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Thread: Oz Politics.

  1. #28246
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I've done that too, mum and step-dad. Held their hands, brother and I took turns hour on hour.
    We felt it a duty.

  2. #28247
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Chris, had a think about your post.
    Obviously, I know nothing about your locality and if your fire captain says hazard reduction is not viable there I have nothing to add re: your situation. Here, there are always times of the year where it can be done and I guess we’ll continue while that is the case. I’d say a reduction burn which turns into a crown fire was misconceived, to put it politely.
    on land management generally, I recommend Call of the Reed Warblerby Charlie Massie. If you don’t want to part with the price of the book, do a trial subscription to Scribd and read it there. It’s a very good look at regenerative ideas already gaining ground in Oz and with a few reservations about some of the wackier things being tried (and who am I to say whether they actually work not having tried them) it’s very good. For Australia, it is the equal of Aldo Leopold’s Sand County Almanac, or Wendell Berry, or Louis Bromfield, or Ploughman’s Follyfor America.
    I heard Charlie speak last year. The presentation started gloomily, with a lot of nasty graphs, but ended up hopeful.
    Many of the ideas have become de facto government policy via Soils for Life, ​which is great.

  3. #28248
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by RFNK View Post
    Actually, what's going on in NSW Parliament gives us a ray of hope! The Gov has told the Nats to shove their nonsense - go with the policy of protecting koalas or resign all your ministries, and the Nats have backed off. Berejiklian made the koala protection policy non-negotiable (so far, anyway) a criterion for continuing in government. Good on her!

    The bit I love in these discussions is the farmers and loggers continually declaring that `they know best how to protect koalas' - as they've done such a great job of that so far ..... The good farmers do know how to do this, no doubt about that, but the rest? Hang `em.
    I love this quote from the comments in the SMH today:

    With apologies to Churchill...

    Never in the annals of politics have so few underestimated their irrelevance to so many, so catastrophically.
    Jarndyce and Jarndyce

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    Dragon KA93

  4. #28249
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by RFNK View Post
    Thanks to all for your kind thoughts. FIL lost the battle today after 8 months. A really good man, a great friend and a loving father and husband. He'll be sorely missed. End of an era.
    And sorry for your loss Rick. Give my love and condolences to Mrs T as well.
    Jarndyce and Jarndyce

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  5. #28250
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Thanks Duncan!
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  6. #28251
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    AFP have siezed Chinese diplomatic communications and named a Chinese Consular official as more or less spies in the matter concerning the senior policy advisor to a NSW ALP member, and maybe the member himself. Some way togo here, the bypass of normal diplomatic immunity is the involvement of a State MP

    Bejing will not be pleased.

  7. #28252
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Will the state borders ever be open again sans a vaccine?

  8. #28253
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    AFP have siezed Chinese diplomatic communications and named a Chinese Consular official as more or less spies in the matter concerning the senior policy advisor to a NSW ALP member, and maybe the member himself. Some way togo here, the bypass of normal diplomatic immunity is the involvement of a State MP

    Bejing will not be pleased.
    I would imagine they will be most miffed.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  9. #28254
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Anyone got a stray bit of land they'd like 10 times the actual value for?

    Talk to the Feds.

    Now, anyone got a bridge they don't want?

    Edit: AhHa! The land was bougt from a company that is a big donor to the Liberal Party……… They are talking maladministration, They are talking 'lack of departmental ethical behaviour' in not informing their minister. I say bull****! I'd say criminality and corruption myself.

    And it seems that the NBN as edited by the LibNats is not adequate after all….Who knew? Labour did. Now they'll attempt to claim the credit.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-22-2020 at 05:39 PM.

  10. #28255
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Sorry to hear about your loss Rick.
    Best wishes to you and your family.
    Trev
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  11. #28256
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Thanks Trev
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  12. #28257
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Sad to hear Rick and Tracy, condolences from Anne and I.

  13. #28258
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Thanks Jeff and Anne
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  14. #28259
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    There's an area along the shore from us, towards Lemon Tree, where cars, camping, fires etc. are prohibited, and we've been cleaning it jp, protecting it and all that for 30 years. From time to time time kids and adults get down there, party on, smash up the bush, light fires ... all that. We call council, police and RFS. Only the RFS does anything.

    So, two days ago, a bunch of FWITS forced a car down there, set up a tent and lit up the big campfire Heaps of damage. So l ast night I got the cops out but they then refused to go down there as it's council land. We should tell the council to put up more signs ... As usual, cops were useless. So this morning, early, we call the council ranger. Yeah, yeah .... but nothing. Council also useless.

    Later on the car emerged from the bush and took off, along with a bunch of other FWITS parked on the street. So, I decided to go and clean up but noticed smoke down there, so I grabbed a bucket. But once down there, I realised the bush around their camp was now ablaze so I called the RFS. 6 crews, fire investigators and about 5 hectares destroyed - it was windy here today.

    Park in the wrong place in the city, the cops and council hit you with a $200 fine. Light up the bush, the cops and council couldn't care less. If this fire had gone over a ridge, about another 200m, it would have hit tea tree scrub. That would have taken out many homes at Lemon Tree.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  15. #28260
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Negligence on behalf of the police and council especially after last years fires.. hit up the local media and the politicians. Surely a local journalist can embarrass someone into action??
    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

    "Freighters on the nod on the surface of the bay, One of these days we're going to sail away"
    Bruce Cockburn

  16. #28261
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Yep. Using the media is pretty much the only way to go these days. I've advised various people over the years not to go to the media, to sort it out with relevant people, officers etc. But not any more.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  17. #28262
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Dead at 79, Max Merrit. Been on diallisis for the last 13 years.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d08Cnyzi_iw
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ufiWgV0gOc

    I always admired his drummer, Stewie Speers as a musician.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kryV3kNpFL0

  18. #28263
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I spent some idling time today watching a Supreme Court case in Victoria where somebody is mounting a challenge to the curfew provisions. It was pretty interesting watching them doing a whole case through video link, very slow, with lots of repeated questions because of breaking up in the signal etc. and documents having to be placed on the screen and then magnified so that you could read them.

    During the cross examination of the professor who signed off on one of the curfew iterations, the barrister asked her about the accuracy of the Covid PCR test. She said that the false positive rate is very small, and the test is incredibly accurate. There are a couple of papers which have been released (I found them on The Lancet site, so I’m guessing they are at least OK science) and I do not think “incredibly accurate” is a very good description. Note this was written a while ago when cases were low in UK.

    The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 08% and 40%.2, 6 This rate could translate into a significant proportion of false-positive results daily due to the current low prevalence of the virus in the UK population, adversely affecting the positive predictive value of the test.



    ,The problem that arises is that the false positive rate applies to every test not just the ones that return a positive. Lets take a very low false positive rate of 0.1% which is eight times less than the lowest figure suggested (by 43 attempts to quantify it) in the UK. Then if you test 10,000 people, you would expect 10 false positives.





    We know that in fact the figure will vary, but that will be the average. The thing that gets me is that I’m quite sure


    Brett Sutton knows this, yet he allowed the roadmap to say that the final stage out of lockdown required 5 days of


    zero cases.







  19. #28264
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Apologies for the format above- the iPad went berserk and I did my best and that’s how it ended up. I think I managed to touch a hyperlinked footnote with my Apple Pencil and that was the end of all reasoning with it.

  20. #28265
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Do we know whether in Australia only one test is given? I wonder what the accuracy is for multiple tests, over say, 2-3 days? Probably pretty accurate, I should think.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  21. #28266
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I wanted to quote this piece from one of the papers above so that you don’t think I’m making this up. Most people seem to think that if you have a false positive rate of 1% and you have 100 positives today you will only have one false case. Not so. Each test performed has a possibility of 1% not just the positive ones, so it applies to the total number of tests.
    Quote:
    Why are false positives a problem?
    DHSC figures [3] show that 100,664 tests were carried out on 31 May 2020 (Pillar 1 and 2 RT-PCR tests). 1,570 of those tests were positive for SARS-CoV-2 (1.6%). The majority of people tested on that day did not have SARS-CoV-2 (98.4% of tests are negative). When only a small proportion of people being tested have the virus, the operational false positive rate becomes very important. Clearly the false positive rate cannot exceed 1.6% on that day, and is likely to be much lower. If the operational false positive rate was 0.4%, 400 of the 1,570 positive tests would be false positives. That would represent 400 people being isolated when they are well, and much wasted effort in contact tracing. It is possible that a proportion of infections that we currently view as asymptomatic may in fact be due to these false positives.
    Unless we understand the operational false positive rate of the UK’s RT-PCR testing system we risk overestimating the COVID-19 incidence

    I think the idea that asymptomatic cases may be false positives is on the money.

  22. #28267
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    One of the suggestions in the paper is that when cases are generally low in the community do a minimum of two tests on each person. Is this being done? I don’t know.

  23. #28268
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    It seems to me that there's been reporting of false positives for about 6 months, at least. I've often read of people who 'tested positive but a follow-up (another test, presumably) revealed that the test was a false positive'. I don't think many Australians have been kept in isolation for long on the basis of false positives. I can imagine it dealing some pretty dodgy data elsewhere though.
    Rick

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  24. #28269
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Maybe that’s right. Have to admit I felt a bit sorry for the woman in the box today. She had been in the position of a person authorised to issue an order for 3 days when asked to sign the orders. She had not been part of the team who considered the science and made the recommended plan, and there were about 1900 pages of documents she was supposed to have given consideration to between 3.30 and 11p.m. when she signed the last document. Andrews had already told the public what the new restrictions were.
    Was she rubber stamping Andrews plan, or making an order she considered necessary after getting data, getting evidence etc.
    She had to admit to not actually having any evidence on the benefit of curfew, Apart from what she reasoned for herself, and not going through the stepwise process under the Human Rights provisions, but stuck womanfully to her guns on the idea that it was quite possible that she might have not signed one or more of the provisions. She claimed more or less that there was ‘no pressure’ to conform to Andrews statements. Apparently there are 350 people in Vic who can issue such an order. She must have wondered why her. Said she had asked not to be asked to do it again.

  25. #28270
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Politicians will happily blame public servants, and take any credit. Politicians will never protect or take responsibility for public servants' actions.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  26. #28271
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Andrews may be punting for elimination, at least to me that seems to be the direction if not the actual stated object.
    I think that elimunation is somewhat pie in the sky, it's a fair chance that just about any ships crew will be a big risk. Mezntime WAs isnrefusng to contemplate opening it's border before xmas, I thought I heard McGowan say he wanted 28 days infection free before he opened his border but I may have miss-heard. With that standard they may as well withdraw from the federation.

  27. #28272
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    They're all going for elimination. They'll crow about it if achieved and it's what the public want. They won't state it as a goal though because rhen any less would be seen as a failure, and they won't risk that.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  28. #28273
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I had quite a long talk to my youngish politician friend the other day (in opposition atm). She says premiers in states that have it more or less controlled including WA and Tas are very popular with the border controls and very hard to get any traction in opposition. The problem is that there are many other functions of government that need attention that are all being smothered by constant Covid coverage. Said in effect the only things the press wants to hear about are where the government isn’t doing enough re Covid and this just makes it worse.

    Regarding elimination, if you give health officials the power to issue orders for the protection of public health it appears to me that they will naturally evolve towards an elimination strategy for fear of criticism for not doing enough. That poor lady yesterday said her job was all about health, and while she realised the pain she was causing it was not her job to have any consideration for economic effects etc. Despite legal advice that some aspects might not conform to human rights measures, she felt that her health obligations overrode that.

    I thought that was dangerous territory, and I think later the whole thing needs revisiting. I believe that for the protection of as much liberty as reasonably possible that this is a situation where you need a person or body paid to be a ‘devil’s advocate’. As pointed out above, opposition parties can’t really do this job, partly because of reduced parliament time and mainly because they have an eye to reelection.

  29. #28274
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Yes.
    It annoys the hell out of me that Australian politics have been destroyed by the media. Of course I believe most of the fault lies with Murdoch but really all the major media players are to blame. We now have completely gutless politicians who will not act if it will attract condemnation from the press, particularly the Murdoch press. It's pathetic.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  30. #28275
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I don't like the sound of this!

    A Bill to enable use of foreign troops or foreign police in Australian “emergencies” - Pearls and IrritationsPearls and Irritations
    By BEVAN RAMSDEN | On 1 October 2020
    A bill is before federal parliament to enable the ADF, Reserves and foreign military forces and police to be used in Australian emergencies. It gives them immunity from civil or criminal prosecution for actions arising from these emergency duties.
    “Emergencies” are undefined. Could they include industrial actions or large scale climate change protest actions?
    There are very worrying implications in a Bill being considered in Federal Parliament.
    It is called the “Defence Legislation Amendment (Enhancement of Defence Force response to Emergencies) Bill, 2020”.
    Clause 123AA:
    (4) The Chief of the Defence Force, or the Secretary, may, in writing, authorise a person, or each person in a class of persons, to perform duties in respect of the provision of assistance mentioned in subsection (1), if the person, or each person in the class of persons, is any of the following:
    (a) an APS employee or other employee of the Commonwealth or a Commonwealth authority or agency;
    (b) a member of the naval, military or air force of a foreign country, or a member of a foreign police force (however described).


    It enables the ADF and Reserves to be used in “emergencies” but “emergencies” is undefined.
    Bush fire assistance is one emergency which might be justified but could certain so-called “disruptive” industrial actions or “disruptive” mass climate change protests be considered “emergencies”?
    These are legitimate actions in our democracy but being confronted or suppressed by the Defence Forces or Reserves would not be a legitimate use of these Forces in a healthy democracy.
    One wonders whether the government preparing for a militarised response to climate breakdown.
    Further the legislation includes the use of foreign military forces and foreign police to assist in “emergencies”. Surely we Australians are, with appropriate resources and organisation, capable of addressing emergencies without the need for foreign troops or foreign police. And we certainly don’t want these foreign forces confronting and suppressing legitimate protest actions by Australian citizens.
    In addition the legislation provide immunity from civil or criminal prosecution to the defence forces including foreign military, for their actions in these “emergencies”.
    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

    "Freighters on the nod on the surface of the bay, One of these days we're going to sail away"
    Bruce Cockburn

  31. #28276
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I could support it if it can only be implemented with the agreement of the leader of the opposition.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

  32. #28277
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    I couldn't, not for a minute. "use of foreign troops" is a step too far with such loose wording.

  33. #28278
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    That is one very dangerous step in the wrong direction.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  34. #28279
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Opportunism under the shelter of covid, and notbthe only example either.

  35. #28280
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    If the PM and the Opposition agree, they can already do all those things.
    Rick

    Lean and nosey like a ferret

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