars, hell, cellphones that have GPS with a voice that can tell you where your next turn is, ( think about what thats done to the companies who used to print maps, there were always racks of them in gas stations) digital watches, which the young dont wear any more because their phones are their timepieces as well as diaries and timetables, now who would have predicted that one?
    The list is long, and we never can predict what the ripples of change from a new development will produce.
    I'm watching with real interest, meanwhile, I'm chopping a pocket of rot out of the cabin side of my 45 year old wooden floating home and will seal and repair it with a glue that didn't exist until relatively recently, was yesterday helping the lady who does my clothing repair and alterations to scrape off the adhesive used to hold down the tiles in her kitchen, using a polycrystalline diamond bladed scraper ( artificial diamond, quite cheap these days, will never need sharpening in my lifetime) and a heat gun with a micro computer controlling the temperature of the hot air.
    I'll be setting up for another small boat build in a few days, using a laser level to get it true, cutting the parts with a cordless saw powered by a battery which was only developed a decade ago.
    So many of the things in my every day life didn't exist not very long ago.

    John Welsford.
    Last edited by john welsford; 02-24-2018 at 03:43 PM.
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

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