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Thread: WOW- DOW over 25!!

  1. #36
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    I have never been hired by a poor person. Unfortunately there must be someone with money in order to start a business and hire us so we can make money. Since our risk in the business venture is lower than the person who started the business it is fair they have a bigger share in the rewards. There is no incentive for the business owner if there are no rewards. The higher the risk the higher the rewards. That is what capitalism is about and what makes America great..............Again.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Mildly aggressive might be more accurate. With a 3-5 year horizon, I made between 45% and 65% before cashing out, according to plan.
    Comments like that are ambiguous. You could mean the total return over the several years or you could mean the annualized return.

    As total returns over the last 3-4 years they about the same as ETFs of the growth components of either the Nasdaq or S&P 500. (at least according to returns on the ETF shares I purchased in that time frame.) Hardly aggressive portfolios.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    I made between 45% and 65% before cashing out, according to plan.

    I'm sure he means since trump was elected.

    LMAO
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    I made between 45% and 65% before cashing out, according to plan.

    I'm sure he means since trump was elected. Like everyone else has.

    LMAO
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

  5. #40
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by redeye1962 View Post
    I have never been hired by a poor person. Unfortunately there must be someone with money in order to start a business and hire us so we can make money. Since our risk in the business venture is lower than the person who started the business it is fair they have a bigger share in the rewards. There is no incentive for the business owner if there are no rewards. The higher the risk the higher the rewards. That is what capitalism is about and what makes America great..............Again.
    Like most people you overestimate the risk of business failure. And you underestimate the assets those who start businesses have.

    But it is easier to simply look at successful businesses and ask if they can afford to pay the workers more. Walmart is a reasonable example. It has been used before in this context.

    We can look at any of the tech companies. Labor is a small component of their costs. That class of companies can afford to pay more.


    Much of the pay problem is that a large number of companies cannot now or at some time in the near future afford to pay higher wages.
    Life is complex.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by redeye1962 View Post
    I have never been hired by a poor person. Unfortunately there must be someone with money in order to start a business and hire us so we can make money. Since our risk in the business venture is lower than the person who started the business it is fair they have a bigger share in the rewards. There is no incentive for the business owner if there are no rewards. The higher the risk the higher the rewards. That is what capitalism is about and what makes America great..............Again.
    .

    Our libs told us trump would have been smarter keeping his money in the stock market..

    In other words let someone else take the risks while they do nothing..

  7. #42
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Anyone who thinks any President deserves any credit for the stock market is wrong.

    We GROSSLY overstate the power of Presidents and Prime Ministers and Kings. There is NO statistically significant correlation, much less causation, between Presidential tenure and stock market performance. Yeah, someone will post one of those cutesy Facebook "infographics". Show me a peer reviewed journal article.


  8. #43
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    No journals handy, but here's some sound research, and an even-handed summary of it --

    https://www.forbes.com/2004/07/21/cx...l#54dcd12c6045

    https://www.forbes.com/global/2004/0...l#715dc83766a8

    It notes the solid correlation between Democratic administrations and good economic results... without attempting to ascribe causality.

    And it reinforces my earlier comments about how the Dow is but one small measure of a certain aspect of 'good economic performance'.
    David G
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  9. #44
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Hmmmm... if you made 45-65% in a 3-5 year horizon, I don't think I'd call that a 'plan', per se... but I'd say there was a substantial element of 'luck' involved.
    I sold our Ford stock years ago. Very glad about that.



    Did I claim any particular omniscience? I did a lot of research, graphed trends, etc. Basic due diligence for investing. I looked for strong growth stocks with P/E in a low to moderate range, and strong positions in their respective markets. Naturally, there's an element of luck, just as there is in farming. But you have to plant the right seed in the right place.

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Comments like that are ambiguous. You could mean the total return over the several years or you could mean the annualized return.

    As total returns over the last 3-4 years they about the same as ETFs of the growth components of either the Nasdaq or S&P 500. (at least according to returns on the ETF shares I purchased in that time frame.) Hardly aggressive portfolios.
    Plenty aggressive for people on the verge of retirement, I reckon. Also for people who won't invest in sin stocks, weapons, dishonest banking, or fossil fuels, which can be the source of high individual returns (at a collective cost to humanity). I'd rather be able to sleep at night.

    FYI, the returns are from Google Finance, for the term of the investment. The largest position was started four years ago, with two purchases since, and a total return (NAV and dividends) of about 67% to date. As near as I can figure, it's yielded well over 20% per year. The two most recent were purchased on the same date two years ago, with respective returns of 47% and 45%, which translates to an annual return of 23.5% and 22.5% annually.

    We still have several index funds. Rather few have approached the annual rate of return of the stocks I just sold.

    Any further supercilious comments?
    Last edited by Chip-skiff; 01-06-2018 at 01:24 AM.
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  10. #45

    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale R. Hamilton View Post
    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.

    Mr. Dale,

    Sir, from one guy with a captains hat to another. I must say, you do dang good work.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Anyone who thinks any President deserves any credit for the stock market is wrong.

    We GROSSLY overstate the power of Presidents and Prime Ministers and Kings. There is NO statistically significant correlation, much less causation, between Presidential tenure and stock market performance.
    People look for justification of their investment models, decisions, and the results.
    Life is complex.

  12. #47
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    About half of the current US adult population of 250 million or so have no investments in the stock market. It not that they don’t want to invest in their future, it’s because the corporations that employ them pay so little. While amassing record amounts of cash that they hide abroad and paying their CEOs record setting salaries.

  13. #48
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Plenty aggressive for people on the verge of retirement, I reckon. Also for people who won't invest in sin stocks, weapons, dishonest banking, or fossil fuels, which can be the source of high individual returns (at a collective cost to humanity). I'd rather be able to sleep at night.

    FYI, the returns are from Google Finance, for the term of the investment. The largest position was started four years ago, with two purchases since, and a total return (NAV and dividends) of about 67% to date. As near as I can figure, it's yielded well over 20% per year. The two most recent were purchased on the same date two years ago, with respective returns of 47% and 45%, which translates to an annual return of 23.5% and 22.5% annually.

    We still have several index funds. Rather few have approached the annual rate of return of the stocks I just sold.

    Any further supercilious comments?
    I thought you did very well in that stock picking thread a while ago. You seem to be a knowledgeable investor. As such I did the obvious math of annualizing the returns and time periods you gave. And compared those numbers to the information on funds I invested in that time period.

    Based on the new information I will make a supercilious comment. I keep track of 3 indexes and my investments - 7 mutual funds, 2 ETFs, and 2 stocks. I have 2 year returns for them - 1/1/16 to 1/1/18. Those returns range from 30-54%. My particular mix of investments returned about 36%. About the same as the DOW or NASDAQ. Better than the S&P500.

    Overall I am a pretty poor investor. You seem to do better.
    Life is complex.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    About half of the current US adult population of 250 million or so have no investments in the stock market. It not that they don’t want to invest in their future, it’s because the corporations that employ them pay so little. While amassing record amounts of cash that they hide abroad and paying their CEOs record setting salaries.
    You might look at the graphs at this site http://www.fourpillarfreedom.com/vis...ricans-by-age/ . There are a number of other sites that present similar age range data.

    While I agree with your comment that employers should pay more, it appears that age has a good deal to with with lack of assets. My opinion is that the young will grow into their assets. Either by saving or by inheriting.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale R. Hamilton View Post
    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.
    I don't see any connection to people from Poland.

    Am I missing something here?
    A society predicated on the assumption that everyone in it should want to get rich is not well situated to become either ethical or imaginative.

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  17. #52
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    It must be nice to not live from Social Security check to Social Security check.

    But it's profoundly arrogant to think that this conversation is not a product of enormous self-absorption.

    Whose responsibility is it that more than half the US population will never have the free cash to risk a market crash?
    A society predicated on the assumption that everyone in it should want to get rich is not well situated to become either ethical or imaginative.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Al Capitan View Post
    Yep Obama even thanked himself.

    He spent 8 hard years making sure the market took off like a rocket, the very month AFTER the Dems lost the election. Makes sense.

    In hindsight shouldn't he have done that in year 7?
    Have you got a clue as to what you're talking about? Have you EVER taken a look at a graph of the market over the course of Obama's presidency?

    Gentlemen, we have yet another sock puppet here in the bilge.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  19. #54
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    I looked at the median net worth chart in the first link. It shows the median has increased over the last 6 years. As I said earlier there is a belief that people are going into debt to fund their retirement accounts.

    The chart does lead to the question: Why has the median net worth not regained the peak value of 2007? There is a simple answer. People are stupid. They find reasons to underperform the markets. (There are other reports that indicate the underperformance is widespread.)

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/most...he-sp-500.html
    The average investor on Openfolio had a gain of roughly 5 percent in 2016. That lagged the nearly 12 percent total return of the S&P 500, which includes dividends, by more than 7 percentage points last year.
    Life is complex.

  20. #55
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by elf View Post
    I don't see any connection to people from Poland.

    Am I missing something here?
    .

    No ,poles love trump.

  21. #56
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Have you got a clue as to what you're talking about? Have you EVER taken a look at a graph of the market over the course of Obama's presidency?

    Gentlemen, we have yet another sock puppet here in the bilge.
    .

    You forgot to ask him if he has a wood boat and what college he went to.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    One bad thing to consider is how high will it go and will it create a bubble. It is kind of like real estate............ask California and other states that have an over inflated prices on real estate. One thing Trump did lie about is I will never get sick of winning.

  23. #58
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Plenty aggressive for people on the verge of retirement, I reckon.

    Any further supercilious comments?
    I had and still have a bit of difficulty understanding why you think this is aggressive. Aggressiveness is usually related to risk not return. Risk is often used as a synonym for volatility.

    Historically longer time frames have less risk than shorter time frames. I typically look at a 30+ year time frame when investing. So I guess your investments are more aggressive than mine.

    On the other hand, the expected 30 year return on the S&P 500 is near 10%. Anyone who has a need to get get more than 10% might need a more aggressive approach with the risk of being less able to meet their need.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    I had and still have a bit of difficulty understanding why you think this is aggressive. Aggressiveness is usually related to risk not return. Risk is often used as a synonym for volatility.

    Historically longer time frames have less risk than shorter time frames. I typically look at a 30+ year time frame when investing. So I guess your investments are more aggressive than mine.

    On the other hand, the expected 30 year return on the S&P 500 is near 10%. Anyone who has a need to get get more than 10% might need a more aggressive approach with the risk of being less able to meet their need.
    It felt risky to me. Will you be alive in 30 years? I won't.

    I invested to earn enough money for our needs, not to chalk up high numbers, and it worked out very well. We still have quite a lot of skin in the game, and now have the freedom of not having to sell our remaining stake under unfavorable conditions.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! óCole Porter

  25. #60
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    No journals handy, but here's some sound research, and an even-handed summary of it --

    https://www.forbes.com/2004/07/21/cx...l#54dcd12c6045

    https://www.forbes.com/global/2004/0...l#715dc83766a8

    It notes the solid correlation between Democratic administrations and good economic results... without attempting to ascribe causality.

    And it reinforces my earlier comments about how the Dow is but one small measure of a certain aspect of 'good economic performance'.
    "We found that the S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 14.1% per year under Democratic presidents since April 1945, and 11.8% under Republicans."

    Is this a statistically significant difference? There's a reason why this is a Forbes article and not a peer-reviewed journal.

    How about this: correlation between the U.S. S&P500, Japanese Nikkei, German DAX and U.K. FTSE 100. This graph is only since 2006, but the political leadership has varied between the four during this period. Do Democratic Presidents get credit and Republican Presidents get blame for the performance of the Nikkei, DAX and FTSE? Of course not.



    This matters. Republicans cut taxes and deregulate to goose the economy. Democrats cut taxes, spend money, and regulate trying to do the same. All of it is footprints on the beach. And all of it distracts us from what governments ought to do - provide for the common defense and common welfare, and provide justice and opportunity as citizens pursue happiness. Instead, politicians like to pretend they can actually move the economy. They can't, left or right.


  26. #61
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Republicans cut taxes and deregulate to goose the economy. Democrats cut taxes, spend money, and regulate trying to do the same. All of it is footprints on the beach. And all of it distracts us from what governments ought to do - provide for the common defense and common welfare, and provide justice and opportunity as citizens pursue happiness. Instead, politicians like to pretend they can actually move the economy. They can't, left or right.

    I don't like to argue economics since I have little interest and even less knowledge but maybe context matters? Obama's achievement (I won't and can't argue if it was Obama's achievement) was to arrive on the scene after a series of very damaging events nearly took us down. If Obama didn't have an effect, perhaps he at least brought a calming influence and his good luck with him. Trump rides in on the crest of the refreshed wave. Maybe neither can take credit, but one of them inherited markets in working condition, and one in deplorable shape. The question isn't if Republicans shouldn't get credit when it's due. But if it's due.
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  27. #62
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Trump delivering on his long-predicted economic degradation --

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...142123574.html


    Many forecasters—including Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Citibank and Macroeconomic Advisers—predicted the economy would quake, and stocks fall, if Trump won. But those analyses were based on Trump doing what he said he was going to do, which Trump hasn’t, so far.

    As a reminder, while campaigning, Trump said he’d imposed tariffs of 45% on all imports from China and 35% on imports from Mexico. Trump hasn’t done either of those things, so far, but he’s now testing the waters on tariffs for the first time, with his proposed steel and aluminum duties. Trump also said he’d revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, or withdraw from it completely (work in progress, outcome unknown). And he vowed to kick 11 million undocumented immigrants out of the country and reduce the number of legal immigrants (also works in progress).

    When economists tried to estimate how those policies, if enacted, would affect the economy, the outlook was gloomy. Moody’s Analytics found that the economy would enter a recession starting in 2019 and lose 2.8 million jobs that year alone. Oxford Economics predicted Trump’s plan would cost the economy 4 million jobs and slash $1 trillion in economic output. Citibank said a Trump victory would induce a global recession.

    None of that carnage has occurred. But the main reason it hasn’t is that Trump has only done things that stimulate the economy, so far. He hasn’t done things he called for while campaigning that are likely to depress the economy—until now.

    The nonprofit group Trade Partnership analyzed Trump’s metal tariffs and found they’d generate 33,000 new jobs in steel and aluminum, but kill 179,000 jobs in other industries, because of the higher prices manufacturers buying those metals would have to pay. So a net loss of 146,000 jobs, just from two tariffs. That doesn’t include any ramifications of retaliatory tariffs by trading partners.
    David G
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  28. #63
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale R. Hamilton View Post
    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.
    I doubt actually remember when the Dow was below 25. Also resent the comment stereotyping those of us with Polish heritage. Enough with the light-bulb jokes.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Trump delivering on his long-predicted economic degradation --
    So we agree that Trump is an idiot. Degraded from what? It appears that few know if they personally or the country as a whole is above or below any long term expectation.

    Perhaps the comments in the article are still incorrect. The market indices are up 20-35% since Jan 17. We could have a really big correction and still be doing very well. The market could go down by 50% and I would still be above my long term goals of 10% annualized investment growth. The S&P 500 seems to need a bit of a boost in a few years to maintain the 30 year ROI above 10%.

    I don't know what these organizations' prediction history is. But I am sure they shy away from saying if we are above or below their long term ideas of where the economy should end up. When they put their prediction history out there, we can judge if they are reliable or not.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan McCosh View Post
    I doubt actually remember when the Dow was below 25. Also resent the comment stereotyping those of us with Polish heritage. Enough with the light-bulb jokes.
    Thank you.

  31. #66
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    The point is - D.Tramp has not yet enacted his promised policies - the ones that analysts said would be detrimental. But he's now starting to do so. And all the predictions suggest overall poor results from his retarded, outdated, notions.

    When economists tried to estimate how those policies, if enacted, would affect the economy, the outlook was gloomy. Moody’s Analytics found that the economy would enter a recession starting in 2019 and lose 2.8 million jobs that year alone. Oxford Economics predicted Trump’s plan would cost the economy 4 million jobs and slash $1 trillion in economic output. Citibank said a Trump victory would induce a global recession.

    None of that carnage has occurred. But the main reason it hasn’t is that Trump has only done things that stimulate the economy, so far. He hasn’t done things he called for while campaigning that are likely to depress the economy—until now.

    And - as an aside - the tax reductions he's so proud of WILL have a mild stimulative effect. So they don't factor into the analysis. Mild is good. Mild is likely to, nonetheless, be too much. But that stimulus will only be for the short term. And they come at precisely the wrong time in the business cycle. Heating things up when we should be looking to ease into a 'soft landing' at the end of a protracted period of growth (thanks Obama for reversing the Bush Recession so effectively) does two primary things. First - it increases the odds of a harsh and ugly downturn later. Second - it is likely to extend the period of growth. And since voters tend to favor the party in power during economic good times... the R's are hoping to benefit. After that... they don't seem to care. Huge deficits? They apparently no longer matter, as long as there's some short-term partisan gain to be had.
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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