Will the US and the UK go to war with Russia?

[genglandoh]

Or will they break their treaty with the Ukraine?

A treaty signed in 1994 by the US and Britain could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country.
Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz2um62TnBu

Ukraine pleads for Britain and US to come to its rescue as Russia accused of 'invasion'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-invasion.html

[peterAustralia]

No.

[htom]

The USA? With 0 as CiC?

[Jim Bow]

No.
There is no treaty. Treaties must be approved by Congress.
A "memorandum" was signed by the US, UK, and Russia.
Not sure what constitutes a memorandum, or what the legalities are.

[Ian McColgin]

Hope not. The main goal of getting nukes out of the Ukraine has long happened. There's a long and confusing history down in that area but right now the parts where Russia is posturing are the parts that turn towards Russia and are rejecting the provisional government anyway. Bad stuff happens in nations that let their ethnic tensions get the upper hand and that's where Ukraine is at just now. If Russia acts to protect civilians from some form of terror, not a bad thing. If, as is probably more likely given Putin, Russia uses this as a way to annex part of the Ukraine, a part that was a thousand or so years ago the real start and heart of the Russian kingdom, then things will get very messy.

But western military intervention is nuts. Even if we had a clue as to how to make things better, which we have not, there is no way we can get armed forces into any useful position.

[Gerarddm]

I would hardly think so.

But the more Putin follows his own agenda tactically, the worse off for Russia strategically, as in reduced business investment, etc.

Putin has allowed his KGB innards to get control of his faculties. Obama told him already that we recognize their strategic interests and there are venues for hashing it all out. Putin's willful actions will not play well in the UN.

[Chip-skiff]

Would you like that?

Wars offer a great many business opportunities.

Just ask Dick Cheney.

[skuthorp]

What would Romney have done?
Not go to war I'd say. Maybe look at the business side though………………..

[LeeG]

Will Geng find peace?

[slug]

Need to keep an eye on the situation. if Russia escalates the crisis with drone strikes,, rendition, water boarding, collateral damage,.....then something must be done.

I see a russia ship has just made a port call in Cuba..they say to pick up supplies...perhaps surplus water boards.

Be alert

[skuthorp]

Need to keep an eye on the situation. if Russia escalates the crisis with drone strikes,, rendition, water boarding, collateral damage,.....then something must be done.

I see a russia ship has just made a port call in Cuba..they say to pick up supplies...perhaps surplus water boards.

Be alert

Irony becomes you slug…………..

[PeterSibley]

Would you like that?

Wars offer a great many business opportunities.

Just ask Dick Cheney.

It's pretty obvious Russia doesn't have any Weapons of Mass Destruction otherwise the Right would be baying for war.

[slug]

imagen

[TomF]

I certainly hope not, Geng.

[Chris Coose]

The USA? With 0 as CiC?

0, you say?
You just aren't used to a Commander in Chief who might consider diplomacy as a primary tool.

Your heros lie and provoke to get into battle for the riches, while pushing our youth into the meat grinder.

Obama has his hands full keeping the hawks off the lawn, screeching for blood.

[SMARTINSEN]

There is no treaty, nothing was ever ratified by the Senate. There is simply a memorandum of understanding, surely no military obligation.

This is moronic, are you really pining for WWIII? Nuclear holocaust? You had better damned well hope that "O" does nothing.

[HeliPilot]

The solution seems simple, however. Just as Czechoslovakia did after the Soviet Union collapsed; form two separate countries. The West with it's cultural ties can go the path to the EU, the East with it's Russian ties can align with Russia. People seem to be as politically and culturally gregarious as cattle at feeding time.

[genglandoh]

The solution seems simple, however. Just as Czechoslovakia did after the Soviet Union collapsed; form two separate countries. The West with it's cultural ties can go the path to the EU, the East with it's Russian ties can align with Russia. People seem to be as politically and culturally gregarious as cattle at feeding time.

You are assuming Putin will go along with having 2 countries.

[HeliPilot]

True, but even a former KGB agent with natural 'hawkish' tendencies must realize that dealing with some sort of on-going insurrection in western Ukraine would not be in Russia's, or anyone else's, best interests.

[slug]

Gee...what about the Hungarian Ukrainians...will they get their own country to ?

[John of Phoenix]

If Putin wants to put himself, his military, political and financial assets in the midst of a civil war, let him. He learned as much from Russia's experience in Afghanistan as we learned from ours in Vietnam - nothing.

[genglandoh]

If Putin wants to put himself, his military, political and financial assets in the midst of a civil war, let him. He learned as much from Russia's experience in Afghanistan as we learned from ours in Vietnam - nothing.

The Ukraine is mostly open spaces easy to control.
Afghanistan is mostly mountains hard to control.
Vietnam is mostly jungle also hard to control.

[Gerarddm]

Query: would Medvedev have pulled this? For some reason I think he is more rational than Putin.

The more Putin pushes, the greater the blowback economically and diplomatically. It's not going to be fun to be Russian for awhile.

[John of Phoenix]

The Ukraine is mostly open spaces easy to control.
Afghanistan is mostly mountains hard to control.
Vietnam is mostly jungle also hard to control

Geography isn't demographics. I see you've learned nothing as well.

[Steve McMahon]

Be alert

There are already too many lert's in the world.

[slug]

I heard on the BBC that America may retaliate with the Magnitsky Act, applying it to Russian politicians who authorized the intrusion into Ukraine

G8 meeting in Russia looks canceled.

[NickW]

I hope not, we haven't the forces to do anything.

It appears to me that Putin has defined his own version of the Monroe Doctrine, Russia can do whatever it deems necessary within it's sphere of influence.

Nick

[Reynard38]

If Russia enters the Ukraine lets invade Cuba.
We get beaches and rum, and it's all 90 miles from Key West.

Seems like a good trade.

[JimD]

No, the US and UK will not go to war with Russia. What are you, crazy?

[JimD]

bump

[genglandoh]

No, the US and UK will not go to war with Russia. What are you, crazy?

I also do not think the US or the UK will go to war with Russia.

I just wonder now many people knew we had a treaty (or agreement) with the Ukraine and the world is going to view us as weak and not trustworthy.

[JimD]

I also do not think the US or the UK will go to war with Russia.

I just wonder now many people knew we had a treaty (or agreement) with the Ukraine and the world is going to view us as weak and not trustworthy.

The world already views the US as untrustworthy. Unless you meant you personally

[skuthorp]

Accidental war is the danger but I wouldn't put it past Putin to stage a 'Gulf of Tonkin' type charade to justify interference. In fact he may have already. I don't think shooting war will not be to the Ukranian's advantage in the long term but it depends on whether they are content to be patient. Russia may be working on the 'possession is 9/10 of the law' principle.

[Boater14]

The notion that we and the Brits would have obligated ourselves to go to war for Ukraine shows a slim grasp of how things work. asking how medvedev would have handled this is really telling. Medvedev was holding the seat for Putin.

[PeterSibley]

If Russia enters the Ukraine lets invade Cuba.
We get beaches and rum, and it's all 90 miles from Key West.

Seems like a good trade.

You tried that once and blew it.

[Arizona Bay]

If we just lifted the sanctions on Cuba, I don't think we'd need to invade.

[WX]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431
Putin is playing a dangerous game in my opinion. As for the West going to war, I think it would opening the gates of hell.

[PeterSibley]

Russia has nucs and Putin , there won't be a war with the West. The Russian version of the Munroe Doctrine at play.

[Gerarddm]

Fareed Zakaria agrees with me: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn....sia/?hpt=hp_t1

[Boater14]

This is a longshot and I may be wrong. Putin might be like Palin and not read the papers but think he might be aware that our armed forces are reeling from over ten years of continuous combat? Maybe we should threaten to cut off wheat sales. Think the tough talking pols from the wheat belt can sell that to their owners....agribusiness? This is very complicated stuff. Obamas going to do exactly what I want him to do....nothing.

[PeterSibley]

Russia has nucs and Putin , there won't be a war with the West. The Russian version of the Munroe Doctrine at play.

Russia has another weapon, all Western Europe's gas supplies . Any talk of a trade embargo is a joke.

[paulf]

Russia has another weapon, all Western Europe's gas supplies . Any talk of a trade embargo is a joke.

What are they ( the Russians) going to do with the gas? Eat it? Seems to me they need the commerce as much as Europe needs the gas.

[Ian McColgin]

Another good reason for not getting in this one is that we cannot be sure of what side is about what anyway. The provisional government has more than a whiff of fascism about it, the alleged sniper crimes against the previous administration are very peculiar and the snipers may have been provocateurs, not government agents. Or not. Hard to know but there were a lot of western right leaning forces in the run up to the coup. So much of the Ukrainian military is defecting that the whole bit is too weird.

[oznabrag]

If we just lifted the sanctions on Cuba, I don't think we'd need to invade.

Give that man a (Cuban) cigar!!

Of course, it would take cooperation from the idiots who dominate the House...

If it could be done by executive order, it looks like a master stroke, at first blush.

[SMARTINSEN]

Russia has nucs and Putin , there won't be a war with the West. The Russian version of the Munroe Doctrine at play.

I agree completely.

[skuthorp]

Fareed Zakaria agrees with me: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn....sia/?hpt=hp_t1

A very pertinent piece, especially the last two para's.
As regards treaties are concerned, they get ripped up on a regular basis by the most powerful party to the contract when it suits, and ignored when it suits, and brutally enforced when it suits.

[PeterSibley]

What are they ( the Russians) going to do with the gas? Eat it? Seems to me they need the commerce as much as Europe needs the gas.

How long could the Europeans do without the free flow of gas and how long could the Russians survive with a reduced gas income. The answer would take less than a winter to work out.

[Waddie]

Putin will do what he wants, and the Russian people are tough enough to survive some disruption in their income. The West, however, can't do without that gas. I favor a hands off foreign policy, so I approve of Obama's restraint. However, I do wish he'd quit being such a blowhard. And that hands off policy does embolden every ambitious, unscrupulous jerk of a leader to make a grab.

regards,
Waddie

[slug]

Putin will do what he wants, and the Russian people are tough enough to survive some disruption in their income. The West, however, can't do without that gas. I favor a hands off foreign policy, so I approve of Obama's restraint. However, I do wish he'd quit being such a blowhard. And that hands off policy does embolden every ambitious, unscrupulous jerk of a leader to make a grab.

regards,
Waddie

Actually the Russian people are fed up with poverty. One of the reasons Putin is strong arming Ukraine is to set an example and warn his own Russians that street protests aren't very wise.

The average Russian has a very hard life.

[Waddie]

Actually the Russian people are fed up with poverty. One of the reasons Putin is strong arming Ukraine is to set an example and warn his own Russians that street protests aren't very wise.

The average Russian has a very hard life.

I'm sure they do, I didn't comment on that in the post, though, just that they are a tough people and can take it. I think most poor people get fed up with poverty. However, few do much about it, though it can sometimes lead to revolution. I think it would have to get much worse in Russia before anybody revolts. Besides, many Russians like having a strong man in charge. When they do get "fed up" with Putin, they'll put a clone in place. Maybe worse than Putin.

regards,
Waddie