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Thread: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

  1. #1
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    Default Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Where vulcanologists believed that a supereruption resulted after millenia of buildup of magma in the chamber below, a new study suggests that it may only take a matter of decades of build-up to trigger an eruption.

    The new study:


    A movement of magma below Yellowstone has been in progress for a while. Fortunately, this story is from the New York Times, know purveyor of "fake" news, so we have nothing to worry about.
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    I remember this being reported
    One important clue was found along the south shore of Yellowstone Lake, where trees were dying because their trunks were partly below water and a boat dock had become completely submerged. At the same time, the water level at the lake's outlet on its north side appeared little changed.
    Scientists reasoned that these observations could be explained by southward tilt of the area around Yellowstone Lake, including the lake basin itself. If the entire area was being pushed up, perhaps the ground at the north end of the lake was rising more than the south end, like a giant bathtub lifted at one end. In this way, the water level of Yellowstone Lake would appear to rise at the south end.
    from https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs100-03/

    The conclusion about the short timescales are of real concern.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Look at that correction at the bottom of the link in the OP. It is hard to believe that the New York Times originally said the supervolcano was under Yosemite.

    Correction: October 11, 2017
    An earlier version of a home page headline for this article misstated the location of a supervolcano that drives geological activity. It is beneath Yellowstone National Park, not Yosemite. Additionally, the amount of material that could be expelled by the supervolcano was miscalculated. It is 2,500 times more than erupted from Mount St. Helens in 1980, not 250,000.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Well, they do both begin with the letter "Y"!!! Doh....
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Well. Do you think the Secretary will dismiss this as fake science?
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    From the article:

    The odds of Yellowstone, or any other supervolcano, erupting anytime soon are small.
    So, it might be "coming", but don't start shopping for a cave just yet.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    A friend reminds me that an acceptable level of human DNA to be found in a hot dog or hamburger, let alone "vegetarian" versions, is not "0."

    While that's admittedly troubling, the number is probably kinda like the supervolcano eruption odds for next week.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    Well. Do you think the Secretary will dismiss this as fake science?
    Donald will claim it as "the biggest, the most stupendous, the best volcano in the history of the world asnd a sign that America is the greatest again"

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    He could maybe hold a rally there. MAG(M)A.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Seriously, if the government knew an eruption was imminent....... Would
    they tell the masses?....... I think not.
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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by jack grebe View Post
    Seriously, if the government knew an eruption was imminent....... Would
    they tell the masses?....... I think not.
    At least not until they'd called their broker.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by jack grebe View Post
    Seriously, if the government knew an eruption was imminent....... Would
    they tell the masses?....... I think not.
    You mean the government would keep the disturbing news quiet, just like they did when Hitler and Japan went on the march, when Russia got atomic bombs, when AIDS started to explode, when they found that cancer caused smoking, that the Russians had won the space race, got ICBMs and were sending missiles to Cuba, when hurricanes loom, when global warming is forecast, and when the supervolcano was first found?

    Oh hang on. The government DID tell the masses in all those situations. And many more. So we know for a fact that governments do tell the people about disturbing situations. Where is your evidence that they normally don't? Why would they change their minds this time?

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris249 View Post
    You mean the government would keep the disturbing news quiet, just like they did when Hitler and Japan went on the march, when Russia got atomic bombs, when AIDS started to explode, when they found that cancer caused smoking, that the Russians had won the space race, got ICBMs and were sending missiles to Cuba, when hurricanes loom, when global warming is forecast, and when the supervolcano was first found?

    Oh hang on. The government DID tell the masses in all those situations. And many more. So we know for a fact that governments do tell the people about disturbing situations. Where is your evidence that they normally don't? Why would they change their minds this time?
    A super eruption is a global extinction type event ..... As in BAM.....
    NOW....... That type of event hasn't happened since that little episode
    down in the Yucatan....... I wasn't there, were you?

    Would the government inform the masses about nuclear attacks?
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Yes, I know about super eruptions. The point is that there is a pattern where the government DOES tell people about major impending dangers. And as far as I know, there were certainly plans to inform the masses about nuclear attacks.

    Apart from anything else, how do you think the government would keep the lid on an impending eruption? Start shooting or locking up the scientists and hoping that no one notices that all the relevant people have suddenly gone quiet? What about the vulcanologists (sp) outside the US who are probably aware? Is the US going to shut down their emails, their access to the media, their twitter? Are they going to prevent any suspicious minds from entering Yellowstone by just erecting a barrier around it, putting a sign up "closed for stocktaking" and hoping no one will notice and put two and two together?

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris249 View Post
    Yes, I know about super eruptions. The point is that there is a pattern where the government DOES tell people about major impending dangers. And as far as I know, there were certainly plans to inform the masses about nuclear attacks.

    Apart from anything else, how do you think the government would keep the lid on an impending eruption? Start shooting or locking up the scientists and hoping that no one notices that all the relevant people have suddenly gone quiet? What about the vulcanologists (sp) outside the US who are probably aware? Is the US going to shut down their emails, their access to the media, their twitter? Are they going to prevent any suspicious minds from entering Yellowstone by just erecting a barrier around it, putting a sign up "closed for stocktaking" and hoping no one will notice and put two and two together?
    Of course not, they will either have Trump tweet it ....... Nobody
    believes him anyway, or STOP THE PRESSES , put it in the NYT
    so it will be denounced as fake news..... Yup, hide it in plain sight.
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    The thing about the supervolcano erupting is that it's a problem that's just at least one order of magnitude greater than that of trying to evacuate New York City, or Los Angeles. While many people might be able to successfully leave the cities, in the case of a super-eruption, where would we go? And if we were to try to leave, maybe now would be a good time to start?
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." William Gibson

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Thus the import of having a sustainable colony of humans somewhere off-world.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Look on the bright side: If it blew up, it would probably take out Dick Cheney.
    We're merely mammals. Let's misbehave! —Cole Porter

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by jack grebe View Post
    A super eruption is a global extinction type event ..... As in BAM.....
    NOW....... That type of event hasn't happened since that little episode
    down in the Yucatan....... I wasn't there, were you?

    Would the government inform the masses about nuclear attacks?
    When was the Yucatan? Toba erupted a bit over 70,000 years ago, creating a very deep lake about 100 x 40 km

    It is believed (no-one did a census) to have reduced the human population to 1,000 breeding pairs.
    "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome and charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" Mark Twain... so... Carpe the living sh!t out of the Diem

    I'd rather look back at my life and say "I can't believe I did that" instead of being there saying "I wish I'd done that"

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    When was the Yucatan? Toba erupted a bit over 70,000 years ago, creating a very deep lake about 100 x 40 km

    It is believed (no-one did a census) to have reduced the human population to 1,000 breeding pairs.
    Researchers at the University of Glasgow dated tektites samples from the impact as 66,038,000 ± 11,000 years old.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by mikefrommontana View Post
    Thus the import of having a sustainable colony of humans somewhere off-world.
    Why?

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Yellowstone has had three supereruptions in the past 2.1 million years. The first remains one of the largest of all time, producing 2,500 times the volume of ash as the 1980 Mount St Helens eruption. If Yellowstone erupted again, some scientists think it would have more devastating consequences than Toba, because the majority of the ash would fall on land rather than in the sea.
    "The last eruption of Yellowstone would potentially have put ash across both American continents," says David Pyle at the University of Oxford. "If you take a continental land mass and you suddenly cover it with 10cm of volcanic ash, all the organic matter and trees will lose their leaves and probably die. Animals will take in chemicals which are toxic to them. The ground will suddenly be much brighter than before, so a lot of the incoming solar radiation might simply be reflected back into the atmosphere, resulting in a lengthy drought."
    With water supplies clogged, electricity transmission lines failing and a complete disruption in ground transport, there would be an immediate crisis.
    from http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2017...on-wipe-us-out



    So, any one want to welcome a few US refugees?
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    "there would be an immediate crisis."

    You are the master of the understatement PM.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    'Twould certainly put a different complexion on "climate change".

    This lovely planet we live on is so volatile, so vast in its time scales, and human frames so limited. I can barely plan my week, and we're talking the last planet-wide mass extinction at roughly 70 million years ago! Though...I think there is mounting evidence of something big having happened around 11 thousand clicks back. (See Graham Hancock et al).

    If this thing blows...in the immortal words of Bette Davis, "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night."

    IIRC, there's another one percolating, um...down Indonesia way?

    Some say the world will end in fire,
    Some say in ice.
    From what I’ve tasted of desire
    I hold with those who favor fire.
    But if it had to perish twice,
    I think I know enough of hate
    To say that for destruction ice
    Is also great
    And would suffice.

    Robert Frost
    So many questions, so little time.

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by ishmael View Post
    'Twould certainly put a different complexion on "climate change".

    This lovely planet we live on is so volatile, so vast in its time scales, and human frames so limited. I can barely plan my week, and we're talking the last planet-wide mass extinction at roughly 70 million years ago! Though...I think there is mounting evidence of something big having happened around 11 thousand clicks back. (See Graham Hancock et al).

    If this thing blows...in the immortal words of Bette Davis, "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night."

    IIRC, there's another one percolating, um...down Indonesia way?

    Some say the world will end in fire,
    Some say in ice.
    From what I’ve tasted of desire
    I hold with those who favor fire.
    But if it had to perish twice,
    I think I know enough of hate
    To say that for destruction ice
    Is also great
    And would suffice.

    Robert Frost
    Yes, there's one... actually several, if not more, percolating in Indonesia. Always is.

    One of the ones I saw there a few years back caused 'The Year Without a Summer' when it last blew big. That was in 1815, then the missing summer was in 1816. Google up Tambora
    "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome and charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" Mark Twain... so... Carpe the living sh!t out of the Diem

    I'd rather look back at my life and say "I can't believe I did that" instead of being there saying "I wish I'd done that"

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    Yes, there's one... actually several, if not more, percolating in Indonesia. Always is.

    One of the ones I saw there a few years back caused 'The Year Without a Summer' when it last blew big. That was in 1815, then the missing summer was in 1816. Google up Tambora
    Or even NZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/30624...ruption-happen
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
    Grateful Dead

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    Default Re: Yellowstone: the supereruption is coming....

    Well on the bright side, if NZ explodes, at least we may have a chance to get the Bledisloe Cup back.

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