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Thread: Circling the drain

  1. #1
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    Default Circling the drain

    Headed down...

    The Gallup daily tracking poll finds President Trump’s approval rate sinking to 37% to 58%.

    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







  2. #2
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    We said this all during the campaign when his approval ratings never rose above 40% and we still ended up with this devious cretin as POTUS. Just enough Americans are trapped under his cunning spell to keep him in power. He tapped into the stupid voter and knows how to control them.
    I am scared for America and the world.
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    When the factories don't reopen, when the jobs don't come back, when the wages don't go up, but the cost of living still does, the real anger will turn the vote against Trump and the GOP into a mid term blood bath.
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  4. #4
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by Duncan Gibbs View Post
    When the factories don't reopen, when the jobs don't come back, when the wages don't go up, but the cost of living still does, the real anger will turn the vote against Trump and the GOP into a mid term blood bath.
    Depends on whether his communications strategy holds enough water with his base. Factories open and close all the time, "noise" within the larger "trends" whether the economy is improving or failing. The communication's challenge is to seize on enough of the openings and convincingly "Trumpwash" them, while offloading responsibility for the closings onto the evil other guys.

    I hasten to say that a lesser version of this is standard fare in political life; the media's challenge in particular will be to champion established metrics, and speak to "signal" rather than "noise." In our present 24 hour news environment, driven by ratings and the sensationalization of all actions into crises, we're heavily predisposed to be unable to do this.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    I must say that graphic is more interesting than the last. He broke below the 40% mark. Good! Keep it up.

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    What would it take for his numbers to change and begin to trend upward? He would have to reverse course and cross the aisle on at least one major issue to the D side, and if that raises his numbers on that side it will tank them on the other and the loyal base will continue to erode. He can't win unless he does the most unlikely thing of all and actually changes his position and course on all the major issues. Thus the inevitability of said swirl and like all such swirls it is a spiral with an ever steepening curve and a terminal plummet.

    The more likely alternative is that he keeps on keeping on and the slide happens anyway. He is doomed either way; no one in congress is going to want to be associated with him as the negatives continue to pile up. He'll become toxic and when the fall happens he'll prove to be contagious as well. And that's only if there is never any fire to go with smell of Russian smoke. Also unlikely, IMO.

    The pirates will be sunk; the mutineers will be set adrift in a small boat; and the ship will reverse course for deeper water, calmer currents, and less stormy weather and a smooth, less rocky shore. And a shining city of a thousand lights, a beacon on a hill.

    Beat that sucker to death didn't I. The metaphor I mean.

    Postscriptly, there is also the distinct possibility that the most outlandish and surprising thing happens again, and he keeps keeping on and his numbers change and rise, because Magically Blessed with Abundance Don may really be the Anti-Christ.

    It was rigged and Putin didn't have anything at all to do with it. It was the devil.

    Nah. Unfortunately or not, there is no Devil except rhetorically and nor is there any Hell. The trmp phenomon will end one day way or another, and will eventually be shown to be just a pimple in history.

    ----------

    If you will allow me to hold back the expository second sentence, I might not be banned for stating in the first, that it is my opinion that that pretender to the Oval Office is all of the pelvic anatomy of both genders and more than one species.
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Apparently... not the lowest rating for a president ever. But the quickest to get that low. He's a RECORD-SETTING president!!!
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    What would it take for his numbers to change and begin to trend upward?
    The last time he had an uptick was after he read someone's speech that sounded "presidential". Then it was back to the tweets and his death spiral.
    "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." - Alice

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    Depends on whether his communications strategy holds enough water with his base. Factories open and close all the time, "noise" within the larger "trends" whether the economy is improving or failing. The communication's challenge is to seize on enough of the openings and convincingly "Trumpwash" them, while offloading responsibility for the closings onto the evil other guys.

    I hasten to say that a lesser version of this is standard fare in political life; the media's challenge in particular will be to champion established metrics, and speak to "signal" rather than "noise." In our present 24 hour news environment, driven by ratings and the sensationalization of all actions into crises, we're heavily predisposed to be unable to do this.
    Tom, cash talks and BS walks. If people who voted for Trump because they're hurting are hurting even more nothing the tweeting twit can say will be any kind of salve for their betrayal.
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    A president was elected by the voters. That poll showed Trump was preferred over Clinton. Or at least a close second.

    This poll show the voters are not happy. It might have shown a similar drop had Clinton been elected. But wait, the economy is booming or so say many (but not me). We have the ACA covering health care costs. We have full employment. We have a rising stock market.

    8 years of boom and still people get restless when they don't get everything they want.
    Life is complex.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by Duncan Gibbs View Post
    Tom, cash talks and BS walks. If people who voted for Trump because they're hurting are hurting even more nothing the tweeting twit can say will be any kind of salve for their betrayal.
    In any normal times, I'd agree. These aren't normal times.

    In normal times, the guy would never have made it to the Primaries, let alone where he is. But many Reds are hurt and angry and blame all their misfortune on Libruls. This guy's trolled them better than anyone in history, his ridiculous impossible lies keep making those oh-so-intelligent Libruls rise to the bait - and their pain and anguish is so tasty!

    I think it's gonna take a lot longer than it ought to before the Reds find that trolling-for-Libs was also a distraction, and that they've been shafted too. Among other things, all the established indicators showing economic downturns etc. were developed by egghead Libruls, and for quite a while any criticism based on those indicators will just be so much more troll-bait. It will be a while before the pain to Reds is too obvious to ignore.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    If the rate keeps up, we're gonna need this so that the plumbing can keep up:

    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.60ed6ed86ed2




    Why Donald Trump's low approval rating may mean less than you think
    By Philip Bump March 20 at 10:11 AM


    Social media erupted into paroxysms of schadenfreude over the weekend with the discovery that President Trump’s daily approval rating from Gallup had hit a new low of 37 percent. That figure is lower than Barack Obama experienced at any point over the course of his presidency. On a daily basis, Trump is now averaging 42.1 percent approval, lower than any other previous president included in Gallup’s data.


    The vertical dashed lines mark Trump’s average and low.
    For those looking to these figures as proof that Trump’s presidency is failing and, perhaps an eventual drag on his party, there are a few reasons to wait before spiking the football.
    The first is that Gallup’s daily numbers are volatile. He’s been down before, as low as 38 percent approval. A week later, he was at 43 percent. On March 11, about a week before the March 18 low that’s gotten so much attention, he was at 45 percent approval — which then collapsed.


    Why? What happened between March 11 and March 18? You can point to any number of things, of course. It’s hard to say. Gallup usually tracks approval numbers based on weekly averages precisely to smooth out the volatility the daily polling can see. When you do that, Trump’s time in office has been poorly reviewed, but not quite as dramatically so.


    Gallup will release new weekly numbers shortly that should show an average approval of about 40 percent. That would tie the lowest weekly average Obama ever saw.
    But this is also just one polling firm. Using data from Huffington Post Pollster, you can see that the average of a variety polls of Trump’s approval is much smoother than the Gallup daily poll. There’s still been a recent downturn, but a more modest one than the Gallup numbers might suggest.


    You’ll notice, too, that Gallup’s daily numbers are a bit lower than the running trend line in that overall average. As The Washington Post’s polling manager Scott Clement pointed out on Twitter, this is in part due to the universe that Gallup is interviewing: All Americans, as opposed to just registered or likely voters.
    Pew Research dove into this split last month. As we’ve noted frequently, pools of likely voters tend to skew more Republican than other groups because those most likely to vote — older, wealthier people — overlap with the Republican base. (This is one reason that Republicans have recently fared better during lower-turnout midterm elections.) If we separate out the universes of polls in that Huffington Post data, the split between polls measuring just likely voters and those measuring everyone is clear.




    Mind you, the likely-voter polls include the Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports (the poll that Trump and his allies tend to mention, just as Trump’s opponents like to talk about Gallup). And you’ll notice, too, that the likely-voter numbers have also slipped over time.
    If you’re a Republican looking at the extent to which Trump might pose an electoral risk, the fact that likely voters have been more supportive of his presidency so far is probable reassuring. What’s more, Republicans continue to strongly approve of Trump — even in Gallup’s polling.
    Over the last few months of his presidency, Obama averaged about 91 percent approval from Democrats. Among Republicans, Trump’s approval is only slightly lower, at 87 percent. Among the opposing party, neither was terribly popular.


    That’s going to be reassuring to Republicans, too. What won’t be is that yellow line. Independents like Trump far less than they did Obama, though, again, this includes everyone, not just registered voters. Trump is averaging 38 percent approval from independents. While he ended high across the board, Obama averaged 44 percent support from that group over the course of his presidency. Because partisans were so polarized, it was often the independents that drove his overall approval rating. So far, that’s true for Trump, too. If those numbers shift, his overall Gallup approval rating will shift up, too — as it did since his previous low.
    If Gallup’s approval numbers for Trump pick back up, it probably won’t earn quite the same level of attention on social media. If they don’t, though? That social media firestorm would be warranted.
    "The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
    -Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    So far as voters go he thrilled the just plain stupid and otherwise unknowing and unaware with the idea that one of their own was running to the extent that a high percentage of them turned out and voted. This was still just a small percentage of those eligible to vote, but so many of the rest stayed home that he actually got elected.

    The world would be a much better place overall, and the US would stand a much better chance of being great again, if voting were mandatory, gerrymandering were outlawed, and campaign contributions were limited to a set amount per individual voter only.

    Fat chance of that, but maybe he'll eventually screw the pooch so badly that at least some of those improvements look attractive enough that they become possibilities.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Another bump for bobbys.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by Gib Etheridge View Post
    So far as voters go he thrilled the just plain stupid and otherwise unknowing and unaware with the idea that one of their own was running to the extent that a high percentage of them turned out and voted. This was still just a small percentage of those eligible to vote, but so many of the rest stayed home that he actually got elected.

    The world would be a much better place overall, and the US would stand a much better chance of being great again, if voting were mandatory, gerrymandering were outlawed, and campaign contributions were limited to a set amount per individual voter only.

    Fat chance of that, but maybe he'll eventually screw the pooch so badly that at least some of those improvements look attractive enough that they become possibilities.
    I am sure you forgot the most important item under the "if" - someone with your political leanings was elected.

    Calling people stupid is not a good way to get them on your side. I am sure if the Democrats gave more to the poor - free healthcare, more food, the voters would be smarter.
    Life is complex.

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    The fact is that accessible health care and enough good food promote brain development in children, who are then smarter as adults.

    Smarter people are more likely to employ common sense, and common sense dictates that the three changes I listed would help keep your country from disappearing down the drain. That is, "IF" it happens in time.

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by Gib Etheridge View Post
    So far as voters go he thrilled the just plain stupid and otherwise unknowing and unaware with the idea that one of their own was running to the extent that a high percentage of them turned out and voted. This was still just a small percentage of those eligible to vote, but so many of the rest stayed home that he actually got elected.

    The world would be a much better place overall, and the US would stand a much better chance of being great again, if voting were mandatory, gerrymandering were outlawed, and campaign contributions were limited to a set amount per individual voter only.

    Fat chance of that, but maybe he'll eventually screw the pooch so badly that at least some of those improvements look attractive enough that they become possibilities.


    Can you construct a sentence with the phrases "liberty" and "mandatory voting" in it?

    Gerrymandering only affects races for the House of Representatives. It would not change the fact that the President, Senate, and State Governorships are mostly republican.
    Last edited by mdh; 03-20-2017 at 08:19 PM.
    Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. John Fn Kennedy. (D)

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Quote Originally Posted by mdh View Post
    Can you construct a sentence with the phrases "liberty" and "mandatory voting" in it?

    Gerrymandering only affects races for the House of Representatives. It would not change the fact that the President, Senate, and State Governorships are mostly republican.
    Nor would it change the fact that the Senate, President, and most State Governors are Republican Morons, who do not give a slimy, ripping ratfreak whether they sold your soul to Vlad or not, just so long as they are in POWER!
    Rattling the teacups.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    How about "I have not noticed that Australian's liberty has been infringed upon by the fact that voting is mandatory"?

    You say the "Gerrymandering only affects races for the House of Representatives". "Only", as if that didn't make any difference.

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Actually Gib attendance at a polling place to get your name marked off is mandatory. After that you can make a paper plane of your ballot if you like.

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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Most the Australians I've discussed it with regard mandatory voting in the same way we regards mandatory paying of tax. A civic responsibility.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Am I correct that you just have to show up; you don't have to vote for any of the standard candidates. Writing in Donald Duck or 'none of the above' is OK, right?

    Ah, never mind; already answered.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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  24. #24
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    It's not approved of .I always vote for the lesser of two weevils..... someone will get the job and they aren't all equally bad. I choose one.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  25. #25
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Right, I do likewise here - but you don't have to, correct?
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Circling the drain

    Correct Keith.

    You could draw a pretty landscape on the ballot and place it into the box if you desired and you've done your civic duty as far as the law is concerned.

    We don't have electronic voting either. HB pencils are provided at each booth, or you can bring your own black pen to cast a legitimate vote.
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