Is Obama losing the Jewish vote?

[genglandoh]

In 2008 Obama got 72% of the Jewish vote.
Based on the following I think he will get less support.

1. Obama turns off Jewish voters
   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...VIlQ_blog.html
2. Obama Losing New York's Jewish Support
   http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/156833
3. Obama loses more Jewish supporters
   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...504a_blog.html
4. Democrats’ Jewish Problem is Obama
   http://www.commentarymagazine.com/20...eldon-adelson/
5. Temple Israel cancels Wasserman Schultz speech
   http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/2...wasserman.html

[Norman Bernstein]

*lol*

I don't think I've ever seen anyone work so hard at trying to find reasons to convince himself of what is so desperately wished.

[seanz]

Ok.

Let's try to make this thread relevant to the 2012 Presidential race.......if Obama is losing support amongst Jewish voters, is Romney doing anything to pick up support amongst Jewish voters? Because then it might matter.

[hanleyclifford]

I think Romney made an effort in Israel to gain Jewish support; his "gaffes" will be forgiven (stupid, lovable, goyim ) by the people who matter.

[Glen Longino]

Ha!LMAOWheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!( C)oznabrag

[LeeG]

I want my pony!

[David G]

I want my pony!

Same deal: not until you clean your room!

[johnw]

Jewish voters appear to support him more than other groups.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...support-obama/
April 3, 2012, 4:00 pm 19 Comments In Poll, Jewish Voters Overwhelmingly Support Obama

By LAURIE GOODSTEIN A poll of American Jewish voters shows that they overwhelmingly support Barack Obama for president, just as they did four years ago, and that Israel and Iran rank low on their list of priority issues in the presidential election.
The results cast doubt on the claim that Mr. Obama has alienated a significant swath of Jewish voters because of his rocky relationship with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
“We show no slippage in Jewish support for President Obama,” said Robert P. Jones, chief executive of the Public Religion Research Institute, an independent research group based in Washington D.C., which conducted the poll of 1,004 Jewish adults from Feb. 23 to March 5. The margin of error is plus or minus five percentage points.

We'll see the polls bounce around a little. In the polling business, if it's within a narrow range, that's considered noise -- the polls have a range of error, and movement within that range is not considered significant.

[Lew Barrett]

The Republican Jewish Coalition has always been the Republican Jewish Coalition. I think the traditionally high percentages of Jewish voters who reliably turn out to vote Democratic will continue to do so. June 8 Gallup Poll Review. As is typical for this group, the support for a Republican candidate is likely to hinge on economic status as much or more as on policy differences, which really, when it comes to Israel, will not be profound.

At this time Jews favor Obama over Romney on a roughly 2-1 basis (actually slightly higher) based on the Gallup Poll of June. That is down perhaps 7% from the highs people like Roosevelt and Stevenson enjoyed fifty years ago. It may slip another point or two or go the other way because of traditionally strong progressive views Jews have on social issues. When it comes to pulling the lever on election day, Jews will continue to support the Democrats. There's nothing in the laws of physics that suggests that rich Republican Jews can't vote for Romney, just as Jenna Jameson will. But really, how many porn stars or Republican Jews do you actually meet day to day?

I would not count the Jewish vote for Romney, and would be willing to place modest bets on the demographics of the outcome in November. What odds am I offered? In the end, Jews will vote in larger numbers for Obama than Romney, and I think you can count on that. Moreover, their actual policies (relative to Israel) will never be that different, and in all other regards, the Jewish demographic tends to broadly favor progressive social views. A few percentage points of slip is all I think Romney can count on. A lot of noise based on a lot of money being tossed around by a very few people.

[LeeG]

Didn't Geng post something similar a few months ago and the basis for his opinion was totally undermined by the article he used as a source?

http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ort&highlight=

Oh right, the Latin vote

[Lew Barrett]

I don't mind, rip and I've been here a long time so anybody who follows me already knows the answer. I was born Jewish, don't buy the into the religious aspects and am a confirmed agnostic who leans towards atheist in respect of any usual understanding of the answer to the question.

Of course I have a bias about what being "Jewish" means to me. I are one whatever "I" say to the contrary. Open minded folks haven't a clue about me or my heritage, bigots will always brand a New Yorker with my 'tudes as a Jew; unavoidable, so I accept it. One thing about being born in; you never really give that up. It's like saying you are not Italian with a last name of Maserati! But how I see myself is more complex.

I certainly don't think, in this respect, I see the world through terribly jaundiced eyes. My response is based on the historical evidence and the best guess one can make taken from existing broadband polls. Also, because: how many Republican Jews do you really meet? Secular Jews are extremely active and as involved as any religiously defined group in the country. Highly religious Jews, Hasidim, Lubavitch Jews (who are not Zionists, by the way) and other such groups tend to the opposite. But secular Jews are overwhelmingly liberal in their social views.

The answers will be revealed, meanwhile, what kind of odds you want to work with?

[Glen Longino]

Lew,
may I ask ??? are you Jewish ?? It is not "all that important " except that your answer suggests that you have a biased opinion based upon what I have seen.
please don't feel any obligation to answer this question

Ripley, may I ask you a question?
Are you a Right-Wing Christian Troglodyte?
Yes?
I figgered!

[genglandoh]

The Republican Jewish Coalition has always been the Republican Jewish Coalition. I think the traditionally high percentages of Jewish voters who reliably turn out to vote Democratic will continue to do so. June 8 Gallup Poll Review. As is typical for this group, the support for a Republican candidate is likely to hinge on economic status as much or more as on policy differences, which really, when it comes to Israel, will not be profound.

At this time Jews favor Obama over Romney on a roughly 2-1 basis (actually slightly higher) based on the Gallup Poll of June. That is down perhaps 7% from the highs people like Roosevelt and Stevenson enjoyed fifty years ago. It may slip another point or two or go the other way because of traditionally strong progressive views Jews have on social issues. When it comes to pulling the lever on election day, Jews will continue to support the Democrats. There's nothing in the laws of physics that suggests that rich Republican Jews can't vote for Romney, just as Jenna Jameson will. But really, how many porn stars or Republican Jews do you actually meet day to day?

I would not count the Jewish vote for Romney, and would be willing to place modest bets on the demographics of the outcome in November. What odds am I offered? In the end, Jews will vote in larger numbers for Obama than Romney, and I think you can count on that. Moreover, their actual policies (relative to Israel) will never be that different, and in all other regards, the Jewish demographic tends to broadly favor progressive social views. A few percentage points of slip is all I think Romney can count on. A lot of noise based on a lot of money being tossed around by a very few people.

I think you are missing the point.
According to the gallop poll you posted Obama got 74% of the Jewish vote but today he only has 64% of Jewish support.
That is a drop of 10%.

I do not expect Obama to get less then 50% but a drop of 10% means he is loosing support.
So you are supporting my statement that Obama will get less % of the Jewish vote then he got in 2008.

Obama only won the 2008 election with 53% of the vote so a drop of 10% is important.

[Glen Longino]

I think you are missing the point.
According to the gallop poll you posted Obama got 74% of the Jewish vote but today he only has 64% of Jewish support.
That is a drop of 10%.

I do not expect Obama to get less then 50% but a drop of 10% means he is loosing support.
So you are supporting my statement that Obama will get less % of the Jewish vote then he got in 2008.

Obama only won the 2008 election with 53% of the vote so a drop of 10% is important.

You're mixing your gibberish with your gobbledygook!
A drop of 10% in the Jewish vote is a fraction of a drop in the total vote, and it's Not Important!

[leikec]

You're mixing your gibberish with your gobbledygook!
A drop of 10% in the Jewish vote is a fraction of a drop in the total vote, and it's Not Important!

Would that turn his post into "gibberdygook"?

Jeff C

[genglandoh]

*lol*

I don't think I've ever seen anyone work so hard at trying to find reasons to convince himself of what is so desperately wished.

Basically I think many Jewish Americans strongly support Israel and see the actions of Obama as not supporting Israel.
I think this alone will translate into less votes of Obama.

The articles I posted support my opinion.

[genglandoh]

You're mixing your gibberish with your gobbledygook!
A drop of 10% in the Jewish vote is a fraction of a drop in the total vote, and it's Not Important!

So you agree with me Obama is losing support for Jewish Voters.
You just do not think is is important.

Thank you for your supporting post.

[leikec]

Is Romney "loosing" the Log Cabin republican vote?? Discuss....

Jeff C

[Glen Longino]

So you agree with me Obama is losing support for Jewish Voters.
You just do not think is is important.

Thank you for your supporting post.

Nope! I don't agree that Obama has lost any Jewish support, but if he has, it's Unimportant.
See the difference?

[Glen Longino]

Would that turn his post into "gibberdygook"?

Jeff C

It certainly would!

[Keith Wilson]

Is Obama losing the Jewish vote?

No.

​

[Glen Longino]

No.

​

But what about the Latino vote? No?
But what about the Black vote? No?
But what about the twelve-toed Mongolian Midget vote? No?
Poor genglandoh!!!!!!!!!!!

[hanleyclifford]

But what about the Latino vote? No?
But what about the Black vote? No?
But what about the twelve-toed Mongolian Midget vote? No?
Poor genglandoh!!!!!!!!!!!

That is a very insensitive reference to Mongolian voters; shame on you.

[Lew Barrett]

I think you are missing the point.
According to the gallop poll you posted Obama got 74% of the Jewish vote but today he only has 64% of Jewish support.
That is a drop of 10%.

I do not expect Obama to get less then 50% but a drop of 10% means he is loosing support.
So you are supporting my statement that Obama will get less % of the Jewish vote then he got in 2008.

Obama only won the 2008 election with 53% of the vote so a drop of 10% is important.

The poll I posted shows Jewish support as of June, 2012 at 64% versus 29% for Romney, compared to 74% for Obama in 2008. Please review the numbers because you are not reading the same results I am. That is a 2(plus) to one(-) advantage for Obama. Yes, his support has eroded by 10% of the polled Jewish voters according to that poll, but an equally fair way of reading the same poll is to say that he is currently polling 220% higher than Romney with Jewish voters. And this number can as well swing up. Jewish voters have historically voted for Democratic candidates at rates between 19% and 90%, but the mean stands about where Obama is now. It would be better for him if that number was above 70%, but I think it will be at the end. Somewhere between 23 and 29% of registered Jewish voters are Republicans. I suggest that this is the range of numbers Romney can really rely on. Currently he stands at 29%. Plus or minus two percent, that is about what's in the wood for him; the best he could do. Elections are close. No doubt every vote counts. Spending a lot of energy courting the Jewish vote will not be productive to the extent you suggest, and you can bank on it.


If the poll numbers are accurate, Obama's pull with Jewish voters is about average for the record. But I think whatever losses Obama has suffered, it's pretty much done as far as the Jewish vote is concerned. I won't discount 10% as trivial, but I bet a bunch come back, perhaps as much as 5-6%. Moreover, Romney has failed to capitalize on Obama's loss. Of that 10%, he has only picked up 6%. The remaining four (we might assume) are undecided.

As usual. the battle will be for undecided votes. Meanwhile, what are my odds?

[L.W. Baxter]

Meh.

[Lew Barrett]

Meh? Feh!

[LeeG]

Geng, what about the Evangelical Christian vote? How is Romney doing with that?

[Glen Longino]

That is a very insensitive reference to Mongolian voters; shame on you.

You round up a herd of insulted twelve-toed Mongolian Midgets for me and I'll apolologize to them, okay?
But if it's just you who has taken offense by my remark, go suck eggs!

[ljb5]

Spending a lot of energy courting the Jewish vote will not be productive to the extent you suggest, and you can bank on it.

Republicans don't care so much about winning the Jewish vote. They pander to Jews to appeal to right-wing Christians and hardcore anti-Muslims.

There is a sizable portion of American Jews who are not Zionists and are not anti-Palestinian. Many feel that the hardline position that American right-wing Christians (and some Jews) take on Palestine is making the situation worse, not better.

On nearly every issue besides Israel, Republicans have a very hard time attracting Jews. If Republicans want to get serious about winning the Jewish vote, they're going to have to talk about something other than Israel.

[David G]

Will G-England-Oh ever post a thread with a statement as the title?

Do you get these burning-questions-of-the-week from some website, e.g. Conservatism for Dummies?

Do you realise that you come across as a spineless political weasel?

Chip - it's a schtick. A way to troll without coming on too strong. An attempt to appear open to discussion. He's not, I repeat... NOT... open to discussion. As per my usual - I initially took him at face value, and treated his queries as serious attempts at dialogue and searches for truth. It eventually became clear that such is not their function. They're simply a way to spread doubt and disinformation. As to the style... the psychologists would call it 'passive-aggressive'. I no longer engage him with interest and respect. I suggest the same course to others.

[Glen Longino]

chip - it's a schtick. A way to troll without coming on too strong. An attempt to appear open to discussion. He's not, i repeat... Not... Open to discussion. As per my usual - i initially took him at face value, and treated his queries as serious attempts at dialogue and searches for truth. It eventually became clear that such is not their function. They're simply a way to spread doubt and disinformation. As to the style... The psychologists would call it 'passive-aggressive'. I no longer engage him with interest and respect. I suggest the same course to others.

bingo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Keith Wilson]

Ljb has it exactly right. American Evangelical Christians tend for theological reasons to be very strong supporters of the more intransigent elements in Israel. Mr Romney's recent trip to Israel has far more to do with them than with Jews. The exception is Sheldon Adelson, who's good for a whole lot of TV advertising time all by himself.

[johnw]

You know, geng, if you ask politely, I'll bet you could get those of Jewish descent on the forum to tell us whether they support Romney, and whether they supported Obama last time. It's unscientific, but would give you a chance to explore whether they've decided to leave the Democrats behind because they don't like President Obama's policies. If a quarter of Jews are Republicans, he's got a built-in floor to how many he will appeal to, and if in fact Jews are leaving Obama behind, he should have substantially more than a quarter of the Jewish vote on the forum. It might be more informative than demonstrating that you've got links to sites that agree with you.

[Lew Barrett]

Ljb has it exactly right......... The exception is Sheldon Adelson,

Yes he does. Adelson is somewhat unique; not entirely of course. He is a mirror onto a small percentage of exceptionally wealthy Jewish business people who have intense feelings of the Tea Party style. It's a small number, and Adelson in particular was who I was referring to when I said in so many words that it's much ado about a small number of people throwing around a large quantity of money.

[genglandoh]

Will G-England-Oh ever post a thread with a statement as the title?

Do you get these burning-questions-of-the-week from some website, e.g. Conservatism for Dummies?

Do you realise that you come across as a spineless political weasel?

I like to start my posts with a question because I am interested in others opinions.
Sorry but the subject of these posts are things I am interested in, not from any website.

Do you have any opinion on the subject?

[genglandoh]

I think his support among decent, rational Jews remains high. Among hyper-Zionist warmongering vice-lords like Adelson, I suspect he never had much support. Jewish political opinion is at least as diverse as that among the entire US population.

You posted the thread. What's your opinion? Straight talk. No links.

Can you make a post without insulting people?
I think many Jewish Americans support Israel and see Obama actions as being anti–Israel.
IMHO this will cost Obama some votes and my prediction is Obama will get about 5%-10% less jewish votes.

[Lew Barrett]

Can you make a post without insulting people?
I think many Jewish Americans support Israel and see Obama actions as being anti–Israel.
IMHO this will cost Obama some votes and my prediction is Obama will get about 5%-10% less jewish votes.

That's possible. but it is a long way from "losing the Jewish vote." And all in, if it's more than 5% I'd be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised if it's just a couple of points though. That seems more likely to me.

[ljb5]

I think many Jewish Americans support Israel and see Obama actions as being anti–Israel.

Just a few days ago, Ehud Barak said, ""But I should honestly tell you that this administration under President Obama is doing in regard to our security more than anything that I can remember in the past."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226439772901

I'm kinda surprised you didn't mention that. It was all over the news.

IMHO this will cost Obama some votes and my prediction is Obama will get about 5%-10% less jewish votes.

2008 was a very good year for the Democrats, largely for reasons unrelated to Mr. Obama. 2012 is likely to be a tough year for the Democrats -- again, for reasons largely unrelated to Obama.

That's just the normal ebb and flow of politics. Obama will probably lose a point or two across all demographics. That does not mean that he's 'losing' specific demographics.

Your last link, about Wasserman-Schultz's appearance seems to be mostly about one rich Republican throwing a temper tantrum and using his money to get his way; not much about Obama.

[LeeG]

Hey Geng, do you think it's possible that Americans "lost the Jewish vote" when a trillion dollar war was spent to eliminate one of Israel's enemies on trumped up intel facilitated by AIPAIC and neocons sympathetic to Israeli interests?

[genglandoh]

I think his support among decent, rational Jews remains high. Among hyper-Zionist warmongering vice-lords like Adelson, I suspect he never had much support. Jewish political opinion is at least as diverse as that among the entire US population.

You posted the thread. What's your opinion? Straight talk. No links.

Yes your statement about Jews who do not support Obama is insulting

[Glen Longino]

Yes your statement about Jews who do not support Obama is insulting

Insulting to whom, all Jews are just you?
I don't feel insulted, do you?
btw, rather than speculate wildely about Obama "losingn the Jewish vote" just wait ninety(90)days and look at the results!

[Lew Barrett]

I'm not insulted by Chip-skiff. It's impossible to avoid the subject of Jews in a thread that is titled "Jewish vote." I understand Chip's comment to be descriptive of the political attitudes of the minority of Jews who agree with Adelson's position, not a slam at Jewishness as a culture, ethnicity or religion. I am as sensitive to anti-Semitism as the most ardent and fervent Hasidic Jew, although I share almost no religious tenets with them.

[LeeG]

Yes your statement about Jews who do not support Obama is insulting

you goofball, you're interpreting non-supporters to be hyper-zionist warmonngering vice-lords when that is not what Chip said when he said "like Adelson". Would you consider that the lack of support by evangelical Christians for Romney is a greater factor in Obamas favor than traditional Jewish vote that is primarily Democrat dropping a few points? A few months ago you tried to make the same argument that a decline in Latino support was a negative for Obama when in actuality the drop from McCain to Romney was a larger drop than Obama in 2008 to Obama in 2012. In other words what you interpreted as a drop was actually a greater lead for Obama in 2012 vs 2008.

[genglandoh]

I'm not insulted by Chip-skiff. It's impossible to avoid the subject of Jews in a thread that is titled "Jewish vote." I understand Chip's comment to be descriptive of the political attitudes of the minority of Jews who agree with Adelson's position, not a slam at Jewishness as a culture, ethnicity or religion. I am as sensitive to anti-Semitism as the most ardent and fervent Hasidic Jew, although I share almost no religious tenets with them.

So calling someone a hyper-Zionist warmongering vice-lords like Adelson is not insulting.

Is it OK to say?
I think Romney's support among decent, rational Jews remains high.
Among commie pinko baby killers like Wasserman-Schultz, I suspect he never had much support.

I think most people would find both statements insulting.

[ljb5]

I think Romney's support among decent, rational Jews remains high.

Can you quantify that?

He's losing by a 2:1 margin. You sure you want to call that "support"?

[Cuyahoga Chuck]

Here's a synopsis of current polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...171.html#polls

You can't do much better than Real Clear. Notice the predominence of the color BLUE. Whatever the Jews may or may not be doing they don't seem to be bringing Obama down. So, why not get off this never ending "what- if" bender? The chance that your pony will finally show up this November if rather slim at the moment.

[Lew Barrett]

So calling someone a hyper-Zionist warmongering vice-lords like Adelson is not insulting.
.

It's insulting only to Adelson, and in his case, it seems to be true. Not all Jews are Zionists, and not all Zionists are Jews. For instance, while I strongly support Israel's right to exist, I don't support all the features of the Netanyahu government. As with all political spectra, there is a right, left and center. I take his comment to mean "ultra right." I don't take him to be anti-Semitic. He can correct me if I am wrong, and perhaps it is time for him to speak for himself on this matter. If he disagrees about Israel's right to exist we can discuss that as another issue. But even in that (hypothetical) case, I wouldn't expect him to be able to say that Obama doesn't support Israel; you'll never hear Obama question Israels right to exist. As for Adelson, as he is a Republican supporter of Romney with a specific agenda in respect to Israel, and one I think him mistaken on, he'll find little succor exists in my heart for his political position, and I will not be staying in any of his hotels any time real soon

[genglandoh]

It's insulting only to Adelson, and in his case, it seems to be true. Not all Jews are Zionists, and not all Zionists are Jews. For instance, while I strongly support Israel's right to exist, I don't support all the features of the Netanyahu government. As with all political spectra, there is a right, left and center. I take his comment to mean "ultra right." I don't take him to be anti-Semitic. He can correct me if I am wrong, and perhaps it is time for him to speak for himself on this matter. If he disagrees about Israel's right to exist we can discuss that as another issue. But even in that (hypothetical) case, I wouldn't expect him to be able to say that Obama doesn't support Israel; you'll never hear Obama question Israels right to exist. As for Adelson, as he is a Republican supporter of Romney with a specific agenda in respect to Israel, and one I think him mistaken on, he'll find little succor exists in my heart for his political position, and I will not be staying in any of his hotels any time real soon

Please do not get me wrong, I do not think the post was anti-semitic just insulting.

[ccmanuals]

I would suggest that pretty much in every post in the bilge you will find as a minimum one member insulting another but usually more than one.