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Thread: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

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    Default Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Here's an analysis:

    Philip Bump: “Every time a candidate says something that sounds too good to be true, The Post’s Glenn Kessler and team try to determine whether it is. By now, The Post’s fact-checking team has amassed more than 100 ratings of statements from the 2016 candidates, allowing us, at last, to do a bit of meta-analysis

    The Post’s Glenn Kessler and his colleague Michelle Ye Hee Lee “issue a certain number of ‘pinocchios’ to candidate statements, ranging from zero to four. Zero pinocchios means that the statement was true. Four? Quite the opposite.”

    “We took all of the fact checks that the Post has done for all of the 2016 candidates and compared them.”

    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    is lindsay graham still a candidate? i didn't know. . .
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    So, wait. The data they're amassing is average score for statements that "sound to good to be true"? That's a really warped metric for how much a candidate lies.

    Candidate A says 100 things, all of which sound suspect.
    Candidate B says 100 things, 99 of which are clearly true, and 1 which sounds suspect.

    The team fact-checks the 101 statements and find that Candidate A's statements are all sort of true and get scored a 2. Candidate B's 1 statement is found to be a complete fabrication.

    According to this analysis, Candidate A scores a 2 and Canddiate B scores a 4.

    Would you really say Candidate B lies more than Candidate A?
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    So Sanders and Clinton are slightly more dishonest than Cruz an Fiorina. What a country!

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Being a NYer living in NJ I find it remarkable that Chris Christie has the lowest score. Obviously the rest of the country hasn't heard of Bridgegate or dealt with his local politics.
    This post is temporary and my disappear at the discretion of the managment

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    I deleted the post but you have saved it for eternity.

    I was going to expand it into a generalized rant on the mainstream media, but it is all so very depressing that is just not worth it. I will leave it to say that the WaPo is not even a shadow of a ghost of its former self.
    Steve Martinsen

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Here's an analysis:
    What is the vertical number out of one hundred ie a percentage?

    If so, all are within 2% and 4% iE a 2% band.

    If Huckerbee and Graham are omitted, it is a (2 -3.25) 1.25% range.

    What is the general percentage of accuracy of a 'survey' ?


    I am reminded of :

    There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain


    BTW Norman, do you believe in the C&P you posted?

    .
    Last edited by Rum_Pirate; 10-01-2015 at 09:29 AM.
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by xflow7 View Post
    So, wait. The data they're amassing is average score for statements that "sound to good to be true"? That's a really warped metric for how much a candidate lies.

    Candidate A says 100 things, all of which sound suspect.
    Candidate B says 100 things, 99 of which are clearly true, and 1 which sounds suspect.

    The team fact-checks the 101 statements and find that Candidate A's statements are all sort of true and get scored a 2. Candidate B's 1 statement is found to be a complete fabrication.

    According to this analysis, Candidate A scores a 2 and Canddiate B scores a 4.

    Would you really say Candidate B lies more than Candidate A?
    I didn't post this because I believe it to be any sort of accurate and scientific analysis of truth-telling. Read the thing more closely: it's a ranking of 'pinnochios', which is a subjective judgment about the truth of a statement... and it's NOT based on 100 statements from each candidate, just 100 total statements. ANY pinnochio is a judgment of being less than truthful... it's the numberr of pinnochios that indicate a judgment of severity.

    Yes, it's entirely possible that one of the candidates made just 5 statements, versus another candidate's 2 statements, but the second candidate's statements were all 'four pinnochios', and the first candidate's statements were only one or two pinnochios. No, it's NOT definitive.... it's subjective.

    You CAN, however, go to the site, read the statements, and observe the ratings. Politifact.com is probably a better fact-checking site than WaPo's.... but you can decide if the ratings are correct, or not.

    For the record, I think that politifact.com is pretty good, but there ARE some cases where I disagree with their judgment... mostly in situations where politifact.com takes a statement far too literally.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe ( Cold Spring on Hudson ) View Post
    Being a NYer living in NJ I find it remarkable that Chris Christie has the lowest score. Obviously the rest of the country hasn't heard of Bridgegate or dealt with his local politics.
    .

    A democrat led investigation cleared CC as there was no evidence.

    This Forum member has me on ignore and is content to stay uninformed.

    Another Liberal poster had started many threads trying to indict CC before any evidence was found in a effort to remove CC from Politics.

    Looks as though he succeeded in his propaganda to trick low information voters.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I didn't post this because I believe it to be any sort of accurate and scientific analysis of truth-telling.
    i rest my case.
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I didn't post this because I believe it to be any sort of accurate and scientific analysis of truth-telling..
    standard norm troll fail disclosure
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by bobbys View Post
    A democrat led investigation cleared CC as there was no evidence.
    Well, in that case, Hillary Clinton is completely innocent of any wrongdoing in Benghazi, since there is no evidence.....

    ....but that's not stopping the whacko Republicans from wasting MILLIONS of tax dollars in the longest congressional 'investigation' since Watergate, is it?
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    standard norm troll fail disclosure
    Like you never saw a thread which was subjective in nature?
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I didn't post this because I believe it to be any sort of accurate and scientific analysis of truth-telling. Read the thing more closely: it's a ranking of 'pinnochios', which is a subjective judgment about the truth of a statement... and it's NOT based on 100 statements from each candidate, just 100 total statements. ANY pinnochio is a judgment of being less than truthful... it's the numberr of pinnochios that indicate a judgment of severity.

    Yes, it's entirely possible that one of the candidates made just 5 statements, versus another candidate's 2 statements, but the second candidate's statements were all 'four pinnochios', and the first candidate's statements were only one or two pinnochios. No, it's NOT definitive.... it's subjective.

    You CAN, however, go to the site, read the statements, and observe the ratings. Politifact.com is probably a better fact-checking site than WaPo's.... but you can decide if the ratings are correct, or not.

    For the record, I think that politifact.com is pretty good, but there ARE some cases where I disagree with their judgment... mostly in situations where politifact.com takes a statement far too literally.
    It is very unscientific since you say it is 'subjective'.

    In other words it is a load of Codswallop.

    This must be one of those 10% posts of yours.



    So why post it here?
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    I didn't post this because I believe it to be any sort of accurate and scientific analysis of truth-telling. Read the thing more closely: it's a ranking of 'pinnochios', which is a subjective judgment about the truth of a statement... and it's NOT based on 100 statements from each candidate, just 100 total statements. ANY pinnochio is a judgment of being less than truthful... it's the numberr of pinnochios that indicate a judgment of severity.

    Yes, it's entirely possible that one of the candidates made just 5 statements, versus another candidate's 2 statements, but the second candidate's statements were all 'four pinnochios', and the first candidate's statements were only one or two pinnochios. No, it's NOT definitive.... it's subjective.

    You CAN, however, go to the site, read the statements, and observe the ratings. Politifact.com is probably a better fact-checking site than WaPo's.... but you can decide if the ratings are correct, or not.

    For the record, I think that politifact.com is pretty good, but there ARE some cases where I disagree with their judgment... mostly in situations where politifact.com takes a statement far too literally.
    I know it's not based on 100 statements from each candidate; I just happened to choose 100 from each in my example.

    My beef isn't that the ratings are subjective. It's that the data as presented are kind of meaningless as indicators of how much a candidate lies if it's not normalized in some way against (ideally) the total number of statements a candidate makes, or at least by the number of fact-checks that are made on that candidate. I realize that they have also shown the number of fact-checked statements in a separate graph, and have included that bubble-graph histogram from which you can glean some info about total number of statements that they initially found dubious enough to investigate.

    But the title of the piece is "The least- and most-factual 2016 candidates, charted" and not a single of those charts, nor even the charts taken together, really speaks to how much of what a candidate says is true.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    It is very unscientific since you say it is 'subjective'.
    It IS subjective. I NEVER claimed it was scientific. It represents the opinion of the WaPo fact checkers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    In other words it is a load of Codswallop.
    You have always been free to ignore it.... but you have no reason to criticize me for posting it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    So why post it here?
    Because SOME people might find it interesting. I wasn't aware that YOU, personally, had to find it interesting, in order for it to be worthy of posting.... guess I didn't know that posts needed to be passed by you for approval, first.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    It IS subjective. I NEVER claimed it was scientific. It represents the opinion of the WaPo fact checkers.

    You have always been free to ignore it.... but you have no reason to criticize me for posting it.

    Because SOME people might find it interesting. I wasn't aware that YOU, personally, had to find it interesting, in order for it to be worthy of posting.... guess I didn't know that posts needed to be passed by you for approval, first.

    On the basis of your statement, likewise I trust that you (and others) will ignore my posts and cease criticising me for making any posts I make.
    Somehow I suspect you and others will not. Which will be hypocritical of those that do.


    [Paraphrased from another NB post] N(orm)B, why not just face the simple truth? You posted a C&P, and a list of bilge participants read it, and strongly disagreed with it. Some were possibly offended by the implications of the stuff in the C&P, others attacked the truthfulness of it.


    You made one of your 10% posts that S.V. Airlie
    refers to.

    That's life. Get over it.



    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    On the basis of your statement, likewise I trust that you (and others) will ignore my posts and cease criticising me for making any posts I make.
    You obviously misunderstand. I certainly don't expect people to refrain from criticizing the content of the post....

    ..but I DO expect them to refrain from personally criticizing ME for posting it.

    You take exception to the content? FINE! Criticize all you want!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    [Paraphrased from another NB post] N(orm)B, why not just face the simple truth? You posted a C&P, and a list of bilge participants read it, and strongly disagreed with it. Some were possibly offended by the implications of the stuff in the C&P, others attacked the truthfulness of it.


    The only people you have a beef with are those who criticized you for posting it. You have NO basis to object to those who disagreed with the content of the post.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    You obviously misunderstand. I certainly don't expect people to refrain from criticizing the content of the post....

    ..but I DO expect them to refrain from personally criticizing ME for posting it.

    You take exception to the content? FINE! Criticize all you want!



    [/COLOR]The only people you have a beef with are those who criticized you for posting it. You have NO basis to object to those who disagreed with the content of the post.

    We concur, other than to points I made as it being unscientific, and I repeat On the basis of your statement, likewise I trust that you (and others) will ignore my posts and cease personally criticising ME for making any posts I make.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rum_Pirate View Post
    We concur, other than to points I made as it being unscientific, and I repeat On the basis of your statement, likewise I trust that you (and others) will ignore my posts and cease personally criticising ME for making any posts I make.
    Post whatever you like. If it's a stupid post, I'll undoubtedly criticize it, not you.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    Post whatever you like. If it's a stupid post, I'll undoubtedly criticize it, not you.

    I have absolutely no problem or issue with that.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    I agree with the critics here about the methodology. A more rigorous approach would make the Republicans look much worse...
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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    I would actually take it one step further. Don't comment at all on posts made by WBF members who make it a habit of criticizing other members.
    Tom

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    I believe this so-called meta-analysis less than I believe the racoon story on another thread.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Norman,
    If you were to descend to the sea floor in a submersible that was tested this way , would you be confident you would not die?

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by paulf View Post
    Norman,
    If you were to descend to the sea floor in a submersible that was tested this way , would you be confident you would not die?
    No, I wouldn't... and neither would I look to the OP as the sole and exclusive criteria for deciding how to cast my vote in the next election.

    Sheeeeesh.... some people take some things WAYYYYYY too seriously! It's just a graphic, and just an opinion, fer chrissakes.... chill out!
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    . . . Sheeeeesh.... some people take some things WAYYYYYY too seriously! It's just a graphic, and just an opinion, fer chrissakes.... chill out!
    Tough isn't it.

    I sympathise with you.
    Enjoy a good rum on the rocks at sunset.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    No, I wouldn't... and neither would I look to the OP as the sole and exclusive criteria for deciding how to cast my vote in the next election.

    Sheeeeesh.... some people take some things WAYYYYYY too seriously! It's just a graphic, and just an opinion, fer chrissakes.... chill out!
    If a RWN posted something like this you would be all over it like white on rice...

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    If you torture the data enough, it will eventually admit to anything...

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    The only reason Hillary is on the low end is because she is a better liar than the rest.
    State a single thing that Mrs. Clinton lied about. And say why the truth is different. Use objective facts to support your claim.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Memphis Mike View Post
    The only reason Hillary is on the low end is because she is a better liar than the rest.
    Check her out here:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalit...llary-clinton/

    Then compare her performance to the other candidates. EVERY candidate has made statements judged to be partially true, partially false, totally false, and even 'pants on fire'. Based on politifact's judgments, compared to other candidates, she comes out quite good.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Hell, I didn't even know the Democrat candidates had said anything yet.
    "Simple minds discuss people, Average minds discuss things, and Great minds discuss ideas".

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by BrianW View Post
    Hell, I didn't even know the Democrat candidates had said anything yet.
    It probably helps to look for what they say.... lack of looking is probably the reason for not knowing they've said anything.

    These days, the media prioritizes sensationalism... which is why Donald Trump's comments, containing absolutely NO substance, no policy, no details, get extensively covered.
    "Fact is that which enough people believe. Truth is determined by how fervently they believe it."
    --- Charles Pierce







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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by paulf View Post
    If a RWN posted something like this you would be all over it like white on rice...
    There you have it.
    Rattling the teacups.

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    Default Re: Which Presidential candidate lies the most?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bernstein View Post
    It probably helps to look for what they say.... lack of looking is probably the reason for not knowing they've said anything.

    These days, the media prioritizes sensationalism... which is why Donald Trump's comments, containing absolutely NO substance, no policy, no details, get extensively covered.
    If I had said that, I would have swapped "media" for "Bilge".
    "Simple minds discuss people, Average minds discuss things, and Great minds discuss ideas".

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