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Thread: Confirmation Bias

  1. #1
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    Default Confirmation Bias

    The current issue of the National Geographic has a nice article on lying. Why do we lie? It also touches upon confirmation bias. It cites a psych test wherein a test population was fed a piece of fake news. Subsequent tests showed serious belief in the lie within certain subgroups. Later, the subjects were told that the story was fake news, and testing immediately after that showed a significant decline in belief in the story. Several weeks later, however, belief in the lie grew back to the same levels as when the lie was first told.

    Debunking fake news only serves to further embed the lie in peoples' consciousness.

    With all the cr*p stories being served up on the Intertubes (the weakness of the Internet....) I have had to stop being a believer. Especially when I run across a story I would dearly love to be true. If I am not able to confirm that story via a reliable source (the Washington Post, NY Times, LA Times, McClatchy News, etc) I have to reject it.

    I hereby resolve to NOT post stories to the Bilge which I have not been able to confirm. I may not always succeed -- so please point out any slips I may make.
    "... the door was ajar, and the game was afoot." Lawrence Block

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    ^ Just so.

    I give you a man who has brains,




    and is not afraid to use them.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    But that's not being entertaining!

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    The current issue of the National Geographic has a nice article on lying. Why do we lie? It also touches upon confirmation bias. It cites a psych test wherein a test population was fed a piece of fake news. Subsequent tests showed serious belief in the lie within certain subgroups. Later, the subjects were told that the story was fake news, and testing immediately after that showed a significant decline in belief in the story. Several weeks later, however, belief in the lie grew back to the same levels as when the lie was first told.

    Debunking fake news only serves to further embed the lie in peoples' consciousness.

    With all the cr*p stories being served up on the Intertubes (the weakness of the Internet....) I have had to stop being a believer. Especially when I run across a story I would dearly love to be true. If I am not able to confirm that story via a reliable source (the Washington Post, NY Times, LA Times, McClatchy News, etc) I have to reject it.

    I hereby resolve to NOT post stories to the Bilge which I have not been able to confirm. I may not always succeed -- so please point out any slips I may make.
    Does "Debunking fake news only serves to further embed the lie in peoples' consciousness" apply to everybody, or just "certain subgroups"?
    Rattling the teacups.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    I think it applies by subgroup: what ever bit of fake news really rings your bell, what you want to believe. If it ain't so, you can still believe.
    "... the door was ajar, and the game was afoot." Lawrence Block

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    I get caught by this tendency every once in a while. Just y'day on FB, for instance. Cooler heads (my brilliant twin and the estimable Mr. McColgin) pointed out my error. And so, once again, I resolve to fact-check those marvelous memes that sound too good to be true, and those quotes that sound all too apropos. <sigh>

    I think, though, that what oz is hinting at is that some subgroups do fact-check each other, and do endeavor for truth, and do feel chagrined when they fail to cleave to the factual... others simply shed the truth and celebrate the stupid.
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    ^ Just so.

    I give you a man who has brains,




    and is not afraid to use them.
    Not so much a matter of brains as it is a strategy to preserve the ego: it's truly embarrassing to put one's foot down, only to find one hasn't a leg to stand on.
    "... the door was ajar, and the game was afoot." Lawrence Block

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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    Not so much a matter of brains as it is a strategy to preserve the ego: it's truly embarrassing to put one's foot down, only to find one hasn't a leg to stand on.
    Only if one notices there is no leg.

    Which, did you guys hear about...

    Peace,
    Robert

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    ... I have had to stop being a believer...
    Belief is sometimes described in evolutionary terms as a way to save time and energy on repetitive mental calculations that is not always suited to contemporary life. A believing mind is a closed mind. You are likely better off with as few beliefs as possible. I am.
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    Belief is sometimes described in evolutionary terms as a way to save time and energy on repetitive mental calculations that is not always suited to contemporary life. A believing mind is a closed mind. You are likely better off with as few beliefs as possible. I am.
    I'm not sure I believe that...
    Sorry.

    I actually totally agree. I guess and hope and try, but I know even less than I believe.

    Peace,
    Robert

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    Belief is sometimes described in evolutionary terms as a way to save time and energy on repetitive mental calculations that is not always suited to contemporary life. A believing mind is a closed mind. You are likely better off with as few beliefs as possible. I am.
    Um.... nope.

    Hearken back to the discussion a few months back about fast and slow (type1 & type2) thinking. That base-level thinking or set of beliefs serves us well most of the time. That challenge is developing the slow-thinking skills (logic, questioning, analysis, critical thinking sorta stuff)... and knowing when it's time to shift to that mode.

    https://ericrshelton.com/2015/12/21/...pe-2-thinking/
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Um.... nope.

    Hearken back to the discussion a few months back about fast and slow (type1 & type2) thinking. That base-level thinking or set of beliefs serves us well most of the time. That challenge is developing the slow-thinking skills (logic, questioning, analysis, critical thinking sorta stuff)... and knowing when it's time to shift to that mode.

    https://ericrshelton.com/2015/12/21/...pe-2-thinking/
    For the most part proving my point as far as I can see. We still don't need beliefs to operate efficiently. We need only acknowledge the statistical likelihood of something being true in the sense of being reliably predictable in a practical sense. Entropy is like that.
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by amish rob View Post
    I'm not sure I believe that...
    I should hope not!
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    too many collective excuses (mutual support)
    The doctrine of nonresistance against arbitrary power, and oppression, is absurd, slavish, and destructive of the good and happiness of mankind.
    Personal failures are too important to be trusted to others.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    For the most part proving my point as far as I can see. We still don't need beliefs to operate efficiently. We need only acknowledge the statistical likelihood of something being true in the sense of being reliably predictable in a practical sense. Entropy is like that.
    Ummm... nope.
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  16. #16
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Ummm... nope.
    It's nice to see you using your words instead of getting yourself all worked up.
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    It's nice to see you using your words instead of getting yourself all worked up.
    How very kind of you. Thanks. And it's nice to see that your ability to stick to the topic - as opposed to deflecting with something personal - remains... oh, wait... nevermind.
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    How very kind of you. Thanks. And it's nice to see that your ability to stick to the topic - as opposed to deflecting with something personal - remains... oh, wait... nevermind.
    Perhaps if you had something to say beyond Ummm....nope. Are you my new shadow?
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    Perhaps if you had something to say beyond Ummm....nope. Are you my new shadow?
    Ummm... nope. Are you my new straigt-man? But I must thank you again.
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Ummm... nope...
    I'm relieved to hear that.
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by JimD View Post
    I'm relieved to hear that.
    I'm relieved that you're relieved. And doubly relieved that we can return to the topic. Anything?
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    http://www.harborwoodworking.com/boat.html

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  22. #22
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    Not so much a matter of brains as it is a strategy to preserve the ego: it's truly embarrassing to put one's foot down, only to find one hasn't a leg to stand on.
    Most of us come to grips with that. It's called growing up.

    We learn that we can actually be wrong.

    Trump, on the other hand . . .
    Rattling the teacups.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Confirmation Bias

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    I'm relieved that you're relieved. And doubly relieved that we can return to the topic. Anything?
    Gunnin' fer a slot on my ignore list?

    Really?
    Rattling the teacups.

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