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Thread: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

  1. #1
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    Default Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I read a rather scary article about 10 years ago about this volcano, and how an earthquake might cause half the bloody thing to slide into the Atlantic, creating a huge tsunami that literally could wipe out the East Coast of the US.

    Welp:

    Briefing Update: Continuing the seismic swarm in the Volcano Vieja Summit (La Palma, Canary Islands) with more than 1100 low-magnitude localized earthquakes.

    From 04:18 p.m. (Canary Time) on Saturday, September 11, 2021, the Canary Islands Seismic Network, which manages the Volcanological Institute of Canary Islands (INVOLCAN), is recording a new swarm of low-magnitude seismic events in Old Summit Volcano area. Of the numerous seismic events detected, more than 1100 earthquakes have been located until 12:00 p.m. Canary Time today, September 16, 2021. The hypocentres are under the Volcano of Old Summit generally deep between 9 and 12 km, although on the last day there are some earthquakes located at a depth of less than 5 km. The maximum magnitude observed so far has been 3,4 on the Richter scale.

    The figure shows the hypocenters of this new swarm in variable color depending on the date of occurrence. The yellow star indicates the strongest earthquake, with magnitude 3,4, recorded on September 14 at 07:00 p.m. Canary Time. A migration of westward seismicity can be observed in recent days.

    In recent years, the Volcano of Old Summit has experienced 10 seismic swarms including the one that started this past Saturday (1 in 2017, 1 in the 2018 in 2020 in And 3 in 2021). The earthquakes of the latter swarm are more superficial than previous seismic swarm, where the depth ranged between 20 and 30 km. Without a doubt the current seismic swarm represents a significant change in the activity of the Volcano Old Summit and is related to a process of magmatic intrusion beneath La Palma Island.

    INVOLCAN will continue to be updated on the evolution of this new seismic swarm at the Volcano Summit. Remembering that it can't be ruled out to intensify the seismicity felt in the coming days, depending on the evolution of activity.

    The current situation of the volcanic traffic light is in AMARILLO for the municipalities of El Paso, Los Llanos de Aridane, Mazo and Fuencaliente de la Palma; therefore, keep an eye on the information provided by the relevant Civil Protection authorities.
    Gerard>
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I remember those documentaries. Not so much half of the volcano, more like half of the island.

    Go west youn man, go west.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Thu, 16 Sep 2021, 09:09
    09:09 AM | BY: T
    Recent quakes under La Palma (image: IGN)

    The earthquake swarm has slowed down significantly over the past 24 hours, but it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether the crisis might soon be ending or whether it will pick up again in intensity.
    Seismic activity continued to migrate slightly to the northwest and quakes were mostly at depths of around 8 km, although there were also 20 quakes at only 1-3 km to the surface. The maximum accumulated deformation reached about 6 cm by yesterday, the National Geographic Institute (IGN) reported. The rate of deformation has decreased, suggesting that the recent pulse of new magma intrusion might be over.
    Since the start of the earthquake swarm, IGN has recorded more than 4200 quakes, of which 920 were strong enough to be located.

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/lap...-activity.html

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    South Georgia:
    \
    \
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I remember that story, any update on how probable it is? Like the Cascadia Fault is likely to give another big one sometime in this or the next century. Is there similar periodicity in the Canaries?

    6-8 hrs notice, man that would be one traffic jam.
    Last edited by LeeG; 09-17-2021 at 01:04 PM.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by oznabrag View Post
    Are those numbers the hours it takes for the tsunami to reach that point?
    Will

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Morocco, Spain, France, England,,yikes

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    It would be a shame to start over in Florida….

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Except the graphic is of the 1755 Lisbon quake.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    thx

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by PatrickXavier View Post
    Except the graphic is of the 1755 Lisbon quake.
    If the western slope of Las Palmas slips into the Atlantic, the tsunami will be far more powerful than that one.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Volcano on Canary Island La Palma erupts, spewing ash and lava into national park

    Volcano on Canary Island La Palma erupts, spewing ash and lava into national park



    A volcano on the Spanish island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands, has erupted, spewing fountains of lava and ash.
    It sits in the Cumbre Vieja national park, and had been stable since 1971.
    The island had been on alert for a possible eruption for the past week - with nearby residents being advised to evacuate.
    Canary Islands President Angel Victor Torres told TVE that no injuries had been reported so far.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-58618487
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    this all sounds normal for the place.

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-...lows-down.html

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Looks like a lot of property is in the way of the lava flows.
    Live camera feeds on YouTube- Reuters etc.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm


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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I’m reading this from wiki as I sit about 6’ above high tide at my favorite coffee shop.

    “The size of such tsunamis depends both on the geological details of the landslide (such as its Froude number[25]) and also on assumptions about the hydrodynamics of the model used to simulate tsunami generation, thus they have a large margin of uncertainty. Generally, landslide-induced tsunamis decay more quickly with distance than earthquake-induced tsunamis,[13] as the former, often having a dipole structure at the source,[18] tend to spread out radially and has a shorter wavelength while the latter disperses little as it propagates away perpendicularly to the source fault.[21]

    I remember seeing a episode devoted to this on one of those BS channels (discovery?).
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    A fresh vent seems to have appeared, lower than the original ones. It is chucking out another lava flow.
    Over 100 houses destroyed so far, and lots more in the line of fire.
    Last edited by birlinn; 09-20-2021 at 01:31 PM.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm


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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    btw the model that predicted a worst case tsunami has come under some criticism in the last couple decades.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre...tsunami_hazard

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Local mayor estimates around 300 houses destroyed. (BBC)

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    https://www.newsweek.com/will-la-pal...arning-1630666

    Subsequent studies published after the 2001 research diminished the threat expressed in the paper or dismissed it entirely. In a study published the following year, George Pararas-Carayannis, editor of the journal Science of Tsunami Hazards: wrote: "The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated. No mega-tsunamis can be expected."

    In the 2002 paper, Pararas-Carayannis suggested that several incorrect assumptions in the modeling of volcano eruptions and slope failures and their link to tsunamis led to overestimates of the "far-field effects" of the natural disasters.

    Janine Krippner, a volcanologist at the Global Volcanism Program, highlighted that the fear surrounding the idea of a "mega-tsunami" hitting the East Coast is an example of a wider problem.

    "This scenario has been discredited by researchers but it is rampant right now. Why? Because we are drawn to what scares us even when it is not real," she told Newsweek. "Headlines take the smallest hint of truth and turn it into an irresistible boogeyman, causing real stress and harm around the world.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Why am I thinking of Krakatoa (sp)?

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Krakatoa….the cork in the champagne bottle!!
    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

    "Freighters on the nod on the surface of the bay, One of these days we're going to sail away"
    Bruce Cockburn

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Am I right in thinking that as long as you get lots of small eruptions/quakes, then a big one is less likely? Sort of safety valve?

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I wonder how far off shore I would have to get to avoid it?
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Haberland View Post
    I wonder how far off shore I would have to get to avoid it?
    Odd reports indicate not far, just a big swell. Problem is when that reaches shallow water and over runs the land, breaking.

  30. #30
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I’m on a Myrtle Beach layover till 7p. Should I be worried?
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    I’m on a Myrtle Beach layover till 7p. Should I be worried?
    Sure- watch out for that guy with a gun.
    Last edited by birlinn; 09-22-2021 at 12:26 PM.

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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by CK 17 View Post
    I’m on a Myrtle Beach layover till 7p. Should I be worried?
    Sorry, not exactly my favorite layover. An odd mix of rednecks (Ohio rednecks too), black bikers and golfers. Murrel’s inlet just south of MB is much nicer. Old fishing town.

    This song kind of explains it. Strong lyrics, be warned.

    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

  33. #33
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    What kind of boat would be handy should this event come to pass?
    If he ever drinks the brew of 10 tanna leaves, he will become a monster the likes of which the world has never seen



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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    Quote Originally Posted by Rigadog View Post
    What kind of boat would be handy should this event come to pass?
    Any boat would do..............as long as it is in the Pacific.
    I once thought I was wrong, but I was wrong, I wasn't wrong.

  35. #35
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    Default Re: Uh oh. More intense Las Palma volcano earthquake swarm

    I think that any boat will do as long as she is in deep water well away from a coast.
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