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Thread: WOW- DOW over 25!!

  1. #1
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    Default WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale R. Hamilton View Post
    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.
    The dow was up record numbers under Obama. What specifically has Trump done to have an effect on it? It is following the same trajectory it was on prior to him taking office.
    Tom

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    1) The market has been on a continuous upwards trajectory since 2009, appreciating at around 15% per year (based on the S&P 500). Trump had absolutely nothing to do with it, up to last month.

    2) The Trump tax bill has blown some sunshine up the collective skirts of the investment community and corporations, since passage, so it's natural that the market would have responded positively. It has NOTHING to do with the fundamentals; corporations have been doing very well for quite a while. The bump, if there is one, is simply a reflection of investor expectations... and the likelihood of stock buybacks and dividend increases... NOT, as Trump has claimed, a surge in domestic investment in manufacturing.

    3) That which goes up, inevitably goes down.... especially when 'irrational exuberance' prevails. Alan Greenspan said that before the 2008 collapse, but few believed him.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Don’t care who takes the credit.

    I’ll take the cash.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    The dow was up record numbers under Obama. What specifically has Trump done to have an effect on it? It is following the same trajectory it was on prior to him taking office.
    Dude, Obama is black, that is all.
    In the US this perverted idea of “blood and soil” over “constitutional principles” is the most radical and anti-democratic and anti-Conservative idea I have heard in my lifetime.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Don’t care who takes the credit.

    I’ll take the cash.
    Me too, but how long will this trajectory last?
    Tom

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    Me too, but how long will this trajectory last?
    It can't last forever.

    At the very least, there will be a 'market correction' in the offing... my guess: sometime in the middle of 2018.

    The very worst'? Impossible to say.

    The problem: ain't nobody who can predict when it will happen, or how deep it will be.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    This thread is reminiscent of Dow 14000 though.....
    Tom

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Give Obama credit for most of this.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    Me too, but how long will this trajectory last?
    A nuclear conflict would likely throw a damper on the markets.
    Trumps impeachment? As long as Pence takes the helm it’ll be a blip.

    A total rout by Dems in November? I’d cash out and push back from the table for a bit.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    The 1% is celebrating and the COE's and those who benefit are laughing.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Ask yourself how much blame our Fake POTUS will take if or when the bull market tanks.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey. The higher the market return, the greater the polarization of the wealth. Most of us here are fortunate enough to be benefiting from it. Not so more than half of the population.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dale R. Hamilton View Post
    Glorious- all of us who invest in America are making money- yet the AOL newsfeed today says President Trump's approval rating is at a all time low. I don't believe this- fake news- there are the same poles that predicted he would loose the election.
    Credit where credit is due!
    Coal mining deaths surge in 2017 after hitting record low

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...low/998410001/
    Have a Holly Jolly Christmas🎅

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    More than half of Americans, 52 percent, are currently not investing in the stock market—either by buying individual stocks or mutual funds, or through a retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a new Bankrate.com survey. The higher the market return, the greater the polarization of the wealth. Most of us here are fortunate enough to be benefiting from it. Not so more than half of the population.
    Yet, those who are benefiting for the stock market complain about how little their share is and how much they worry about the "market correction."

    I realize I have much more than my share.

    I also realize this "market correction" or "crash" is something people with investments make up to curry sympathy for their "loss." A 40% drop in the value of my investments would still give me 10% return over the last 7 years. A "market correction" would leave everyone with an above average return for the last 7 years.

    http://www.fourpillarfreedom.com/vis...ricans-by-age/ has an interesting interactive graph. As people age they accumulate assets.
    http://news.gallup.com/poll/211052/s...er-income.aspx A lot of people got scared out of the markets around 2008. That was a big economic mistake.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Too Little Time View Post
    Yet, those who are benefiting for the stock market complain about how little their share is and how much they worry about the "market correction."

    I realize I have much more than my share.

    I also realize this "market correction" or "crash" is something people with investments make up to curry sympathy for their "loss." A 40% drop in the value of my investments would still give me 10% return over the last 7 years. A "market correction" would leave everyone with an above average return for the last 7 years.

    http://www.fourpillarfreedom.com/vis...ricans-by-age/ has an interesting interactive graph. As people age they accumulate assets.
    http://news.gallup.com/poll/211052/s...er-income.aspx A lot of people got scared out of the markets around 2008. That was a big economic mistake.
    Where are those complaints? I haven't seen that. I'm certainly not complaining about my share. Even with market corrections my returns have been pretty good, but I would prefer to be out of the market prior to the correction. If I'm not I'll ride it out like I have before.

    You seem to make a lot of suppositions or generalizations. Maybe you weren't referring to posters here.
    Tom

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    I think this thread would benefit from some graphs of the djia.


    First - for context - the G.W. Bush years, with annotation --



    Note that as Bush took office in 2001, the tech bubble was already bursting. Although 9/11 resulted in a sharp, short-term drop, the overall decline from the tech bubble bursting could be seen as bottoming out in September, 2002 when the average went as low as 7500. There was a trend upward just after 9/11 when military action was taken in Afghanistan.


    The real trend back up in the market began in March, 2003, as the US invaded Iraq. The old saw "war is good for business" holds sway yet again. Note the steady increase in shares traded (the bottom bar graph), beginning as the market began to level a bit in the middle of 2005. Then, as the market peaked last summer, there is a very serious jump in shares traded as the current decline began. Although the losses in the past week are steep, they appear to me to fit in the overall trend of the "correction" that began last summer.


    Not that I’m paranoid or anything, but I think a pretty strong argument could be made that the "big boys" in the market decided last summer that the candy store was closing and it was time to pull out and move their assets elsewhere. I sure hope an Obama administration decides to follow this money and see just where it went. I’m betting on offshore banks.




    Then, let's pick it up starting with Obama's first term --


    When President Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slumped to 7,949.09, the lowest inaugural performance for the Dow since its creation. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq took similar hits, dropping 5.3 and 5.8 percent, respectively, and fourth quarter earnings reports were on track to drop more than 20 percent over the previous year's figures. Bank stocks in particular were hit quite hard, with the sector in general declining by 30 percent. Bank of America Corp. dropped 29 percent, and Citigroup Inc. sank a comparatively gentle 20 percent.



    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...ook-office.asp

    While the economic backslide may have seemed to indicate that the America public was less than confident in their newly elected leader, the dip was instead widely credited to continued lack of confidence in the failing economy left behind by the previous administration. Under former President Bush, the stock market took a 2.3 percent fall on an annualized basis, reflecting the 1 percent increase achieved during his first four years and the 5.5 percent decline suffered during his second term. If nothing else, the historic lows of the Bush administration and the shaky beginnings of the Obama years definitely indicate an economy in flux.
    Good news, however, was not too long in coming. Despite its inauspicious economic beginnings, the Obama administration has overseen an impressive upswing in the stock market. As of the end of Obama's term on January 20, 2017, the Dow Jones had more than recovered from its January 2009 slump, resting nicely at 19,732.40 for the day, more than double what it was on inauguration day. More importantly, it had maintained a healthy range of 15,660 and 19,974 in 2016. Though there have been intermittent downturns, the Dow's general upward trend speaks well for the Obama administration's efforts at economic recovery.

    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...ook-office.asp


    As has been pointed out... Trump did nothing to interrupt the arc of grown begun early in Obama's first term - reversing the collapse during Bush's late term. Nor has he done anything to increase it... or extend it.

    Until, maybe, the passage of 'tax reform'. That gift of tax cuts mostly to the wealthiest, has the potential to serve as a fiscal stimulus. Which could extend the times of djia growth. That's not guaranteed, but it's possible. Of course it is, from a fiscal standpoint, pretty much the wrong time for such a move. It's just politician doing a two-fer: paying of their biggest donors, and hoping to keep the economy in good fettle long enough for the next elections... regardless of what the future cost will be. But that's another topic.

    The primary point is - the best that can be said of Trump's economic performance regarding the Dow is that he didn't find a way to muck it up.

    And Dale doesn't believe the numbers about D.Tramp's low approval ratings? Well... I suppose it's a free country - to the extent that he can believe any sort of misbegotten misinformation he wishes.
    David G
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    Where are those complaints? I haven't seen that. I'm certainly not complaining about my share. Even with market corrections my returns have been pretty good, but I would prefer to be out of the market prior to the correction. If I'm not I'll ride it out like I have before.

    You seem to make a lot of suppositions or generalizations. Maybe you weren't referring to posters here.
    I am sure the complaints voiced by those who post here don't vary far from the complaints voiced by those who do not post here. And vice versa.

    It might be proper to say I draw a number of conclusions based on what people say. These conclusions vary from dead on to well off the mark depending on who is considering if the conclusions apply to them.

    Your comment about prefering to be out of the market prior to a correction tells me something about you. (I will most likely forget it by tomorrow.) Even with all the downturns in the S&P500 the annualized return for 30 year periods has been below 10% only for a couple short periods and never below 7.4%. Those who express concerns about downturns are making complaints. If I need to liquidate some of my investments during a downturn, I will take a "loss" - relative to selling before the downturn, but the loss will not be on my total assets. But the narrative many relate when they complain leads one to believe the "loss" is over their total assets

    I don't consider market conditions when I invest. A positive long term outlook has always been rewarded. I do get scared when I suggest investments for my kids, because they might evaluate my suggestions over the short term.
    Last edited by Too Little Time; 01-04-2018 at 08:37 PM.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Don’t care who takes the credit. I’ll take the cash.
    I just did. Cashed out the riskiest stocks in our portfolio, according to plan.

    Now we have enough to pay off our mortgage and live on for a couple years.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    1) The market has been on a continuous upwards trajectory since 2009, appreciating at around 15% per year (based on the S&P 500). Trump had absolutely nothing to do with it, up to last month.

    2) The Trump tax bill has blown some sunshine up the collective skirts of the investment community and corporations, since passage, so it's natural that the market would have responded positively. It has NOTHING to do with the fundamentals; corporations have been doing very well for quite a while. The bump, if there is one, is simply a reflection of investor expectations... and the likelihood of stock buybacks and dividend increases... NOT, as Trump has claimed, a surge in domestic investment in manufacturing.

    3) That which goes up, inevitably goes down.... especially when 'irrational exuberance' prevails. Alan Greenspan said that before the 2008 collapse, but few believed him.
    .

    So you bailed out of stocks when trump won?

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Nothing to do with Trump, except he has made the risks riskier with his weird behavior.

    What's that old saying?

    Buy low, sell high.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    To quote my favorite NPR Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal "The DOW isn't the economy, and the economy isn't the DOW"

    I did however cash in a large position of my portfolio when Trump won. I could have made more, but I put some of the proceeds into our own company and we are capitalizing on that investment.
    This post is temporary and my disappear at the discretion of the managment

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe (SoCal) View Post
    To quote my favorite NPR Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal "The DOW isn't the economy, and the economy isn't the DOW"

    I did however cash in a large position of my portfolio when Trump won. I could have made more, but I put some of the proceeds into our own company and we are capitalizing on that investment.
    Quite true, and something too many seem to forget.
    David G
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Here's a short summary on the topic of the Dow & the economy -- http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blo...mic-prosperity
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe (SoCal) View Post
    To quote my favorite NPR Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal "The DOW isn't the economy, and the economy isn't the DOW"
    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Quite true, and something too many seem to forget.
    We all live in our personal economies. For people who invest in a DOW tracking fund the DOW is their economy. I am sure that the trillions that the increase in the DOW (or more accurately the S&P 500) represent have a large effect on the economy. People here seem to change their economic behavior based on their hopes and fears for the stock market indices.

    Those who have few investments see the economy much differently.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Wow! Libersls are pizzed we are becoming great again.

    Does anyone actully believe if stocks were down our libs would not be blaming trump...

    Maybe our libs should stick with cartoon pictures, , better logic thereLOL

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by bobbys View Post
    So you bailed out of stocks when trump won?
    No, I didn't. I assumed (correctly) that investors, by and large, would see Trump's support of corporate America as being good for equities... and I was right.

    Interestingly, the conservative's presumption that Obama would be BAD for corporate America was VERY wrong... as the graphs demonstrate.

    I fully expect a market correction, and will not 'bail out', even then... because I own what I believe to be are defensive stocks, in the event of a correction.

    Trump's only effect on the market: a little bit of a 'bump' due to the gigantic tax give-away to the wealthy. Aside from that, he's done nothing, one way or the other, to affect the market. Of course, he's only been in office a year... there's still time for him to do something truly stupid.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







  28. #28
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by bobbys View Post
    Wow! Libersls are pizzed we are becoming great again.

    Does anyone actully believe if stocks were down our libs would not be blaming trump...

    Maybe our libs should stick with cartoon pictures, , better logic thereLOL


    I don't think I've ever learned anything useful from your posts but I did once see that it was possible to remove all the shingles and under-layments from a roof using a front loader. That was informative.
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I was right.

    was VERY wrong.

    only effect on the market ...
    The most interesting part of comparison comments (and a lot of people insist on making them) is that there is nothing to compare them too. We don't get to run an identical earth with some imagined changes and compare the two.

    The stock returns since 2008 don't seem remarkable on the time scales that most seem to talk about. Just a restoration to normal.
    Life is complex.

  30. #30
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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    reds just took 1,500 BILLION dollars from us peons and gave it to corporations.

    OF COURSE stocks are up.
    The best statement I've seen from this latest carnage came from a student who lived through it -

    "My generation will not allow this to continue!"

    Remember voting age is 18. Read it and weep reds.

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I fully expect a market correction, and will not 'bail out', even then... because I own what I believe to be are defensive stocks, in the event of a correction.
    By 'defensive,' I'm guessing you mean safe-play large-cap stocks that pay high dividends, and shouldn't lose too big a proportion of their value in a correction or recession.

    Not sure I'd characterise my choices as offensive. Mildly aggressive might be more accurate. With a 3-5 year horizon, I made between 45% and 65% before cashing out, according to plan. The Warren Buffet wisdom might be suitable if you are founding (and supporting) a dynasty, which I am not.

    What I did with our short-term investments is more like farming cash. You plant, cultivate, keep track, and harvest when things are ripe.

    We still have considerable skin in the game, but the risk is not so great. And we're covered for some time.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    By 'defensive,' I'm guessing you mean safe-play large-cap stocks that pay high dividends, and shouldn't lose too big a proportion of their value in a correction or recession.
    Well, that's the theory, anyhow... but I'm convinced it's got some basis in fact. It's certainly not perfect... witness the automotive industry back in 2008... but they eventually recovered, as well (I didn't own any of the Big Three stocks then. Today, I own some Ford stock)

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    Not sure I'd characterise my choices as offensive. Mildly aggressive might be more accurate. With a 3-5 year horizon, I made between 45% and 65% before cashing out, according to plan.
    Hmmmm... if you made 45-65% in a 3-5 year horizon, I don't think I'd call that a 'plan', per se... but I'd say there was a substantial element of 'luck' involved.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip-skiff View Post
    The Warren Buffet wisdom might be suitable if you are founding (and supporting) a dynasty, which I am not.
    It's not quite a 'dynasty'.... but it's exactly how I got to this point. Buffett's 'slow and steady wins the race' philosophy works for people just starting out, as well as the folks much farther down the road.
    "Reason and facts are sacrificed to opinion and myth. Demonstrable falsehoods are circulated and recycled as fact. Narrow minded opinion refuses to be subjected to thought and analysis. Too many now subject events to a prefabricated set of interpretations, usually provided by a biased media source. The myth is more comfortable than the often difficult search for truth."







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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    I don't think I've ever learned anything useful from your posts but I did once see that it was possible to remove all the shingles and under-layments from a roof using a front loader. That was informative.
    .
    I think you very smart guy though i disagree with yer politics.

    Other then that i read yer posts..

    I do not see any need to attack you...

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    No, I didn't. I assumed (correctly) that investors, by and large, would see Trump's support of corporate America as being good for equities... and I was right.

    Interestingly, the conservative's presumption that Obama would be BAD for corporate America was VERY wrong... as the graphs demonstrate.

    I fully expect a market correction, and will not 'bail out', even then... because I own what I believe to be are defensive stocks, in the event of a correction.

    Trump's only effect on the market: a little bit of a 'bump' due to the gigantic tax give-away to the wealthy. Aside from that, he's done nothing, one way or the other, to affect the market. Of course, he's only been in office a year... there's still time for him to do something truly stupid.
    .

    Well you should sell now.....

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    Default Re: WOW- DOW over 25!!

    “We need to stop measuring how the Economy is doing by how well rich people are doing.”

    304CC606-E6D6-42E3-AE5D-14FC7333902E.jpeg

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