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Thread: Georgia Special Election

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    I agree getting 48% in a 60% Rep district was a good showing.
    But consider
    1. He had a lot of money $8 Million
    2. The Reps were split.
    And he still could not win.

    The run off election will be different.
    1. He will not have as large a money advantage.
    2. There will be only one Rep.

    I expect he will get a smaller % of the vote in the run off election.
    You can expect what you wish, but we will all need to wait and see what the final results are, for Mr. Ossoff or for Ms. Handel. There is more campaigning to happen - anything goes.

    Sure, the Republican Vote was split. Do you think that ALL of those voters who were split will magically back Ms. Handel? Realistically , it would not take much defection of Republican Voters to push Mr. Ossoff to victory in the next election. If this election truly is a referendum on Mr. Trump, his continued support of Ms. Handel and negative commentary on Mr. Ossoff could push the vote away from Ms. Handel.

    Let's also agree that if Mr. Ossoff was a Republican and all of the things that you're considering above were true, you'd be declaring this a great victory.

    Give it up.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  2. #37
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Even CNN is open to the possibility that Ossoff will not get the same support from the Dem in the run-off election.

    Title: Democrats needed a win. They didn't get one in Georgia.
    What's difficult to know is how Ossoff's showing will be viewed by the Democratic base and the donor community. Will it be evidence that even seats in the solid South can be won thanks to Trump's unpopularity? Or will Democrats regard it as a disappointment given the perfect storm of factors that seemed to be lining up in Ossoff's favor for Tuesday's vote?
    Link: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/politi...ults-analysis/

  3. #38
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Questions asked does not equate with a lack of support, just valid questions that are worth asking, geng. Any reporter worth his salt would.

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Those supporting the other GOP candidates will NOT necessarily flock to Handel. For one thing she's a female. For another she doesn't share Bob Greys far right agenda.
    She has been working to distance herself from Trump. A lot depends on his actions before the runoff. If he "behaves" like he tells others to do (Little Kim?) she's got a good shot st winning. If the Trump train goes off the tracks...

    She can distance herself to appeal to the moderate repubs, but in doing so she will alienate the far right that supported Grey. The dem voters on the other hand will assuredly back Ossoff.

    Its far far from over.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    Even CNN is open to the possibility that Ossoff will not get the same support from the Dem in the run-off election.

    Title: Democrats needed a win. They didn't get one in Georgia.
    What's difficult to know is how Ossoff's showing will be viewed by the Democratic base and the donor community. Will it be evidence that even seats in the solid South can be won thanks to Trump's unpopularity? Or will Democrats regard it as a disappointment given the perfect storm of factors that seemed to be lining up in Ossoff's favor for Tuesday's vote?
    Link: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/politi...ults-analysis/
    Keep on dreamin'.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Those supporting the other GOP candidates will NOT necessarily flock to Handel. For one thing she's a female. For another she doesn't share Bob Greys far right agenda.
    She has been working to distance herself from Trump. A lot depends on his actions before the runoff. If he "behaves" like he tells others to do (Little Kim?) she's got a good shot st winning. If the Trump train goes off the tracks...

    She can distance herself to appeal to the moderate repubs, but in doing so she will alienate the far right that supported Grey. The dem voters on the other hand will assuredly back Ossoff.

    Its far far from over.
    This is an opinion that I can agree with.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  6. #41
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    It is pretty funny that Sean Spicer and our current president are desperately trying to spin this as a big Democratic loss. It is freaking GEORGIA, fer crissakes. And our current president robocalled to boot.

    No, this result if anything should send panic waves rippling through the intestines of Republican honchos like a bad piece of meat.
    Gerard>
    Everett, WA

    RESIST. FIGHT THE POWER.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Jamie nailed it -
    it's impossible to reply to on any intellectual level.
    "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." - Alice

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    I live in an area called East Cobb. It's the epicenter of the 6th. Used to be totally red, but it's changing demographically and politically.
    Made BBC news last night. It's huge hear. Seeing a lot more Ossoff (democratic candidate) signs than anybody else. His volunteers have been out in force.
    Karen Handell's folks were out in front of the Chik Filet a 1/4 mile from my house yesterday. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if they were Chik Filet employees being made to do it given the companies overt political overtones.

    Voted early for Ossoff. Wife and daughter are voting for him today. My guess is itll end in a runoff. That will happen in June.
    What a rare opportunity to hear from someone on the ground in this district. Could you tell us more about the demographic changes occurring?

    The polls had Ossoff at 46% of the vote, so he overperformed slightly. Price won with about 65% of the vote last time, so it's a little hard to imagine Ossoff winning in the runoff. Usually, the Republicans have a substantial turnout advantage in these special elections, but it appears this is not the case in this one.

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Lot of immigration from Iran, India, and China occurring. The schools here are really good, have been for years. Cultures that place a big emphasis on education love it here. Not nearly as many white faces as too used to see. I grew up here. Been a resident since I was 14. Our daughter went to my high school. Her class was very diverse, racially, culturally and religiously. Her best friend was Iranian. Our nextdoor neighbors are Orthodox Jews from South Africa. I see a couple walk down our street every night and she's wearing a hijab.
    These folks most likely won't be voting for anybody they associate with Trump.
    Also a lot of highly educated younger parents moving in from other parts of the US. Mercedes Benz just moved their HQ from NJ to new digs just 4 miles down the road. Economy is booming and houses routinely have bidding wars and sell for more than asking price. Saw quite a few Minnesota plates when my Company bought Northwest Airlines.

    On the other hand Cobb county doesn't charge seniors a school tax, so at 65 your property tax drops by 2/3. We have a lot of retireees here and assisted living centers are all the rage. New one going up 200 yards from where I sit right now. These folks seem to love Trump, and are very racially biased. They eat up the "Make America Great Again" schtick.

    So therein lies the tightrope for Ms. Handel. Go for the immigrant vote? Lose the old farts. Appeal to gramps and granny? The newcomers stay with with Ossoff.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Thank you for that report.

  11. #46
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    Default

    Looks like Ossoff did poorly in North Fulton, which is surprising to me. He also won every precinct in Cobb, which is also surprising.

    Ken


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  12. #47
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Sanders is not helping.

    Title: Sanders: I don’t know if Ossoff is a progressive
    Link: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...is-progressive

  13. #48
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    I don't think both sides should be sticking their noses in to make it a bigger picture..

    Let the people that live there vote on the local issues at hand.

    Yes, I mean DT as well as all the hollywood stars .

  14. #49
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by bobbys View Post
    I don't think both sides should be sticking their noses in to make it a bigger picture..

    Let the people that live there vote on the local issues at hand.

    Yes, I mean DT as well as all the hollywood stars .
    In general, I agree let the locals decide who they want.

  15. #50
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    In general, I agree let the locals decide who they want.
    I think if you'll look at the previous vote, they did.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  16. #51
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    I think if you'll look at the previous vote, they did.
    We are talking about the $8 million of outside money and outside volunteers.

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Ossoff raised about $8m, much of it out of district. What he raised was normal campaign fundraising with recorded donors. Since there were so many Republicans, none of them raised much money individually. The totality of Republican campaign money was not for a candidate but was funneled through dark money PACs. We have no way of knowing who those donors were. That total was less than what Ossoff raised.

    Now that the R's have one, it will get very interesting. We can expect much negativity as Ossoff will be raising Trump's record and the Republic Party's embrace of oligarchy while the Republicans will call Ossoff a baby killer.

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by woodpile View Post
    And another loss for Hollywood, would you really want the Hollywood elite's influencing an election in your state, they should stick to their day jobs.
    Ya mean like these? http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/holly.../14/id/723856/
    “What, Me Worry?". -. A. E. Newman

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Would you give Ossoff money for the runoff election considering he had a big money advantage and could not get over 50%?


    Title: Can Any Amount of Money Win Jon Ossoff Georgia's Sixth District?
    Democrats around the country have heaved more than $8.3 million into Ossoff's campaign coffers, breaking the record for a special election in Georgia. (By comparison, his Republican rivals, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and former state Sen. Judson Hill, have raised $463,000 and $473,000, respectively.)
    Link: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...strict-w477132

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    We are talking about the $8 million of outside money and outside volunteers.
    I don't hear you complaining about situations like that where it benefits Republicans. To wit : Pat Toomey, Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Roy Blunt... I could keep going.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  21. #56
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    In general, I agree let the locals decide who they want.
    So you stand against such decisions as Citizens United; and stand for campaign finance reform as supported by the likes of Obama and Bernie Sanders?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    So you stand against such decisions as Citizens United; and stand for campaign finance reform as supported by the likes of Obama and Bernie Sanders?
    ^^^^
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  23. #58
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by The Gentleman Sawyer View Post
    Looks like Ossoff did poorly in North Fulton, which is surprising to me. He also won every precinct in Cobb, which is also surprising.

    Ken


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    North Fulton is now the township of Milton. $1,000,000 + equestrian estates, Range Rovers for her, S Class Mercedes for him.
    And Cobb is not the republican enclave it once was.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  24. #59
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    I agree getting 48% in a 60% Rep district was a good showing.
    But consider
    1. He had a lot of money $8 Million
    2. The Reps were split.
    And he still could not win.

    The run off election will be different.
    1. He will not have as large a money advantage.
    2. There will be only one Rep.

    I expect he will get a smaller % of the vote in the run off election.
    Right on schedule.
    1. Ossoff is dropping in the polls (48% to 46.5%)
    2. Handel has increased in the polls (19.8% to 49.1%)

    Title: POLL: Handel holds slight lead over Ossoff in 6th District
    The new poll of 611 likely voters shows Handel with 49.1 percent of the vote and Ossoff with 46.5 percent.
    Link: http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/plen...noff/519809623

  25. #60
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Really?

    http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05...-georgias-6th/

    Lot more Ossoff yard signs than for Handel, including of course the one in my front yard. 3 votes for the Dem from our home.

    I still think Ossoff has a bit of an uphill battle, but every time Big Orange steps on his **** it costs Handel votes, and heck that's everyday!

    Maybe if Ms. Handell were to assault a reporter or club a gay, black, Muslim baby seal to death it would bring more repubs to the poles. Worked in Montana right?
    Last edited by Reynard38; 05-28-2017 at 08:10 AM.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  26. #61
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Really?

    http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05...-georgias-6th/

    Lot more Ossoff yard signs than for Handel, including of course the one in my front yard. 3 votes for the Dem from our home.

    I still think Ossoff has a bit of an uphill battle, but every time Big Orange steps on his **** it costs Handel votes, and heck that's everyday!

    Maybe if Ms. Handell were to assault a reporter or club a gay, black, Muslim baby seal to death it would bring more repubs to the poles. Worked in Montana right?
    Thanks for the new information.
    Ossoff has not gained in the polls. (48% to 48%)
    Handel has gained in the polls. (19.8% to 47%)

    Considering this is an Ossoff internal poll you have to wonder if it is accurate.

    Title: Poll: Ossoff in dead heat with Handel in Georgia’s 6th
    An internal poll conducted for Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaign shows him locked in a dead heat with Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 runoff to represent Georgia’s 6th District.
    The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a polling firm that worked for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And while it’s an internal poll, it’s also the first we’ve seen since Ossoff narrowly missed an outright win in last month’s special election.
    It shows Ossoff leading Handel 48-47, well within the 4 percent margin of error. It has a scant 5 percent of voters in the district as undecided – reflective of the all-consuming nature of the nationally-watched race.
    Link: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05...-georgias-6th/

  27. #62
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Of course Handell gained in the poles, apples to oranges. Votes no longer split between her and Bob Grey.
    The Ossoff volunteers have really been out canvassing. Mostly women, young and middle aged. Soccer moms disillusioned with Trump and the repubs. And there are a lot of them around here.
    Whats expected, but still interesting is the yard signs. Drive by a $1,000,000 McMansion and it's got a Handell sign. Down the street is a $550,000 home with one for Ossoff. You see this divide over and over again.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  28. #63
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Reynard38 View Post
    Of course Handell gained in the poles, apples to oranges. Votes no longer split between her and Bob Grey.
    The Ossoff volunteers have really been out canvassing. Mostly women, young and middle aged. Soccer moms disillusioned with Trump and the repubs. And there are a lot of them around here.
    Whats expected, but still interesting is the yard signs. Drive by a $1,000,000 McMansion and it's got a Handell sign. Down the street is a $550,000 home with one for Ossoff. You see this divide over and over again.
    Finally.
    Rattling the teacups.

  29. #64
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Today's the day. Polls close at 7:00pm EDT.
    Lot of early voting happened.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  30. #65
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Usually, a special election in this district would be a slam-dunk for the Republicans. I'll actually be surprised if they don't take it this time.

  31. #66
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    So how is the exit polling looking?

  32. #67
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    As of now Handle is ahead.

  33. #68
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian McColgin View Post
    As of now Handle is ahead.
    It's bouncing back and forth Ian.

  34. #69
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    From the AJC a few minutes ago Handell ahead by about 300 votes out of 63000 counted, 9%, so far.

    http://www.ajc.com/news/ga-6th-distr...ction-results/
    Last edited by SMARTINSEN; 06-20-2017 at 08:06 PM.
    Steve Martinsen

  35. #70
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    Default Re: Georgia Special Election

    The networks called it for the reds about half an hour ago. Looks like things are more normal than people thought.

    Was it the ads saying if Ossoff won, there would be Sharia law that put Handel over?

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