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Thread: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

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    Default An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    It looks like Israel is consolidating its power base with support from Saudi Arabia.

    As we know from recent news reports Saudi has conducted a purge of top officials including some princes..

    Big things are happening in Saudi Arabia. Princes, ministers and top businessmen are being arrested, detained in a luxury hotel, accused of corruption, their planes grounded and their assets seized.
    The driving force behind this is 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who also heads the newly formed anti-corruption committee.
    So what's this all about? Is it really about corruption or is it nothing more than a power grab by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman? The answer is it's both.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41905942

    Or could it be about removing those who object to stronger ties with Israel?

    Many signs point to a deepening understanding, encouraged by the U.S., between Israel and an Islamic kingdom it doesn’t even have diplomatic relations with: Saudi Arabia.
    The two countries share a common enemy in Iran. They’re both urging action against the Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah -- and increasingly taking action themselves, fueling the regional turbulence that has rocked oil markets. And they’re both central to the new American strategy for the Middle East outlined, if not yet detailed, by Donald Trump.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-israel-saudis
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Great - a repressive theocratic monarchy joins forces with a repressive apartheid state.

    I guess they're natural bedfellows, at that.

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    And then there’s the Yemen war being carried out with aid from the US military and that bizarre thing with Lebanon’s president resigning after getting to Saudi Arabia.
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    So, do we get more terrorism, or less?

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by johnw View Post
    So, do we get more terrorism, or less?
    It will continue and intensify, as the world becomes ever-more post-Westphalian. In the sense that modern nation-states are unlikely to engage in epic ground conflicts with hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, especially post-Iraq, it remains an open question whether post-Westphalism is necessarily a bad thing.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    "post-Westphalism?"

    I'd like a little Peace of Münster.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Orca View Post
    Great - a repressive theocratic monarchy joins forces with a repressive apartheid state.
    You could accurately describe pretty much every country in the Middle East with a phrase as bad or worse.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    True. Well, maybe not Jordan and Lebanon... but broadly true.

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Sky Blue View Post
    It will continue and intensify, as the world becomes ever-more post-Westphalian. In the sense that modern nation-states are unlikely to engage in epic ground conflicts with hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, especially post-Iraq, it remains an open question whether post-Westphalism is necessarily a bad thing.
    Rumors of the death of the nation-state have been greatly exaggerated, and even at its apogee, the Westphlian order never really prevented "epic ground conflicts with hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties."

    I'd say what's happening is pretty old-fashioned.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Indeed it is. We're back to the future.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    It is almost certain that a lot of this revolves around the control and transportation of oil and gas reserves..

    Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after arresting 11 cousins as part of an "anti-corruption crackdown", and apparently orchestrating the surprise resignation of the Lebanese prime minister, would have been pleased to read Donald Trump’s tweet expressing hope that the national oil company, Aramco, would sell its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. (Insider trading anybody?).

    Meanwhile, Saudi is at war with Yemen..

    The Saudi-led coalition has attacked the positions of the Houthi militia and loyalists of the former President of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, allegedly supported by Iran, in response to a request from the internationally-recognized but domestically opposed government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.The perception that Iran is supporting the Houthis has been contradicted by a statement made on April 2015, by National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan: "It remains our assessment that Iran does not exert command and control over the Houthis in Yemen"

    But Yemen lies at the mouth of a key shipping route. Millions of barrels of oil a day pass through the narrow Bab al Mandab strait between Yemen and Djibout, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

    Disruption to the narrow shipping lane could stop Gulf oil and LNG tankers from passing through the Suez Canal to the Americas or Europe. So it seems obvious that Saudi, the USA, Israel and others would like to ensure they have control of that channel.
    Somewhere between Murder and Suicide, there is a place called Merseyside.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by johnw View Post
    Rumors of the death of the nation-state have been greatly exaggerated, and even at its apogee, the Westphlian order never really prevented "epic ground conflicts with hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties."

    I'd say what's happening is pretty old-fashioned.
    But with more terrorism which is why we need Trump?
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Orca View Post
    Great - a repressive theocratic monarchy joins forces with a repressive apartheid state.
    Wait, I'm confused--who is the U.S. joining forces with now?

    Tom
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Orca View Post
    True. Well, maybe not Jordan and Lebanon... but broadly true.
    Lebanon's pretty hinky lately.

    Iran is a theocracry. Iran has Lebanon. Iran wants Iraq because it's between Iran and Lebanon, and available.

    The US wants Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia has the oil and hates Iran so Saudi Arabia likes Israel because Jared told them to. Saudi Arabia told the Prime Minister of Lebanon to leave Lebanon and resign so he doesn't get assassinated by Iran like his father. Saudi Princes not falling in line and/or not coughing up are rounded up as Jared returns in triumph.

    A UN protectorate of Iraq pre-Chimp might have been a good thing. Cheaper for all concerned. But there was that 1% chance that Iraq would nuke the US. So we took out Saddam pre-emptively, bringing stability and freedom to the middle east.
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    Wait, I'm confused--who is the U.S. joining forces with now?
    Well, both of them, but that's not news.

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Saudi Arabia has warned its citizens against travelling to Lebanon and asked those who are in the country to leave as soon as possible, the kingdom's official news agency quoted an official source in the Foreign Ministry as saying.

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.821935

    Kuwait has also issued a warning to its citizens to avoid Lebanon. Some observers believe that Israel may launch an attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and back in September they conducted a major military exercise which simulated an attack on Lebanon..

    From September:
    Thousands of reserve soldiers will take part in a 10-day drill that will include mock terrorist infiltrations, evacuation of Israeli border towns and an attack on Lebanon. The goal: to 'vanquish Hezbollah'

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.810559
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Saudi had a secret deal in place to return petro dollars from the US into US bonds, which allowed the US to spend big time, on condition it also backed up Saudi militarily, as in supplies and support if needed. Seeing as the US has been trying to ramp up oil and gas exports while OPEC members, and Russia, were trying to boost prices by slowing production, im not sure they are happy to see the US profiting from there own slow down. The Saudi swing to china is inevitable. What happens when they decide to shift the major bulk of their oil in Yuan?, didnt work out to well for Gadaffi or Hussain.
    Will the Saudis force the US to get involved in a war with Iran? Does not look like it will take much from the noise coming from the Whitehouse.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by isla View Post
    It is almost certain that a lot of this revolves around the control and transportation of oil and gas reserves..

    Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after arresting 11 cousins as part of an "anti-corruption crackdown", and apparently orchestrating the surprise resignation of the Lebanese prime minister, would have been pleased to read Donald Trump’s tweet expressing hope that the national oil company, Aramco, would sell its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. (Insider trading anybody?).

    Meanwhile, Saudi is at war with Yemen..

    The Saudi-led coalition has attacked the positions of the Houthi militia and loyalists of the former President of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, allegedly supported by Iran, in response to a request from the internationally-recognized but domestically opposed government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.The perception that Iran is supporting the Houthis has been contradicted by a statement made on April 2015, by National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan: "It remains our assessment that Iran does not exert command and control over the Houthis in Yemen"

    But Yemen lies at the mouth of a key shipping route. Millions of barrels of oil a day pass through the narrow Bab al Mandab strait between Yemen and Djibout, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

    Disruption to the narrow shipping lane could stop Gulf oil and LNG tankers from passing through the Suez Canal to the Americas or Europe. So it seems obvious that Saudi, the USA, Israel and others would like to ensure they have control of that channel.
    I think the arrests have more to do with 32 yr old Prince Salman cutting out political competition for the future. Kinda like Putin did arresting a few oligarchs in the early 2000's. The alliance with Israel makes sense for an anti Iran ally. The invasion of Iraq really threw a wrench into Saudi Arabia's attempts to maintain dominance as a center of Islam.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Looks like the attempt to destabilize Lebanon could backfire, and unite former enemies against the Saudis.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    I think all this leads back to aligning forces against Iran. It’s all about Iran. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find The US pulling the strings.
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    I think all this leads back to aligning forces against Iran. It’s all about Iran. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find The US pulling the strings.
    Right now, American foreign policy looks more like it's drifting. Probably the US is having its strings pulled.

  22. #22

    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft View Post
    Saudi had a secret deal in place to return petro dollars from the US into US bonds, which allowed the US to spend big time, on condition it also backed up Saudi militarily, as in supplies and support if needed. Seeing as the US has been trying to ramp up oil and gas exports while OPEC members, and Russia, were trying to boost prices by slowing production, im not sure they are happy to see the US profiting from there own slow down. The Saudi swing to china is inevitable. What happens when they decide to shift the major bulk of their oil in Yuan?, didnt work out to well for Gadaffi or Hussain.
    Will the Saudis force the US to get involved in a war with Iran? Does not look like it will take much from the noise coming from the Whitehouse.
    Got a link to secret deals, the Saudis will sell more to China it's a function of we don't need it anymore. The Russians are screwed, the Chinese will buy cheaper Saudi oil, Europe will buy less Russian gas due to renewables. Russia got into the energy business 50 years to late

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    I think all this leads back to aligning forces against Iran. It’s all about Iran. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find The US pulling the strings.
    Why are Muslim nations rallying against another Muslim-majority nation, such as Iran ?

    Arab invaders, zealous of their newly found Islamic identity invaded India in the 7/8 th century - currently Sind Province of Southern Pakistan - and continued their pursuit of converting 'heathens' in other nations, such as the Persia of old, Mesopotamia, Phoenicia etc..

    Makes one wonder..... the seat of Islam, Saudi Arabia, turning against their former territorial conquests and more importantly, millions of converts to their Islamic faith ? ?

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by carioca1232001 View Post
    Why are Muslim nations rallying against another Muslim-majority nation, such as Iran ?

    Arab invaders, zealous of their newly found Islamic identity invaded India in the 7/8 th century - currently Sind Province of Southern Pakistan - and continued their pursuit of converting 'heathens' in other nations, such as the Persia of old, Mesopotamia, Phoenicia etc..

    Makes one wonder..... the seat of Islam, Saudi Arabia, turning against their former territorial conquests and more importantly, millions of converts to their Islamic faith ? ?
    I believe it’s a Shia-Sunni thing. . .
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    That's an admirable effort to simplify matters.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Maybe this ones easier ymmv

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by carioca1232001 View Post
    Why are Muslim nations rallying against another Muslim-majority nation, such as Iran ?

    Arab invaders, zealous of their newly found Islamic identity invaded India in the 7/8 th century - currently Sind Province of Southern Pakistan - and continued their pursuit of converting 'heathens' in other nations, such as the Persia of old, Mesopotamia, Phoenicia etc..

    Makes one wonder..... the seat of Islam, Saudi Arabia, turning against their former territorial conquests and more importantly, millions of converts to their Islamic faith ? ?
    During the Reformation, Protestants at one point tried to enlist the aid of the Turks against the Holy Roman Empire. The bitterest rivalries are between brothers.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Smith porter maine View Post
    Got a link to secret deals, the Saudis will sell more to China it's a function of we don't need it anymore. The Russians are screwed, the Chinese will buy cheaper Saudi oil, Europe will buy less Russian gas due to renewables. Russia got into the energy business 50 years to late

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...-s-debt-secret

    What dont you need anymore, the oil or the dollars? Russia is far from screwed,do you know how much oil and gas is transported to China every year? Saying they got into the energy business 50 years too late is like saying i found 300lbs of gold in my backyard, but cant be bothered to dig it.
    Europe can not function on renewables, nor do we want the overpriced US imported LPG that the US buys from Russia! Nice try, sanction companies that trade with Russian energy firms, but not your own. Is it any wonder your government is fast losing "friends" ?

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    Something is missing. Wealthy individuals who channel funds to militant groups.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post

    Originally Posted by Flying Orca

    Great - a repressive theocratic monarchy joins forces with a repressive apartheid state.
    Wait, I'm confused--who is the U.S. joining forces with now?

    Tom
    Bingo. We now have the most powerful (& aggressive) Hebrew state joining with the most powerful (& aggressive) Muslim state and the most powerful (& aggressive) Christian state (itself, aligning with the other most powerful (& aggressive) Christian state).

    Go ahead - tell me there's nothing to fear here.. MEM is about to complete its domination & destruction - ah, but I repeat myself.

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by carioca1232001 View Post
    Why are Muslim nations rallying against another Muslim-majority nation, such as Iran ?

    Arab invaders, zealous of their newly found Islamic identity invaded India in the 7/8 th century - currently Sind Province of Southern Pakistan - and continued their pursuit of converting 'heathens' in other nations, such as the Persia of old, Mesopotamia, Phoenicia etc..

    Makes one wonder..... the seat of Islam, Saudi Arabia, turning against their former territorial conquests and more importantly, millions of converts to their Islamic faith ? ?
    Then there's these people called the Ahmadis, who apparently on the Islamic world's general-purpose S list.

    Pakistani fundamentalists are on the warpath against the government of Pakistan because the government doesn't persecute the Ahmadis enough, though it's a crime just to be one.

    The country with the most Ahmadis in the world is . . . Pakistan.
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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Then there's these people called the Ahmadis, who apparently on the Islamic world's general-purpose S list.
    Them and Baha'is, yes. That's what happens to reformers. The Islamic world hasn't had its Thirty Years' War yet, but that's not to say it won't happen...

    What are you doing about it?




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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Orca View Post
    Them and Baha'is, yes. That's what happens to reformers. The Islamic world hasn't had its Thirty Years' War yet, but that's not to say it won't happen...
    I've been thinking the same. But would it end in something like the Peace of Westphalia, or just with one side dominating the other?

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    Default Re: An Unprecedented Coalition Is Forming In The Middle East

    So just where are all those IS fighters going that the US left alone? When you invade another country illegally on the pretension of annihilating all of IS, something really stinks. No boots on the ground in Syria? How do you feel about 9-13 bases being reported inside of Syria? Protecting the retreating ISIS convey for another day?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...s_dirty_secret

    Im sure none of them will be jumping on planes to the US, but its only a matter of time before they are in Europe....maybe that is part of the greater plan.

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