Page 2 of 11 FirstFirst 123 ... LastLast
Results 36 to 70 of 362

Thread: IRMA - This does not look good either

  1. #36
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Another post:

    THIS SHOULD HELP YOU UNDERSTAND BETTER

    This is going to be the most important piece to the puzzle as to what happens to Irma, please look at the map of the left, it indicates a weaker shallow trof that would miss Irma opening the door to the south east states. The map on the right indicates a deeper trof that would carve out a track south to north like we see during the winter time with coastal noreasters. I think this graphic should help those following along what I'm at least looking at.





    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  2. #37
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    East Quogue,NY
    Posts
    13,051

    Default

    Perspective: I was looking at the spaghetti charts and notice 3 or 4 that indicate a direct or near hit to my area.

    Then, I look at the other two dozen potential paths, none of which has the storm coming my way.

    Hmmm...


    Kevin


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  3. #38
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    S.W. Florida
    Posts
    1,583

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Breakaway View Post
    Perspective: I was looking at the spaghetti charts and notice 3 or 4 that indicate a direct or near hit to my area.

    Then, I look at the other two dozen potential paths, none of which has the storm coming my way.

    Hmmm...


    Kevin
    [Harry Callahan voice]
    "... you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?""
    [/Harry Callahan voice]

    .
    .

    “What use is a house if you haven’t got a tolerable planet to put it on?”


    ~~~ Henry David Thoreau

  4. #39
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Marietta, GA
    Posts
    8,249

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    By Tuesday or Wednesday we'll know a lot more. Lotta variables in play. Some of the track models are quite varied, with possible landfalls from Nova Scotia to Brownsville, and it's been changing every few hours.
    Last edited by Reynard38; 09-03-2017 at 02:35 PM.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  5. #40
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  6. #41
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    More:




    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  7. #42
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The weathergeek chimes in again.....

    I would say that tomorrow would be a great start time for folks living in Florida to begin preparations. If you own a boat start making the calls now if you plan on removing it. Further up the coast in NC you should also be putting together emergency kits. The Mid Atlantic to New England you need to remain aware. This map is not forecasting a direct hit on any location but it's based on the steps you should be taking now given your location to this current storm.



    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  8. #43
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Caribbean cliff edge
    Posts
    14,437

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Update : In putting up a small shutter on Sunday all 7 rawlbolts failed.

    I was in the hardware store at 7:00am buying replacements and they apparently have sold out of 3/4" form ply (favored for persons to put over windows)

    We are expecting winds (pending a wobble) of less than 74mph.

    First from North

    Then swing from the West and finish off from the South.

    Plus I am booked to fly on Wednesday afternoon. LOL
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  9. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    central, FL
    Posts
    13,529

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Be safe
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  10. #45
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Caribbean cliff edge
    Posts
    14,437

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by jack grebe View Post
    Be safe
    Thanks.

    Trying to do so.


    Interesting site:

    http://stormcarib.com/goes.htm#full
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  11. #46
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    St. Augustine, FL
    Posts
    5,968

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The next 10 days should prove extremely interesting for the Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard.

    It's interesting to see the different takes from the different weather services.

    Here's a Jacksonville station's current chart:

    https://www.news4jax.com/weather/new...in-the-tropics

    Their take of it is that she's going to hit South Florida and come up the state.

    I HATE IT HAS TO HIT ANYWHERE

  12. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    central, FL
    Posts
    13,529

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Margo, I really don't need to hear that........ True, but........
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  13. #48
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    East Quogue,NY
    Posts
    13,051

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Be safe, Rummy.

    Kevin
    There are two kinds of boaters: those who have run aground, and those who lie about it.

  14. #49
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Caribbean cliff edge
    Posts
    14,437

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Breakaway View Post
    Be safe, Rummy.

    Kevin

    Thanks.

    This evening/overnight/tomorrow morning the centre of IRMA should be passing by.

    All forecasts, that I have seen so far, indicate that the eye is likely to pass slightly North of us.
    I certainly hope this is what happens. However friends in Anguilla will likely get clobbered.

    One good thing is that the hurricane force winds do not extend out too far (+\-40miles) from the centre.

    One thing is certain, I am not flying tomorrow.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  15. #50
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Southern Maine
    Posts
    19,593

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    You could be in the dangerous quadrant, there's not much difference between quadrants now, but if it speeds up!

  16. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Marietta, GA
    Posts
    8,249

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Just got a text from the NHC. Irma is now a class 5.
    Rumy I hope you've got a basement or some place secure. Take care.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  17. #52

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Keep low Rum, cat 5 and as large as Ohio.

  18. #53
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Caribbean cliff edge
    Posts
    14,437

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Fingers crossed.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  19. #54
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    CT, USA
    Posts
    9,162

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    For crying out loud . . . Be safe Rum and others down there.
    "Please be more specific or we'll choose to order a cheaper bilge-rat to replace you."

    ~seanz

  20. #55
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Caribbean cliff edge
    Posts
    14,437

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Still clear skies and bright sunshine.

    See flat calm on leeward side of island.

    The only thing I hope is that the Cat 5 hurricane winds do not extend out too far from centre.

    I'm hoping that windy.com has it right.

    Worst (?) for us should be between 5 -7 tomorrow am.

    We are all hoping for a turn (however slight) to the North.

    There are a couple indications that this may happen.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  21. #56
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    S.W. Florida
    Posts
    1,583

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Good luck, R_P!

    ETA-- Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
    Last edited by sharpiefan; 09-05-2017 at 10:43 AM.

    .
    .

    “What use is a house if you haven’t got a tolerable planet to put it on?”


    ~~~ Henry David Thoreau

  22. #57
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    An update:

    This is the latest water vapor imagery, if you look at the Trof it appears a bit stronger than modeled, now looking at the subtropical ridge you can see just where Irma is likely to reach the western periphery of that ridge. This was the main reason I wanted people on the east coast to watch the Hurricane. A lot still may change if this Trof weakens the Sub tropical ridge a bit more than currently forecast, this would allow Irma to move along the east coast of Florida rather than splitting the middle of the state, also allowing her to serve as a bigger potential further northward. Just some things to watch for now.






    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  23. #58
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    Douglasville, Ga
    Posts
    3,938

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Take care Rummy! Keep us posted.
    Tom

  24. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Jerome, Aridzonia Apu Mingus
    Posts
    5,601

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Better tie yourself down!

    Holy Sh....

    11:00a

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
    ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
    ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

  25. #60
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Fort Collins, Co
    Posts
    7,306

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Good luck to you and yours, looking forward to your safe return to the bilge.
    Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business.
    TOM ROBBINS, Even Cowgirls Get the Blues



  26. #61
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    afloat with at least 6' of water under me.
    Posts
    50,252

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!

  27. #62
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    21,007

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!
    We should INSIST that he does.
    Rattling the teacups.

  28. #63
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Hills of Vermont, USA
    Posts
    20,407

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Be safe & well! Watching this carefully as we have family on FL's east coast. House is at least 8' above the high tide line...
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  29. #64
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Hills of Vermont, USA
    Posts
    20,407

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!
    Love the name! Hadn't heard it. Gaudiest damn building I've ever been in - and set up as a club because the Palm Beach Bath & Tennis Club wouldn't let him in.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

  30. #65
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Deepest Darkest Wales
    Posts
    18,181

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by S.V. Airlie View Post
    I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!
    Drop him in by parachute.
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

  31. #66
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Sharon, MA
    Posts
    16,660

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The latest:

    Looking at all the models combined some spread is now heading North.



    The Model spread is crazy for Hurricane Irma... one Camp heads to the FL west coast while the other heads east of Florida and up the eastern seaboard. Everybody must pay attention.












    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  32. #67
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    S.W. Florida
    Posts
    1,583

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either


    Chaos Theory experiment, anyone? At 2017-09-06 1700 UTC, USA-ers go outside, face Irma, and blow a puff of air against it.
    The Butterfly Effect (LINK) says it should have an effect.

    One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

    ---- Edward Lorenz

    .
    .

    “What use is a house if you haven’t got a tolerable planet to put it on?”


    ~~~ Henry David Thoreau

  33. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Kitty Hawk, NC
    Posts
    5,587

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by sharpiefan View Post

    Chaos Theory experiment, anyone? At 2017-09-06 1700 UTC, USA-ers go outside, face Irma, and blow a puff of air against it.
    The Butterfly Effect (LINK) says it should have an effect.
    I was suggesting to my wife that we should kill all the butterflies.

    No real scientist believes in the butterfly effect.
    Life is complex.

  34. #69
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    19,944

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I'm watching the news. This is not just a Category 5. It is one of the most intense Category 5 storms in history.

    Miami-Dade County is being evacuated. This is going to be bad.

  35. #70
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Lake of the Ozarks USA
    Posts
    9,535

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Hope our friends on Vieques are going to be okay. It looks as if Irma may hit them tonight or tomorrow--their place is on the south coast of the island, and is only five or six feet above high tide level.


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •