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Type: Posts; User: coelcanth

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  1. Re: Looking for sources to fabricate a steel centerboard

    try these guys for a baseline quote:
    https://sendcutsend.com/

    i don't think they would do any shaping, but you could do that with a file and some time..
    maybe a grinder to start with, if you're...
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    Re: Ventilator recommendations?

    the day/night versions have a rechargeable 'C' battery soldered into the circuit
    they run at night as well
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    Re: Insurance for historic wooden boat

    if the boat is owned by a non-profit or LLC of some kind, what sort of assets would the liability-only insurance be protecting ???
    i guess it's a nihilist's take; but if you can't get insurance,...
  4. Re: Quick way to stop deck leaks for a year?

    probably a tarp or a big tent over everything would be the most foolproof way
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    the mechanism is that all three doors are in the same game pool of three, and selecting the first of them removes it from that pool.
    it is a layer of probabilities in which the first pick affects...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    no, you and Nick are both stuck on the same point..

    revealing a goat in the second round does nothing to affect the probability of a pick that was made in the past

    thinking about the reveal as...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    no that's not it

    as long as the contestant has to pick first, their door will always have worse odds than Monty's two doors

    Monty is not cheating at the game and he's not 'removing' the goat...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    what is the relationship that affects the outcome ?!??

    don't you see it by now ?
    by choosing the first door we have removed that one door from the pool of three !
    that is exactly it !! that is...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    close, but again you've made a fatal error..

    "Event A" is NOT the opening of any door, or the showing of the goat in Monty's hand..

    that event has no effect on any outcomes, except to...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    you have been taken in by the red herring
    seeing a goat is no new information

    all the information was laid out in the very beginning of the problem
    you get to choose one door,
    and Monty will...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    yes, we all agree, it could be in either slice
    but one of them is more likely
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    there is a vast difference between the two sets of doors ! (contestant's vs. MONTY'S)

    one was a single door chosen from a set of THREE
    one is a door chosen from a set of TWO out of THREE

    ! ! !...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    let's try the K.I.S.S. method:

    if we baked a pie with one whole plum in it,
    and we sliced that pie into three equal shares in which only one slice contained that sole whole plum,
    and we put two...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    you are so close to grasping this !

    understanding that the 2/3 probability is shared between BOTH of Monty's doors is key to understanding the puzzle..

    the probability that one of his two doors...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    can we agree that at the very start of the game, all doors have an equal 1 in 3 chance of containing the prize?

    and then, when contestant chooses their first door, that door still has a 1 in 3...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    you are guilty of oversimplifying

    the mechanism that affects what is behind each door are the probabilities in the first half of the game !!
    the choice that the first contestant made from a pool...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    Monty opening the door does not affect the location of the prize.
    Monty opens the door based on the location of the prize.. and so, will only open a door that contains a goat.

    even the door that...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    the first contestant cannot possibly have the same odds because when he chose his door there were more goats in the mix !!
    nobody can have 50/50 odds for that matter, because when the door first was...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    Nick,
    your diagram in post #469 is of a different game, or at least is a diagram of only the second half of this game, AFTER the player has already chosen their first door.

    your diagram is...
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    Re: Do you know the correct answer?

    i struggled a bit with this problem at first but after thinking about it, it's now clear

    maybe the confusion stems less from mathematics and more from the way we think about (perhaps) language and...
  21. Thread: Skookum Maru

    by coelcanth
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    Re: Skookum Maru

    i rate mine very highly !
    <a data-flickr-embed="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ancientcycles/14049098751/in/album-72157644108514483/" title="Rust Street"><img...
  22. Thread: Skookum Maru

    by coelcanth
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    Re: Skookum Maru

    in the past, i have had a hard time getting a good seal on diesel or gasoline fittings when using white teflon tape.
    i've had better luck with the yellow tape or Gasoila paste-type thread sealant
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    Re: Fuel system issue.

    sometimes there is a mesh strainer on the pickup itself inside the tank. it is often the first place for the algae that grows in the diesel to get stuck and cause a problem.
    unfortunately it's also...
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    Re: Finding Tufnol

    is Tufnol a brand name for some kind of plain phenolic ??

    if it is, i once found a bunch of scrap in the trash outside a factory building.. mostly 1/4" thick.. in sheets and disc shapes.
    i think...
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    Re: Lessons learned from Shellback capsize

    there's these too...
    maybe too long for all scenarios, but doubly useful

    https://duckworks.com/beach-rollers/...
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    Re: Barkley Sound Oar and Paddle defunct?

    the sign out front also says 'business for sale'

    maybe this shop is a good alternative ?:

    http://www.towerwebsites.com/websites/index.php?username=fancyoars-paddles&page=3
    ...
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    Re: Interior condensation

    how about cat crap what the skiers and scuba divers use on their goggles ?
    https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51XTOF5Xj7L._AC_SL1200_.jpg
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    Re: SF Craigslist: 1948 Rangleley Yacht Tender

    this old one sounds downright friendly !


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xw0eSLn3u0
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    Re: SF Craigslist: 1948 Rangleley Yacht Tender

    it's water cooled, innit ?? i think that would tone the volume
    also, much lower rpm than your average mower
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    Re: fix orange peel texture in West System

    wonder if those squeegees the screen printers use would be useful ?

    https://pleiger.com/wp-content/uploads/Squeegee-in-Handles.jpg
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    Re: Blending new plank before varnishing

    how to make new plank look like 100 year old plank ??

    what about applying no coating at all for the first year or so of use and weather and then varnishing it ??
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    Re: Obsolete parts catalogues

    preliminary research tells me it is a sort of fairlead made with a thimble spliced into a short length of line..
    like the antique version of these low friction ring loops...
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    Re: Gaff/gunter rig main reefing systems

    modern rigs sometimes use a single line "jiffy reefing" system with cheek blocks to tame the tack and clew at the same time (in theory).
    it's a lot of line and can add a lot of friction especially...
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    Re: Murray Major MW8 winches

    maybe these would work if you wanted to drive to maine ?.. although these come complete with some other winches..
    price at $180 seems fair, for everything you get
    ...
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    Re: Anchor Catting Methods

    here's an example of a nice boat with two fisherman and bronze hooks near the stemhead for storage:
    http://towndock.net/img/14238.jpg

    https://towndock.net/shippingnews/mimi-rose
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    Re: what's the story behind this?

    Ange Lecci, print 130 102 cm, Typhoon, arrangement 1993

    The mirrors of Ange Leccia at the Six Gallery




    January 22, 2019

    ...solo show by Ange Leccia at Galleria Six in Milan, where the...
  37. Re: Anyone notice? You could win a pair of oars via our sister publication.

    maybe
    Hodgdon Brothers yard founded 1816 in Damariscotta, ME

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodgdon_Yachts
  38. Re: Anyone notice? You could win a pair of oars via our sister publication.

    sometimes the start date for Wilcox-Crittenden is given as 1847

    https://lannangallery.com/pages/wilcox-crittenden-c-1847
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    Re: Munroe Egret NJ Craigslist $3900, offers

    better photos here, maybe older photos:

    https://boatnation.com/list/profile/boats-sale-used-new/classic-wooden-and-fiberglass-boats/1984-30-commodore-ralph-munroe-egret-8900/
    ...
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    Re: Making a new drain plug

    Question:
    What is the diameter of the threading? Kinda hard to see in that photo..

    Answer:
    3/4-14 national Pipe thread. Fit my crestliner 1976 admiral.


    By Chad on September 14, 2020
  41. Re: 1950 Hercules Carburetor/flame arrestor lifting gas

    while diagnosing or adjusting the carburetor/ignition systems i like to run from an auxiliary gravity tank with fresh fuel and clean filter.
    that way all other possible fuel system issues upstream...
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    Re: Mast hoop question?

    this is one of the traditional ways, a clipping from one of the gaff rig books.. John Leather or Tom Cunliffe...
    ...
  43. Re: Guidance for a very bad idea....enlarging pram design

    how about Doug Hylan's 15'9" Ben Garvey ?


    https://smallboatsmonthly.com/article/2007-the-ben-garveys/
    https://www.dhylanboats.com/new_construction/14ft-ben-garvey/
    ...
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    Re: Extremely overheated Kubota Diesel

    if the rings were bad or the cylinder walls were scored, maybe a few squirts of oil down each cylinder would help it seal better for a quick start
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    Re: Shellback Sailing Rig

    your boat looks like a traditional heavily built rivetted lapstrake boat

    Shellbacks and Nutshells are usually lighter glued lapstrake plywood with little internal framing, i think
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    Re: Older Nutshell Pram

    i have one and it's a great boat..
    rowing will be fine
    but sailing the 7' nutshell might be pretty cramped with three people trying to stay out of the boom's way, i think
    unless they are verry...
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    Re: Center/daggerboard length

    what happens when you raise the board 4" in the slot while sailing on a given tack ?
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    Re: Seabird Yawl - Cali $2500

    i thought i'd relink some of the photos,
    since they're missing from the old posts..
    i love the old one.. looks straight out of Harry Pidgeon's book !
    ...
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    Re: Lapstrake Sailing Dink, Sag Harbor, NY

    sure does look nice...

    the rudder and tiller assembly are not shown in the original ad... i wonder if that's currently missing
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    Re: strut straightening

    yes,
    my brother just removed his strut and had it repaired at a local propeller shop
    so maybe ask around there
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