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Thread: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

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    Lightbulb An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Allegedly.

    An interesting talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    An interesting concept of what could lay ahead.

    In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

    Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

    Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

    Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

    In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

    So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

    Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

    It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

    Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

    Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

    Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

    Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

    Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

    Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

    With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

    Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

    It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

    3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

    Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

    At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

    In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

    Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

    If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

    Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

    Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

    Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

    There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

    Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

    Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

    Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

    Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Yea but Trump is gonna bring the coal industry back and get those guys working in the mines again, Making America Great Again.
    This post is temporary and my disappear at the discretion of the managment

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    On the car thing I just towed a 16' catboat from Maryland to Georgia. Tell me how Uber will accomplish that for me?
    Will AI make driving safer? Yes! But will it totally eliminate car ownership? Don't see that happening. It'll work great for short trips and maybe commuting. Close in suburbs and urbanites will join in.

    Incedently Nvidia (NVDA) seems to be at the forefront of AI for self driving cars.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    On the car thing I just towed a 16' catboat from Maryland to Georgia. Tell me how Uber will accomplish that for me?
    Will AI make driving safer? Yes! But will it totally eliminate car ownership? Don't see that happening. It'll work great for short trips and maybe commuting. Close in suburbs and urbanites will join in.

    Incedently Nvidia (NVDA) seems to be at the forefront of AI for self driving cars.
    Objectively, Uber should easily be able to get a guy with a truck to tow your boat. It makes more sense than buying a truck that has the capability to tow a boat, which you only do once a month or so. Regardless, people buy lots of trucks and rarely use their capabilities. Doubt that irrational behavior will change all that much. Mercedes in particular is struggling with the luxury car market today that is dominated by pickup trucks. It was less predictable than the onset of a self-driving car.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe (SoCal) View Post
    Yea but Trump is gonna bring the coal industry back and get those guys working in the mines again, Making America Great Again.
    Mind numbing, isn't it?

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan McCosh View Post
    Objectively, Uber should easily be able to get a guy with a truck to tow your boat. It makes more sense than buying a truck that has the capability to tow a boat, which you only do once a month or so. Regardless, people buy lots of trucks and rarely use their capabilities. Doubt that irrational behavior will change all that much. Mercedes in particular is struggling with the luxury car market today that is dominated by pickup trucks. It was less predictable than the onset of a self-driving car.
    Didnt need a truck. Did it with a 4 cylinder diesel wagon and got 29.6mpg.
    Agreed on the truck thing. Lots of them running around that'll never tow anything or go off road.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    I think maybe half of what was said above will become true. I don't know which half though. There will still be wooden boats though. The free enterprise system will provide a way to tow them wherever they are wanted. And maybe a marina will 3D print a boat for you.
    Will

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    The interesting philosophical conundrum for me is, can humans absorb exponential amounts of change in increasingly shorter periods of time?

    And a tangential thought to the thrust of the scenarios outlined above: if we don't get a handle on climate change and the general dumbing down of societies, it will be all for naught.
    Gerard>
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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    We haven't come close to the rate of technical change at the beginning of the 20th century. They have been working on vision-directed self-driving cars longer than the time it took from the Wright brothers first flight to the first supersonic flight. And they still are 10 years away from production.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    I have to agree with the general line of reasoning in the original excerpt.The real question is the timeframe over which the change occurs.We recently had a large local employer asking their entire workforce whether their job could be done by a robot and a good number said yes.They will be among the first to be offered re-training.What will the rest of the world do?

    I am a little wary of the claims made for 3D printing,mostly because its only useful if you have the capability to model the item you desire in a 3D CAD system,otherwise you are utterly dependent on downloading somebody else's model and it may not be exactly what you need.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    The coming of 'The Useless Class".
    http://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/


    and BTW, don't expect that government or companies will pay much more than lip service to retraining and future education of this without a job to go to. Unless we force them to.
    We are talking 15 years at the outside, politicians and laws governing them and their 'influences' will have to change. Good luck with that.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 05-16-2017 at 05:26 PM.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    I like the part about 90% fewer lawyers.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    I like the part about 90% fewer lawyers.
    I foresee a big expansion in the number of politicians, just to give the lawyers a job……..

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    I think this guy is mostly right. I think we have a huge reckoning coming when technology starts to erode the market it was designed to meet. Say it with me: Guaranteed Minimum Income. I think, within 10-15 years.
    "Please be more specific or we'll choose to order a cheaper bilge-rat to replace you."

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Advanced technology should raise the standard of living for everyone, but obviously wealth distribution is the problem. I don't have an answer, I wish someone did.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    I think this guy is mostly right. I think we have a huge reckoning coming when technology starts to erode the market it was designed to meet. Say it with me: Guaranteed Minimum Income. I think, within 10-15 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    Advanced technology should raise the standard of living for everyone, but obviously wealth distribution is the problem. I don't have an answer, I wish someone did.
    . . .
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by McMike View Post
    I think this guy is mostly right. I think we have a huge reckoning coming when technology starts to erode the market it was designed to meet. Say it with me: Guaranteed Minimum Income. I think, within 10-15 years.
    Actually, I don't know if I support that or not.

    When you say 'Guaranteed Minimum Income', do you see that income being stripped away as you earn your own money?

    If so, that will never work.

    If you are talking about each and every citizen receiving a monthly check, then, yes. From the wacked-out drummer in the band with no gigs, to the exalted CEO of Earth, Inc.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Everyone gets it and there's no penalty. It's the only way for it to work.
    "Please be more specific or we'll choose to order a cheaper bilge-rat to replace you."

    ~seanz

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Didnt need a truck. Did it with a 4 cylinder diesel wagon and got 29.6mpg.
    Agreed on the truck thing. Lots of them running around that'll never tow anything or go off road.
    I did the same, got about 35 mpg, but mine is a tool carrier and mobile workshop, plus shopping cart, touring car, commuter, tows my boat and my work trailer.
    I can see though that my own needs are more complicated than some, both my sisters would be pleased to use a cheap on demand transport system, and there will come a time when it suits me. I'm looking forward to less traffic on the roads, easier parking and all the other benefits that hopefully will come.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    Actually, I don't know if I support that or not.

    When you say 'Guaranteed Minimum Income', do you see that income being stripped away as you earn your own money?

    If so, that will never work.

    If you are talking about each and every citizen receiving a monthly check, then, yes. From the wacked-out drummer in the band with no gigs, to the exalted CEO of Earth, Inc.
    Here in NZ we have that from age 65 on, non contributory, not asset tested. There is some discussion going on about a universal living wage system, but I expect that its a ways off yet.

    John Welsford
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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    What has already happened - except that people have often been slow to see it - is that value has moved from stuff to data.

    Here's a very good article - not by me, but in the paper that I write for - on the move from stuff to data in my industry - merchant shipping . It echoes what the MD of Daimler Benz has to say:

    http://splash247.com/digitialisation...-not-carriers/
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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    I've been watching "Victorian Slum House" for the past two weeks. It is a terrific story of economic history, examining what a "surplus" of labor means. One can hardly argue that there is a reduction in the amount of work needed to be done. The issue is who pays for it, how much, and how.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Driverless F1?

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    Driverless F1?
    Easily achievable and has been for a long time.How do you sell it to the audience?

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    H&S?

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    Driverless F1?
    You could race model trains.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by John Meachen View Post
    Easily achievable and has been for a long time.How do you sell it to the audience?
    how do they sell the current crap they call racing?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: An interesting (prophesy) talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    Driverless F1?
    CGI?……………...

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