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Thread: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

  1. #51
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Malala should be a shoe in. She earned it the hard way. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked her; it's probably the most visible award, and she's not controversial anywhere except certain regions of Pakistan. So Snowden for the win?
    Among the most enduring things about an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  2. #52
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    LOL. Exactly Lew.

    The only thing I worry about with Malala...is the "child actor" parallel. You know, cute kids become meth-headed skank dating fool spewing adults. What happens to "child Nobel Prize winners?"

  3. #53
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    The Peace Prize goes to Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. A fairly non-controversial choice.

  4. #54
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Another "most likely to succeed" Peace Prize.

    The Norwegians are very hopeful and aspirational in their Peace Prize choices, aren't they?

    Since neither the United States nor Russia have met their obligations to destroy our chemical weapons stocks by April 2012 under the Chemical Weapons Convention associated with this UN body, and this group is just beginning its work to destroy Syria's chemical weapons under extreme conditions is just beginning, one wonders.

    Given the Russian sponsorship of the Syrian effort on behalf of their unsavory client, the cynical among us wonder if we might observe the presence of one or more idiot utiles in retrospect by the time the next award is issued.

    Malala would have been a much better recipient.

  5. #55
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Malala would have been a much better recipient.
    Oy! Makes you want to slap them on the back of the head. The PP now begins to assume the status of an Oscar rather than a recognition of personal merit. They gave it to a committee!

    "Here's Billy Crystal with the envelope. And the winner is......."
    Among the most enduring things about an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  6. #56
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    How very Norwegian to award a committee.

  7. #57
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian McColgin View Post
    A fairly non-controversial choice.
    could they get any more boring?

    perhaps they are attempting to make up for erroneously giving the prize to these three war mongers two decades ago. . .

    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  8. #58
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Tehreek-e-Taliban slithers out from under a rock with its views on the award:

    The decision not to reward Pakistani teen activist Malala Yousafzai with the Nobel Peace Prize was met with disappointment and derision across the world, but at least one group was pleased: The one that tried to kill her.The Pakistani Taliban called the decision "very good news" and praised the committee for "not selecting this immature girl for this famous award," according to a statement by spokesman Shahidullah Shahid.

    Slideshow: Schoolgirl attacked by Taliban in Pakistan


    Sixteen-year-old Malala Yousafzai was shot by the Taliban for speaking out against Pakistani militants and promoting education for girls.

    Launch slideshow

    Yousafzai had been the bookmakers' favorite to win the prize for her campaign for girls' right to education, but she was edged out by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OCPW) in an announcement Friday.

    After receiving death threats from the Taliban for defying the Islamist militant group with her outspoken views on the right to education, the 16-year-old was shot a year ago while on a school bus near her village in Swat in northwestern Pakistan.

    She recovered after she was flown to Britain for surgery, but the militants, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban, have vowed to try again.

    "If we get another chance, we will definitely kill her and that will make us feel proud," Shahid said.

    The also have reportedly threatened to kill the shopkeepers in her home country if they are found selling the teenager’s new book, "I Am Malala."

    A Twitter account for the Malala Fund congratulated the weapons watchdog on their selection.
    “Congratulations @OPCW on winning the #Nobelpeaceprize and your wonderful work for humanity. Honoured to have been nominated @Nobelprize_org,” it read.
    http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2...i-taliban?lite

    Here is the vile Mr. Shahid, seated in the center.


  9. #59
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    We can be disappointed, but we might also recognize that a group of people who spend their time in the most dangerous parts of the world in an effort to remove hideous weapons from the face of the earth are also worthy of recognition.

    Congratulations to them, and great good luck to them in the successful pursuit of their truly quite noble goals.

    Those Taliban are really something. Malala remains an inspiration to us, an amazing woman.
    Among the most enduring things about an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  10. #60
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    We haven't heard the last from Ms Malala.

  11. #61
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    OK, so now the Most Important Nobel Prize, Economics.

    Here's the Wall Street Journal's take on the potential candidates. So many economists!!

    Here are names — some perennials on Nobel shortlists — that economists say are contenders for what many consider the field’s highest honor.

    If the award is for work on financial crises, banks, liquidity and regulation, Douglas Diamond of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Philip Dybvig, of the Olin School of Business at Washington University, St. Louis, are headliners. In 1983, the pair wrote a seminal paper spelling out why bank runs happen. The authors explained that deposit insurance could reassure customers and keep them from panicking and pulling their money out en masse.

    Another name cited for finance and regulation is Jean Tirole, of the Toulouse School of Economics, who has done work on industrial organizations, antitrust and the regulation of corporations. Other potential winners in this area include Bengt Holstrom, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Oliver Hart, of Harvard University; Gary Gorton, of the Yale School of Management and Paul R. Milgrom of Stanford University. Mr. Milgrom’s areas of research include auctions, akin to last year’s laureates, Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapley. Messrs. Roth and Shapley worked, separately, on how markets, such as the system for pairing medical residents with hospitals, come up with matches.
    For his fundamental work in finance, game theory and corporate economics, David Kreps, of Stanford Business School, also is seen as a potential laureate.

    Some observers say 2013 may be the year for econometrics — the application of math and statistics to economic data — because the most recent Nobel in the area was awarded 10 years ago, to Robert Engle and Clive Granger. If they are correct, Lars Peter Hansen, of the University of Chicago, is seen by many as a shoo-in. He developed a widely used econometric tool, the Generalized Method of Moments, for running regression analyses, which economists use to uncover relationships among variables. Jerry Hausman, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also is considered a strong candidate.

    If 2013 is the year for behavioral economics, contenders include Robert Shiller, of Yale, who challenged the idea that financial markets are completely efficient, with asset prices reflecting all available information at a given moment. Instead, movements in stock prices are far more volatile than would be justified by fundamental information, such as dividends. Prices, Mr. Shiller concluded, move for many strange reasons. One reason for market inefficiency, according to another possible Nobelist, Richard Thaler, of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, may be the fact that people have biases — and don’t always make the best long-term decisions.

    If the Nobel honors work on economic growth, many see Paul Romer, of New York University’s Stern School of Business, and Robert Barro, of Harvard, as inevitable. A handful of key papers by Mr. Romer emphasized the importance of investment in human capital, ideas, innovation and research and development in expanding an economy. Mr. Romer runs NYU’s Urbanization Project, which helps cities plan to absorb expanding populations and also is working on establishing completely new cities. Mr. Barro, in research from the early 1990s, used personal income and state growth data from the U.S. to show that poor regions or countries expand faster than rich ones.

    Other possible Nobelists for economic growth include Philippe Aghion, of Harvard, and Peter Howitt, who have written papers and books together on the subject. They have focused on Schumpeter’s idea of “creative destruction” — in which an economy grows because competition spurs inventions as well as innovation in technology.

    Princeton
    ’s Angus Deaton, who has studied growth and economic development in rich and poor countries, also is said to be in the running.
    For some time, news and data firm Thomson Reuters has published predictions of Nobel laureates, based on research citations. The firm is one for three in its 2013 forecasts, nailing the physics winners but missing the mark in medicine and chemistry. (The physics prize went, as widely expected, to François Englert and Peter Higgs, the scientists behind the “God particle” breakthrough.)

    Thomson Reuters’ predictions start with Joshua Angrist, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; David Card, of the University of California, Berkeley and Alan Krueger, of Princeton, for “their advancement of empirical microeconomics.”

    Their research has tapped “natural experiments” to understand health, education and labor markets. Messrs. Angrist and Krueger studied how the Vietnam lottery draft affected mens’ lifetime earnings. Mr. Card examined the effect of the 1980 Mariel boat lift, which brought Cuban emigrants to Miami, on the city’s labor market. He also worked with Mr. Krueger on a paper studying the effects of the minimum wage on employment.

    Thomson Reuters’ slate also includes Sir David Henry, of Oxford; M. Hashem Pesaran, of Cambridge and the University of Southern California at Los Angeles; and Peter Phillips, of Yale, for “their contributions to economic time-series, including modeling, testing and forecasting.”

    The firm’s predictions conclude with a pair of University of Chicago candidates: Sam Peltzman, of the Booth School, and Judge Richard Posner, of the Law School, for “extending economic theories of regulation.”

  12. #62
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    I have no idea who will win, of course.

    So I'll start with the purely personal angle. I'm rooting for Bengt Holstrom or Robert Shiller, who taught at Yale school of management when I was there, or Gary Gorton who now teaches at Yale. This would keep my personal streak of Nobel connections alive: I had an honors macroeconomics seminar with Thomas Sargeant (who won in 2011); intermediate welfare economics with Leonid Hurwicz (2007); and business cycle theory with Edward Prescott (2004). I never took a class with Oliver Williamson (2009) but heard him lecture.

    The only prospect with a political angle would be Judge Posner of the University of Chicago, who was both an economic theorist and judge implementing a number of actual decisions based on the theories that he and others developed around markets and regulation.

  13. #63
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    OK, so now the Most Important Nobel Prize, Economics.
    LOL!
    Among the most enduring things about an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  14. #64
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Seven years ago today Al Gore got his Nobel.

  15. #65
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    The economics prize, to be announced tomorrow, is a puzzlement.

    The committee in recent years has attempted to be relevant. So what are the most pressing current issues?

    You could pick microeconomists who explain labor markets and why the rich are getting richer. That would say Angrist, Card and Krueger. The problem is, they gave an award to Pissarides and Diamond for this in 2010.

    Maybe be economic growth? Japan has been in a 30 year doldrum, Europe is sputtering and the U.S. is fragile. You can even see slowing in China. That would say Barro and Romer.

    Or or they could play small ball and give the award to a wonk whose work is crucial but not in some current spotlight. That could be Henry, Pessaran and Philips for econometrics, or Shiller for behavioral economics.

    Sigh. It's like Christmas morning. Whaddya open first?

    I'm betting on Shiller.

  16. #66
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    My sister's father in law won for economics in 2000, I think. That is my tenuous link to fame.
    Last edited by SMARTINSEN; 10-14-2013 at 06:38 AM.
    Steve Martinsen

  17. #67
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Would it be bragging to say I called it?

    The 2013 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel was awarded jointly to Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller "for their empirical analysis of asset prices".

    Eugene F. Fama, Robert J. Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen shared the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for at times conflicting research on how financial markets work and assets such as stocks are priced.

    The three economists, all Americans, “laid the foundation for the current understanding of asset prices,” the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which selects the winner, said today in Stockholm. “It relies in part on fluctuations in risk and risk attitudes, and in part on behavioral biases and market frictions.”


    Their work spans almost 50 years of research, beginning with the finding by the University of Chicago’s Fama that it’s difficult to predict price movements in the short run. That conclusion forms the basis for the theory that financial markets are efficient and led to the development of stock-index funds.


    Later papers by Shiller and the University of Chicago’s Hansen focused on longer-run price swings and the extent to which they could be explained by such fundamental features as dividend payouts on stocks and the risk appetite of investors. Yale University’s Shiller, in particular, took issue with the argument that investors are always logical, using the phrase “irrational exuberance” to explain run-ups in asset prices.


    The winners represent a “very interesting collection because Fama is the founder of the efficient-market theory and Shiller at least is one of the critics of it,” said Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel economics prize in 1987 and professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
    To learn why giving this prize to these three economists is "like giving the prize to the Yankees and the Red Sox" read more here:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...demy-says.html

  18. #68
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Would it be bragging to say I called it?
    i've listened to every nobel winner in the last week, to the best of my knowledge these are the only ones to use the platform to make a political statement, by saying that the number one economic crisis confronting the world is income and wealth inequality*, good on them for doing so. . .


    * norm should be happy
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

  19. #69
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    Default Re: The 2013 Nobel Prize thread

    They would be right for saying that.

    Still - I CALLED it, oh yeah.

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