Do you think Obama will lose OH?

[genglandoh]

I have been saying I do not think Obama can recapture the enthusiasm 2008 and that will translate into a lower voter turnout.

So I have been waiting until his rally in Columbus yesterday before giving my thoughts about Ohio.

I think Obama will lose Ohio based on the following

1. In 2008 Obama won Ohio with 51.5% of the vote (262,244 votes).
   Small win.
2. The state has a Republican Governor.
3. The state voted for Bush in 2004.
4. The unemployment rate is dropping faster than the nation.
   I think this is because of the policies of the Republican Governor not the President.
   I also think most voters in Ohio are giving the Governor credit.
5. Lower Voter turnout for Obama
   The enthusiasm is down from 2008.
   In 2008 his Columbus rally has 30,000 people.
   Yesterday he had a Columbus rally with 14,000 people.
   http://www.nydailynews.com/news/elec...icle-1.1073084

[wardd]

wishful thinking

[Tom Montgomery]

Come back and ask me in September.

[Glen Longino]

What are you saying, genglandoh?
You believe the majority of voters in Ohio are blind, dumb, and ignorant Regressive Troglodytes?
Yes?
I figgered!

[wardd]

What are you saying, genglandoh?
You believe the majority of voters in Ohio are blind, dumb, and ignorant Regressive Troglodytes?
Yes?
I figgered!

come november and they vote for mitt , then we will know they are

[PeterSibley]

Looking from far,far away I'd say the Republican Primaries have been working very nicely for Obama.

[Cuyahoga Chuck]

I have been saying I do not think Obama can recapture the enthusiasm 2008 and that will translate into a lower voter turnout.

So I have been waiting until his rally in Columbus yesterday before giving my thoughts about Ohio.

I think Obama will lose Ohio based on the following

1. In 2008 Obama won Ohio with 51.5% of the vote (262,244 votes).
   Small win.
2. The state has a Republican Governor.
3. The state voted for Bush in 2004.
4. The unemployment rate is dropping faster than the nation.
   I think this is because of the policies of the Republican Governor not the President.
   I also think most voters in Ohio are giving the Governor credit.
5. Lower Voter turnout for Obama
   The enthusiasm is down from 2008.
   In 2008 his Columbus rally has 30,000 people.
   Yesterday he had a Columbus rally with 14,000 people.
   http://www.nydailynews.com/news/elec...icle-1.1073084

Sorry dude! No pony for you on election day!

[LeeG]

Geng, you think a lot!

[Glen Longino]

Geng, you think a lot!

Albeit, wishful and delusional thinking!

[leikec]

John W. covered this pretty well in the Florida thread. Romney needs to win all of the tossup states:

Florida

Colorado

Iowa

Missouri

North Carolina

Arizona

Then he also needs to win Ohio and Virginia (which would get him 281 electoral votes), or Ohio and Michigan (284), or Ohio and Pennsylvania (288).


There are other possible scenarios, but a Romney victory would most likely come from one of the above combinations.

Losing either Ohio or Florida would be a disaster for Romney--it would be very difficult for him to find a way to get past 270 electoral votes without both of those states in his column.

Jeff C

[genglandoh]

John W. covered this pretty well in the Florida thread. Romney needs to win all of the tossup states:

Florida

Colorado

Iowa

Missouri

North Carolina

Arizona

Then he also needs to win Ohio and Virginia (which would get him 281 electoral votes), or Ohio and Michigan (284), or Ohio and Pennsylvania (288).


There are other possible scenarios, but a Romney victory would most likely come from one of the above combinations.

Losing either Ohio or Florida would be a disaster for Romney--it would be very difficult for him to find a way to get past 270 electoral votes without both of those states in his column.

Jeff C

You are talking about the Huffington Post Election map showing (based on their opinion) which states are going to be tossup states.
They only have 6 states ranked at tossup states, but we all know there are many more states that are in play.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-electoral-map

Well the Huffington post has already given Obama 288 Electoral Votes.
Maybe we should call off the election.

I am looking at the states one by one starting with the ones Obama won by a small margin and working up the list.

Please also notice I am thinking about what is happening in each state and not just looking at a poll.
IMHO both Romney and Obama have many combination of states that will give them 270 Electoral Votes.

I noticed you has not given you thoughts about Ohio.
So do you think Obama will lose Ohio?

[leikec]

You are talking about the Huffington Post Election map showing (based on their opinion) which states are going to be tossup states.
They only have 6 states ranked at tossup states, but we all know there are many more states that are in play.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-electoral-map

Well the Huffington post has already given Obama 288 Electoral Votes.
Maybe we should call off the election.

I am looking at the states one by one starting with the ones Obama won by a small margin and working up the list.

Please also notice I am thinking about what is happening in each state and not just looking at a poll.
IMHO both Romney and Obama have many combination of states that will give them 270 Electoral Votes.

I noticed you has not given you thoughts about Ohio.
So do you think Obama will lose Ohio?

No, I think the president will win Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. He will also win the election.


Jeff C

[genglandoh]

No, I think the president will win Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. He will also win the election.


Jeff C

Well it looks like Obama is a little worried about Ohio andFlorida.

Ohio, Florida dominate Obama campaign ad buy
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/08/ohio-florida-dominate-obama-campaign-ad-buy/

Summary of the spending from the above story.
Ohio $5Million
Florida $5Million
North Carolina $2.237million
Iowa $2.28million
Colorado $2.2million
Nevada $1.884million
Pennsylvania $1.876million
Virginia $1.779 million
New Hampshire $1.446million

[leikec]

Well it looks like Obama is a little worried about Ohio andFlorida.

Ohio, Florida dominate Obama campaign ad buy
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/08/ohio-florida-dominate-obama-campaign-ad-buy/

Summary of the spending from the above story.
Ohio $5Million
Florida $5Million
North Carolina $2.237million
Iowa $2.28million
Colorado $2.2million
Nevada $1.884million
Pennsylvania $1.876million
Virginia $1.779 million
New Hampshire $1.446million

Of course he's "worried"...but the Obama campaign also realizes that the electoral math is almost impossible for Romney if the president wins both states. Both reasons merit spending big in Ohio and Florida.

Do you think Romney will win Michigan or Pennsylvania? You said Romney has "many combination of states" that will give him 270 electoral votes--what combination allows him to lose either Florida or Ohio and still win the election?

Jeff C

[genglandoh]

Of course he's "worried"...but the Obama campaign also realizes that the electoral math is almost impossible for Romney if the president wins both states. Both reasons merit spending big in Ohio and Florida.

Do you think Romney will win Michigan or Pennsylvania? You said Romney has "many combination of states" that will give him 270 electoral votes--what combination allows him to lose either Florida or Ohio and still win the election?

Jeff C

With the economy still in bad shape all of the states that are considered battleground states are in play.

I am not ready to call all of these states (including MI and PA) at this time but I have called FL and OH.

You will just have to stay tuned until events unfold for the other states and then I will make my calls.

[leikec]

With the economy still in bad shape all of the states that are considered battleground states are in play.

I am not ready to call all of these states (including MI and PA) at this time but I have called FL and OH.

You will just have to stay tuned until events unfold for the other states and then I will make my calls.

I can hardly wait...

There are 47 states you haven't covered. When will we have our next "Do you think Obama will lose ________?" thread?

Jeff C

[Cuyahoga Chuck]

You are talking about the Huffington Post Election map showing (based on their opinion) which states are going to be tossup states.
They only have 6 states ranked at tossup states, but we all know there are many more states that are in play.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-electoral-map

Well the Huffington post has already given Obama 288 Electoral Votes.
Maybe we should call off the election.

I am looking at the states one by one starting with the ones Obama won by a small margin and working up the list.

Please also notice I am thinking about what is happening in each state and not just looking at a poll.
IMHO both Romney and Obama have many combination of states that will give them 270 Electoral Votes.

I noticed you has not given you thoughts about Ohio.
So do you think Obama will lose Ohio?

Read it and weep. Forget the "what ifs".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

[David W Pratt]

Good points, but OH also has a huge college student population, how many will vote in OH?
How many will work for BO?

[genglandoh]

Good points, but OH also has a huge college student population, how many will vote in OH?
How many will work for BO?

The 2012 Rally was at Ohio State in Columbus Oh and he could only get 1/2 of the people he got in 2008.
I do not think the youth vote will show up this time.

Some more recent news from the right wing press.

How Loss Of Enthusiasm Among Youth Voters Could Cost Obama The Presidency
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1620253.html

[Cuyahoga Chuck]

The 2012 Rally was at Ohio State in Columbus Oh and he could only get 1/2 of the people he got in 2008.
I do not think the youth vote will show up this time.

Some more recent news from the right wing press.



How Loss Of Enthusiasm Among Youth Voters Could Cost Obama The Presidency
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1620253.html

It starts with the word "how" meaning the explaination is conditional. But keep digging anyway. Your pony is in there somewhere.

[RonW]

What are you saying, genglandoh?
You believe the majority of voters in Ohio are blind, dumb, and ignorant Regressive Troglodytes?

Only 2/3rds of us are, and we will not vote for Barry by 60%. It will be be the ABO vote..............

The 40% socialist will vote for him, unfortunately.

[leikec]

Would anyone know the date of the 2008 Columbus rally that was referenced in the link?

Jeff C

[beernd]

[QUOTE=genglandoh;3403397]I have been saying I do not think Obama can recapture the enthusiasm 2008 and that will translate into a lower voter turnout.

So I have been waiting until his rally in Columbus yesterday before giving my thoughts about Ohio.

1. The unemployment rate is dropping faster than the nation
   
   How fast is the nation dropping??

And anyway it is a secret plan between Nixon, Groucho Marx and the ManBearPig.

Mark my words and go fold your aluminum hats

[leikec]

I know there was an event in April, 2008--not sure if that is the one referenced in the OP. There was a rally right before the election in 2008...that one drew 60,000 people.

I do think comparing the 2012 rally to the earlier event is comparing apples to oranges; in 2008 Senator Obama was in a tough primary fight with Hillary Clinton.

Jeff C

[genglandoh]

I know there was an event in April, 2008--not sure if that is the one referenced in the OP. There was a rally right before the election in 2008...that one drew 60,000 people.

I do think comparing the 2012 rally to the earlier event is comparing apples to oranges; in 2008 Senator Obama was in a tough primary fight with Hillary Clinton.

Jeff C

I understand your point but unless Obama decided to have the a rally on the same day in Columbus it will always be apples to oranges.
So we all have to use our brains to decide if the 14,000 person turn out is low or not.

If you look at other rallys in april & may of 2008 Obama had very large turn outs.
So far this time around the turnout is lower.

Based on this and my other points I think Obama will not win OH.

Examples

April 18^th 2008 - Obama Draws Largest Crowd Of His Campaign At Philadelphia Rally
Some 35,000 people jammed into Independence Park to see the Democratic presidential candidate, four days before this state's crucial April 22 primary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0...-_n_97524.html

May 18^th 2008 - 75,000 attend Obama rally in Portland
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...-portland?lite

[leikec]

I understand your point but unless Obama decided to have the a rally on the same day in Columbus it will always be apples to oranges.
So we all have to use our brains to decide if the 14,000 person turn out is low or not.

If you look at other rallys in april & may of 2008 Obama had very large turn outs.
So far this time around the turnout is lower.

Based on this and my other points I think Obama will not win OH.

Examples

April 18^th 2008 - Obama Draws Largest Crowd Of His Campaign At Philadelphia Rally
Some 35,000 people jammed into Independence Park to see the Democratic presidential candidate, four days before this state's crucial April 22 primary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0...-_n_97524.html

May 18^th 2008 - 75,000 attend Obama rally in Portland
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...-portland?lite

If the president was in the thick of a primary fight your comparison would be valid. He isn't, so your comparison isn't, IMO. I also notice that you haven't responded to post #10. How do you think Romney can surmount that math?

Jeff C

[2MeterTroll]

he might; I dont think the "turnout" is a dominant feature at this point. think on this, Obama uses the internet. The etch-a-sketch is a management dolt. who thinks words like synergistic mean something in the mouths of advisers. and hasnt figured out that actual people use the net.

[John Smith]

This is an interesting year. People in Ohio probably owe much of their job opportunities to the auto industry help.

Obama has a secret weapon: Mitt Romney. The more this man speaks, the more votes Obama will get.

Of course, we don't KNOW what impact Citizens United will actually have. All the negative ads may reach a volume level that actually does backfire.

[genglandoh]

This is an interesting year. People in Ohio probably owe much of their job opportunities to the auto industry help.

Obama has a secret weapon: Mitt Romney. The more this man speaks, the more votes Obama will get.

Of course, we don't KNOW what impact Citizens United will actually have. All the negative ads may reach a volume level that actually does backfire.

It sounded good that the increase in jobs in Ohio is from the Auto Industry but after checking it is wrong.
The Auto Industry had a huge drop in jobs and has only come back a ver small amount.

So I still think most in Ohio give the Governor credit for bettering job market in Ohio

1100 jobs to 650 jobs a -40% drop
650 jobs to 700 jobs a 7% increase

http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2011/auto/

[SMARTINSEN]

How is Portman's favorability? Will he drag down Mitt or be an asset if selected as the VP?

In regards to you electoral prediction in OH, you are at odds with the present aggregated polling which indicates Obama at +5. At what point is that moving away from purple towards blue?

[leikec]

Looks like a shift in the swing states races--latest Quinnipiac polling shows the president doing well in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, despite his hiccup in June:

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html

Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1883.html

Penn: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1891.html


Jeff C

[genglandoh]

Looks like a shift in the swing states races--latest Quinnipiac polling shows the president doing well in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, despite his hiccup in June:

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html

Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1883.html

Penn: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1891.html


Jeff C

Thanks for following up.

I guess the issue is do you think the June down trend for Obama is a hiccup or are the new poll numbers a hiccup.
We will know soon.

I think the new poll numbers reflect a bounce up from Obama's immigration decission but I do not think it will last.

[Glen Longino]

I predict Obama will lose Ohio, Oklahoma, and Kentucky but Win Texas!
You heard it here first!

[John Smith]

Ohio is probably a state that appreciates that Bin Laden is dead and GM is alive, as opposed to the other way around.

[hanleyclifford]

Question: Is it true that no Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio?

[genglandoh]

Question: Is it true that no Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio?

Ohio has picked the president (both Rep & Dem) in the last 11 elections

Ohio voters correctly picked the winning presidential candidate in the last
11 elections.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/presidentialelections/

[tigerregis]

It's all moot boys. What difference will it make except to the victor? No president will accomplish anything until the isms and idealogues are gone. As long as there is a Rove or Armey or another familiar, you guys are toasted both sides.

[Keith Wilson]

Is it true that no Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio?

Yes, FWIW. I checked back through 1860, the first year a Republican won. Look here for electoral maps back through the founding of the republic. Note that they use a different color code than is standard now.

[hanleyclifford]

Yes, FWIW. I checked back through 1860, the first year a Republican won. Look here for electoral maps back through the founding of the republic. Note that they use a different color code than is standard now.

Nice stats, Keith - I knew you' have the answer; welcome back from the ionosphere.

[Keith Wilson]

. . . welcome back from the ionosphere.

I'll explain that later. It's all part of the Plan.

[Keith Wilson]

The best poll analyst I know of, Nate Silver of fiveethirtyeight.com.