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Thread: Oz Politics.

  1. #14316
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    and….


    Malcolm Turnbull anniversary: One year on, another leadership tragedy could be unfolding

    Michael Gordon
    Published: September 9, 2016 - 11:45PM

    The big question after Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott, this time last year, was simple enough: what did the new Prime Minister plan to do with the opportunity and the power he had seized?
    In the weeks after the coup, there was an avalanche of advice on how to spend his seemingly bottomless bucket of political capital, from making big symbolic gestures to backing radical reforms. "Use it or lose it," was the mantra.
    Turnbull's response was to bristle at the impatience of those who expected prompt action on the causes they assumed he would champion, from gay marriage and global warming to economic reform and injecting a dose of humanity into Abbott's harsh border protection regime.
    He was going to weigh the pros and cons of propositions very carefully, came the response, and consult widely before taking decisions. This would be a traditional cabinet government.
    But the longer not much was seen to happen, the more disillusioned his supporters became.
    What many took time to appreciate was the extent to which Turnbull had committed himself to Abbott policies to secure the support of conservatives in his cabinet and on his backbench.
    When the penny dropped, many concluded Turnbull had simply wanted the job more than he wanted to implement an agenda.
    But there was another factor that shaped Turnbull's initial period in power and it went to the last time he was leader of the Liberal Party, when his impatience, impetuosity and arrogance alienated his colleagues. This time he was going to be more inclusive.
    "He let the hares run, but let them run for too long," says one colleague.
    Now the political capital bucket is near empty and many of those who invested so much hope and optimism in the Turnbull ascension fear they are witnessing the unfolding of a tragedy as epic as the one that destroyed the careers of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.
    It is, of course, utterly premature to predict Turnbull's downfall, not least because of the absence of a challenger, but there can be no doubting the level of cynicism and disappointment in the electorate, or the potential for sudden upheavals.
    There will be no round of media interviews to mark Wednesday's anniversary of Turnbull's first year in power. Rather, the occasion will be seized upon by critics to chronicle the missteps (and there have been quite a number) and to highlight the absence of achievements.
    Already, at the prompting of Andrew Bolt, Abbott's former chief of staff Peta Credlin and the media-shy Jeff Kennett have struggled to nominate a single success, aside from winning the election by a whisker.
    That is unfair, given the likelihood of defeat had Abbott remained in power, but the common temptation is to compare Turnbull's standing now with his own standing in the first few months, rather than Abbott's before the challenge.
    As veteran poll analyst John Stirton puts it: "Mr Turnbull is less popular now than any prime minister starting their second term for the last 40 years – less popular than Paul Keating (who was thrashed at the next election); less popular than Julia Gillard (who was torn down by the man she deposed, Rudd).
    "Across the spectrum, few people are happy," says Stirton. "For conservative voters, Mr Turnbull is the outsider, the leftie who should never have been given the job in the first place. For progressive voters, he is the great disappointment, stymied by the right wing of his party and captive to the deals he made to unseat Abbott."
    It wasn't so much the lack of grace that has stuck in the minds of voters, when Turnbull addressed his supporters after midnight on election night, neglecting to offer commiserations to the fallen and blaming the closeness of the result on Labor's systematic "well-funded lies".
    Rather it was that, in the weeks and months since the election, there has never been any acknowledgment that the government failed to meet expectations and needs to do better.
    "There's a history of leaders who get an electoral shock acknowledging that they have heard the message, but not a hint of it from this government," says social researcher Hugh Mackay. "They were crowing as if they'd won the Olympic gold medal and it didn't matter what the margin was."
    Now the question of just what Turnbull plans to do with the prime ministership remains largely unanswered, but the degree of difficulty is much, much higher.
    Unruly behaviour and ill-discipline from disaffected and recalcitrant backbenchers is one thing, and Turnbull has more than his share of them; direct attacks from the man he tore down are another altogether.
    Having increased the pressure on Turnbull to act on donations and clashed with Scott Morrison on the Coalition's superannuation changes, Abbott upped the ante on Friday by suggesting the Prime Minister acted "in panic" when he announced a royal commission into the Northern Territory juvenile detention system.
    "They think he's wounded and they're going for him," is how one MP loyal to Turnbull sums up the dynamic.
    Faced with such internal insurrection and external disaffection, Turnbull's response has been to concentrate on implementing the platform he took to the people and the "fundamental moral challenge" of budget repair.
    The problem with this approach is twofold. Firstly, the agenda is inadequate, as the election result demonstrated. He needs to either recast it in more compelling terms or enlarge it, or both.
    The second problem goes to the other issues vying for attention, like same-sex marriage and the case for root-and-branch reform of political donations. The danger in both is that Turnbull fails to lead the debate and that the result is shaped by Labor, the Greens and/or the crossbench in ways that leave him exposed.
    The reality is that Turnbull faces danger whichever way he turns. A continuation of the risk-averse approach that ended the honeymoon invites the description of this government singer-songwriter Neil Young gave when introducing one of his songs: "It sorta starts off real slow and then fizzles out altogether."
    The other path is to be bold, to set down what he wants to achieve, make the government his own and be prepared to take on the internal critics. Young had a line for this approach, too; that it's better to burn out than it is to fade away.
    This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/mal...09-grctgq.html

  2. #14317
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Hopeless ! A few of us had hopes for Turnbull in that he at least looks the part .... but the man has no ticker.
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  3. #14318
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    It's no time for the ALP to crow however. Amongst the same articles is one indicating that Shorten is indeed short on every indicator except compassion. Rudd's revenge is at work, and the Coalition would likely win a new election now, but by about the same matgin. Polls differ.

  4. #14319
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    and Hanson's vote would increase, the born to rules are too obvious and Labor are Labor.
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  5. #14320
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    I think because it's been politically a 'closed shop' for so many decades. Our 'representatives' actually represent the Party, bought and sold long before preselection, advisors and aparatchics and that preselection sometime decided by one or two and parachuted in. Not even the choice of their electorate branch, and then of course there's branch stacking on both sides. The last thing that the two majors' hierarchies' seem to want is an independent thinker, an actual leader.
    No wonder a loose group like One Nation, regardless of their views, got a big primary vote. But 2nd preferences did, I think, go back to the voters likely older affiliations.

  6. #14321
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    Federal Labor and Liberal have opposite problems. People are deeply disappointed by Turncoat's weakness but they still prefer him to any other member of his party. People don't like or trust Shorten but they prefer his party. Labor would win in a landslide now if they dumped Shorten.

    Rick

  7. #14322
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    Can you think of anyone in Labor's ranks (of the preferred gender) to fill the role Rick?
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  8. #14323
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    Someone should study the negative environmental and economic impacts of this. I'm a fan of cogeneration.... when it's planned. When it's done adhoc, the environmental costs can be huge:

    One of Australia’s premier sporting venues is considering generating its own baseload power, amid skyrocketing electricity prices and fears of further widespread blackouts.

    The Australian understands energy issues were discussed at a meeting of Adelaide Oval’s eight-member Stadium Management Authority board, chaired by former premier John Olsen, last week. The board was informed that SMA chief executive Andrew Daniels was examining “co-generation” options that would cost between $1.5 million and $2m to provide baseload power for the internationally acclaimed stadium. It is understood diesel and gas co-generation options are being examined and a proposal will go to the board early next year.

    Record-high power prices are forecast to increase, amid urgent concern in South Australia about energy security and reliability of supply, as the Weatherill Labor government drives the state towards a renewable energy target of 50 per cent by 2025.

    Adelaide Oval has a busy schedule of major events. The city stadium attracted 32,000-strong crowds for a day-night Test between Australia and South Africa last month. It will host a one-day match against Pakistan under lights on Australia Day, as well as the historic first day-night Ashes Test next December.

    Adelaide Strikers fans Noel and Victoria Hernes were at Adelaide Oval last night as the first Big Bash game for the season there was played under lights. Mr Hernes said he hoped the stadium had a good back-up power plan, fearing pandemonium if a blackout hit during a major event.

    “If the stadium went black it would be a nightmare,” he said. “Plus, can you imagine the damage it would do to the state’s reputation? We’ve only just really established ourselves as a major destination in the sports world with the redeveloped Adelaide Oval and it’s been a big success — no one would like to see it fail because of sketchy power supplies and high prices and an energy infrastructure in South Australia that can’t support it.”

    Mr Daniels yesterday declined to comment on board deliberations but confirmed engineering and development consultancy firm Mott MacDonald was working on a privately funded proposal for a “co-generation” project at Adelaide Oval.

    Using the latest technology, co-generation can be a highly efficient method of power generation by harnessing “waste heat” from an existing power supply and converting it into electricity.

    The move by Adelaide Oval to explore less reliance on the state’s increasingly vulnerable electricity grid comes as the SMA grapples with an $800,000 spike in its annual power bill. After its energy contract expired on October 31, and following an exhaustive tender process, a new one-year contract was signed last month.

    “For the same amount of power, it was an extra $800,000,” Mr Daniels said yesterday.

    “We are looking at the most (financially) efficient ways of running the stadium.”

    Mr Daniels stressed any new system initially would not generate enough power to keep the lights on in the event of another statewide blackout like the one that devastated industry on September 28.

    For a major event under lights, Adelaide Oval uses about 5500 kilovolt amps of power. The oval lost power during the September blackout but the impact was minimal as it was not open and its fine-dining restaurant Hill of Grace was closed.

    Mr Daniels said the SMA, like every South Australian business, was being hit by rising power costs since the Weatherill government’s renewable energy policy forced the closure of the state’s last coal-fired power station in May. “What is driving this is our cost of buying power, coupled with the latest technology you can acquire which allows you to generate power and heat to enable co-generation to be possible,” he said.

    The idea arose after a discussion with Adelaide businessman Tim Cooper, whose family-owned Coopers Brewery has its own power supply via gas, and was unaffected by the blackout.
    Adelaide Oval already has back-up battery systems for emergency lighting and computer systems. It takes two separate power feeds from the grid, both of which are independently capable of running the stadium unless there is a statewide blackout.

    Adelaide Strikers fans Kirsty Fleming and Jason Lange were at Adelaide Oval last night.
    Ms Fleming, who was affected by the September blackout, said she occasionally went to the venue for live sporting events and hoped the stadium would never be impacted by the state’s power woes.

    “We’ve already been really put out as South Australians by the blackouts ... this venue has really established itself now as one of the great international sporting venues and we don’t want to see it or the state let down by a second rate electricity system. It would be so embarrassing.”

    A spokesman for Cricket Australia said it had no concerns about power supply to Adelaide Oval as contracts demanded all venues have back-up power options, including generators.

    Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium spokesman Bill Lane said the 63,000-capacity venue hedged its energy supply risk by sourcing its power from two separate suppliers but it was still dependent on the grid. “There would be sufficient reserve to get people out of the stadium in an emergency,’’ he said.
    But it too would not be able to keep the lights on during a statewide blackout.

    SCG stadium spokesman Phillip Heads said back-up diesel generators were brought in on an ad-hoc basis and the stadium authority had a permanent arrangement for back-up emergency lighting.

    South Australian businesses and households have been scrambling to secure their own back-up supply since two blackouts hit the state in little more than two months.

    One of the largest sellers of industrial diesel generators, Genpower Australia, has seen a 50 per cent spike in sales and service calls in the past three months. Families had been willing to pay $11,000 up front for a diesel generator back-up while one regional supermarket on Yorke Peninsula, 160km west of Adelaide, bought a $35,000 generator last week to ensure its freezers stayed on, the company said.

  9. #14324
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Every country store has backup gen sets, nothing new there.
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  10. #14325
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    I think also Plibersek but she may be seen a bit too 'left' if the term still has meaning.
    But of course there's gender politics at work, and the factions, so the best person is likely the least likely.
    Working in both majors at present to their own detriment.

  11. #14326
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    Ian, I reckon it's those situations that will drive renewables in the end, not th political parties who have a history of kowtowing to big donors and lobby groups regardless. Coal is on the way out, quicker than we allow I reckon. But it's continuation is likely the only common ground between capital and the union so it will be a battle for both majors, maybe too much of a battle.

  12. #14327
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    Yes, big coal and the mining unions like the status quo. Powerful forces, lots of money and votes in the mining areas... if the majors don't collect them Pauline will.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  13. #14328
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    She can collect votes from both sides, should do very well. Might even be the finish of the Nationals in some areas.

  14. #14329
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    Yes, to the workers the majors are all the same with a bit of a discount to the born to rules .... they don't even make a pretense of caring about the pool Pauline fishes in.
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    Trouble at Coalition mill I note, Christiansen and another threatening to pull out, and Bernardi and Abbott pushing a swing to the right, or else. Bernardi is attempting a trump I reckon.
    "Two Turnbull Government frontbenchers have brushed off threats from rebel backbenchers who have warned they may abandon the Coalition if it does not embrace conservative principles.
    Queensland Coalition MP George Christensen has called for the Government to pay more attention to the priorities of conservative voters, warning that if it does not then his position in the party might "no longer tenable" in the future.
    Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has also been a persistent critic of the Turnbull Government, and has warned he may start a new party for voters disenchanted with the Coalition."

    Aint' a 1 seat majority a pain in the but?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-2...hreats/8141020

  16. #14331
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    Quote Originally Posted by boat fan View Post
    I think Chris Bowen could ( and would ) do better than Billy in Shorts Peter.
    Albanese was always a better choice than Shorten. Not a great leader, I suspect, but a lot more integrity than Shorten and I think the public still value that. I don't see Bowen as a leader but yes, a much better choice than Shorten. Plibersek I suspect is too compromised by her drug dealer husband and she doesn't perform well in debate - too much of a lightweight. Penny Wong is the brightest of the front bench but unfortunately positioned in the Senate.

    The Liberals are making a grave error in allowing that moron from Nth Qld and Bernadi steal so much of the agenda. The public actually hate it. They elected a leader and government and expect that government to run its course. If the Liberals ditched those two, went to an election through the consequent no-confidence vote and ran a campaign based on things Turncoat once declared he stood for, they would very likely be returned with a working majority. But as they have no courage at all, they won't and will die the death of a thousand cuts they're currently dying from.

    Rick

  17. #14332
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    About right Rick, I like Albo but i have no idea if that is a general feeling.

    I DO know that the public is sick of Malcolm doing nothing and betraying the reason he was a popular choice for PM.
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    and the alternative PM? A long long way from exciting, and as compromised as Malcolm in his own way.

  19. #14334
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    Is there anyone on parliament not "compromised" by factional loyalties and debts ?
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  20. #14335
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    Certainly not in the majors, their principles and loyalties are bought and sold by the party before they get preselection.

  21. #14336
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    In that case we will get another apparatchik .... but from which faction of which brand ?
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  22. #14337
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    We could go the American road, vote in a real estate billionaire to make us grate on everyone.
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  23. #14338
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    Quote Originally Posted by boat fan View Post
    Maybe we need a revolution......drag these cretins out of their beds in the middle of the night.....you know the rest .....

    The French never looked back .....
    I rather fancy turning our underground parliament into a dungeon, brick the place up with them all inside. Muck quieter and less bloody. The building unions would likely do it for free……….

  24. #14339
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    I see that without a guiding hand, the yabber yabber is strong

  25. #14340
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    The 'guiding hand' hasn't yet assumed office. Orders will come soon enough.

  26. #14341
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    Quote Originally Posted by boat fan View Post
    Away with you Troll.
    'tis the season to be merry. Get yer glad rags on and get active.


  27. #14342
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    Abetz has just been on the dreaded ABC making the case for a more conservative Liberal party to claw back the paulines and of course desert the middle to Labor...... he didn't mention the last bit.
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  28. #14343
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    Gee Peter, I was replying to your first go at this post, but this one makes just as much sense....

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    Abetz has just been on the dreaded ABC making the case for a more conservative Liberal party to claw back the paulines and of course desert the middle to Labor...... he didn't mention the last bit.
    The last bit?


  29. #14344
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    Hmm... I think I got off the codeine too soon

  30. #14345
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    You're looking better Ian.
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  31. #14346
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    Abetz assured us that every BBQ conversation was about 18C and that no one cares about gay marriage. He must live in a peculiar bubble where no ones' kids or their friends kids are gay. I don't.
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    Meanwhile, the Trots are getting active:

    A newly formed hard-left faction within the Greens has publicly stated it does not believe in the rule of law or the legitimacy of the Australian state and says it will work to “bring about the end of capitalism”.

    Formed around federal NSW senator Lee Rhiannon and NSW upper house MP David Shoebridge, the “Left Renewal” faction has published a statement of principles that is at odds with its own party and contradicts the Greens’ national policies in several key areas.

    In forming the faction, Left Renewal said the Greens were failing those with liberal beliefs.

    “Positions of power and influence within the party are falling to those with liberal politics, who manipulate party processes and abuse their resources to take and solidify their control,” the new faction’s Facebook page says.


    The group opposes market-based mechanisms, such as a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme, as methods to address climate change, and will have a binding caucus in which members will be forced to follow the majority view expressed within the faction.


    Candidates supported by the hard Left have lost in recent state preselections in NSW, prompting the unified group looking to wrest power from what it sees as a right-wing body.


    In a statement of principles, the group describes itself as “advocates for peace” and rejects the authority of the police.


    “A rejection of class antagonism, and capitalism, also depends on a rejection of the state’s legitimacy and the right of it, and its apparatuses, to impose oppression upon the working class,” it says.


    “We further rejected state- mediated oppression in all of its forms, and recognise that violent apparatuses like the police do not share an interest with the working class.”


    Former Greens leader Bob Brown previously has called for Senator Rhiannon to bow out of politics to make room for “renewal”.

  33. #14348
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    They're unhappy because the Greens have moved on while the Libs are trying to move backwards.
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    "A newly formed hard-left faction within the Greens has publicly stated it does not believe in the rule of law or the legitimacy of the Australian state and says it will work to “bring about the end of capitalism”.

    Not so long ago that was the territory of the extreme right. Sovereign staters etc. Stealing Bernardi's thunder….. Tut tut.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post




    Looks like a Walmart shopper.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

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