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Thread: Oz Politics.

  1. #351
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Bugger. The Avoca sank at her mooring.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hi...425-zqzbl.html
    We don't know how lucky we are....

  2. #352
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    ABC Background Briefing . Power pricing , money and lies . The lies are from Tony .

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/...-04-27/5406022
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  3. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    I see that Mal. Fraser has finally come round to my and our way of thinking Peter, the US military alliance is not in our interests, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan were 'mistakes' on Aus's part and that reliance on them as a 'great and powerful friend' in no longer certain, if it ever was.
    Age wekend magazine, but I presume also in the SMH.

    Buying the JSF means we are stuck with them regardless, but if we stray and decide on a modicum of independence then would the tech support and updates dry up? I think being stuck between the US and China is going to get up and bite us, the real question is how soon?
    Hm, we didn't see that coming.
    Trump, a man who can't hold a coherent thought till the end of the sentence.

  4. #354
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    I've been reading up on the South China Sea situation and frankly I see a sense of inevitability in a conflict there, no one will want it but if it occurs we will be sucked in .... again.
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  5. #355
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    Seems it's more than the ALP thats got the rot in NSW. I liked the figures re trust though, the ABC 78%, politicians 12%. Clive meantime is going to sue Newman for defamation. He doesn't care if he looses of course, and I think that it being a personal matter there's no automatic state funding. Palmer is on a roll because he's not seen as an establishment politician, I reckon he'll pick up even more from defectors. There is a banner running on the ABC re 'The majors uniting to stop the drift to minor (read PUP) parties'. I might be amusing if over the next few elections he becomes somewhat more than just a ginger group purely because of the somewhat justified view of the voters that both parties are corrupt. Collusion is the word that comes to mind.

    Then there's Brandis, 88% disapprove of his meddling with the discrimination legislation.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 04-28-2014 at 03:28 AM.

  6. #356
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Interesting, worrying , horrifying , amusing ........
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  7. #357
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    The boys clubs will gang up, even a sniff of a permanent and popular 3rd party would give them nightmares and ensure probably the only unity ticket ever between the ALP/Libs/Nats. Collusion, rigging the parliament, may be legal but ethical? But then you can't use the words ethics and politician in the same sentence can you.

  8. #358
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Legal will be sufficient but I don't think they will stop the PUP. There are enough disenfranchised ex Labor, ex Nat, ex lib voter out there to keep him going. He probably won't catch too many Greens.

    With Tony or Shorten to choose from depression sweeps in like a tide.

    The one bright point might be OPTION preferential voting in the Senate. I'll take that.
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  9. #359
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    Not sure whether it would stand in the high court actually. Restriction of democratic franchise etc.
    And I too think that Clive will gather more support if only from major party defectors preserving their jobs. But if the Mcgowan model is used as is under way here then the senate could become a very colourful place.
    At present there's no change in my decision not to vote. If shorten can get changes through the ALP hierarchy and conference then maybe I'll consider. But he'll be going against his own power base and he'd likely get the push himself.

  10. #360
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    That would be one court case I'd follow closely. I would imagine a decent case could be made that forcing someone to vote for a party they abhor is anti democratic.

    If Shorten gets the toss who do you think would get up ?.... but if he gets the toss the union boys will be ascendant so it will be their pick.
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  11. #361
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    They are already and that's how we got Shorten.

  12. #362
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    True but now he's making noises that must be unwelcome, what happens next ?
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  13. #363
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    Maybe nothing, Maybe a revolution, but I doubt it. Just hot air I expect and a rearrangement of the deck chairs.

  14. #364
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    Perhaps, the demographics are attention getting though and the populous is getting more and more peeved with them. Only Tony can save them !
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  15. #365
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    Do you read The Saturday Paper? Last issue an article by Tony Windsor giving some advice to the new independent senatore and Clive's newbies. About who in the majors to look out for, what threats and offensive behaviour to expect and from whom, and how to deflect and deal with it. Interesting letter, says the most important job is to get a Fed. version if NSW's ICAC running. Can you imagine either major agreeing to that, even though it would receive overwhelming voter support.
    Other is entitled, The end of Coal. About the Gallilee basin coalfields recently sold by Gina to an Indian company that may not be able to pay for it. Talks of 'stranded assets' as China will probably become self sufficient as it's reliance on coal will diminish.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/

  16. #366
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    Australians have become disillusioned with our political processes. They see political parties that have moved from philosophical origins to become little more than management teams vying for power. They see limited real vision for the nation. They see corrupt activity and dodgy relationships becoming part of the norm. They see a new Bastard Class that has grown up in Canberra, a coterie of major party politicians and lobby groups and elements of the press that has eroded confidence in politics.
    With this growing concern, there is an opportunity for the newly elected senators on the crossbench to overcome the commonly held view that most of them are only there because of electoral aberrations – an opportunity to prove the bastards wrong. They are here not just because of byzantine preference flows, but because the public is turning its back on the major parties.
    Time will give its verdict on the motives and integrity of this group, but if I were advising them I would do so in the following context:

    Tony Windsor , my favourite Windsor .

    Interestingly what he describes in Oz now was the precursor to MMP in New Zealand .

    Thanks for the link.



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  17. #367
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    Good advice too.
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  18. #368
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    Default Re: Oz Politics.

    Meanwhile Tones is going to bugga us all up any way. This whole article is worth quoting in full:

    Coalition banks on blind faith in budget 'fix'

    By Greg Jericho
    Posted Wed 23 Apr 2014, 6:35am AEST
    PHOTO: The need for budget repair is regurgitated by any LNP politician within sight of a microphone. (Dean Lewins: AAP)

    Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott would prefer you just assume that "fixing the budget" will improve the economy without them actually having to demonstrate how, writes Greg Jericho.
    Among all the talk in the run-up to the budget, the overriding narrative has been that "fixing" the budget is required to fix the economy. It's a narrative the Government hopes you take on faith rather than on evidence.
    The budget emergency first related to the present situation of the budget. When this didn't fly with reality, the Government turned to the period beyond the budget estimates. This is where the ALP had apparently hidden all the blowouts in expenditure (even though expenditure in these years for programs like the NDIS and Gonski were well known)..
    EMBED: Australian Government Budget




    With budget deficits supposedly for the next decade and government debt growing, the need for budget repair is regurgitated by any LNP politician within sight of a microphone.
    Certainly the ageing population and associated increases in expenditure and declining revenue base is in need of discussion. But the Government has gone beyond this to actually arguing that moving to a surplus will improve the economy.
    Tony Abbott has articulated this view many times - such as when he told Parliament that "if you want to fix the economy, you have got to fix the budget first". Joe Hockey similarly claimed that "the bottom line here is that if we are to maintain our standard of living as a nation we have to fix the budget."
    Behind such talk is the implicit belief that ongoing deficits are bad for our economy, and the debt is a drag on our growth.
    And yet the link between government debt and economic growth is pretty skint. There is a plethora of evidence showing a correlation between the two - that increased government debt occurs at the same time as poor economic growth. But proving that debt causes lower economic growth is rather more tricky.
    Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in 2010 tried, but after much trumpeting by austerity supporters around the world, it was discovered their conclusions were based on an error in their Excel spreadsheet. Indeed, one of the reasons the budget is projected to be in deficit is because GDP growth is not expected to be high like it was in the 1990s when the recovery from the recession powered the return to surplus.
    Saying that fixing the budget will fix the economy is again confusing correlation with causation.
    We are also told ratings agencies like budget surpluses. It seems we think more of ratings agencies than they think of themselves. Standard & Poor's lawyer told a court last year that "Triple A does not mean anything hanging out there as a concept," and that it was akin to Top Gear giving a car a good rating.
    While it may be nice to have a AAA rating, the reality is our bond rates are driven by numerous factors and presently the difference between Australian and USA's government 10-year bonds yields (or interest rate) is just below the 10-year average:
    EMBED: Differential between Australian & US 10-year Govt Bond Yields
    Moreover, Australia is one of only eight who have a stable outlook AAA rating from all three credit agencies. So clearly the ratings agencies are not too worried about our budget emergency.
    But even if they were, a AAA rating is a hell of a thing to put before the performance of your economy. And looking across the 14 nations that have a AAA rating from at least one of the agencies, there is a pretty wide scope of performance according to GDP growth, employment and budget balances.
    EMBED: AAA Rated Countries


    continued next post...
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  19. #369
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    ...

    So if it's not debt, then what? Abbott has suggested it is because of the ability to lower taxes. He noted that "you cannot fix the economy unless you fix the budget, and a stronger budget means lower taxes and more jobs."And surely lower taxes do mean higher growth and more jobs? Well, yes. A study in the USA by economists Christina and David Romer looked at the impact of cutting taxes on growth by taking into account the context within which such tax cuts occurred. They found that a tax cut of 1 per cent of GDP could improve GDP growth by 2-3 per cent within three years.
    Except they were talking about stimulating the economy by increasing the budget deficit through tax cuts. They also noted that government spending increases would likely have a bigger impact. Even worse for Abbott, they also found that in the USA, tax cuts did nothing to reduce government spending - and certainly this was the experience in Australia during the early-mid 2000s. They also concluded that "unemployment typically rose and output fell following austerity programs".
    Moreover, a major reason why we currently have any sort of budget emergency is because of tax cuts already given. The Parliamentary Budget Office noted that:
    "Over two thirds of the 5 percentage points of GDP decline in structural receipts over the period 2002-03 to 2011-12 was due to the cumulative effect of the successive personal income tax cuts granted between 2003-04 and 2008-09."
    And the OECD data on the tax wedge (or burden) since 2004 shows that the people who benefited most from those tax cuts were high-income earners rather than those on average incomes:
    EMBED: Change in income tax burden since 2004 by earnings
    Of course, some argue that tax cuts can occur so long as wasteful spending is cut by more. Except "wasteful" generally means "spending we don't like", or "spending the people who pay us to lobby/think tank for them don't like". Also government spending tends to worry more about inequality than does the supposedly more efficient private spending, which is not much of a concern to those for whom inequality is something that happens to other people.
    A couple weeks ago the Secretary of the Treasury, Dr Martin Parkinson, delivered a speech in which he talked of our living standards and fiscal sustainability.
    However, his focus on living standards was "weak productivity growth, a falling terms of trade, and an ageing population". When he attempted to link our standard of living with the budget he referred to the need to build up our reserves so that should another global recession hit, we could respond similar to how we did in 2008-09.
    When he mentioned taxation he talked about the desirability of shifting the dependence from income tax to indirect taxes such as the GST more than about reducing our taxes overall.
    In the past, the talk was of budget surpluses over the cycle - that when our economy was performing at trend or above, the government should shift to a surplus. Now the Government has moved to suggesting that shifting to a surplus will see the economy grow above trend.
    At present Hockey and Abbott would prefer you just assume their "fixing the budget" will improve the economy without actually having to demonstrate how. Perhaps this is because it removes their need to talk about things like the GST and your blind faith will also make it easier for them to break their election promises.
    Greg Jericho writes weekly for The Drum. He tweets at @GrogsGamut. View his full profile here.
    For some reason the graphs didn't copy across but if you hit the link at the top of the above post you'll get them.
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  20. #370
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    I suspect Duncan that their's is another motive, like revenge.

  21. #371
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    Well well who would have believed it, the NSW liberal party as corrupt as the labour party.
    Trump, a man who can't hold a coherent thought till the end of the sentence.

  22. #372
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    Quote Originally Posted by WX View Post
    Well well who would have believed it, the NSW liberal party as corrupt as the labour party.
    Really ? Amazing !
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  23. #373
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    Two sides of the same bad penny, same troughs just different snouts. In Vic our version of the NSw commission is deliberately toothless and excepts politicians. Federally there is nothing and I doubt either major would be the slightest bit interested. Clive has an interesting decision to make here, and providing he can hold his members to the line could upset the whole apple cart. If the majors decide to change the rules midstream for their own advantage he as the wherewithall to make them look quite anti-democratic given their approbium and trust rating (12%). Come next election he may do even better if he is constructive and just let's the majors hang themselves with their own tatty rhetoric.

    Think about this, ask a politician a question and he'll answer another or push the party line, which makes people turn off.
    Just imagine if Clive and the indies managed to answer questions, admit they don't know when they don't, actually get back to the news media with answers, not spout party dogma, and just be pleasant. They may easily become the go to people for the media, instead of the usual party hacks, and the contrast will become more and more obvious as the majors get more and more cheesed off.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 04-28-2014 at 10:56 PM.

  24. #374
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    MMP.
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    I see Tones is having trouble with his own back, and front bench re a 'debt tax/levy' and his parental leave scheme.

    And Fraser is on The Drum about his misgivings re the US alliance, the present uses of Pine Gap as a targeting facility for drones, and the secret nature of extrajudicial killings performed by this facility. Thinks that in 20 years time we, and the US will be the targets if they are not banned as a weapon of war. He reckons that the US alliance is a bigger threat to Australia than anything else. I am inclined to agree.
    But I have no doubt that we will continue to brown nose our way to whatever new disaster the US thinks is appropriate.

  26. #376
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    I think I'm streaming Mal Frazer, a strange thought when I think back to the Vietnam Moratorium demos . He's moved more than me .
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  27. #377
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    Yup, I remember Fraser and Marshal Ky hovering over a demo in St Kilda Rd in a Huey. And watched with satisfaction as a notorious and particularly aggressive copper had his knees kicked in by a friend who happened to be also special forces in civvies on leave. They were using police cadets as marshals' and they were terrified, I always wondered what propaganda they'd been fed.

  28. #378
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    and sending our refugees to Cambodia is one step closer .
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  29. #379
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    Yes, and a Cambodian official saying the half the Cambodian population wanted to leave because of the economic conditions in the country at present. This is going to cost a bomb and in the end we may have to have them back.

  30. #380
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    The power of propaganda is truly amazing. We are assured, repeatedly, ad nauseam that anyone turning up at our door is an "economic migrant", a queue jumper and that logically Immigration can't assess the reality of claims. The majority apparently believes it .
    They support Labor and the LibNats.

    You may find this link interesting Jeff.
    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/r...FpbGlkPTQyMzE=
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  31. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    I see Tones is having trouble with his own back, and front bench re a 'debt tax/levy' and his parental leave scheme.
    Heh, part rolled at least, and the kites are still flying. I note there are very few economists that agree with Tones or his treasurer, and then there's his AG. Few seem to agree with him. But than there's a whole other population of Aussies out there that I have no contact with, no common ground with and I probably never have. Maybe they support the Bolt amendments.
    To quote a labour friend, Tony is hoist on his own promises petard.
    The Age features Tone's comment about 'not trusting what I say, only trust what's written down' (in policy?).
    Last edited by skuthorp; 04-30-2014 at 03:17 AM.

  32. #382
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    I'd say on the balance the Bolt thing is a loser for the Libs, it lets their pet boy talk but it will not be popular with the various and multitudinous ethnic minorities out there. Having Brandis tell the nation that it's OK to be a bigot .... or words to that effect won't play well. The bigotry only runs in one direction.

    The red necks will support Tony anyway as will the Paulines. It's the swing voters he needs and Brandis lost him quite a few.

    I support some kind of Paid Parental Scheme if only because the country is doing an interesting job of selective breeding or negative eugenics. The smart girls are all out earning and pursuing careers from which withdrawing is difficult and expensive, they seem to be having one child and only one. The prams around our town are being pushed by the kind of women I wouldn't like to find myself in conversation with . I'm sure this is only a temporary blip and we will return to normal programming before too many generations have passed.

    I'd like it to be at a reasonably low level though, $45K ?
    Last edited by PeterSibley; 04-30-2014 at 04:09 AM.
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    Well, I can't really comment as I could never see the logic involved with having children at all, and the older I get the more certain I am that my decision was right, for me at least.
    Re whose pushing the prams, and who the dads are, that's another matter entirely. But we are busy creating a class structure based on money and privilege, and I think the IPA is suggesting that state schools charge fees, 'to save the taxpayers'. Who do they think pays tax if it's not parents? And I without them I don't mind at all. Then there's Pines comment re US style colleges. RW ideology is hard at work.

  34. #384
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    Logic ? There's no logic, more like a biological imperative .

    The older I get the gladder I am I had 3 children.... what the future holds I have no idea , suspicions, but no certainty and certainly no time scale.
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    As far as I can remember 'the biological imperative' has never been on my radar. Actually I put it down to instinct. I walked away from at least 3 women I could have married because of it. It's not something you can ask a woman not to do. Anne was a different case as a pregnancy was considered dangerous for her, so she said.

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