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Thread: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

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    Default ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern


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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Perfect launch and perfect landing. More improvements in the onboard cams showed the first stage landing beautifully!

    Well done!

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    C'mon, mdh, what kind og conspiracy theorist are you? That is only what they want to believe.
    Steve Martinsen

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by SMARTINSEN View Post
    C'mon, mdh, what kind og conspiracy theorist are you? That is only what they want to believe.

    +1!
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Ooops! I don't recall hearing of such frequent 'losses/failures' when NASA ran things.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Effluvium! What better way to thicken the veil of secrecy surrounding this mission?

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Ooops! I don't recall hearing of such frequent 'losses/failures' when NASA ran things.
    Your memory is faulty.



    List of spaceflight fails.

    And this is only the ones they couldn't hide from us.

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    OK guys, there's your ray of sunshine for the day.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Well, Donns effluvium aside.... the data that I've found is mixed - I found this reference, suggesting NASA had closer to a 98+ percent success rate, but that appears to be all launches - including shuttle missions. I don't see anything addressing only payload launches, such as satellites.

    https://space.stackexchange.com/ques...-nasa-launches


    Maybe someone has more recent data on SpaceX?

    http://beta.latimes.com/business/la-...htmlstory.html

    It's one thing to have a satellite lost, quite another for loss of a manned flight.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Ooops! I don't recall hearing of such frequent 'losses/failures' when NASA ran things.
    Spacex has some pretty stunning successes. They may have failures as well but we are talking about a fairly risky biz and they are pushing the envelope on much of it. Care to list how many boosters NASA has landed vertically after a launch? That's a remarkable achievement and is becoming routine. I'm glad to see the amount they are bringing to the space sector.
    Tom

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    Spacex has some pretty stunning successes. They may have failures as well but we are talking about a fairly risky biz and they are pushing the envelope on much of it. Care to list how many boosters NASA has landed vertically after a launch? That's a remarkable achievement and is becoming routine. I'm glad to see the amount they are bringing to the space sector.
    I'm not being critical of SpaceX, but failure rates are actually important. NASA was in the game for a long time; presumably, they had learned a bit. How much of what Space X is doing, is re-hashing that same learning curve?
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    A rather long list of mission failures here. Not just NASA launches though, so it'll take a little sorting. . .
    http://claudelafleur.qc.ca/Scfam-failures.html
    Nosce te ipsum

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    NASA was in the game a long time when they had big failures. One of your linked articles had the falcon 9 with a 93% failure rate as opposed to the industry's 95%. Is anyone else recovering boosters while they are at it? Are they trying new tech and upping the game or sticking with the tried and true. Innovation will come at a cost.
    Tom

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    From what I understand, it remains to be seen if this failure was actually a fault of SpaceX's bits, or Northrop Grumman's payload adapter.

    In any event, re: Tom's post above, it's worth bearing in mind that a 93% vs 95% success rate seems very close, but actually represents 40% more failures. Of course, SpaceX is in it's early days, so it's likely their success rate will improve. But it's going to have to because reusing boosters probably doesn't cover the costs of a significantly larger number of failures for payloads that are worth 9 and 10 figures (let alone, for manned flights).

    Dave
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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by xflow7 View Post
    From what I understand, it remains to be seen if this failure was actually a fault of SpaceX's bits, or Northrop Grumman's payload adapter.

    In any event, re: Tom's post above, it's worth bearing in mind that a 93% vs 95% success rate seems very close, but actually represents 40% more failures. Of course, SpaceX is in it's early days, so it's likely their success rate will improve. But it's going to have to because reusing boosters probably doesn't cover the costs of a significantly larger number of failures for payloads that are worth 9 and 10 figures (let alone, for manned flights).

    Dave
    But are we comparing apples to apples regarding the risk of launch success. I would expect higher failure rates for newer technology. We need to make sure the comparison is valid.
    Tom

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Why would you expect higher failure rates? The innovation of recovering the boosters is great - but that's not the 'failures' we're talking about. As well, 'improvements' and innovation should translate to more success, not less. If still working out the bugs, maybe not put a multi-million dollar payload at risk.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Why would you expect higher failure rates? The innovation of recovering the boosters is great - but that's not the 'failures' we're talking about. As well, 'improvements' and innovation should translate to more success, not less. If still working out the bugs, maybe not put a multi-million dollar payload at risk.
    I don't know if that's the failures we are talking about or not. I haven't dug into the data. Are those included in their failure rate. Are we comparing the same thing? If the 95% rate for spacex is accurate it isn't far off nasa's record, but again, it depends on what data is being looked at. is there a comprehensive comparison? This was in one of the links you posted.

    I'm having a hard time just sorting out NASA, but here's the statistics for every launch, using the source information found here. This gives the following breakdown, by decade

    1950's 43.6%
    1960's 85.1%
    1970's 93.5%
    1980's 96.0%
    1990's 93.9%
    2000's 94.7%
    2010's 94.7%
    Tom

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    I'm not being critical of SpaceX, but failure rates are actually important. NASA was in the game for a long time; presumably, they had learned a bit. How much of what Space X is doing, is re-hashing that same learning curve?
    In anything we do, we stand on the shoulders of those who went before us.

    John Welsford
    An expert is but a beginner with experience.

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    I wasn't aware that Space X simply succeeded NASA. They passed on their expertise???
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    I'm old enough to remember newsreels at the movies. Parents used to stick us at the Sat afternoon double features. Ill bet I saw every Redstone failure in bleach & white.

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Yeah. Early record was 'interesting'; later years, excellent. So hopefully Space X is 'building' off that knowledge. Did NASA engineers jump to them?
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    https://www.space.com/39328-spacex-s...e=notification

    Looks like spaceX says it went off perfect and failure reports are wrong.
    Tom

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    That's what I read earlier, the failure may be in the NG supplied fairing.

    According to Eric Berger of Ars Technica, Zuma was assigned a number in the satellite catalog Space-Track.org, which implies it was able to make at least one orbit of Earth — but it could have still been attached to the second stage and failed to detach after that point. Berger noted that the payload adapter connecting the stage to the payload and fairing was provided by Northrop Grumman, so a potential separation problem could track back to that company's failure. A Northrop Grumman representative told Space.com the company cannot comment on classified missions.
    Greg H. - from before the great crash, 20th century member 108

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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    But are we comparing apples to apples regarding the risk of launch success. I would expect higher failure rates for newer technology. We need to make sure the comparison is valid.
    Oh, don't get me wrong. I absolutely agree that it's important to compare like-for-like. A failed stage landing is not comparable to losing a payload. Not sure if the current (publicly) available data allows that or not. Just pointing out that when you get up towards the high end of efficiencies, success-rates, etc. apparently small differences in performance are often not as small as they seem. And the only thing that is new technology with SpaceX is re-use of the rockets. As far as I know everything up to stage separation is essentially prior art.

    But whatever the case it's a bit moot at this point anyway since SpaceX's mission count at this point is probably too small to have any reasonable confidence interval on an estimate of success-rate that's over 90%.

    Dave
    Sooty Tern Build Thread: Another Tern in the Works!
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    Default Re: ZUMA Launch Window Opens at 8 Eastern

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    https://www.space.com/39328-spacex-s...e=notification

    Looks like spaceX says it went off perfect and failure reports are wrong.
    Wake up sheeple.
    Steve Martinsen

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