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Thread: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

  1. #1
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    Default While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    ...it might be a bit sobering to learn that Tesla just posted its worst quarterly loss ever... $675 MILLION.

    The 'earnings' of Tesla stock: -$8.56/share.

    Yes, the price of a stock reflects expectations of future earnings... but try as I may, I just can't see owning a stock with negative earnings and no dividend. Yes, it's a hope for the future... but hopes are not assurances. Even successful companies that make a profit can sometimes have a hard time generating stock price increases.

    All other car companies are chasing the electric car market now, and most of them are all capitalized as well as, or better than, Tesla. Moringstar says that Tesla's 'economic moat' is non-existent, and I believe that.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Friend of mine that is very dialed into the car biz says Tesla is a criminal running a Ponzi scheme. If he canít deliver a healthy number of 3ís and soon Elon might be in trouble.
    Guess we will know soon enough.
    i bought TSLA at $83, and sold at $178. Too soon? Maybe so, but Iím still happy.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Friend of mine that is very dialed into the car biz says Tesla is a criminal running a Ponzi scheme. If he can’t deliver a healthy number of 3’s and soon Elon might be in trouble.
    Guess we will know soon enough.
    i bought TSLA at $83, and sold at $178. Too soon? Maybe so, but I’m still happy.
    You can join Lew Barrett as one of the folks who smartly rode the initial enthusiasm and got out safely, with a VERY handsome profit.... congratulations!

    Of course, in the long run, investing in a company that is bleeding money is less than a zero sum game... and there will be victims.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    I personally could give a FF about their stock. What's important is that he's breaking new ground in many areas - not just cars. As an example, anyone who invested in Edison while he was perfecting the light bulb would've lost badly.

    No - I'm not saying Musk is another Edison.

    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Some people enjoy funding ideas. No need for profit. Or even success.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    You can join Lew Barrett as one of the folks who smartly rode the initial enthusiasm and got out safely, with a VERY handsome profit.... congratulations!

    Of course, in the long run, investing in a company that is bleeding money is less than a zero sum game... and there will be victims.
    Actually, I liked the Tesla concept and product execution, alkthough production expectations have, perhaps somewhat predictably, fallen woefully short. In other words, I thought the product had a lot of merit. What I wasn't prepared for was the shocking market response that caused the stock to zoom far beyond expectations within a few short weeks. Like Mark, I felt the share price was disconnected from reality. It actually shook me up to find out that it had grown seven times over my initial investment within the relative blink of an eye given the fundamentals as respects earnings. I felt the only prudent thing to do was to take money off the table. Had I been holding thousands of shares rather than hundreds, I might still have a few just for laughs but there's no doubt I would still have sold the majority long ago. The main critique I might offer up regarding Musk (as opposed to Tesla the company) is that he tends to be terribly optimistic in respect to time frames versus production realities.

    I hope they are successful as they clearly have advanced the cause of clean energy deployment even taking into account the crazy financial metrics. I don't blame Musk for the share price nor do I hold it against the company. To me, the insane valuations are market driven, not directed from the top. Musk himself has said the price isn't realistic given the company's posture.

    LINK


    I can't blame him for taking advantage of the situation, which I don't think he deserves to be pilloried for. I may have missed something here, but as a visionary, I think he's one of the best. Of course, he has advanced some pretty edgy (one might say 'crackpot') ideas along the way, but like the company namesake, for every good idea he's advanced, there are some that are bound to be a bridge too far. On the other hand, his push to get solar energy off the ground, his hopes for mankind's future in space, his frequent, if rather heavily promoted generosity, make him one of the less disgusting captains of industry in our current pantheon of billionaires.

    In the end, the Tesla stock story isn't really that unprecedented. On the other hand, you really don't want to be holding the Tulip bulbs when the bottom falls out of the bouquet market.
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 02-08-2018 at 09:07 AM.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    I personally could give a FF about their stock. What's important is that he's breaking new ground in many areas - not just cars. As an example, anyone who invested in Edison while he was perfecting the light bulb would've lost badly.
    Do you have documentation on this? It would be very interesting. I can't find anything.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Do you have documentation on this? It would be very interesting. I can't find anything.
    It took him years of trial & error to get a bulb to work. That's all I know & don't know if he was looking for investors at the time.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    ..All other car companies are chasing the electric car market now, and most of them are all capitalized as well as, or better than, Tesla. Moringstar says that Tesla's 'economic moat' is non-existent, and I believe that.
    This is the key factor when investing in new technology companies. Do they have a moat? Are the disruptive of their industry? The answer to both, with regards to Tesla is no. They have been a trader's stock for a long time. I am actually amazed how they can continue to raise money. It does now seem to be approaching the idea of a Ponzi scheme, that may be an exaggeration, but not by much.

    Now, I actually think SpaceX is different. I could see this turning into a very profitable company. Interesting how SpaceX has stayed private through it all, and gotten quite far. That should be a lesson to all of us.



    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barret
    In the end, the Tesla stock story isn't really that unprecedented. On the other hand, you really don't want to be holding the Tulip bulbs when the bottom falls out of the bouquet market.
    I agree, DeLorean Motor Company comes to mind, although he milked the British Government as opposed to the American stockholder.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    It took him years of trial & error to get a bulb to work. That's all I know & don't know if he was looking for investors at the time.
    According to Wikipedia he started working on it in 1878, had a patent by 1880, and in 1880 had a bulb that would last 1200 hours. He add several companies, including the Electric Light Company founded in 1879 with JP Morgan as an investor, throughout the 1870s and merged then into GE in 1889. I suspect the early investors did quite well, it may have taken them a while, but they probably did.

    Now the early investors in Tesla did well, if they sold or will sell before it finally craters, but if they just bought and have held on until it becomes a car manufacturing giant dominating electric car production, they will lose.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    This is the key factor when investing in new technology companies. Do they have a moat? Are the disruptive of their industry? The answer to both, with regards to Tesla is no.
    My point, exactly.

    Big companies, like the traditional car companies, sometimes get 'constipated' and limited in terms of how much they are willing to innovate... which is why Musk had an opportunity, in the first place. By being willing to raise investor capital and spend it profligately for a relatively long time, he could do something that the big ones could or would not: commit to losing a LOT of money, for a very long time... and specifically in Tesla's case, appeal primarily to the very upscale potential market with a car FAR too expensive for true mass production.

    However, that strategy cannot be sustained forever... and the big car companies, while they may be in 'catch up' mode, are far more prepared to compete in a market they did not create. With a sustainability based on their existing sales of conventional cars, and with Tesla opening up the market psychology to an acceptance of the limitations of electric cars (principally, 'range angst'), they're in a great position to benefit from Tesla's early efforts... and produce cars that make a profit.

    Meanwhile, 'profit' is a VERY long way off, for Tesla cars.

    Tesla's latest model, the electric car for the masses, isn't any more competitive than the major car companies' efforts in the same direction. At around $35K or so, the entries from Ford, or Chevy, look not much different, in terms of price and performance.... and they have the advantage of a vastly larger dealer and service network.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Do you have documentation on this? It would be very interesting. I can't find anything.
    I think he will be remembered for his contributions to reduce the cost of access to space.

    But this thread seems to be about Tesla. I know someone who has ordered a Tesla and is waiting for it.
    Will

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    I personally could give a FF about their stock. What's important is that he's breaking new ground in many areas - not just cars. As an example, anyone who invested in Edison while he was perfecting the light bulb would've lost badly.

    No - I'm not saying Musk is another Edison.
    True, to the best of my knowledge, Musk has never electrocuted an elephant in public to try to make a disingenuous point. Musk may be a showman and a gambler, but Edison was a pig.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post

    Now the early investors in Tesla did well, if they sold or will sell before it finally craters, but if they just bought and have held on until it becomes a car manufacturing giant dominating electric car production, they will lose.
    Might be some invested just to get electric cars on the road rather than oil burners, maybe, they might lose some money, but maybe their concern is their grandchildrens health?

    Seems to be a lot of papers written showing electric cars are not so green, given the rare-earths used and mining, let alone copal burning power stations to charge them all. I believe Elon had a bender when Denmark decided to withdraw its electric car subsidy, looks like the company depended on government handouts to work, with a $645 million dollar loss, its not.....

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    According to Wikipedia he started working on it in 1878, had a patent by 1880, and in 1880 had a bulb that would last 1200 hours. He add several companies, including the Electric Light Company founded in 1879 with JP Morgan as an investor, throughout the 1870s and merged then into GE in 1889. I suspect the early investors did quite well, it may have taken them a while, but they probably did.

    Now the early investors in Tesla did well, if they sold or will sell before it finally craters, but if they just bought and have held on until it becomes a car manufacturing giant dominating electric car production, they will lose.
    Edison may have been a bad example. My point was that inventors/innovators can take many years to get to a profitable business - if they ever do.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft View Post
    Might be some invested just to get electric cars on the road rather than oil burners, maybe, they might lose some money, but maybe their concern is their grandchildrens health?
    For people with an environmental conscience, I would think there are far better ways to contribute financially to the cause, other than buying Tesla stock.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    American corporate policy is geared to this quarter and the next. Very few companies show the long-term vision that once built their companies. I remain optimistic for Tesla.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    American corporate policy is geared to this quarter and the next. Very few companies show the long-term vision that once built their companies. I remain optimistic for Tesla.
    If Tesla doesn't start making a profit sometime in the reasonably near future, it's not going to get that chance. It's one thing to take risks... as long as one acknowledges that risks don't always pan out.

    That being said, Bezos used the same risky model for Amazon... and after a long while, the company makes money. It still has a ridiculous P/E ratio, and pays no dividend... but it's an ongoing concern.

    Just consider Teslas 'short interest' of 18%, versus Amazon's 1.2%... a pretty good gauge of major investor sentiment.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    American corporate policy is geared to this quarter and the next. Very few companies show the long-term vision that once built their companies. I remain optimistic for Tesla.
    Is your optimism based on the technology or the company?

    Musk will move on. The Chinese are making some amazing electric cars. Keep your eye on the prize. We may be witnessing an Apple vs IBM era in this industry... we know that played out. technologies and tooling being able to be so nimble - we have to note where brand meets quality scalable production. Not all companies can keep this hectic pace.
    Be wary of your critics, at peace with your decisions, and work hard to be a better man.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    All this means is you don't understand Elon Musk.. and likely never will.

    1st hint - he's already 'made his billions'. He's now "enjoying the fruits of".

    2nd hint - he's putting into action the meme " don't fight dying paradigms, create new ones".

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    He’s doing some interesting stuff with the South Australian government.
    The definition of stupid has got to be the belief that more guns will negate the bloodshed done with guns.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    I hope they're successful but the stock isn't a wise buy in here. I have a lot of admiration for Musk. Unlike a lot of newly minted billionaires, he seems likable. I expect some self promotion, and don't hold it against him. As a rule, he promotes his concepts and not his own person. That's refreshing in an era of blowhards and buffoons.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Some people enjoy funding ideas. No need for profit. Or even success.
    How right you are !

    Very few people realise that there are such people around.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    I hope they're successful but the stock isn't a wise buy in here. I have a lot of admiration for Musk. Unlike a lot of newly minted billionaires, he seems likable. I expect some self promotion, and don't hold it against him. As a rule, he promotes his concepts and not his own person. That's refreshing in an era of blowhards and buffoons.
    I'd love to have a beer with a guy who's sent a car to Mars...
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    I'd love to have a beer with a guy who's sent a car to Mars...
    So far, it's done about a million miles without a service!

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Hoppe View Post
    Is your optimism based on the technology or the company?

    Musk will move on. The Chinese are making some amazing electric cars. Keep your eye on the prize. We may be witnessing an Apple vs IBM era in this industry... we know that played out. technologies and tooling being able to be so nimble - we have to note where brand meets quality scalable production. Not all companies can keep this hectic pace.
    My optimism is based on the need for innovation. The gas engine is dying and Detroit is still fixated on horsepower. This is not a matter of moving the society. The society will move out of necessity and the Musk innovations will be there when it does.

    Also, when my (Japanese-made) car drives its last mile I will be looking at the Tesla very closely. I'm bored with old ideas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Hoppe View Post
    Is your optimism based on the technology or the company?

    Musk will move on. The Chinese are making some amazing electric cars. Keep your eye on the prize. We may be witnessing an Apple vs IBM era in this industry... we know that played out. technologies and tooling being able to be so nimble - we have to note where brand meets quality scalable production. Not all companies can keep this hectic pace.
    Not even close to a good analogy.

    It wasn't apple vs ibm, it was Microsoft vs ibm. Apple was not that significant player until the iPod and iphone. And ibm was wedded to old technology that was prime for disruption. Not so with the car industry.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    When Tesla, or any other manufacturer creates an electric car with an honest 450+ mile range I’ll be a serious buyer for one if it’s priced within reason. The way battery energy density is increasing it’s going to happen.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    When Tesla, or any other manufacturer creates an electric car with an honest 450+ mile range I’ll be a serious buyer for one if it’s priced within reason. The way battery energy density is increasing it’s going to happen.
    He has 1-hour recharging stations and a 200-mile range, I believe. So, a bite of lunch and a talk while recharging every 4 hours...

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    I personally could give a FF about their stock. What's important is that he's breaking new ground in many areas - not just cars. As an example, anyone who invested in Edison while he was perfecting the light bulb would've lost badly.

    No - I'm not saying Musk is another Edison.

    I’d like to know why the gov’t program for launchers aren’t using reusable boosters?

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Do you have documentation on this? It would be very interesting. I can't find anything.
    Edison was doing quite well with his early inventions, notably the phonograph, before he started working on the light bulb. J.P. Morgan backed him on that effort. He was a very successful businessman with many of his patents, never lacking in capital or backers. It's worth noting that his electric-car battery, and option on the Detroit Electric, has been improved recently by about 50%.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    He has 1-hour recharging stations and a 200-mile range, I believe. So, a bite of lunch and a talk while recharging every 4 hours...
    So for my trip home of 1283 miles that would be 6+ hours of charge time.
    Better add another day to the trip.
    Allan of the Grove
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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Not even close to a good analogy.

    It wasn't apple vs ibm, it was Microsoft vs ibm. Apple was not that significant player until the iPod and iphone. And ibm was wedded to old technology that was prime for disruption. Not so with the car industry.

    Sent from my BLN-L24 using Tapatalk
    I believe that assumption is incorrect. I know and saw up close and personally what this evolution was and met nearly all the players that changed our world. IBM was the maker of machines. IBM had a clunky system and everyone knew it. Apple held the consumer brand that held the UNIX computer and the software which made for computer illiterate and lazy to feel creative and productive. Apple positioned themselves as the bauhaus product changing the marketplace. Microsoft took to building pc software.


    Apple has been highly regarded as one of the most influential companies of all time. Through the tireless efforts and creative vision of Steve Jobs, and others, almost every company today asks the question “How would Apple do this?” when creating their product, website, or service offering.


    But many of the same ideals that Apple represents directly come from the teachings of the Bauhaus. One of the quotes of is Jobs’ famous “Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.” This quote, however, shows specifically how much Jobs, and Apple as a whole created designer user friendly products much like Tesla has been today. it is not by coincidence that Tesla has chosen the same designers and business models that apple did.


    The failure of Apple after the first large scale computer bubble has been obscured by the rise of Apples iPod, phone and taking advantage of the music market. It is too easy to for many to dismiss 1984 and the rise of the Apple computer to a new generation who wanted to be part of something more than word processing and spread sheets for business.




    Be wary of your critics, at peace with your decisions, and work hard to be a better man.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Hoppe View Post
    I believe that assumption is incorrect. I know and saw up close and personally what this evolution was and met nearly all the players that changed our world. IBM was the maker of machines. IBM had a clunky system and everyone knew it. Apple held the consumer brand that held the UNIX computer and the software which made for computer illiterate and lazy to feel creative and productive. Apple positioned themselves as the bauhaus product changing the marketplace. Microsoft took to building pc software.


    Apple has been highly regarded as one of the most influential companies of all time. Through the tireless efforts and creative vision of Steve Jobs, and others, almost every company today asks the question “How would Apple do this?” when creating their product, website, or service offering.


    But many of the same ideals that Apple represents directly come from the teachings of the Bauhaus. One of the quotes of is Jobs’ famous “Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.” This quote, however, shows specifically how much Jobs, and Apple as a whole created designer user friendly products much like Tesla has been today. it is not by coincidence that Tesla has chosen the same designers and business models that apple did.


    The failure of Apple after the first large scale computer bubble has been obscured by the rise of Apples iPod, phone and taking advantage of the music market. It is too easy to for many to dismiss 1984 and the rise of the Apple computer to a new generation who wanted to be part of something more than word processing and spread sheets for business.
    Be wary of your critics, at peace with your decisions, and work hard to be a better man.

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    Default Re: While most people are impressed with Elon Musk....

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    He has 1-hour recharging stations and a 200-mile range, I believe. So, a bite of lunch and a talk while recharging every 4 hours...
    I appears my wife thinks little of my present driving skills so we fly most of the time now.

    When I was young, we used to drive 400 miles and spend 20 minutes to gas up and eat in the car. Now, I am only good for 200 miles. So 20 minutes to gas up. And we eat after some of the stops.

    With a Tesla we would lose a couple hours of driving each day. That is a big deal for a lot of people. Especially when trying to outrun the snow.
    Life is complex.

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