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Thread: British Politics Post Brexit

  1. #1
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    Default British Politics Post Brexit

    The General Election of 2015 and the European Referendum of 2016 were game changers in the field of British Politics. In both cases, the normally reliable opinion polls got the result wrong; the former being blamed on “Shy Tories” and the latter on “Shy Leavers”.


    In the Westminster village the Labour party has torn itself apart and is incapable of forming an effective opposition to a Conservative Government hostage to a small but vocal right wing. On top of that we have Brexit issue to deal with.


    In thinking about the situation, I can only come up with questions, not answers, which I hope will stimulate debate and not acrimonious mud slinging as with US politics.


    Should the Brexit Referendum result be overturned by a) the Courts as they are being currently petitioned and / or b) Parliament; and what would this entail for democracy?


    If this happens, should the electorate be asked again whether they agree or not? And should the question be put to another Referendum or a General Election? I would prefer the latter so that any Government formed thereafter has a clear mandate to act. But it should be borne in mind that the Fixed Terms (Parliament) Act puts a few hurdles in the way of an early Election.


    Is it acceptable to still regard “Leavers” as “uneducated racists”? Some left wing commentators consider that such people should not be entrusted with the Vote”. Should there be a level of educational attainment to be gained or a State exam to be passed before you are allowed to vote? (I am strongly opposed but others may differ. It’s a sad reflection of the bitterness that divides this Country that such a step is even contemplated.)


    Is the Labour Party finished as a credible political force in this Country, and if so, who / what could replace them?


    Will Labour become a hard left protest group matched on the Right by UKIP? And where does that leave the Centre?


    Should we follow the Swiss model and use referenda more often, and what would this mean for the concept of Parliamentary Sovereignty?


    Views welcomed and any other related questions.


    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    This'll be fun
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    The recent on line votes have clarified my thinking.
    Our parliamentary democracy functions because the voters elect representatives on their stated manifesto. Those representatives then have the time and facilities to become educated on the issues on which they have to make decisions. We should continue to let them get on with it.

    The decision to hold public votes is a bad idea that runs contrary to the tried and tested process set out above.
    With the best will in the world, no matter how well educated or informed, the British Joe the Plumber cannot be fully informed of the pros an cons of the choices put.
    In the case of Corbyn, he was an unknown outside of Islington. I had seen one mention of him before he ran for leader. That was a passing mention in the Tony Benn diaries to the effect that he attended a meeting with Wedgy. It is apparent that he had minimal support amongst the parliamentarians, and may well be unelectable as PM. His performance during the BREXIT campaign went unnoticed although he claims to have been at 140+ meetings. Does not cut it. 140 X say 300 at a time, compared to prime time TV? Hopeless.
    Then we come to BREXIT. Lies and misjudgements. Cameron could not counter many of the lies as he would have had to say "No that's not the EU, those were our fault". They also misjudged the issues of importance to the voters. However when it comes down to it it was a protest vote based on a complete misunderstanding of how the EU works and what it does.
    In summary, two more Boaty McBoatface exercises.

    As to the future. Probably another Tory government with policies dragging us back in to the 19C caste system and dismantling many of the protections that the disadvantaged and wage slaves have and need. This will tick off the electorate , iether after one or two more Tory governments and labour will be returned again.

    As to UKIP, like the Liberals, they have achieved their objective and now have no purpose. The Liberals were always excellent town and county councillors. I doubt that UKIP will attract enough competent activists to grow into that role.
    That leaves Labour and the Greens, sort out the Corbyn problem and dump the selection vote and give it back to the PLP and they will be able to become electable again.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    A broadly accurate summary - with rose tinted specs.

    Labour has lost Scotland and that results in a starting deficit of about 55 MPs - I doubt either of us will see a labour government again.
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Dunno, When the Scots realise that the SNP has the power to deliver on their aspirations, but has not done so, blaming Westminster instead, that might change.

    Then again the Scots might go independent due to Brexit, possibly.

    The UK electorate will eventually play "the grass is greener" card when the Tories push it too far. If Labour can get its act together by then they will form a government, if not outright, in coalition with the Greens.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    True - but will I live that long?
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    One, or may be two terms after this one. 2025, or 2030 at the latest.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    50/50 I'll be dead by then.

    And the smart money says none of the existing parties will have taken a serious shot at addressing the major problems with the UK economy.
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    I wish I could share your optimism about the Labour Party. With Corbyn as leader and a large grass roots support from Momentum / Socialist Workers / Militant Tendancy or whatever the Trots are calling themselves now, he is /has gained control of the NEC and with Union block votes will control Conference. When he loses in 2020, I can't see him stepping down (no matter what John McConnell said) unless it is for a younger version. I don't see a Neil Kinnock anywhere to fight back, nor the support that would be needed to defeat the Trots.

    Maybe in 2020 we be voting for the Co-Operative Party as the centre left alternative.

    BTW, isn't Jeremy a wonderful advertisment for the benefits of a grammer school education!

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Well 4 years is a long time in politics. You never know.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Well 4 years is a long time in politics. You never know.
    True, and St Anthony may return to deliver them from evil spirits.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by NickW View Post
    Should the Brexit Referendum result be overturned by a) the Courts as they are being currently petitioned and / or b) Parliament; and what would this entail for democracy?
    The legal effect of the referendum is zero, AFAIK. What would be the point of overturning it?
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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    The legal effect of the referendum is zero, AFAIK. What would be the point of overturning it?
    Right and wrong. The Brexit referendum was advisory but it is the democratically expressed wish of the British people to leave the EU. The Court case, AFAIK, is about how that is to be achieved. The petitioners claim that as the legal force to implement Britian's signatory to the Treaty of Rome is by why of the European Communities Act 1972, another Act of Parliament is required to leave. The Government claim that, under Royal Perogrative, they can activate Article 50 of the Treaty of Maastrict, a successor to that of Rome, without reference to Parliament as it is the wish of the British people. This is a case of where strict legality meets popular democracy and how it interacts with Common Law.

    If the former is held, then Parliament may decide not to approve any Government Bill to allow them to activate Article 50. In that case, the peoples' elected representatives will have decided to ignore the wishes of the electorate.

    Back to my original question, where does that leave democracy?

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by NickW View Post

    Back to my original question, where does that leave democracy?

    Nick
    As we operate representative democracy, in a healthy place. With the representatives doing their job of looking after the best interests of the UK.
    A two tier system where elected representatives are handed the ****ty end of a stick by popular but uninformed, nay ignorant, voters is an unworkable position, and should not be repeated.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Parliament can vote any time it likes for England to leave the EU, and if it does, that's the law, right? Indicative of the constitutional power. Does Royal Prerogative mean that the monarch has the same power? Whoever exercises first, wins?

    OTOH if neither Parliament nor the monarch do nothing, who can force them to? If no one, then England remains in EU.

    Which means the legal force of the referendum was . . .

    And so the effect on democracy is . . .
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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Osbourn, this is what Royal Prerogative is:
    In domestic matters, the Royal Prerogative covers

    • the issuing and withdrawal of passports
    • the appointment and dismissal of ministers
    • the appointment of Queen's Counsel
    • the granting of honours
    • the appointment and regulation of the civil service
    • the commissioning of officers in the armed forces
    • the dissolution of Parliament
    • the calling of elections



    In foreign affairs, it covers

    • the declaration of war
    • the making of treaties
    • the recognition of foreign states
    • the accreditation of diplomats

    It also allows the deployment of armed forces in the UK and abroad.
    The Royal Prerogative of Mercy used to enable the withdrawal of the death penalty, but now allows changes in sentences.

    Most of which, including foreign affairs are devolved to parliament or the relevant bit of the Civil Service. The monarch basically rubber stamps the decisions by signifying assent. So your question "Whoever exercises first, wins?" is a nonsense.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    A two tier system where elected representatives are handed the ****ty end of a stick by popular but uninformed, nay ignorant, voters is an unworkable position, and should not be repeated.
    And where would that leave a future referendum on Scottish independence, or indeed one on Irish reunification?

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Sort out the uninformed, nay ignorant bit.
    Or use the same mechanism that created the Union in the first place I was of the opinion that if the Scots had voted to leave, they would have had the same level of competence in government and financial/economic strength as they had during the Darien disaster.

    Irish reunification would be a question put to people who are better informed on the subject than the Brexit supporters were.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Cameron resigns as May dismantles his cabinet.
    Interesting.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Cameron resigns as May dismantles his cabinet.
    Interesting.
    But not surprising - very few ex-prime ministers have hung around on the back benches - MacMillan and Heath - others usually head for the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Someday, I'm going to settle down and be a grumpy old man.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    I am too heartbroken by the wilful destruction of my country by a bunch of savages to say anything useful.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    We have had/have 2 ex pm's, both rolled by their own parties, hang about sniping from the back bench. Not helpful, but then the weren't trying to be.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Cameron resigns as May dismantles his cabinet.
    Interesting.
    Lots of reasons have been attributed in the papers by "connected sources" as to why Doubleback Dave has quit three months after saying he would stay on untill the 2020 election. He most probably had an offer he can't refuse. Time to start the sweep stake, the offer's from-

    Goldman Sacks 2/1
    Tony Bliar Associates 9/2
    10/1 bar.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    I think we should have another referendum.

    This is an excellent way of achieving change in issue politics, where an issue is one less important than 'the economy' or the NHS where out political parties obsess in some kind of 70's time warp, and never achieve results.

    It should say:

    "Should we compulsary purchase farmland and build 500,000 extra new homes, abolish second home ownership and allow home ownership only by UK nationals. Yes or No?"


    Ed

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    ^You cannot answer "Yes" or "No" to three different questions by putting your mark in only one box.

    Silly Billy.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    I am too heartbroken by the wilful destruction of my country by a bunch of savages to say anything useful.

    zzzzzzzzzzzzz................zzzzzzzzzzzzz

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    What do people think of the proposed Boundary changes? Quite a lot of informed reporting by the BBC here
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32695546
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37347650
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37351172

    Expect a lot of squabbles in the Westminster village.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by NickW View Post
    What do people think of the proposed Boundary changes? Quite a lot of informed reporting by the BBC here
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32695546
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37347650
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37351172

    Expect a lot of squabbles in the Westminster village.

    Nick
    The squabbles have begun
    This
    Reality Check verdict: The review is based on the December 2015 register, which has about 1.75 million fewer voters than had registered by June 2016. If the June 2016 register had been used, there would have been two more MPs in London, two fewer in Scotland, one more in the south west of England and one fewer in Northern Ireland.
    Labour frontbencher Jon Ashworth has told BBC Radio 4 the proposed constituency boundary changes would mean "proceeding with a boundary review when there's two million people missing from the electoral register - two million people who joined the register ahead of the Brexit referendum"
    is key.
    Islington North is an interesting result.
    I have looked at the proposals, but without knowing the voting demographics amongst the old constituencies it is hard to tell what the net result will be.
    My own MP will have to put in a lot more miles as my constituency grabs half of the one to our northern boundary.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Fat ass bureaucrats love to strut their stuff.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37359196

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    It's all change here as well. Bournemouth at present is 2 constituencies, East and West, with the dividing line allmost through the town centre. The proposals are to have one Bournemouth constituency, with north Bournemouth being hived off and amalgamated with Christchurch. This means the breakup of the old Christchurch and New Forest constituency which seems sensible as currently it crosses the Dorset / Hampshire border. Hopefully we could even see the back of Christopher Chope, the current Christchurch MP, who is somewhat to the far right of Gengis Khan. The two current Bournemouth MPs are Tobias Ellwood and Conor Burns who are pretty moderate.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Did you know that there is a petition up and running asking for the work to be redone with the correct number of voters, e.g. including the number who signed up to vote in the Brexit referendum, a difference of 2million voters. 55,600 have signed already.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    Did you know that there is a petition up and running asking for the work to be redone with the correct number of voters, e.g. including the number who signed up to vote in the Brexit referendum, a difference of 2million voters. 55,600 have signed already.
    No, I didn't, thanks. I've no problem with the work being redone as long as the June 2016 register is the Final cut-off. I would not want the work to be redone and then people say that the December 2016 register should have been used because (insert reason). Bournemouth Council have already contacted me about registering for this years register and I have replied.

    In short, all to agree on a cut-off, redo it, adopt it.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit


  34. #34
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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    I can't access the FT's link given since it's behind a paywall.

    I think everybody acepts that the negotiations to leave the EU will not be easy. In essence it depends, like all negotiations, on goodwill on both sides. If Juncker et al have their way it will be a very messy and acrimonious divorce. If Merkel has her way it will be fairly amicable. One thing it won't be though is the end of the world as we know it. Project Fear failed to persuade the voters, negative campaigning seldom wins. The Remainers should have talked up the advantages and Dave C should not have been so cocky.

    I've said before that parliament can overrule the Referendum but is that wise? At present Remainers are being seen, at least round here, as sore losers. Boy George is leading a bigger sulk than Ted Heath. Does the man have a (political) death wish? His seat is proposed to be abolished and Tory Party HQ will deny him another if he continues like this.

    The longer the uncertainity goes on, the more polarised opinions are going to get. May has either to trigger Article 50 or arrange a vote in the House quickly to get a definitive answer. She must be aware that the Witney by election on 20th October is a golden opportunity for UKIP, despite Dave C having a 25,000+ majority last year. She must move quickly if it's not all going to end in tears again.

    BTW The latest poll in today's Times gave C39%, L30%, UKIP 13%, LD 8% others 10%.

    Nick

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    Default Re: British Politics Post Brexit

    Too true. To somewhat mangle a phrase "They've had an all mighty kick in the ballots" and are still recovering from it. They are just not used to having their opinions contradicted, not least by unwashed plebs!

    Nick

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