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Thread: IRMA - This does not look good either

  1. #1
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    Thumbs down IRMA - This does not look good either

    This does not look good either - for us in the Caribbean.

    Plus I am supposedly going to fly on Wednesday.

    PPS The Roll-down metal hurricane shutter installers are coming a week next Friday (the 8h) to install the shutters for downstairs.

    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I've been afraid to look......
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  3. #3
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    See that hook to the South right there about 18N 43W?

    Looks like Harvey's twin sister.


  4. #4
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    Default IRMA - This does not look good either

    The spaghetti tracks are mostly predicting a hard turn to starboard. I hope they are right.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  5. #5
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Have a look on windy.com

    A very interactive site.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    And Houston is going to get hit by Harvey on more time.
    Don't worry I'm happy

    "The law is what we have to live with.
    Justice is sometimes harder to achieve."

    Sherlock Holmes

  7. #7
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Hi Norman got a IRMA thread already going.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    Hi Norman got a IRMA thread already going.
    I see.... I'll leave mine up, but post here, if I find anything new.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  9. #9
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    This site has it going North of the Leeward Islands

    http://passageweather.com/#



    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Hopefully it goes north.

    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    All the tracks save one still have it going north. It's intensified much more rapidly than predicted.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  12. #12
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The track is better found with hindsight....
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    All the tracks save one still have it going north. It's intensified much more rapidly than predicted.

    Hopefully the centre/eye goes well North of all land and that the Cat 4 winds do not extend too far out from the centre.


    I am worried about the more rapid then expected intensification as well.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The latest from my favorite weather geek. This could be impactful along the East Coast, as well as the Caribbean.

    Very dangerous track shown by the 12z Euro at 200 hours. Need to watch this very close because there will be a trough also coming down that would aid in moving the storm up the coast toward LI and New England. Plenty of time to do the math here but keep monitoring it.







    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  15. #15
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I can seriously do without the rain...... I wanna leave PA. and
    head back down to FL. on Monday....... on the bike.... on skyline
    drive and Blue Ridge Parkway........
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  16. #16
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The latest, from my favorite weathergeek:

    I believe for every drop of rain that falls a flower grows, there may be a lot of flowers growing.

    The track of Irma at this point to me uncannily reminds me of Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Gloria, by next week the pattern is much the same as it was than with a strong trough moving east and a very strong ridge sitting in the Atlantic, this would help track such a storm poleward while accelerating it's movement northward.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  17. #17
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    While most of the forecasts suggest that IRMA will pass North of the Leeward Islands (includes me) the 5 days to Wednesday is a long time in forecasting with a good degree of accuracy.

    I just hope that they are right.

    For us:


    https://www.windguru.cz/142066 suggests 14knt winds and some rain.

    http://passageweather.com/# suggests 15-20 knt winds and some rain.

    https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-07-00,17.691,-62.737,8 suggests 3-+ knt winds.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?cone#contents suggest it could pass over us but more likely to go North of us.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...cal-storm-irma

    Five Day Forecast


    Computer models


    Enscemble Computer Model


    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    that does not look promising.

    It's a long way off and there are decent chances that a steering current will push it out to sea.

    But Yikes!
    Skip

    ---This post is delivered with righteous passion and with a solemn southern directness --
    ...........fighting against the deliberate polarization of politics...

  20. #20
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by SKIP KILPATRICK View Post
    that does not look promising.

    It's a long way off and there are decent chances that a steering current will push it out to sea.

    But Yikes!

    Note how very low the barometric pressure is anticipated to be when it nears the USA coast.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  21. #21
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    Default

    917 mb is really bad.

  22. #22
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Giant squid attacks Florida………. Least that what the graphic looks like. Hope it misses you all.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    On the NHC app there is a report from a ship just 50 miles west of Irma. It's reporting only 40 knot winds. It's a very compact storm and hopefully remains so.
    Now I don't know why anybody would want to be 50 miles in FRONT of a hurricane at sea?

    Also it seems that any projected path beyond 120 hours is a real crap shoot. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should have a better idea where it's going.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  24. #24
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I'm still heading south Monday on the motorcycle, depending on storm track I may have to
    hunker down somewhere as I plan a slow scenic drive through the mountains and a few stops
    along the way, I'm thinking a 5ish day trip and would like to stay dry.
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  25. #25
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Best time of the year for the parkway. Schools back in, the leafers haven't arrived yet. Enjoy!
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  26. #26
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    The latest from my favorite weathergeek:

    Here is the latest on hurricane Irma, Global models still show a considerable spread at day 5 so it's early in the game. From everything I've been looking at the overall pattern still suggests this Hurricane will be a legitimate player for the east coast, I'm inclined to lean more toward the Mid Atlantic to New England as models continue to adjust tracks. At this point I'm making no bold call because it's just that....early, However if you are a boat owner from at least NC to New England it may not be a bad time to begin looking at preparations to have your vessel pulled. At least look around and see what will be available to you, because once this starts to approach the Bahamas people will start scrambling and Boat removal may not be so easy to schedule.





    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  27. #27
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Best time of the year for the parkway. Schools back in, the leafers haven't arrived yet. Enjoy!
    Yup, and I am planning the triple header. Skyline, Parkway, and the tail........
    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Don't under-estimate Jack. He's purty damned talented

  28. #28
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Another post from my favorite weathergeek:

    Once again this is very early but I would like to begin showing you what I'm thinking. By the end of next week If your in the areas I have shaded than you need to pay strict attention from this point going forward to Hurricane Irma. I'm almost 100% positive this map will shift around as we close in on the event but for now this is my thinking.







    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  29. #29
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Another post from my favorite weathergeek:
    Norman thanks. As this gets updated could you post?
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  30. #30
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by jack grebe View Post
    I'm still heading south Monday on the motorcycle, depending on storm track I may have to
    hunker down somewhere as I plan a slow scenic drive through the mountains and a few stops
    along the way, I'm thinking a 5ish day trip and would like to stay dry.
    Good luck with that. In southwest Florida we've been getting scattered thunderstorms for days, with minor flooding. There's a long train of storms moving from Yucatan to the northeast. Our forecast is 50-60% rain through Wednesday, and probably more after that.

    In the words of W. S. Kals, "Always have an alternate plan."

    Enjoy your ride, and take care.

    Hope the voyage is a long one.
    May there be many a summer morning when,
    with what pleasure, what joy,
    you come into harbors seen for the first time...

    Ithaka, by Cavafy
    (Keeley - Sherrard translation)

  31. #31

    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I'm good would welcome some rain, like to skip the wind.

  32. #32
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    I can see the cloud cover over Cape Lookout from my house.Thursdays high tide was 5 inches lower than the edge of my road. We are so soaked that trees might just fall over without the wind. A hundred miles miss is a hit out here.

  33. #33
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Norman thanks. As this gets updated could you post?
    I'll be happy to...

    ...but you can check my favorite weathergeek out directly, as well:

    https://www.facebook.com/Northeast-W...UyNSCM&fref=nf
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  34. #34
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    So, this guy thinks that everything from Norfolk to Long Island is the likeliest impact zone.


  35. #35
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    Default Re: IRMA - This does not look good either

    Another note from my favorite weathergeek:

    "Tracking a Hurricane is not like making a forecast for a snowstorm, a lot of intricate parts must fall into place which will dictate the cyclones overall movement, at this time many of those pieces are not quite clear so IMO if I lived anywhere along the east coast from Florida to Maine I would pay a mighty vigilance to what will be Major Hurricane Irma."
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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