This is not good - China asserting its "territorial waters" again.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Six Chinese fishing boats were picking up shells from reefs in the Scarborough Shoals; the Philippine Navy intercepted them - and three Chinese warships steamed up,,, the Filipinos, unsurprisingly, backed off.

Take a good look at the map that goes with this article:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17686107

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

See also...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16926554

[Concordia 33]

Many sci fi themes involve the next world war involving China. Since they own the rest of the world they would effectively be waging war against themselves. They seem to be using a lot of their new-found wealth to build considerable military power and entry into a space program. How long do you think it will be before they are the largest single military power and the largest presence in space exploration?

[Gerarddm]

How long? Rather a while, I think.

Being the neighborhood bully just bands your neighbors against you. And they are not necessarily pushovers. I seem to recall the North Vietnamese giving the Chinese a sharp bloody nose during some border clashes in the 70s.

[TomF]

Very interesting, ACB.

From the Philippine perspective, I can see why they'd be interested in a bit more American muscle in the region. Presumably, they feel like they are owed something for their longterm support of American military interests in the region.

International conventions and diplomacy only work when the various actors have an interest in acknowledging the same set of rules. Unfortunately, major powers have always preferred to challenge such rules when it better suited their interests. China seems to be no different.

[BrianW]

The solution is obvious...

...rename the body of water from "South China Sea" to something different. Maybe the "West Philippines Sea"?

Then the Chinese wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Here's a pretty fair account of the Chinese claim, in Wikipedia. As you see, its not a claim that has any basis in international law,
or in history:

http://p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dotted_line

and as recently as sixteen years ago China signed up to UNCLOS, including part nine:

http://www.un.org/depts/los/referenc...ifications.htm

[BrianW]

From the Philippine perspective, I can see why they'd be interested in a bit more American muscle in the region. Presumably, they feel like they are owed something for their longterm support of American military interests in the region.

Well, it's not like they didn't tell the US to leave...

Philippines Orders U.S. to Leave Strategic Navy Base at Subic Bay

By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: December 28, 1991


The Philippines told the United States today that it must withdraw from the Subic Bay naval base by the end of 1992, ending a vast American military presence that began with the capture of the islands from Spain in 1898.


The decision, which resulted from an impasse in negotiations, follows a year of intense talks between the countries on the fate of American bases in the Philippines. The announcement also comes just three days before President Bush begins a 12-day Asian tour.


The shutdown of the sprawling Subic Bay base, together with the closing of Clark Air Base after a volcanic eruption this year, amounts to the biggest reduction to date in the United States military presence in the western Pacific. The 60,000-acre Subic base is the Navy's principal supply and ship-repair installation in the region. U.S. to Look for New Sites


Although it is theoretically possible that a new agreement could be hammered out, Administration officials in Washington said that they considered this unlikely, and that they would accelerate the pullout and the search for alternative sites in the Pacific.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/wo...ted=all&src=pm

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

China is bullying the Philippines because it is easier to bully the Filipinos than to bully the Vietnamese, but the Vietnamese will be next, followed by Malaysia and Brunei.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Well, it's not like they didn't tell the US to leave...



http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/wo...ted=all&src=pm

By one vote in Congress, incidentally - the anti-US feeling was down to many years of support for "America's Boy" - Ferdinand Marcos.

But that's not really the point, is it, Brian?

The point is that if you don't stop China in the South China Sea you soon will find the PLA Navy helping itself to the Aleutians.

China can now afford a blue water navy and the most extreme nationalists are in the PLA NAVY.

With Chinese bases in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, you cannot continue to own the Indian Ocean from Diego Garcia...

etc.

[boatbuddha]

China is bullying the Philippines because it is easier to bully the Filipinos than to bully the Vietnamese, but the Vietnamese will be next, followed by Malaysia and Brunei.

Which is why Vietnam is cozying up to the US. The real worry is China acting this way will spur Japan to remilitarize.

[BrianW]

By one vote in Congress, incidentally - the anti-US feeling was down to many years of support for "America's Boy" - Ferdinand Marcos.

But that's not really the point, is it, Brian?

No, it's not. I was just pointing out why the US Navy is not there in force today.

The point is that if you don't stop China in the South China Sea you soon will find the PLA Navy helping itself to the Aleutians.

China can now afford a blue water navy and the most extreme nationalists are in the PLA NAVY.

With Chinese bases in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, you cannot continue to own the Indian Ocean from Diego Garcia...

etc.

True.

What are your thoughts on the number of US carrier groups currently deployed in the world?

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Which is why Vietnam is cozying up to the US. The real worry is China acting this way will spur Japan to remilitarize.

Oh I think the enemy of my enemy will suddenly turn out to be my friend in all sorts of places.

We are already seeing Vietnam getting closer to the USA and the Philippines has been encouraging joint exercises for quite a while now.

When China started to develop its bases in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India got the message very quickly - and the Indian Navy has been visiting both Cam Ranh Bay and Subic Bay over the past couple of years.

Approximately NOBODY in Southeast Asia wants to see China replace the USA as the regional superpower - and the people with the Navy...

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

No, it's not. I was just pointing out why the US Navy is not there in force today.

What are your thoughts on the number of US carrier groups currently deployed in the world?

I think that any reduction in naval stength by the USA now will give the PLA Navy precisely the wrong message.

And I agree with my own government adding one more carrier group. Two would be better.

[carioca1232001]

.....When China started to develop its bases in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India got the message very quickly - and the Indian Navy has been visiting both Cam Ranh Bay and Subic Bay over the past couple of years.

Well the Chinese have expressed great displeasure over this, and recently warned India to stay out of joint sub-sea oil-exploration with Vietnam:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/12540393.cms

More recently, and following the BRICS meeting in New Delhi, the tone has become more conciliatory:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/12653874.cms

In the meantime, Pakistani President Zaradari´s visit last weekend to India has fostered in an unusually amicable climate in the making between the two former rivals:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...w/12656109.cms

Is Pakistan waking up finally ?

[Dumah]

So, the worlds largest bullies are about to face off? Could prove VERY interesting.

Cheers, Dumah,
Halifax, NS

[PeterSibley]

A little more on this, here is a report of Singapore's PM suggesting to China that ASEAN was the forum to discuss problems , he also has a few significant comments on America's role and position in the world.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/wo...m_medium=email

BEIJING — In an unusual public airing of strategic problems surrounding China’s rise, the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, warned China on Thursday that it should view the United States not as a declining power, but as a nation with the ability to innovate and bounce back.

Speaking at the Central Party School, the prestigious training ground for officials of the Communist Party, Mr. Lee also suggested that China try to solve its maritime disputes in the South China Sea regionally, through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, known as Asean, rather than country by country.

Mr. Lee is the son of Lee Kuan Yew, the longtime leader of Singapore who forged strong relations with China and the United States and successfully balanced his small city-state between the two, and his views carry considerable weight among the Chinese elite. By choosing to make his pointed remarks in a prime setting like the Central Party School, the prime minister was ensuring that they carried extra heft. The president of the school is Vice President Xi Jinping, expected to be the next leader of China.

Mr. Lee addressed the question of America’s standing in the world, a subject that fascinates Chinese academics and writers in the state-run news media, many of whom have written caustically in recent months about Washington’s budget difficulties, political gridlock and what they see as a crisis of confidence.

“It is currently facing some very difficult problems, but it is not a nation in decline,” Mr. Lee said of the United States. “The U.S. is an enormously resilient and creative society, which attracts and absorbs talent from all over the world, including many from China and the rest of Asia.”

More on the link.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Very good speech by Lee Hsien Loong.

[skuthorp]

The Aussie PM has flagged increased cooperation with the US, at present a token force of marines is based in Darwin and it is likely that the US navy will make increasing use of HMAS Stirling, our base in West Australia. Then there's ASEAN which we are a member of. It's a bit of a toothless tiger at present but if the Chinese get fractious things may change quite quickly. Considering our major minerals market, and our economic health is based on flogging stuff to the Chinese it will make for an interesting situation if push comes to shove. In public anyhow no one is talking about this, but I bet it's being looked at quite high up. Or at least I hope so, with the nasty atmosphere in parliament here I wonder if they are thinking of anything but the next election.

[hanleyclifford]

Actually there is no good reason for the US to back up Vietnam or the Philippines. As the saying goes, "be careful what you ask for...you might get it".

[2MeterTroll]

this. is think, is not good.
seems to be drawing a line in the sand that we might not want someone else to draw for us.

Any one with a bit of brain power can see that we will be in conflict with China sooner or later, the Chinese have purchased insurance by buying up debt. I dont think the PLA understands how little insurance that really is.

[hanleyclifford]

We will only be in conflict with China if we keep electing stupid politicians.

[2MeterTroll]

Agreed however it will be kinda difficult to kick out and fire all of the stupid. seems we have a whole slew of stupid to get rid of. starting with the bureaucracies and ending with the elected.

We will only be in conflict with China if we keep electing stupid politicians.

[skuthorp]

If China does act up it will be because of the rise to power of the pampered sons and daughters of those who hold it now. Two, three generations away from the log march and unacquainted with the realities of a major conflict. Add in a preponderence of unmated young males that the elites need to find a distraction for lest they become too fractious at home and the formula looks somewhat dangerous. At present probably a bit of sabre rattling and to use an old term, "sending a gunboat" will hopefully suffice.

[hanleyclifford]

Agreed however it will be kinda difficult to kick out and fire all of the stupid. seems we have a whole slew of stupid to get rid of. starting with the bureaucracies and ending with the elected.

I think we have to start with the elected, and then elect representatives with the stones to dismantle both bureaucracies and pernicious institutions. Let the foreigners stew in their own juice. I've had a belly full of their whining about US imperialism; let 'em have a taste of Chinese.

[hanleyclifford]

the US has already been neutered... mostly self-inflicted

We had the opportunity to choose a man who would have "just said no", as Nancy Reagan put it; instead we get to choose between two baboons who know nothing.

[Paul Pless]

Let them have the 'South China Sea'.

[skuthorp]

I think we have to start with the elected, and then elect representatives with the stones to dismantle both bureaucracies and pernicious institutions. Let the foreigners stew in their own juice. I've had a belly full of their whining about US imperialism; let 'em have a taste of Chinese.

You do realise that if a serious conflict started the Chinese might not let you sit it out regardless of your nation's wishes. And then there's the prospect of the 'Greater East Asian co-prosperity Sphere' intruding on yours.

[hanleyclifford]

You do realise that if a serious conflict started the Chinese might not let you sit it out regardless of your nation's wishes. And then there's the prospect of the 'Greater East Asian co-prosperity Sphere' intruding on yours.

Interesting how the lefties have become the "war party"; like the man sang, "...the times they are a' changing."

[skuthorp]

We don't want a war with them down here. We are selling vast freehold to Chinese companies as well as our minerals and some suburbs of our major cities have almost more Chinese households as european ones.

[skuthorp]

A newspaper archive might help Phillip, front pages, letters and editorial etc.

[hanleyclifford]

ya know, there must have been just as many 'well reasoned' "let them have the China Sea" cries in the 1930's... I"ve often wondered what day to day thinking would have looked like... since we have only the bias of the history writers to go by

I'll tell you what it looks like, day to day, Phillip; red, like the blood of Americans making the world safe for Democracy.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

We will only be in conflict with China if we keep electing stupid politicians.

Unless your definition of a "non-stupid" politician is Neville Chamberlain, I must respectfully beg to differ.

You will be in conflict with China because the PLA has been getting free of civilian control and asserting itself in aggressive foreign moves, and because a lot of people in China think the USA is weak.

You have been here before, with Japan, in the late Thirties, and there were plenty of people saying "let them have China!"

Show weakness with China now and they will come back for a bigger helping - and by letting down your regional allies you will have weakened the USA further when China takes the next bite.

[hanleyclifford]

I see lots of problems... it was a mistake to let Saddam off in the 1st war and a mistake to try to pick up the fumbled ball (as a for-instance)
it was a mistake to elect such a weak man as president just because of his color (no one is fooling me there... the left is the home of racism)
as has been said before "Mistakes were made"

Then let us make those mistakes no more.

[pefjr]

The point is that if you don't stop China in the South China Sea you soon will find the PLA Navy helping itself to the Aleutians.

hmmm.... where have I heard this before .....I have the world in a jug and the stopper ........ah yes the Domino Theory. Next thing you know you will be asking for Bush/ Blair back. Obama,"The U.S. does not seek to contain China, the rise of a strong and prosperous China can be a source of prosperity for all nations."

[Paul Pless]

and by letting down your regional allies you will have weakened the USA further when China takes the next bite.

What is it our 'regional allies' do for us? In the end are they a net benefit to us economically or a net cost? For instance, how much does our little Mexican standoff along the 38th parallel cost us in a year? And for what, so we can buy cheap Hyundai automobiles and cell phones at the expense of American jobs, while at the same time the Koreans place strict quotas on export of manufactured and consumer goods into their market? Our Far East foreign policy is only rivaled in stupidity by our Middle East foreign policy. . .

[hanleyclifford]

Unless your definition of a "non-stupid" politician is Neville Chamberlain, I must respectfully beg to differ.

You will be in conflict with China because the PLA has been getting free of civilian control and asserting itself in aggressive foreign moves, and because a lot of people in China think the USA is weak.

You have been here before, with Japan, in the late Thirties, and there were plenty of people saying "let them have China!"

Show weakness with China now and they will come back for a bigger helping - and by letting down your regional allies you will have weakened the USA further when China takes the next bite.

If the Chinese prove to be as stupid as the Japanese, we will handle it in the event.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I notice that the Right are in favour of isolationism, once more. This fits with the general backward-looking nostalgia for the days when "America was great" attitude of the right. They want to withdraw from the world, avoid taxes, and go and live in the woods, dreaming of the Good Old Days.

"Strenuousness is the path of eternal life; sloth is the way of death" - some Asian bloke

[Paul Pless]

I notice that the Right are in favour of isolationism, once more. This fits with the general backward-looking nostalgia for the days when "America was great" attitude of the right. They want to withdraw from the world, avoid taxes, and go and live in the woods, dreaming of the Good Old Days.

"Strenuousness is the path of eternal life; sloth is the way of death" - some Asian bloke

So you can't answer my questions from post #44. Yes I favour isolationism with regards to military intervention, which is what you are promoting. My view has nothing to do with nostalgia. My view is based in pragmatism and the belief that continued expansion of the MIC can only stop if we are willing to stop being the world's policeman.

[hanleyclifford]

The trouble with Yanks is they are over sexed, over paid, and over here.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Yes, of course I can answer them, Paul - and so can you - you just need to refresh your memory of Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage. You may like to look at what happens to economies that cut themselves off from the world in order to protect their domestic industry and the jobs that go with it - remember the Soviet Union?

As to military intervention, you actually have treaties with several countries in SE Asia, which is not what you had with Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Paul Pless]

You may like to look at what happens to economies that cut themselves off from the world in order to protect their domestic industry and the jobs that go with it - remember the Soviet Union?

I'm not talking about cutting our economy off from the rest of the world. I'm talking about competing on a level playing ground, I speaking of ending subsidies for other nation's national defense. Speaking of comparative advantage, how much do you think a Hyundai would cost if South Korea payed for their own national defense?

[Steve McMahon]

What is it our 'regional allies' do for us? In the end are they a net benefit to us economically or a net cost? For instance, how much does our little Mexican standoff along the 38th parallel cost us in a year? And for what, so we can buy cheap Hyundai automobiles and cell phones at the expense of American jobs, while at the same time the Koreans place strict quotas on export of manufactured and consumer goods into their market? Our Far East foreign policy is only rivaled in stupidity by our Middle East foreign policy. . .

A very good point. When I consider the big picture over the last 20 years or so it has mostly been the conservative governments in Canada, the US, and the UK that have traded our industries away to the cheap labour countries in the name of free trade, and at great profit to the very few at the top of the food chain. Indeed, Herr Harper is well on his way to allowing many of our resourse based companies be purchased by the Chinese. It would be a good idea to send your children / grandchldren to learn Cantonese.

[Gerarddm]

Saw a news item today that Japan is contemplating purchasing those islands from their private owner. Now that would set up a nationalistic mind set on both sides, not good.

The hysteria some people feel about China is overblown. We've already won. Are they turning into us, or we them? War is imposing your culture on others. There's a Disneyland in China, I don't see many Mao jackets here.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I'm not talking about cutting our economy off from the rest of the world. I'm talking about competing on a level playing ground, I speaking of ending subsidies for other nation's national defense. Speaking of comparative advantage, how much do you think a Hyundai would cost if South Korea payed for their own national defense?

When were you last in South Korea, Paul?

You cannot be serious. Have you really got any idea of how much South Koreans spend on their national defence? The US forces are there as a "tripwire", but if people start to think that the USA will not meet its treaty obligations, the tripwire won't work.

[Gerarddm]

Perhaps he was thinking of the 'nuclear umbrella'.

[Paul Pless]

When were you last in South Korea, Paul?

Never been, I'd love to go.

The US forces are there as a "tripwire", but if people start to think that the USA will not meet its treaty obligations, the tripwire won't work.

If we weren't there as a 'trip wire', what would their defense budget look like?

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Absent the US tripwire, South Korea would certainly have developed its own nuclear deterrent, as Gerarddm rightly points out.

Seoul is in artillery range of the North; the whole country is practically an armed camp.

Sadly necessary because of the nutters over the border.

[PhaseLockedLoop]

Here's a pretty fair account of the Chinese claim, in Wikipedia. As you see, its not a claim that has any basis in international law,
or in history:

You're seriously making reference to international law? Please.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

You're seriously making reference to international law? Please.

Yes; I believe that the habit of doing so began with the United States' claim for compensation from the United Kingdom in the case of the "Alabama".


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama_Claims