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Thread: Oz Politics.

  1. #14001
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    And what's the bet that the Trots will see green about the prospect of a lower company tax rate? No ideas, no hope for the grandkids... that's the left:

    The federal budget is hooked on a level of company tax payments that is unsustainable, particularly with Donald Trump promising to slash US company tax rates. Company taxes provide a larger share of government revenue in Australia than in almost any other country and soak up a larger share of the economy than anywhere apart from oil-rich Norway. But it is a lemon failing to deliver the juice that is expected of it.

    Company taxes have been the biggest source of the government’s budget woes since the global financial crisis, persistently failing to grow in line with forecasts. Since 2011-12, Treasury has been predicting that in another four years company taxes would rise to about $85 billion, but in practice they have never risen past $70bn. In 2015-16, the government collected only $63.5bn — about the same as 10 years ago.

    The weakness in company tax reflects a lack of profit growth across the economy and the large deductions that the resource companies have been able to claim for their enormous investments during the boom. Yesterday’s national accounts show that company profits were lower across the past 12 months than at any time since mid-2011 while the level of company tax paid was the lowest since 2010, when companies were still booking losses from the global financial crisis.

    Treasury’s forecasts have constantly assumed that profitability would return to the levels enjoyed before the financial crisis. That has not occurred here or anywhere else, with business under intense competitive pressure, facing low sales growth and trying to maintain margins by cutting costs.


    OECD figures show why the difficult business environment has caused particular pain in Australia. The five years before the financial crisis were an extraordinary boom, and not just in the resources sector. Property, banking, professional services, retail and a host of other industries were delivering rivers of tax revenue to the Howard government.


    In 2007, company taxes generated revenue equivalent to 6.8 per cent of gross domestic product, almost double the OECD average of 3.6 per cent. Not only was our company tax rate comparatively high, but added to that was our dividend imputation system that encourages company boards to maximise taxable profits.


    But most important were the elevated profits, particularly in financial services and resources. The OECD shows that Australia’s company taxes have dropped to 4.7 per cent of GDP since the crisis, with the 2.1 percentage point fall accounting for a large part of the budget deficit. The fall is twice as large as that caused by weaker profits across the rest of the OECD and is likely to continue.


    The financial services sector is the biggest taxpayer, about a third of all company tax revenue. Mining delivers another 15 per cent, but this is volatile, swinging with commodity prices and investment deductions. The recent surge in iron ore and coal prices should lift payments, but resources companies are still booking tax deductions for their hefty investments during the boom. The profits of the financial services sector face a longer term and more structural threat with regulatory demands for higher capital coming as the credit cycle is turning, with rising bad debts. The easy revenue stream from mortgage lending, particularly to investors, is drying up.


    Profit figures that went into yesterday’s national accounts show other sectors also are struggling, with returns falling in construction, retail, utilities and professional services. Further downward revisions in company tax revenue in the mid-year budget update is likely. In the last year of the Howard government company taxes delivered 22.9 per cent of all tax revenue, more than double the OECD average. Now it is 16.8 per cent, and personal income taxes are bearing a greater burden, rising from 36.6 per cent to 41 per cent of federal tax revenue.


    Labor argues the parlous state of the budget means we cannot afford the company tax cut the government plans to introduce across the next decade. Bill Shorten describes it as a “tax cut for multinationals” and claims it would be paid for by cuts to health spending.


    However, the fall in company tax receipts is almost certain to accelerate unless Australia does something with its tax rate, which is among the highest in the OECD. The US is the major economy with a significantly higher tax rate of 34 per cent; however president-elect Donald Trump has vowed to cut this to 15 per cent. Even if this proves too great a leap for congress, some reduction to at least 25 per cent is highly likely. Britain is cutting its corporate rate to 17 per cent.


    Our economy depends heavily on the continuing inflow of foreign direct investment by the multinationals Labor derides. Analysis by Westpac’s Elliot Clarke of this week’s balance of payments reveals that multinationals pumped $41 billion into the economy in the first nine months of the year, with $29bn of that fresh equity investment or reinvested profits. The US is the largest provider of this investment. The case to invest here would be weakened significantly if US firms had lower tax at home.


    Trump also is promising incentives for US firms to repatriate profits, which would lead to less reinvestment and a smaller pool of retained earnings for the Australian Taxation Office to chase.


    Trump is a fan of Ronald Reagan’s adviser on tax, Arthur Laffer, who argued that tax cuts would generate more revenue.


    The academic evidence on this from the Reagan years is still debated, but an uncompetitively high tax rate will certainly generate less revenue.

  2. #14002
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    Oops:

    Low reserves of electricity supply and the potential for blackouts will dog southeast Australia for the next three summers, the Australian Electricity Market Operator has warned as power plants close and big energy users scramble to protect themselves from volatile prices.

    Energy Users Association of Australia chief executive Andrew Richards said large companies could risk the “extreme sport” of buying electricity on the spot market to offset price increases, while the Australian Hotels Association said some businesses were facing power bill increases of more than $500,000 as they struggled with rising costs.

    In a December 6 notice to the energy market, the AEMO warned of “low reserve conditions” in spare generation capacity available to South Australia for the next three summers and to Victoria next summer, which users said would lead to higher spot prices.

    The warning has come as South Australia struggles without Port Augusta’s 520 megawatt coal-fired baseload plant, closed by Alinta in May, and ahead of the closure next March of Victoria’s 50-year-old Hazelwood plant in Latrobe Valley, which will remove 5 per cent of baseload power from the national market.


    The update on AEMO’s three-year outlook shows low surplus power supply once peak loads are met, outages had been taken into account and other requirements are satisfied.


    An AEMO spokesman said load shedding or blackouts could occur if peak demand spikes higher than forecast, driven by extremely hot days, and the market would likely respond by firing up mothballed plants, lifting gas-fired and coal-fired generation in South Australia and NSW and seeing big energy customers close operations when prices were high.

    Mr Richards, who represents South Australian association members Woolworths, packager and glass manufacturer Orora and Port Pirie lead smelter owner Nyrstar, said that would translate to higher prices and possible blackouts.

    “It also means if you intend buying on spot this summer, it will be an extreme sport,’’ Mr Richards said.


    “Do you play the extreme sport of the spot market game or do you get contract cover? That’s the commercial decision people face. It’s certainly made it far more perilous to be a large energy user than in the past.’’


    Smaller users, including hoteliers and supermarket owners, were working with the South Australian government to harness buying power for a better deal with retailers.


    Australian Hotels Association South Australian president Peter Hurley said power had become “a debilitating burden on business, an investment barrier and a jobs killer. It is surely one of the major challenges for the state.”


    “Power prices continue to rise with absolutely no connection to our low inflation rate,’’ he told a group of politicians, industry chiefs and civic leaders in Adelaide this week.


    “One country pub has notified the AHA that their peak rate has increased by 417 per cent. One company has advised the office they employ 600 South Australians and the increase of their power bill on their new contract that they’ve just had to sign is in excess of $550,000 a year.


    “Yet most of the politicians think hotels can simply pass on the cost to consumers.”


    Representing 600 pubs throughout the state that contribute more than $4 billion to the economy and employ 26,250 people, the AHA would work with South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis on a collective buying contract to encourage ramping up baseload gas-fired generation.


    Supermarket group Foodland, with 118 stores dependent on refrigeration, is believed to be in urgent talks with the government.


    Mr Koutsantonis said he was encouraging discussions between participants across the energy supply system to provide more competitive gas and electricity prices for all customers.

    Lower prices through privatisation...gee that worked out well.
    Seems like a whole stack of poor planning.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-0...closes/7394854
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  3. #14003
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  4. #14004
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Freudenberg is now compromised by his party and his 'leader'. There is no honour in his position, nor are there 'honourable members' in his party. Likely not in either.

  5. #14005
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    It seems like a good idea, some progress might be made while non will be made leaving things to the AGW denying Federal Liberals.

    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  6. #14006
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    It seems like a good idea, some progress might be made while non will be made leaving things to the AGW denying Federal Liberals.

    You really should read that report, rather than just trying to make silly political capital from it. Take a look at, for example, the reasons why the Greens voters believe climate change is AGW. Quite revealing.

  7. #14007
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    Quote Originally Posted by WX View Post
    Lower prices through privatisation...gee that worked out well.
    Seems like a whole stack of poor planning.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-0...closes/7394854
    It might help you understand if you actually read the articles you link, stop, think, then write a comment. Maybe think twice.

    As the article states, that base load generator closed because it couldn't compete with government-subsidised renewables. The fact is, the renewables have proven unable to supply the base load. Yes, it's great to have a lot of renewables... but there's wider needs. We need guaranteed energy supply. To push the system into a situation where it is unreliable is lunacy. It is costing the state jobs... leaving less government revenue to provide the subsidies, etc. A typical Labor/Greens credit card spiral.

  8. #14008
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    You really should read that report, rather than just trying to make silly political capital from it. Take a look at, for example, the reasons why the Greens voters believe climate change is AGW. Quite revealing.
    I know rather lot of Green voters and they do their research and respect the opinions of people who have made climate science their life's work.
    Liberal and National politicians apparently get their information from somewhere else. Certainly not from organisations like the BOM.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change...ker=timeseries

    Perhaps mining interests like the http://www.lavoisier.com.au/index.php John Howard's advisers on AGW?.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  9. #14009
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Nonetheless Peter there are likely to be outages and/or brownouts in Vic. this summer. We realised this quite early and have made some provision. There are some firms in Vic. who are asking questions not least the Portland smelter. Of course the deal the smelter got at the time was, to say the least, politically advantageous. The power being in the east of the state, the smelter in the west, and the transmission line built at State expense. Melbourne Airport was in the same category.

  10. #14010
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    I know rather lot of Green voters and they do their research and respect the opinions of people who have made climate science their life's work.
    Liberal and National politicians apparently get their information from somewhere else. Certainly not from organisations like the BOM.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change...ker=timeseries

    Perhaps mining interests like the http://www.lavoisier.com.au/index.php John Howard's advisers on AGW?.

    You'll do anything to avoid the facts, won't you. It's from your source, but you won't have it. Hillarious

  11. #14011
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Decent planning at Federal level could / would solve most but that seems unlikely. Apparently the majority of the Lib cabinet see no reason to reduce CO2 emissions . They KNOW it's all a lefty scam to destroy Western industry . The Chinese are behind it all I tell ya.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Nonetheless Peter there are likely to be outages and/or brownouts in Vic. this summer. We realised this quite early and have made some provision. There are some firms in Vic. who are asking questions not least the Portland smelter. Of course the deal the smelter got at the time was, to say the least, politically advantageous. The power being in the east of the state, the smelter in the west, and the transmission line built at State expense. Melbourne Airport was in the same category.
    Oh, good god...

    Yes, they got a good deal.

    Yes, it was about using our comparative advantages to gain benefit.

    Lessee... cheap/abundant energy, raw materials (bauxite), labour. Let's put 'em together and create jobs, products and wealth. Let's tax that and use it to provide services.

    What's the Trot's alternative?

    Remove the cheap energy, ship the raw materials and jobs overseas. Use dirtier energy there, use labor under harsher conditions to produce the product. Forgo the wealth and the taxes.

    Everyone's better off eh, because we aren't using our energy?

    Yep - we deserve to go extinct.

  13. #14013
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    Decent planning at Federal level could / would solve most but that seems unlikely. Apparently the majority of the Lib cabinet see no reason to reduce CO2 emissions . They KNOW it's all a lefty scam to destroy Western industry . The Chinese are behind it all I tell ya.
    Ignorance of our government responsibilities is no excuse for the rubbish you continue to post....

    We have three tiers of government in this country... just because there's Labor state governments creating these problems is no excuse to drop this (state) responsibility on the Feds.

    TomF's not the troll.... he's the bloke you see in the mirror of a morning.

    Please try and post factual material, rather than nonsense.

  14. #14014
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    What the chart indicates is that a large majority of Liberal and National voters have either a very poor understanding of the science or believe that the scientific community is part of a gigantic cross country scam to destroy Western manufacturing . Either that or they believe shock jocks and politicians over scientists . Either way they're fools.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    Ignorance of our government responsibilities is no excuse for the rubbish you continue to post....

    We have three tiers of government in this country... just because there's Labor state governments creating these problems is no excuse to drop this (state) responsibility on the Feds.

    TomF's not the troll.... he's the bloke you see in the mirror of a morning.

    Please try and post factual material, rather than nonsense.
    The Feds are very good at nudging state policy the way they want it to go. It's called Federalism.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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  16. #14016
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post


    What the chart indicates is that a large majority of Liberal and National voters have either a very poor understanding of the science or believe that the scientific community is part of a gigantic cross country scam to destroy Western manufacturing . Either that or they believe shock jocks and politicians over scientists . Either way they're fools.
    Actually, what it indicates is that 487 LibNats voters believe climate change is human-induced, compared to the 332 people who voted Greens who believed the same thing.

  17. #14017
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    You're having trouble with that aren't you? Try again.

    A tip , work out the percentages of the different sized samples.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    You're having trouble with that aren't you? Try again.

    A tip , work out the percentages of the different sized samples.
    My maths stacks up. I see you don't have the courage of your convictions to post your maths... just criticisms.

    Stump up with what you think the numbers are, or, if you prefer, keep trolling.

  19. #14019
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Ah, well at least you now realise that numbers are irrelevant with different sample sizes.

    Libs ......65% ..it's not real or not happening.
    7% don't know either way.


    Nats....... 60% It's not real or not happening
    18% don't know

    Greens.....19% not real
    6% don't know, which goes to show lots of people vote Green for their social policies, not environmental issues.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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    Waiting, waiting.... and 487 is still > 332

  21. #14021
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    Ah, well at least you now realise that numbers are irrelevant with different sample sizes.

    Libs ......65% ..it's not real or not happening.
    7% don't know either way.


    Nats....... 60% It's not real or not happening
    18% don't know

    Greens.....19% not real
    6% don't know, which goes to show lots of people vote Green for their social policies, not environmental issues.

    I see that you are imagining new categories that aren't in the results. Simply amazing.

    Totter off and have a read of the original report. It isn't hard to find.

    .... and don't forget.... there's more LibNats than Greens who believe that climate change is human-induced.

  22. #14022
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    It might help you understand if you actually read the articles you link, stop, think, then write a comment. Maybe think twice.

    As the article states, that base load generator closed because it couldn't compete with government-subsidised renewables. The fact is, the renewables have proven unable to supply the base load. Yes, it's great to have a lot of renewables... but there's wider needs. We need guaranteed energy supply. To push the system into a situation where it is unreliable is lunacy. It is costing the state jobs... leaving less government revenue to provide the subsidies, etc. A typical Labor/Greens credit card spiral.
    The idea is to phase out co2 emissions from fossil fuels by replacing the power stations with renewable power sources. To do it requires long term cross party commitment. It requires investment, research and development of renewable technologies and deployment of the generating plants. It can't be done if the majority of the government are in denial about the causes of global warming and it can't be done if the government wastes valuable resources and money on not only propping up the coal industry but actively subsidises and provides infrastructure to expand and export more coal. I cite Adani as an example of this wastage.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  23. #14023
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    As for the Port Augusta power station, they could do this instead.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...er-generation/
    No shortage of salt lakes around the town.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

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    The sooner Weatherill goes it alone, the better. We can stop subsidising his moribund state.

  25. #14025
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    The sooner Weatherill goes it alone, the better. We can stop subsidising his moribund state.
    A bit of intelligent thinking and SA could become a major power supplier for the SE part of Australia.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

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    Quote Originally Posted by WX View Post
    A bit of intelligent thinking and SA could become a major power supplier for the SE part of Australia.
    Feel free to demonstrate that intelligence. I'll be interested to see how you're going to make that work..... a bit like Peter's fracking ideas.

  27. #14027
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    Feel free to demonstrate that intelligence. I'll be interested to see how you're going to make that work..... a bit like Peter's fracking ideas.
    The Israelis have been doing it for a little while and Dutch are planning to have a go.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...er-generation/
    There was also an idea for building a thermal tower.
    Could be a good spot for tidal power.
    Certainly ideal for massive scale solar and there's a lot of R&D going into chemical salt power storage systems. I came across a solar BBQ that stores heat in a lithium salt for later use.
    Give CSIRO a decent bit of funding and I reckon they would come up with some very workable ideas. If our illustrious leaders seriously want to move away from co2 emitting power generation it could happen very quickly in 5-10 years.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  28. #14028
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    According to Hollett, the fundamental difference between natural gas fracking and EGS fracking is the injection process. The oil and gas industry injects water and a proppant (a mix of sand and chemicals), at a very high pressure of around 9,000 psi or more, which breaks though the rock and holds the cracks open; otherwise they would close when the fluid stops flowing.
    EGS, however, uses water, and sometimes acid, to shear the rock and cause a "slip." "You're trying to make two rock faces slide past each other slightly, which creates a little bit more space between them," said Lauren Boyd, EGS program manager at the DOE. This is where fractures or weaknesses in the rock likely existed already and were plugged by mineral deposits over time. Boyd compared the process to putting an ice cube in a glass of hot liquid: "cracks will form where there are existing deformities in the ice, which is similar to what happens in the subsurface with closed fractures," she said.
    As for long-term effects, "we are talking about very small fractures very deep in the earth — there is really little or negligible long-term impact there," said Hollett.
    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/...tural-gas.html
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

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    It's hard to fathom what said 'illustrious leader' actually believes. Maybe he thinks he's saving us from a Abbott/Bernardi government, and maybe there's some honour in that. The only thing that saves Mal of course is that the LibNats are unlikely to win without him. And I stay 'unlikely' advisedly because Shorten certainly isn't the public's choice either. I suppose though the rampant factionalism evident in both majors tars them with the same brush.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    It's hard to fathom what said 'illustrious leader' actually believes. Maybe he thinks he's saving us from a Abbott/Bernardi government, and maybe there's some honour in that. The only thing that saves Mal of course is that the LibNats are unlikely to win without him. And I stay 'unlikely' advisedly because Shorten certainly isn't the public's choice either. I suppose though the rampant factionalism evident in both majors tars them with the same brush.
    It feels like we've elected a bunch of not very bright chartered accountants to run the country. Talking of which I see the countries latest P&L is not looking that good. It's okay though, reduce company tax and that will promote job growth...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

  31. #14031
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    Ah yes, the old Reagan 'triple down' effect.

    BTW, I googled ALP press releases the other day, mostly just Shorten but they do have a bunch of policies up there on the website. Not surprised they don't get much play though, way to much fun for the press in parliamentary goings on.

    Now, keep an eye out from the about the 24th to the 2nd. All sorts of stuff get slid through under the Xmas/NY distractions.
    One to watch ALP wise? The machinations over the Shoppies and their malign influence in the ALP.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 12-07-2016 at 11:23 PM.

  32. #14032
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    feed enough corn to the donkey and enough will get through for the chickens.
    ​"Life is under no obligation to give us what we expect." Irrfan Khan. RIP

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    Feel free to demonstrate that intelligence. I'll be interested to see how you're going to make that work..... a bit like Peter's fracking ideas.
    Ian wants his nuclear power station up on top beside him in the suburbs, not down below him were it already is. Google Radioactive decay of granites or
    https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...4024146AAZX84l
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bigfella View Post
    I see that you are imagining new categories that aren't in the results. Simply amazing.

    Totter off and have a read of the original report. It isn't hard to find.

    .... and don't forget.... there's more LibNats than Greens who believe that climate change is human-induced.
    The research suggested while opinions on climate change were related to voting behaviour, much of this could be explained by the environmental world view held by individuals.
    Fifty-nine per cent of Labor voters believed climate change was caused by humans, compared to 28 per cent of Liberal supporters.
    Twenty-two per cent of Nationals voters agreed, compared to 76 per cent of those who support the Greens.
    '' You ain't gonna learn what you don't want to know. ''
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeterSibley View Post
    The research suggested while opinions on climate change were related to voting behaviour, much of this could be explained by the environmental world view held by individuals.
    Fifty-nine per cent of Labor voters believed climate change was caused by humans, compared to 28 per cent of Liberal supporters.
    Twenty-two per cent of Nationals voters agreed, compared to 76 per cent of those who support the Greens.
    487 > 332.

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