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Kaa
06-18-2009, 02:11 PM
Since Tyler has a habit of deleting his threads, I decided to make sure this particular one gets saved.

Sixty days is not far away, it's mid-August. Let's check how these predictions pan out...


Time for Tyler to say times they be getting interesting.

I think we will see the final crash of the bond markets soon as all indications are heading in that direction.

Tidal waves of massive unemployment, Corporate and personal bankruptcy will rise coupled with a complete and total credit freeze.

As this occurs the distractions of Iran or NK more than likely will escalate maybe to limited armed conflict and/or pandemics of one form or another will be the impetus for troops to be on the streets.
Maybe Georgia and the Black sea but I doubt it.
Yeah, the health issue is a distraction too.

Massive clampdowns of the internet in the form of disruption (cyber attack) or outright censorship to save us all will be seen. I thought maybe the Hate speech issue but I really don't see it playing except for only the most brainwashed. The false flag shooting results are not going as planned.

Dissent will be come terrorism in our daily speech and the roundups will begin as a preventive measure.

Food shortages will come to materialize and the costs of whats available will climb dramatically.

I figure most of this will heat up around the time of planned National level exercise near the end of July. I don't see any delay in the works as its all centered around the collapse of the dollar.
Don't forget lots of foreign troops are included in this one in their own press releases.

All this means that if you can go sailing now. That's my plan and I am sticking to it.

PS. have a nice day.:)

Kaa

Joe (SoCal)
06-18-2009, 02:23 PM
Good job Kaa

Brian Palmer
06-18-2009, 02:25 PM
I'll be in Canada on a fishing trip with my family. With any luck, they'll close the border and I can become a resident.;)

I just went to the Dr. this morning to have them check out a suspicious spot on my neck. 15 min office visit = $152. Lucky I have insurance, so my co-pay was only $10. Can't wait to see what the cost is for them to slice it off in a couple weeks!

Brian

JimD
06-18-2009, 02:35 PM
I'll be in Canada on a fishing trip with my family. With any luck, they'll close the border and I can become a resident.;)

Brian

You're welcome to stay but if you get home sick you can probably sneak into Alaska. The climate is cold but the governor is hot.

johnw
06-18-2009, 02:35 PM
By the way, since he mentioned preventative detention, I thought you might like to see this poll result:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_MnYI3_FRbbQ/SjpGBD4wNoI/AAAAAAAAB7g/Np0bjW-x51U/s1600/nyt.png

Looks like most people agree with you, Kaa.

Chris Coose
06-18-2009, 02:36 PM
Announcement:
The Welfare Fleet Cruise (scheduled in about 60 days) shall ignore this forecast.
A weather forecast for 60 days from now would be far more dependable.

Uncle Duke
06-18-2009, 02:41 PM
Don't forget lots of foreign troops are included
Is that the same "masses of foreign troops" who were pouring into Ft. Drum last October? Where has the time gone?:D


We will see limited martial law here. the city's will become prisons for all but the most connected and movement across state lines will be tightly controlled.http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=87154

Keith Wilson
06-18-2009, 03:07 PM
Rarely have I run into anyone who is so happy about what he believes is impending disaster. Poor fellow; just think how sad he'll be when it doesn't happen, and ordinary life continues.

johnw
06-18-2009, 03:10 PM
He'll just reschedule.

Big Woody
06-18-2009, 07:01 PM
I thought you might like to see this poll result...

I guess their was not a choice to Line 'em all up and shoot 'em. :D


My parents often told me about how many people predicted the end of the world as we know it back when they were little. My mom told me that her Adventist teacher took the whole class outside to watch Jesus return, and then cried and took them back inside after it didn't happen. This has been going on for a long time. Doesn't Tyler know that the world ends in 2012? ;)

Big Woody
06-18-2009, 07:16 PM
http://www.preservedwords.com/images/history.gif

According to the chart we are now living in the millennial kingdom age. Tyler was too late to warn us and we missed the rapture, but apparently he missed it too, so maybe that's why he seems upset.

Ted Hoppe
06-18-2009, 08:25 PM
Uncertainty Reigns in a code orange world. We know one thing for certain: Nothing is certain. Consider Mark Twain’s admonition: “Worry is interest paid in advance on trouble that never happens.” It seems a waste to worry about something that likely will not happen, and if it does happen, I have only a minimal chance of changing the outcome. "

The Bigfella
06-18-2009, 09:37 PM
Actually guys, if 60 days is mid August (Sunday 16th, to be precise) he's already pushed his forecast back by 2 weeks. We called him on his original 100 day prediction and it was, at that stage 2nd August as I recall it. That post will obviously be gone.. but we remember.

The Bigfella
06-18-2009, 09:40 PM
Yep - I just checked. He (or "they") have got rid of the previous evidence.

2nd August it is though guys.

Glen Longino
06-18-2009, 09:52 PM
Will this doom appear all at once in August in a Big Bang of doom, or can we expect a taste of doom sooner, like early July?
Personally, I prefer my doom in timely increments, if you please.

johnw
06-19-2009, 07:17 PM
Will this doom appear all at once in August in a Big Bang of doom, or can we expect a taste of doom sooner, like early July?
Personally, I prefer my doom in timely increments, if you please.
Death on the installment plan?

StevenBauer
06-19-2009, 09:19 PM
Since Tyler has a habit of deleting his threads, I decided to make sure this particular one gets saved.



He told me today that he isn't the one deleting them.

Steven

The Bigfella
06-20-2009, 04:10 AM
He told me today that he isn't the one deleting them.

Steven

He posted a thread yesterday discussing one he'd pulled:confused:

Tylerdurden
06-20-2009, 09:26 AM
He posted a thread yesterday discussing one he'd pulled:confused:

One and I posted to say that. My posts have been purged daily for the past week or so. As its beyond my control after testing to see if it was so I have come to understand its the best way for one to be censored here. At first I was under the impression that it was the result of spiking by the wrecking crew but know I know its more than that. I can completely understand that my enemy's or douchebags as I like to call them will alter my words or spread false perceptions as in a Carl Rove/Fox news style I also understand that is clear to the reader also. I think the wrecking crew understands that also so this new tactic of wiping threads almost daily is now in vouge.

Syed
06-20-2009, 10:18 AM
Since Tyler has a habit of deleting his threads, I decided to make sure this particular one gets saved.

Sixty days is not far away, it's mid-August. Let's check how these predictions pan out...



Kaa

Don't you think, the authenticity of this record can be challenged at a later stage ? ;)

Captain Blight
06-20-2009, 10:28 AM
Death on the installment plan?
That would be trying to argue with either Sam or LJB. Murder, in the thousandth degree.

Ross M
06-20-2009, 11:20 AM
Don't you think, the authenticity of this record can be challenged at a later stage ? ;)

Excellent point, Syed. Non-repudiation is quite difficult to achieve in this medium. A skewed screen shot (bitmap) might be fairly difficult to alter imperceptibly, but the authenticity of the first instance remains questionable (ref. post 19).

Fortunately, it is just an internet forum. Dutch Lives! :D

Ross

bruceS
06-20-2009, 12:09 PM
I will only comment on the first two sentences of Tyler's post:


I think we will see the final crash of the bond markets soon as all indications are heading in that direction.

Tidal waves of massive unemployment, Corporate and personal bankruptcy will rise coupled with a complete and total credit freeze.

Timing is always a difficult matter. Stock markets peaked in October 2007. Most didn't notice a top was in until the free fall started last fall.

http://www.brine.ca/images/leyland/market2.png

We are certainly in the timing window for the resumption of a market debacle -- Interestingly there is a pattern to stock market secondary peaks (the post crash rally high). In both the crash of 1873 and 1929, the secondary high arrived 20-months after the stock market peak. Another Post-Euphoria model, based on what followed gold in 1980 and the Nikkei in 1989 plots the resumption of contraction some 18 or 19 months from the blow out high. Those numbers take us to where we are today -- May/June 2009.

So it's delayed from previous models, but what's a few days between friends? :-)

It's very difficult to get precise when the potential unwind is so large.

http://www.brine.ca/images/leyland/market.png

Lots of credit still to be unwound. Notice how the percent accelerates as GDP shrinks (1929 stock market peak to 1933).

http://www.brine.ca/images/leyland/boom.png

With the likely unwinding from these:

http://www.safehaven.com/images/tedbit/13682_f.png

End of the world? NO!

Difficult times ahead? YES!

johnw
06-22-2009, 02:25 PM
But Bruce, it's so much more dramatic to predict End Times than a difficult period of adjustment.

Bruce Hooke
06-22-2009, 02:55 PM
Let's keep in mind that the bond market crashing is just the first and probably least unlikely of Tyler's predictions (aside from food shortages, but food shortages already exist in various places in the world so predicting such is hardly rocket science). I can believe the bond markets might actually take a major downturn. What I find highly unlikely are the other things he predicts will follow such a downturn:

Troops on the streets
A massive clampdown on the Internet
Roundups for preventive detention
etc.

johnw
06-22-2009, 03:11 PM
One and I posted to say that. My posts have been purged daily for the past week or so. As its beyond my control after testing to see if it was so I have come to understand its the best way for one to be censored here. At first I was under the impression that it was the result of spiking by the wrecking crew but know I know its more than that. I can completely understand that my enemy's or douchebags as I like to call them will alter my words or spread false perceptions as in a Carl Rove/Fox news style I also understand that is clear to the reader also. I think the wrecking crew understands that also so this new tactic of wiping threads almost daily is now in vouge.
Man up and take responsibility for your own actions. Post stuff that doesn't deserve deletion, and it won't be deleted.

Or, you could go all paranoid and blame everyone but yourself. That would be true to form.

Keith Wilson
06-22-2009, 03:22 PM
What you have to understand is that Mark is posting his fantasies of what he wishes would happen. Look at his C&P posts - he thinks democracy is a sham, that the news is lies, that our freedom is a illusion, and that the world is really run by shadowy elites who keep the rest of us in semi-contented slavery. He wants this to end; who wouldn't? But the only way it will end is if the "sheeple" wake up, which they won't do unless the illusion is broken, which won't happen without some drastic precipitating event. Hence the continual predictions of disaster; it's what's he's hoping and praying for.

Tylerdurden
06-22-2009, 03:36 PM
What you have to understand is that Mark is posting his fantasy of what he wishes would happen. Look at his C&P posts - he thinks democracy is a sham, that the news is lies, that our freedom is a illusion, and that the world is really run by shadowy elites who keep the rest of us in semi-contented slavery. He wants this to end; who wouldn't? But the only way it will end is if the "sheeple" wake up, which they won't do unless the illusion is broken, which won't happen without some drastic precipitating event. Hence the continual predictions of disaster; it's what's he's hoping and praying for.

How in the hell would any of you know what I am hoping for?
Maybe because I have written it several times but it seems the terminally dense still can't read. I want my children and all the rest to have liberty. Is that so hard for you to understand?
Any idiot over forty can figure out we have far less liberty than when we were kids.
I want them to have what the founders envisioned, not the corporate fascist state we have now.
It seems to me of those I meet the ones who don't understand have IQ's in the 40 range and the rest who don't want to understand that have entirely selfish reasons for keeping things the way they are. As far as predictions go it doesn't take a rocket scientist to do the math and know right now every family in the US is on the hook for 890k. That's just to cover the debt, Not the interest. So in other words we have created a system we can never pay down no matter how much pie in the sky wishing we do.
It easy for you all sitting on your fat asses to pass on those figures because you will be dead before it comes due. I just hope your kids wise up as most of them already have. If I was one of you clowns saying its all good I would be afraid to sleep at night once you kids figure out what you have done with their futures.

What goes around comes around, I just have enough common sense to know that.

pcford
06-22-2009, 03:42 PM
How in the hell would any of you know what I am hoping for?
Maybe because I have written it several times but it seems the terminally dense still can't read. .....
It seems to me of those I meet the ones who don't understand have IQ's in the 40 range

A profound and articulate presentation.

johnw
06-22-2009, 04:34 PM
A profound and articulate presentation.
And such a great way to persuade those who don't already agree.

Dave Wright
06-22-2009, 04:53 PM
TD wrote: "Maybe because I have written it several times but it seems the terminally dense still can't read..... "

In one of your rare topside posts didn't you write that you were "a lardass with bad knees?" If that's the case, have you started a regimen of diet and exercise? Are you getting those knees fixed up? Because if not, you're terminally dense, and when your catastrophies come, a physical specimen like you will be quickly eliminated.

pcford
06-22-2009, 04:59 PM
And such a great way to persuade those who don't already agree.


Are there those that agree?

johnw
06-22-2009, 05:12 PM
TD wrote: "Maybe because I have written it several times but it seems the terminally dense still can't read..... "

In one of your rare topside posts didn't you write that you were "a lardass with bad knees?" If that's the case, have you started a regimen of diet and exercise? Are you getting those knees fixed up? Because if not, you're terminally dense, and when your catastrophies come, a physical specimen like you will be quickly eliminated.

Or eaten.

SMARTINSEN
06-22-2009, 05:38 PM
As far as predictions go it doesn't take a rocket scientist to do the math and know right now every family in the US is on the hook for 890k. That's just to cover the debt, Not the interest.


Where do you get this bull****?

I estimate your figure as $250.000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S.

You are off by a factor of 10.

johnw
06-22-2009, 06:28 PM
3.56.

Ross M
06-22-2009, 07:11 PM
That's one enormous error :D

The Bigfella
06-22-2009, 07:46 PM
That's one enormous error :D

Nah - well within his normal range.

Uncle Duke
07-27-2009, 09:46 AM
From the original text quoted in post #1:

I figure most of this will heat up around the time of planned National level exercise near the end of July. I don't see any delay in the works as its all centered around the collapse of the dollar.

Well, it's near the end of July. How are we doing?

Popeye
07-27-2009, 09:59 AM
still in all , one trillion dollars is a staggering amount of money

your kids kids kids will be talking about it

TomF
07-27-2009, 10:07 AM
Hmmm... I don't see any signs of Armegeddon... no massive social unrest ...

Did I miss it? :)Well, my brother's coming for a visit in mid-late August. Watch this space! :D

David G
07-27-2009, 10:14 AM
Hmmm... I don't see any signs of Armegeddon... no massive social unrest, total collapse of the worldwide economy, etc.

Did I miss it? :)


Norman - hasn't happened yet. But my sense is that we are at a vulnerable spot. The US is a large economy with a lot of inertia. I'd guess momentum will carry us through, but there are an increasing number of non-fringe folks who are talking about the Outside Possibility of a global economic collapse - if we don't tread carefully, as well as try to forestall any potential external shocks.

Popeye - Maybe.

Popeye
07-27-2009, 10:37 AM
- Maybe.

quote me the national debt forecast again , it was on a news blurb last night , i can't recall it perfectly , but something to the effect of the debt will rise to 23 (?) trillion dollars by 2017 (?) , more than your entire economic output

so if your household debt goes beyond all your income , what becomes of your household ?

Kaa
07-27-2009, 10:42 AM
so if your household debt goes beyond all your income , what becomes of your household ?

Ask Japan. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 2.

Kaa

Popeye
07-27-2009, 10:51 AM
Ask Japan. Their debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 2.their stock market has been flat for over a decade and you can get a mortgage for a 200 sq feet shanty your grand kids can amortize for ya

they have no military spending , it is illegal

mark is right , start saving up your turnip seeds

L.W. Baxter
07-27-2009, 11:05 AM
What's the statistic on the "stimulus" package, that only 11% will be spent by years end? I haven't been very concerned myself with budget predictions or who is getting what stimulus. The important thing is public perception, a regaining of confidence in leadership and our economic system. We're getting that from the Obama administration. Indicators are up. Much of what has been planned for the future may be shelved as circumstances change; I'd say that has been the plan all along. Talking about the level of debt in 2017 based on spending and revenue projections from today is pure fantasy. "Mark is right"??? LMAO.

Kaa
07-27-2009, 11:24 AM
Excellent point. The GOP, which criticizes Obama for the size of the stimulus plan, also criticize him for the fact that so little of it has been spent.

You can't have it both ways.

You most certainly can.

Stimulus needs to be applied now, not next year or the year after that. Whatever gets spend "later" is not stimulus at all -- just your regular pork-barrel orgy....

Kaa

L.W. Baxter
07-27-2009, 11:25 AM
...If it ends up that we climb slowly out of this recession, without having spent more than a small amount of that which was budgeted, I'd call that a big win for Obama...


If it means I get to go back to full-time employment, I'd call it a big win for me!

It would be a big loss for the WBF though, cuz y'all wouldn't get to read my wisdom here on a Monday morning.;):D

Kaa
07-27-2009, 11:43 AM
there may be substantial impetus to NOT spend...

:eek: LOL. Don't hold your breath :-)

Kaa

L.W. Baxter
07-27-2009, 12:04 PM
You most certainly can.

Stimulus needs to be applied now, not next year or the year after that. Whatever gets spend "later" is not stimulus at all -- just your regular pork-barrel orgy....

Kaa

So you think that stimulus spending is really necessary for a recovery?

The boom and bust of market and real estate values was psychological in nature. The stimulus is psychological, too. Cautious optimism is exactly the needed result. I don't particularly care for the structure of the stimulus package, but the perception of an active government with competent leadership is having an undeniable effect on the outlook of Americans and other players in the global economy. Recovery has to come from people doing business in a stable environment, not from government spending.

L.W. Baxter
07-27-2009, 12:08 PM
I bet Obama has his own reservations about the specifics of the stimulus package. But he knew that a large gesture done quickly was what was needed. Getting bogged down trying to form the stimulus in the best possible way would have delayed the action, created more uncertainty, and possibly ruined us. Bravo, I say. Let's get through Christmas, sort out the details next year.

Kaa
07-27-2009, 12:09 PM
So you think that stimulus spending is really necessary for a recovery?

I think it's a trade-off. You get a bit more of a recovery a bit faster, but you pay for it later.

That's in theory, of course. In practice, there was major political pressure to produce some "stimulus" and the Dems used it as a pretext to push through their favorite projects.


The boom and bust of market and real estate values was psychological in nature. The stimulus is psychological, too. Cautious optimism is exactly the needed result. I don't particularly care for the structure of the stimulus package, but the perception of an active government with competent leadership is having an undeniable effect on the outlook of Americans and other players in the global economy. Recovery has to come from people doing business in a stable environment, not from government spending.

Well, it's complicated :D

But keep in mind that you've got to pay the piper. That rapidly growing mountain of debt has its own economic effects and few of them are positive.

Kaa

JimD
07-27-2009, 12:55 PM
Haven't read the whole thread, but...creating money isn't debt. Its inflationary, which is just what you need right about now. Inflation destroys debt. But about Tyler's forecast; how come its July 27 and there's still no martial law? I just don't get it.

L.W. Baxter
07-27-2009, 01:01 PM
I think it's a trade-off. You get a bit more of a recovery a bit faster, but you pay for it later.

That's in theory, of course. In practice, there was major political pressure to produce some "stimulus" and the Dems used it as a pretext to push through their favorite projects.



Well, it's complicated :D

But keep in mind that you've got to pay the piper. That rapidly growing mountain of debt has its own economic effects and few of them are positive.

Kaa

Yes, the question is, will the debt become "real" or only projected? How many of the pet programs will see full fruition? What will tax revenues be next year, and the one after that?

My theory on the Obama administration and the stimulus:

Obama et al knew that the perception of quick, dramatic action was the most important thing for halting the slide towards economic depression. The best way to get it done was to allow the legislative majority to write the bill without much pressure from the executive to show restraint or get it "right". Thus the comments about 700 billion being "just a number" picked out of thin air. It was actually important that the stimulus not be instantaneous, as the government is a little short on cash. The whole thing was brilliantly done. Pure pragmatism, not a liberal wet dream.

I am not convinced that Obama has real intention of seeing the items in the bill through to completion. Even if it happens, it won't be catastrophic, as long as the U.S. economy returns to full function with some growth. We are talking about a potential 15 trillion dollar economy headed towards 20. But without the quick, decisive, psychological stimulus, we might have seen a 12 trillion dollar economy headed towards 8, in short order.

paladin
07-27-2009, 04:59 PM
I think that if you take a very close look at the Obama Stimulous package, the money that was handed out was stolen.....My SIL and cousins received letters from the Obama administration saying that there would be no cost of living increase this coming year...so what it means is that the cost of living increase would have cost more, so by handing out stimulus checks in advance and stopping the cost of living increase, the administration actually saves money and spreads it thinner to everyone rather than where it would have gone in the first place. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

David G
07-27-2009, 08:13 PM
Here's an article in the current Economist that expresses what I've been saying in more detail:

Rebalancing global growth
A long way to go

Jul 23rd 2009
From The Economist print edition
The global recession is coming to an end, but the ingredients of a lasting recovery are still missing


http://media.economist.com/images/20090725/CLD806.gif
WITH luck, the global slump has reached its trough. Asia’s economies are looking rosier, buoyed by a spectacular rebound in China, where output grew at an annualised rate of some 16% between April and June. Even in America and the euro area, GDP is likely to stop shrinking during the summer. Trade, having fallen precipitately, is levelling off (see article (http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14082950)). And, as firms rebuild their stocks, global growth over the next few months could be surprisingly robust.
That is a welcome prospect. But it is not the all-clear. For this “recovery” has fragile foundations. The boost from restocking will be temporary. And a big source of demand—government stimulus—is unsustainable. Across the globe governments have, rightly, stepped in to counter the economic slump. In America an increase of 12 percentage points in the budget deficit has cushioned the slump in private spending. Around 75% of China’s growth this year will be state-directed, either through public spending or officially induced lending.

Governments can prop up economies temporarily, but rising budget deficits are not a route to sustainable growth. Eventually burgeoning debt will limit the room for fiscal manoeuvre, and politicians may balk at renewed stimulus long before then. Worries about the budget deficit are already weighing on political debate in Washington (see article (http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14085725)). A solid global recovery demands healthy and balanced growth in private demand. Unfortunately, that still seems far off.
Before the financial crash, global demand was horribly skewed. It was far too reliant on spending from increasingly indebted American consumers: witness the country’s gaping current-account deficit, which reached almost 6% of GDP in 2006. The crisis—particularly the credit crunch and the destruction of more than $13 trillion of household wealth—has wrecked the American shopping machine and changed the nature of the world’s imbalances. As consumer spending has slumped, the external imbalances have shrivelled. America’s current-account deficit this year is likely to be less than 3% of GDP. On the other side of the ledger, China’s surplus is on course to fall by half from its 2007 peak, of 11% of GDP, by 2010. The surpluses of both Germany and Japan are shrinking fast.
Laying out the to-do list

Rebalancing via recession is hardly to be recommended. Worse, even as imbalances between countries have unwound, those within them have worsened, as governments have stepped in. Chinese and German consumers are not spending more; the Chinese and German governments are. The task is to right these internal imbalances without recreating the external ones. The solution is well known: consumers in China and other emerging economies, and in thrifty rich countries like Germany, must become bigger engines of demand, while the former bubble economies, such as America, must continue the shift towards saving and exports.
How hard will this be? We will examine the task in a series of articles on the world’s four biggest economies, beginning this week with America’s (see article (http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14098372)). The detailed to-do list differs from one country to the next, but three broad requirements stand out: a change of mindset for many policymakers; greater macroeconomic co-ordination than hitherto; and bolder microeconomic reforms.
The shift in mindset is most necessary in surplus economies. Too many German leaders seem to take the economy’s export orientation as immutable. Few even grasp the need to nudge it towards domestic spending. China’s authorities want to shift towards consumption, but are reluctant to pull the obvious lever: allowing the yuan to strengthen faster.
Macroeconomic co-ordination will be necessary, especially to ensure that the fiscal tightening which must follow the stimulus does not strangle the recovery. While central bankers are laying out their exit strategies from monetary looseness in detail, few finance ministers have done anything similar on the fiscal side. In the big economies they claim they will cut their deficits substantially in 2011, but there are few details, even on the appropriate mix of tax reforms and spending cuts.
The hardest part, however, will be the microeconomic reforms required to smooth the macroeconomic adjustments. China’s leaders need to boost household income (for instance by encouraging more labour-intensive growth and forcing state enterprises to pay fatter dividends) as well as improve health-care and pension provision so that people feel less need to save. Japan and Germany both have to encourage investment in services, by freeing markets from health care to education. America must counter the rigidities that have arisen after its asset bust. Millions of people with negative equity in their homes, for instance, cannot move to get a new job.
The to-do list is a long one, the risk of missteps is high, and it will take years to complete. That is why the world economy is not yet out of the woods.

In other words... some hopeful signs, but still fragile.

Kaa
08-21-2009, 11:31 PM
Up, up to the top :-)

Yo, Mark, how are your predictions -- lovingly preserved in the first post of this thread -- working out? :D

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-22-2009, 05:15 AM
Up, up to the top :-)

Yo, Mark, how are your predictions -- lovingly preserved in the first post of this thread -- working out? :D

Kaa

Great, I am a couple of weeks off but it has begun. Should get real interesting now.

Milo Christensen
08-22-2009, 08:59 AM
Mark has done something I would have bet good money was impossible. He has unified the bilge rats on both sides of the political spectrum. Congratulations, Mark, you've brought the rest of us all together in common accord.

The Bigfella
08-22-2009, 09:36 AM
Great, I am a couple of weeks off but it has begun. Should get real interesting now.


Same crap, another year.

Kaa
08-22-2009, 02:40 PM
Great, I am a couple of weeks off but it has begun. Should get real interesting now.

Woo, couple of weeks? The original forecast was for mid-August, so if you're off by a couple of weeks, your forecast (see post #1) is now for September 1, right?

That's not far off :-) We'll see how that works :D

Kaa

Bruce Hooke
08-22-2009, 07:40 PM
Woo, couple of weeks? The original forecast was for mid-August, so if you're off by a couple of weeks, your forecast (see post #1) is now for September 1, right?

That's not far off :-) We'll see how that works :D

Kaa

Of course in two weeks he could say that it is still a couple of weeks in the future...

Tylerdurden
08-22-2009, 07:53 PM
I guess none of you noticed the sale of treasury's?

Explain how its normal for the treasury to put them up for sale and half get bought by the Federal Reserve. Two dinks and a wheelbarrow crossing the street comes to mind. Print it send it over and bring it back. Yeah, that's how its supposed to work.:rolleyes:

Lets not mention the failure of the two sales before this sleight of hand occurred.

I guess Tuesday if my calender is correct, we should know if the FDIC is bankrupt something like 18 billion in reserve in June but over 70 Billion in failures so far since. 80 something banks.

Maybe its time for the Printers to load up the wheel barrow again.

We can get into Derivatives too if you like but I am having to much fun waiting for you guys to tell me everything is cool with Bonds.

Doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to know we are f**cked.
Buh Bye Dollar, Nice knowing you and vulture capitalism.
The king is dead, now off with their heads.:)

Captain Blight
08-22-2009, 07:57 PM
Someone pass the popcorn. This is gonna be good.

Tylerdurden
08-22-2009, 08:01 PM
I live on a street filled with active-duty and retired cops.

I sure hope I have time to get my Tomatoes in before they revolt.

I thought you lived on a street filled with highly decorated combat clerk typists and supply sergeants?:rolleyes:

The Bigfella
08-22-2009, 08:06 PM
Gee. that's funny, the daily bond diary from the publishing company I used to run is telling it different. So far their record is about 100% better than the gloomster's.

Here's a free clip from Friday's... I'm happy to provide an occasional snapshot if you want to save the $1,750 pa subscription.....



US Stocks made further gains on Thursday as upbeat economic data and news that AIG would repay government funds encouraged investors.

The S&P500 index traded up 1.10 per cent to 1,007 while the Dow was up 0.76 per cent for the session.

Stocks in insurer AIG rallied over 20 per cent after its CEO said in an interview that it believes it will be able to repay the emergency government loan it received at the height of the crisis, and will ultimately provide returns for its shareholders.

In addition to the AIG news and a bounce in Chinese stocks (Shanghai up 4.3 per cent), economic data boosted US equities markets.

The Phily Fed manufacturing index rose unexpectedly in August, turning positive for the first time in over a year, while the leading economic indicators reading rose for the sixth consecutive month.

Markets however appeared to ignore weak jobs claims data, with a higher than expected 576,000 filing for benefits.

Treasury bonds also traded higher on Thursday after the government said it will auction almost US$110bn of debt, less than feared. The UST 10 yr yield fell 2bps to 3.43 per cent.

For the first time this week, credit joined the market rally. The CDX index traded about 3bps lower at 121 although dealers said volumes were thin.

US corporate bond markets saw three new offers from American Express (US$1.5bn 5yr, UST+275), Yum Brands and News America.
European credit indices also tightened. The Markit iTraxx traded in 4bps to 97 while the Crossover narrowed 17bps to 627.

European primary markets remain inactive with only one new issue offered, a €500m 5yr issue from Deutsche Postbank.


I left out the rest, which is Oz focused....

Kaa
08-22-2009, 09:46 PM
Doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to know we are f**cked.
Buh Bye Dollar, Nice knowing you and vulture capitalism.
The king is dead, now off with their heads.:)

The date, Tyler, the date.

You still think all that you have promised in post #1 will come true on September 1?

Don't forget the "tidal waves of unemployment", armed conflict with Iran or North Korea, massive clampdowns on the internet, and oh yeah, food shortages (Donn! Tell your tomatoes to ripen faster! :D). Total collapse of the dollar and the bond markets is de rigeur, of course.

Want to add anything, maybe? :D

Kaa

The Bigfella
08-22-2009, 10:14 PM
Damn it all. My daughter just planted tomatoes yesterday.

MiddleAgesMan
08-22-2009, 11:23 PM
Great, I am a couple of weeks off but it has begun. Should get real interesting now.

http://www.hsletter.com/HSLnewslet.htm

How long have you been a subscriber to the HSL newsletter, Mark?

That's an old issue that sounds suspiciously familiar, ya think?

BTW--HSL is the source of the recent dire warning that US embassies around the world are buying huge amounts of foreign currencies with huge amounts of dollars delivered in the dead of night.

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 12:10 AM
http://www.hsletter.com/HSLnewslet.htm

How long have you been a subscriber to the HSL newsletter, Mark?

That's an old issue that sounds suspiciously familiar, ya think?

BTW--HSL is the source of the recent dire warning that US embassies around the world are buying huge amounts of foreign currencies with huge amounts of dollars delivered in the dead of night.

Surely not? Mark isn't the sort of gullible guy who would be sucked in by those morons who prey on the insecurities of the weak is he?

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 07:10 AM
Yes no mention of facts.....

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c350/mudhutwarrior/lookingatdrawing_lg.png

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 07:24 AM
What's the subscription cost Mark?

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 07:26 AM
What's the subscription cost Mark?


Don't know, never needed Enzyte. How much do you pay?

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 07:28 AM
Same old, same old....

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 07:33 AM
Ahh... the old pcford response just popped up. He was really looking forward to August 19....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tylerdurden
Let me put this down for prosperity,

I think within the next 100 days the ones who feel the need to attack me will be embarrassed to come here and act like nothing has happened. I am relatively sure of this so that's why I am writing this now.

Save this as we will see the final turn in the economy and the final signs of martial law and gun confiscations will more likely be exposed by then. If not at the minimum most of the arguments I get will be quieted in a big way.

I still doubt the WBF will be here beyond the end of the year.


pcford:

Best Bilgenews ever! Or at least since you were banned for physically threatening someone who did not believe your garbage.

Tell you what Tyler Dude, if the gun confiscations begin in 100 days...that'll be Aug. 19, 2009 (check me if I am wrong), I will bow down and admit of your superior wisdom.

If on the other hand, gun confiscations do not begin across the nation, you will no longer visit your paranoid delusions on this venue. That will effectively leave the WBF free of you since you rarely, if ever, post anywhere else. And you will publicly destroy your tinfoil hat before witnesses approved by a committee chosen by the Elders of the Bilge.

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 07:34 AM
I don't see but one who should be embarrassed

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 11:34 AM
I don't see but one who should be embarrassed


I know, I have seen pictures.:D

Rick-Mi
08-23-2009, 12:10 PM
Hey Mark, good to see you again....

Don't pay any attention to the naysayers. There isn't a single person on this forum who even remotely can compare with your financial prediction last year. Anyone with two nickles to rub together would have benefited greatly from taking your advise then. The only person who can even be mentioned in the same sentence is Andrew who provided some dynamite forecasting of the economy due to a drastic fall off in shipping.

It's easy to take pot shots at someone who sticks their neck out, which is why so few people step up to the plate here or in real life.

I don't share your timing of predictions when it comes to economic collapse, police state, food shortages or other societal melee. It's my opinion that the current increasing water temperature isn't high enough to turn it up to the boiling point when it comes to the masses of frogs in America. The heat has been rising, but still has a ways to go before the full blown agenda is foist on the sheep. However, when it comes to the fiscal condition of our nation, I'm surprised more people don't have alarm bells going off in their heads. The massive growth of government combined with declining fundamentals in our economy are horrendous. We ARE going to pay the piper for our national foolishness, the only question is when....


.

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 12:23 PM
Thanks, I know what you are saying but I think this will be exponential in the way it goes down. Once the truth of the markets comes back to roost things will go quick. Maybe it will take a year, maybe six months but it will come as all the indicators are there. I think only the fools will still be believers by October of this year. God knows we have enough of them here.:rolleyes:

I was watching the talking heads on finacials the other day and two were plugging the great numbers of the baltic dry index. Just for giggles I went an looked into it. It was an outright lie designed for idiots like the ones above. When one looks at those numbers it tells an alarming warning quite the opposite to what the talking heads say. The dead cat bounce was the final fleecing of a brainwashed public who actually think things can be to big to fail. What kind of moron actually believes that?
Its fortunate that the majority in this country now understand the emperor has no clothes and are looking for themselves.
I mean these same taking heads were saying all is good right up to the collapse last year and still several morons here still believe.

I know where they want to be......http://www.geena-davis.net/images/Fantasy_Island.jpg

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 01:36 PM
If you keep walking the date back, Mark, you might eventually be right... some day. However, I don't recall that you hedged the date of Armegeddon back when you first predicted it.

So, now it's October? :)

Funny thing is you guys have some kind of Idea that I care what you think, especially you megaphony.

My dates are fine to reasoned individuals as every one knows we are not on fantasy island like you guys. Nothing happens overnight and the start has already begun. Say what you will, like as you did last year. That's why most of you really have no credibility at all though you would like to think so. What I have said prior did come to pass even if you clowns keep looking for dates like I am Jean Dixon.
The more time passes the more you will all become to be known as a-holes of a tired and long morally dead generation of fake intellectuals.
What your children will think of you should be more of a concern than my dates. It doesn't matter though as raping your childrens future for the sake of your comfort is your legacy.

Kaa
08-23-2009, 07:31 PM
Maybe it will take a year, maybe six months...

Hey, hey, hey! What six months? What year?

You solemnly promised us the end of the world by mid-August and were willing to concede that you might be a couple of weeks off, given that the middle of August has passed already.

You were very sure about it, too. Go look at the first post of this thread.

So, do tell, did you change your mind?

Kaa

Glen Longino
08-23-2009, 07:40 PM
Hey, hey, hey! What six months? What year?

You solemnly promised us the end of the world by mid-August and was willing to concede that you might be a couple of weeks off, given that the middle of August has passed already.

You were very sure about it, too. Go look at the first post of this thread.

So, do tell, did you change your mind?

Kaa

"reasoned individuals"

Kaa, Mark was talking to "reasoned individuals" when he made those forecasts. They understand the errors in the timeline. That leaves us out I reckon.
He was talking to jbelow and tusti .

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 07:41 PM
Hey, hey, hey! What six months? What year?

You solemnly promised us the end of the world by mid-August and was willing to concede that you might be a couple of weeks off, given that the middle of August has passed already.

You were very sure about it, too. Go look at the first post of this thread.

So, do tell, did you change your mind?

Kaa

Have you lost reading comprehension? First line on the title post.
Bond markets. Everything else follows.
Like in any real world would everything happen in a span of a day or sixty?
I said sixty days to the start, Yes I am late but as you will see not by much.
Is this you pre loss defense? Your starting to sound like Ian.

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 07:47 PM
PS, In my view and I am not alone the bond market has already collapsed only manipulation keeps that from being seen. In hindsight some historian may come across this and show how it actually did begin when I said but that is if anyone cares to disprove a group of no consequence in the grand scheme of things.
I think most of you will be lost to obscurity along with myself.

Kaa
08-23-2009, 07:47 PM
Like in any real world ...

LOL. In any real world out of how many? :D


I said sixty days to the start, Yes I am late but as you will see not by much.

You're actually not late, but rather early :-) And "not by much" is by how much? You said a couple of weeks, that expires in a week or so.

Would you like to change your mind a second time?

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-23-2009, 07:49 PM
LOL. In any real world out of how many? :D



You're actually not late, but rather early :-) And "not by much" is by how much? You said a couple of weeks, that expires in a week or so.

Would you like to change your mind a second time?

Kaa

No need, never did change my mind. Like Doppler shift of a Train whistle timing is actually irrelevant in detail when it hits you.

The Bigfella
08-23-2009, 08:02 PM
Hey Mark, good to see you again....

Don't pay any attention to the naysayers. There isn't a single person on this forum who even remotely can compare with your financial prediction last year. Anyone with two nickles to rub together would have benefited greatly from taking your advise then. The only person who can even be mentioned in the same sentence is Andrew who provided some dynamite forecasting of the economy due to a drastic fall off in shipping.

It's easy to take pot shots at someone who sticks their neck out, which is why so few people step up to the plate here or in real life.

I don't share your timing of predictions when it comes to economic collapse, police state, food shortages or other societal melee. It's my opinion that the current increasing water temperature isn't high enough to turn it up to the boiling point when it comes to the masses of frogs in America. The heat has been rising, but still has a ways to go before the full blown agenda is foist on the sheep. However, when it comes to the fiscal condition of our nation, I'm surprised more people don't have alarm bells going off in their heads. The massive growth of government combined with declining fundamentals in our economy are horrendous. We ARE going to pay the piper for our national foolishness, the only question is when....


.


Maaate.... his "prediction" last year... like 18 months ago was....



How many times do I have to spell it out Ian?
Economic collapse followed by conflict and a major clampdown on free peoples about sums it up.
Everybody else gets it.


That's right .... 18 months ago. He recycles it every year.


As for rubbing two nickels together... my share portfolio is 245.2% last week compared to the value of it at the same time last year. No additional funds in - I just followed the same strategy that I told Mark to follow.

Kaa
08-23-2009, 08:28 PM
No need, never did change my mind.

Really? So when you said "sixty days" that wasn't you? Or it wasn't your mind? Or you're still convinced the economy did crash in mid-August but nobody noticed?


Like Doppler shift of a Train whistle timing is actually irrelevant in detail when it hits you.

LOL. That's such an excellent phrase :D Means nothing, physics is wrong, but pretends something was said...

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 11:53 AM
China aggressively reducing us debt - Sign of things to come (http://thenexteconomy.blogspot.com/2009/08/china-aggressively-reducing-us-debt.html)

Like I said it has started and that's why the fed bought half of the last sale. Smoke and mirrors revolving door.

Kaa
08-24-2009, 12:18 PM
Hey, why worry about bond markets when the Yellowstone supervolcano will erupt? It has started already -- look at all the geysers and hot springs!

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 01:42 PM
Analyst Bove sees 150-200 more U.S. bank failures

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE57M26G20090823?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
Insurers’ Biggest Writedowns May Be Yet to Come: Jonathan Weil

"Look at the asset side of Lincoln National’s balance sheet (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LNC%3AUS), and you’ll see a $10.5 billion item called “deferred acquisition costs (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dac.asp),” without which the company’s shareholder equity of $9.1 billion would disappear. The figure also is larger than the company’s stock-market value, now at $7 billion. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a8itsmbfm9qc

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c350/mudhutwarrior/snp-500-pe-ratio.gif

MiddleAgesMan
08-24-2009, 02:11 PM
PS, In my view and I am not alone the bond market has already collapsed only manipulation keeps that from being seen.

Interesting you would bring that up today, TD.

In today's NYTs there's an article about the guy in charge of treasury auctions. He says he has no trouble finding buyers. In fact, when he needed to auction $32 billion dollars in notes last week he got bids totalling over $110 billion. In other words, some buyers had to go away empty handed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/24/business/economy/24debt.html?ref=global

Dave Wright
08-24-2009, 02:13 PM
PS, In my view and I am not alone the bond market has already collapsed only manipulation keeps that from being seen. In hindsight some historian may come across this and show how it actually did begin when I said but that is if anyone cares to disprove a group of no consequence in the grand scheme of things.
I think most of you will be lost to obscurity along with myself.

Well you have some of this right! You certainly will be lost to obscurity along with all of us.

What I don't understand though, is why a gentleman like you, with such phenomenal prescience would have time for this forum? Surely your great skills have made you incredibly wealthy and you have no need for employment?

Surely your great skills have put you in such a well diversified and protected position that you flit from continent to continent, confident that you and your family are financially and materially secure for the long term?

Yet, despite all of your skillls and achievements beyond our collective imaginations, you have the strong need (and time) to visit this forum thousands of times over, make predictions and then haggle over them like a child, leave like a child, and then return like a child for more haggling.

You know, something doesn't make sense here, and with all due respect, I have to guess that you're probably a woefully unhappy individual without a pot to piss in. I'm sorry for your plight.

Rick-Mi
08-24-2009, 02:34 PM
my share portfolio is 245.2% last week compared to the value of it at the same time last year. No additional funds in - I just followed the same strategy that I told Mark to follow.


That is an extraordinary return on a stock portfolio Bigfella!!!:eek:

Forgive me for missing your predictions and market strategy last year. Whatever it was I want to see what you recommended to Mark that produced rate of return numbers that would make most hedge fund managers drool with envy. I remember Mark accurately forecasting a dramatic stock market decline last year and I remember Andrew's outstanding commentary on the state of international shipping before the financial crisis manifested itself, but I missed your recommendations. Would you please use the search function and post them up? I'm very interested in what you had to say in advance of the decline and how you made 245.2% in THE most tumultuous financial market of our lifetimes.

With a record like that, I'm also very interesting in what you have to say about the rest of 2009. Where should the smart money be for the balance of this year?


.

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 02:53 PM
Interesting you would bring that up today, TD.

In today's NYTs there's an article about the guy in charge of treasury auctions. He says he has no trouble finding buyers. In fact, when he needed to auction $32 billion dollars in notes last week he got bids totalling over $110 billion. In other words, some buyers had to go away empty handed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/24/business/economy/24debt.html?ref=global

Its a lie...


The Fed Buys Last Week's Treasury Notes


In concert with the claims I made in the prior Martenson Insider post, The Fed bought $7 billion in Treasuries today (http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig) and even more yesterday.
This is at the upper end of their recent range of already exceptional purchasing activity.
If things are so rosy that every single dip is being bought in the stock market with a vengeance, I wonder why these printing operations are really necessary?
This $14 billion plus buying activity by the Fed represents fresh money created out of this air that was exchanged for the sovereign debt of the US. However, since the Fed has, for all practical purposes, never undone its permanent operations (hey, that's why they are called "POMOs") we can consider these additions of money as good as permanent themselves.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/u4/Pomo_1b.jpg
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/u4/POMO_2b.jpg.
Looking at the maturity range we can see that these are all long-dated bonds with the one today specifically offering us a tantalizing clue as to how the shell game is being played.
Here's the Treasury announcement (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/R_20090730_1.pdf) for the 7-year auction that came out on July 30 (last Thursday). Please note the specific CUSIP number circled. Every bond in this auction carries this specific identifying number.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/u4/POMO_3.jpg

And now let's look at the detail for this most recent POMO:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/u4/POMO_4.jpg
Good grief! Just last week, when the auction results were announced it was trumpeted to great fanfare that there was "more than sufficient" bid-to-cover, "strong demand" and all the rest.
And now it turns out that 47% (!) of the bonds that were taken by the primary dealers in that auction have been quietly bought by the Fed and permanently secreted to its balance sheet.
They didn't even wait a full week! A more honest and open approach would have been for the Fed to simply buy them outright at the auction but this way, using "primary dealers" and "POMOs" and all these other extra steps the basic fact that the Fed is openly monetizing US government debt is effectively hidden from a not-too-terribly inquisitive US press and public.
The speed of the shell game is accelerating.
This immediate repurchase of newly auction bonds by the Fed tells us that demand for these bonds is not nearly as high as advertised, and that things are not quite as strong as represented.
And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash.....


http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fed-buys-last-weeks-treasury-auction/23880


http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig

Kaa
08-24-2009, 03:03 PM
The Fed Buys Last Week's Treasury Notes

That's news for you..? :D The Fed has a $300B program that's been going on since March...


March 18, 2009
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has announced that the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) will begin a Treasury purchase program of up to $300 billion to help improve conditions in private credit markets. The Desk will concentrate purchases in the 2- to 10-year sector of the nominal Treasury curve, although purchases will occur across the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Consistent with prior outright Treasury purchases, these purchases will be conducted with the Federal Reserve’s primary dealers through a series of competitive auctions via the Desk’s FedTrade system. On average, the Desk will purchase Treasury securities two to three times per week. Further details will be provided early next week after consultation with the primary dealers and other market participants. The Desk plans to hold the first purchase operation late next week. (http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2009/ma090318.html)

The point of the program, by the way, is not to soak up the supply of Treasurys, but rather to push down the rates.

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:11 PM
That's news for you..? :D The Fed has a $300B program that's been going on since March...

(http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2009/ma090318.html)

The point of the program, by the way, is not to soak up the supply of Treasurys, but rather to push down the rates.

Kaa

That's what you think. I see the PE ratio and see something different. We will see how it shakes out. Please stay in the markets as I am most likely wrong though.;)

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:12 PM
:)

Well, it's either a completely transparent move by the fed, with a rational objective... or it's a secret plan to destroy the US economy :)

Did you get most of the money back that you lost last time you said I was wrong megaphony?

Kaa
08-24-2009, 03:24 PM
That's what you think.

Um, no, that's what the Fed said. It has nothing to do with what I think.


I see the PE ratio and see something different.

And the connection between the stocks' PE ratio and the Fed program to keep the rates down..? By the way, what are you using for the E part?

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:26 PM
Are you saying you never admitted to any losses after my prediction of last Octobers crash? I recall 40% thereabouts but let me find the post and refresh your memory.

I frankly could care less what concerns you beyond your constant agenda megaphony threads. Like I said to Kaa, Please consider me wrong and invest heavily in the markets. It will be fun seeing you on the bread lines next year.

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:28 PM
Um, no, that's what the Fed said. It has nothing to do with what I think.



And the connection between the stocks' PE ratio and the Fed program to keep the rates down..? By the way, what are you using for the E part?

Kaa

It is what you think, you believe, I do not.

E part? you mean e-ticket?;)

Kaa
08-24-2009, 03:30 PM
E part? you mean e-ticket?;)

Oh, you're being cute :D

What do you use for the "earnings" part of the price-earnings ratio? People have been known to use a variety of things, say, from 10-year trailing to 1-year projected...

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:33 PM
Oh, you're being cute :D

What do you use for the "earnings" part of the price-earnings ratio? People have been known to use a variety of things, say, from 10-year trailing to 1-year projected...

Kaa

Cherrios. Custom made abacus. I tried lucky charms but it was messy then fruit loops but I ate them before I was done. Unsweetened Cherrio's are the bomb.;)

Kaa
08-24-2009, 03:34 PM
Cherrios. Custom made abacus. I tried lucky charms but it was messy then fruit loops but I ate them before I was done. Unsweetened Cherrio's are the bomb.;)

Aah, that explains A LOT :D

Kaa

Tylerdurden
08-24-2009, 03:36 PM
Aah, that explains A LOT :D

Kaa

Glad you like it, Like they weld manholes so no one can sneak a prybar in so goes the limits to your bull****e.

Kaa
08-24-2009, 04:01 PM
Glad you like it, Like they weld manholes so no one can sneak a prybar in so goes the limits to your bull****e.

You had your manhole welded? :eek: So that no one could sneak a prybar? :eek: :eek:

Oh, my... :D

Kaa

Glen Longino
08-24-2009, 04:09 PM
You had your manhole welded? :eek: So that no one could sneak a prybar? :eek: :eek:

Oh, my... :D

Kaa

I'm not a doctor, but I do believe I have just diagnosed at least one of Mark's problems!:eek::eek:

The Bigfella
08-24-2009, 06:42 PM
That is an extraordinary return on a stock portfolio Bigfella!!!:eek:

Forgive me for missing your predictions and market strategy last year. Whatever it was I want to see what you recommended to Mark that produced rate of return numbers that would make most hedge fund managers drool with envy. I remember Mark accurately forecasting a dramatic stock market decline last year and I remember Andrew's outstanding commentary on the state of international shipping before the financial crisis manifested itself, but I missed your recommendations. Would you please use the search function and post them up? I'm very interested in what you had to say in advance of the decline and how you made 245.2% in THE most tumultuous financial market of our lifetimes.

With a record like that, I'm also very interesting in what you have to say about the rest of 2009. Where should the smart money be for the balance of this year?


.

Do your own searching... bearing in mind that, for whatever reason (mostly to do with his abusive posts), many of his threads are gone.

He was preaching buying physical gold, I suggested that shares in the right operating gold producers were a better bet. The percentage increase today (25 Aug to 25 Aug) is 260.9. The question though, is when to lighten off on gold.

Rick-Mi
08-24-2009, 08:21 PM
Do your own searching... bearing in mind that, for whatever reason (mostly to do with his abusive posts), many of his threads are gone.

He was preaching buying physical gold, I suggested that shares in the right operating gold producers were a better bet. The percentage increase today (25 Aug to 25 Aug) is 260.9. The question though, is when to lighten off on gold.


That's the type of answer I expected.....



.

The Bigfella
08-24-2009, 09:16 PM
That's the type of answer I expected.....



.

as if I didn't know that....

Rick-Mi
08-25-2009, 12:05 AM
as if I didn't know that....


Know what, that you were going to evade the questions?



.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 12:14 AM
I didn't evade anything. If you don't like the answer.... do your own dirty work.... I'm busy writing a risk management report... which is about as boring as consulting can get.... but hey... it pays.

Rick-Mi
08-25-2009, 12:51 AM
I didn't evade anything. If you don't like the answer.... do your own dirty work.... I'm busy writing a risk management report... which is about as boring as consulting can get.... but hey... it pays.

It would seem someone is as braggadocios as you quoting exponential returns within tenths of a percent would be quick to demonstrate their prowess with actual facts and forward predictions of your own instead of evasive fluff :rolleyes:.

Don't forget, it was you who has gone to great lengths on this thread to minimize Mark's clear and accurate prediction of the stock market last year, while at the same time touting the greatness of your predictions. That may well be the case, but at this point it is all talk without a shred of evidence backing it up. On the other hand, nobody even has to ask where Mark stood at this time last year.

After all, it was you who clearly stated on this thread that your recommendations were much better than Mark's advise to get out of the general stock market (shortly before it crashed). Even if that sage advise happened to get "lost" in the forum archives, what are the symbols of these overachieving PM performers?


.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 12:54 AM
MML is one. NEM is another.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 01:04 AM
and just for you Rick-Mi

http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1962429&highlight=gold#post1962429

Rick-Mi
08-25-2009, 01:10 AM
NEM


Surely you jest....

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 01:22 AM
I said its a portfolio. Nothing wrong with owning some Newmont.

MML has been a good one this year. .41 to 2.89.

Rick-Mi
08-25-2009, 01:45 AM
I said its a portfolio. Nothing wrong with owning some Newmont.

MML has been a good one this year. .41 to 2.89.


ROFLMAO.....Now we know where the numbers for your "share portfolio" came from, cherry picking one penny stock.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=MML&compare=compare_code&indicies=XJO&compareCode=MML&chartType=3&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=2&vma=0&TimeFrame=D12



.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 02:09 AM
If that's what you reckon... you are entitled to your opinion. That's dollars, not pennies btw.

Rick-Mi
08-25-2009, 02:32 AM
If that's what you reckon... you are entitled to your opinion. That's dollars, not pennies btw.

Does an expert like you need to be told the definition of a penny stock?

Look at that chart for MML, and note how it corresponds with the numbers you quoted (260.9%) for your share "portfolio". Do we need to review the definition of a "portfolio" too?

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=MML&compare=compare_code&indicies=XJO&compareCode=MML&chartType=3&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=2&vma=0&TimeFrame=D12

.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 03:02 AM
I think you are making some bold assumptions. I sure as hell won't be posting the details of what I've got where... but I've given you two of the stocks I've been heavy in since I made the comment that I linked. There are others, some of which I've sold out of. I've also rejected others that have been put to me. I knocked back a gold IPO just recently... says he, thinking he should check out where it is.

Keep assuming.... I'll keep earning thank you very much.

Why don't you spend some of your time checking some of the other recommendations.... who knows, you might make some money.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 03:06 AM
Hmm - the one I said "no" to is up 20% since listing a month ago.

Tylerdurden
08-25-2009, 07:00 AM
Thanks for taking it up Rick but as you can see its not worth it in the long run. The man (used lightly) is a legend in his own mind.
As you see he is to busy to answer direct questions without the obligatory smokescreen. I am surprised he hasn't mentioned one of his personal friends from Hi-Finance, Government,industry or Law enforcement yet. ;)

He is too busy except to post to my every thread every waking moment which should show everyone here how important the information I post is.
The Flak is heaviest over the target they say and when one has the supreme allied commander of all things big and small posting rebuttals to ones every thread one must be so close to exposing the truth.:rolleyes:

I still think Ian hasn't been right since the announcement Herve'Villecheize passed away back in 93' one knows its tought to lose ones hero's.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/81/HerveVillechaize.jpg

Tylerdurden
08-25-2009, 07:30 AM
Some recent Fantasy Island

Yesterday, 07:08 PM
The Bigfella (http://woodenboat.com/forum/member.php?u=12900)



Re: The Largest Street Gang in America
When my work with the police was published in late '96, a very senior copper said "you could spend the rest of your life consulting to police forces around the world".... I decided not to - although there's still the occasional thought of a book.

Yesterday, 09:15 PM

Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Dooral Dooral, Eastern Oz
Posts: 15,487


Re: The Largest Street Gang in America
Yep - I had an argument with a Deputy Commissioner about that back in 96 - his line was that police are the best investigators, mine was that the public won't ever trust the investigation to be impartial.


With his work helping governments with finance and administration, Law enforcement and the military I am amazed the Nobel prize hasn't considered him for consideration. I have even heard Mother Theresa was about to quit the order for some wild monkey sex with him.:D

Tylerdurden
08-25-2009, 07:45 AM
Fed Must Release Reports on Emergency Bank Loans, Judge Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av_bCYnKeIUk

On another note:
Obama later played golf with UBS Investment Bank President Robert Wolf and Chicago (http://www.newsday.com/topics/Chicago) physician Eric Whitaker, both friends. White House (http://www.newsday.com/topics/White_House) aide Marvin Nicholson was also in the foursome.

Joe (SoCal)
08-25-2009, 08:22 AM
Well you have some of this right! You certainly will be lost to obscurity along with all of us.

What I don't understand though, is why a gentleman like you, with such phenomenal prescience would have time for this forum? Surely your great skills have made you incredibly wealthy and you have no need for employment?

Surely your great skills have put you in such a well diversified and protected position that you flit from continent to continent, confident that you and your family are financially and materially secure for the long term?

Yet, despite all of your skillls and achievements beyond our collective imaginations, you have the strong need (and time) to visit this forum thousands of times over, make predictions and then haggle over them like a child, leave like a child, and then return like a child for more haggling.

You know, something doesn't make sense here, and with all due respect, I have to guess that you're probably a woefully unhappy individual without a pot to piss in. I'm sorry for your plight.

Excellent post and requires repeating for the one person that obviously missed it.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 08:23 AM
Geez mate, did you miss that too while you were away? I caught up with a Prof who was on a Nobel Prize winning team (he was a junior member of the team) about 6 weeks back. Physics. Quite an interesting afternoon and dinner party. You would have enjoyed it.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 08:26 AM
I have even heard Mother Theresa was about to quit the order for some wild monkey sex with him.

Nice one. I'm sure she's smiling down on you and your great efforts for your fellow man.

skuthorp
08-25-2009, 08:28 AM
Quote Dave Wright: "Yet, despite all of your skillls and achievements beyond our collective imaginations, you have the strong need (and time) to visit this forum thousands of times over, make predictions and then haggle over them like a child, leave like a child, and then return like a child for more haggling."

Obsessive compulsive disorder?

Tylerdurden
08-25-2009, 09:34 AM
Flak is heaviest over the target. What morons cannot figure out is if they didn't post to my threads they would fall to ground.

Its like masturbation, these kids just cannot leave it alone.:D

johnw
08-25-2009, 02:38 PM
It's Kaa's thread, Mark. You're just posting to it.

Kaa
08-25-2009, 06:36 PM
Could you read me back the thread title please?

The critical difference is that you can't delete this thread :D

Kaa

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 06:40 PM
Hey guys, its Wednesday here, so that means you've probably got to Tuesday there, if the world hasn't imploded or exploded.

I'm still getting positive stories about bonds and things... here's a snip about the US



US Treasuries gained after a US$42bn 2yr auction found buyers, achieving a cover ratio of 2.68x. The 10yr yield fell 4bps to 3.43 per cent. Tomorrow sees a US$39bn 5yr auction.



... and bonds in Europe are returning to life after the summer lull. ....



Daimler, rated BBB+ printed €2bn of 5yr bonds at 180+swap. The deal is the biggest Euro bond issue in two months and received over €8bn of orders. Citi was also marketing a £500m 30yr deal.



Has Lord Destructo got the date wrong again?

Peter Malcolm Jardine
08-25-2009, 06:47 PM
well you have some of this right! You certainly will be lost to obscurity along with all of us.

What i don't understand though, is why a gentleman like you, with such phenomenal prescience would have time for this forum? Surely your great skills have made you incredibly wealthy and you have no need for employment?

Surely your great skills have put you in such a well diversified and protected position that you flit from continent to continent, confident that you and your family are financially and materially secure for the long term?

Yet, despite all of your skillls and achievements beyond our collective imaginations, you have the strong need (and time) to visit this forum thousands of times over, make predictions and then haggle over them like a child, leave like a child, and then return like a child for more haggling.

You know, something doesn't make sense here, and with all due respect, i have to guess that you're probably a woefully unhappy individual without a pot to piss in. I'm sorry for your plight.


kaaabloooey

:D:D:D

johnw
08-25-2009, 07:05 PM
Could you read me back the thread title please?

I'm sorry, did you not notice it at the top of your post? You still seem confused about the thread starter.

By the way, my shop is having its best month in a couple of years. Could be consumer confidence is making a comeback. I forget, was that in your forecast?

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 07:13 PM
We have a guy that got foreclosed on and is living on his boat at the Yacht club. He is a contractor. Go figure?

Ahhh - so that's it. Mark knows a contractor who went broke. Yep - that's proof of the end of the world.

The Bigfella
08-25-2009, 07:20 PM
Eh?

The Bigfella
08-26-2009, 10:14 AM
How much proof is best month in a couple of years?


Is this a comment on alcohol strength or just mangled English?

Now .... back to bonds.

Some comments by someone who knows a bit about bonds....

Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities.
Jenkins has held top research positions at Deutsche Bank and Barclays and was hailed by Credit Magazine as being influential in the development of the European bond market.

Jenkins discusses the legs of the current rally in credit, the sustainability of the wave of corporate bond supply, Deutsche Bank’s attempts to sell subordinated debt ,and the outlook for banking profits.


Has credit’s rally gone too far?

GJ: There’s no doubt its gone back extraordinarily quickly but there is still a little bit of value. This is what happens in times of distress - the move out is violent and aggressive, and the move back is equally so.

There is clearly a chance that there could be some profit taking and that selling could hit spreads. But levels are still outside their long term averages and still offer value from a high yield perspective versus long term default rates.

If you didn’t know the credit crunch had happened, if you’d gone out on a long boat trip and you came back now, and had no emotions or tie ups to the highs and the lows, and you just looked at spreads with a historical knowledge of how spreads traded, you’d say that at the moment credit spreads offered value.

But, if it was me and I had a high yield portfolio and I was up 50 per cent this year, I’d be looking to take some profits.

This year has seen record bond corporate issuance. Will it continue?

GJ: The supply this year has been exceptionally large under exceptional circumstances. I don’t think that actual level will be maintained. The bond markets changed at the back end of last year and it’s a bit like a new relationship - at the start there is incredible amount of passion, which gradually dies down to normality.

What we had was a huge amount of issuance but I think going forward we will see more issuance than we have seen historically, and more issuance than we would have done had there not been a credit crunch.

Let me explain. When you look at the growth of the European bond market there have been a few seminal events in its development– first was the introduction of the Euro which allowed the market to come in place. The second might have been Olivetti’s bid for Telecom Italia, because investors bought BBB bonds for the first time, moving down the credit curve. And you don’t just buy one BBB issue - once you’ve got into bed with the devil you have to buy more.

The third will be the credit crunch of 2007-08 because what happened was that corporate treasurers realised that the banks won’t always be there from a liquidity perspective, and as a treasurer your number one aim is to ensure that the company has sufficient liquidity to run its business and to survive and prosper. What has happened is that treasurers have said ‘We need an alternative source of funding. We can no longer just rely on the bank’. In the future any company that is big enough to get a rating and has a borrowing requirement is going to have some sort of strategy that involves access to the capital markets.

I’m not saying they all will access capital markets but they will have to at least consider it, and that’s very different to where we were even five years ago. The end result is that the corporate bond market will grow much bigger and more aggressively than it would have done if we hadn’t had this credit crunch.

This week Deutsche Bank launched a well supported Tier I bond deal, after angering investors by not calling an existing subordinated debt issue at the start of the year. Have investors got short memories?

GJ: The market has changed and fluctuated. Emotions run high at certain times. By being the first issuer not to call, Deutsche put themselves in the firing line. I think that whilst there might be some lingering bitterness and negativity, lots of others have done the same. After a while investors look at investment opportunities in a cold hearted manner. Either the deal makes sense or it doesn’t.

People haven’t stopped doing business with Deutsche. They are still trading and interacting with it more than they have before, and if the deal is priced right people will buy it. Some might refuse to take part and they have a right to, but if it’s priced right it will work.

Banks have bounced back with large profits in the second quarter. However, trading revenue rather than traditional banking was the key contributor. What is the outlook for banking profits?

GJ: You’d rather have any revenue than none, so all the talk of sustainable profit is relevant in good times but in bad times it’s a more a case of whatever makes a profit.

We need to view the trading revenue from a different perspective. There is a lot less competition out there as investment banks have either gone or been merged into each other.

Three of the biggest bond houses or capital markets players have been removed, so less competition has resulted in larger margins. Secondly market dislocation has also resulted in higher margins. Investment banks are going through a golden era in terms of profitability and from a margin point of view. Now, how long it lasts and how sustainable it is remains a moot point. With such high profits you expect new entrants, although it’s not the easiest industry to enter.

At some stage the regulators might start looking more closely at these extraordinary profits. Having said that, the regulators are in a tough spot. At the moment they can’t regulate too hard because the system is still on life support, so from their point of view it’s a case of ‘give me chastity oh lord, just not yet’.
Is the level of profits sustainable over a cycle of over five to ten years? Possibly not, but there is good margin to be made, and probably less risky returns, because at the moment the more levered kind of products are just not on the agenda. So, the banks in many ways are doing lower risk business and making more money.

Last year and the year before, the banks lost money on their ‘new age’ products such as securitisation and this year they are losing it on the traditional products where they usually lose it, such as SME loans, and retail and commercial property.

At some stage that will reverse and the banks will start making money again on these products. When bad debts decrease they are going to have a very sweet spot for a year or two. Gradually the industry will be regulated more closely and returns will be lower than in the boom years but it will still be a profitable business, because from an economic point of view it has to be.

....................

Yep - I pinched that from a daily bond diary, and I haven't attributed the source, other than the commentator... but seeing how I promoted the journo out of the research desk, I reckon he'll forgive me (please).

.............

So Lord Destructor - what's the gloom situation like, as opposed to the real world view?

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 08:55 AM
Its started and it will accelerate, maybe fater if a Black swan comes over the horizon.

Here's a swan now....

China’s Market ‘Should Be 2000 or Less,’ Xie Says (Update1)
Share (javascript:togShareLinks('shr_v');) | Email (?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20China%E2%80%99s%2 0Market%20%E2%80%98Should%20Be%202000%20or%20Less, %E2%80%99%20Xie%20Says%20%28Update1%29%20&body=%20China%E2%80%99s%20Market%20%E2%80%98Should %20Be%202000%20or%20Less,%E2%80%99%20Xie%20Says%20 %28Update1%29%20%0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26sid%3Da_HKcbuNhs0U) | Print (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_HKcbuNhs0U#) | A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_HKcbuNhs0U#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_HKcbuNhs0U#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_HKcbuNhs0U#)


By JoAnne Norton
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy isn’t “sustainable” and the Shanghai Composite Index, now at 2667.75, “should be 2000 or less,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andy+Xie&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said in an interview.
Xie, who correctly predicted in April 2007 China’s equities would tumble, told Bloomberg Television that the stock market remains “in bubble territory.”
China’s stocks plunged today, with the Shanghai index falling the most since June 2008 and entering a bear market, on concern a slowdown in lending growth may derail a recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.
The Shanghai gauge slumped 22 percent this month as banks reined in lending to avert asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity.
The decline stopped a rally that had sent the measure up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new loans will ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_HKcbuNhs0U


Lot of info coming to the markets and if you believe the talking heads (They were so right last time) you should invest heavily now.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. Just the Baltic Dry index.;)

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 09:00 AM
Another Black Swan rising?

Japan DPJ Election Win Brings ‘Bloodless Revolution’ (Update3)
Share (javascript:togShareLinks('shr_v');) | Email (?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Japan%20DPJ%20Ele ction%20Win%20Brings%20%E2%80%98Bloodless%20Revolu tion%E2%80%99%20%28Update3%29%20&body=%20Japan%20DPJ%20Election%20Win%20Brings%20%E 2%80%98Bloodless%20Revolution%E2%80%99%20%28Update 3%29%20%0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26sid%3Da.fAAwrxY6J0) | Print (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAQ0qltevVQI#) | A (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAQ0qltevVQI#) A (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAQ0qltevVQI#) A (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAQ0qltevVQI#)


By Sachiko Sakamaki and Stuart Biggs
http://bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iZfkQmiIb.QY

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Party of Japan (http://www.dpj.or.jp/english/) swept to power for the first time as the nation’s voters turned their backs on half a century of single-party government that failed to reverse economic stagnation and spiraling welfare costs.
The DPJ, led by 62-year-old Yukio Hatoyama (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Yukio+Hatoyama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), captured a record 308 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament. Prime Minister Taro Aso (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Taro+Aso&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) indicated he would resign as head of the Liberal Democratic Party (http://www.jimin.jp/), which lost almost two-thirds of its lawmakers in a complete reversal of the last election in 2005.
“This is a bloodless revolution, the first transfer of power from one party to another in postwar Japan,” said Tomoaki Iwai (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tomoaki%0AIwai&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a political science professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “The DPJ now faces the tough task of delivering on its promises and showing the Japanese public it can change the system.”
Hatoyama, who quit the LDP in 1993, has pledged to revive an economy emerging from its deepest recession since World War II by boosting child-care spending, cutting taxes and curtailing the power of bureaucrats. His grandfather founded the LDP in 1955 and became the first of that party’s 22 prime ministers.
“This election has been all about changing the government,” Hatoyama said in a nationally televised press conference. “Everything starts now.”
The Democrats had 112 seats before the lower house was dissolved last month. The LDP, which has governed for all but 10 months since its founding, saw its parliamentary strength fall to 119 seats from 303. Aso, 68, said his party “must start afresh” in choosing a new leader.
White House Statement
U.S. President Barack Obama (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) “looks forward to working closely with the new Japanese prime minister on a broad range of global, regional and bilateral issues,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Gibbs&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said in an e-mailed statement.
DPJ leaders including Hatoyama have called for a less subordinate relationship with the U.S., which keeps about 50,000 troops in Japan as part of a security alliance that has served as the focus of Japanese foreign policy since World War II.
“We are confident that the strong U.S.-Japan alliance and the close partnership between our two countries will continue to flourish,” Gibbs said in his statement.
Hatoyama’s incoming government must address record unemployment and measures to prepare for an aging, declining population. Japan has the world’s highest proportion of people over 65 years old and the lowest ratio of those under 15. Welfare outlays already make up a quarter of this year’s 88.5 trillion-yen ($945 billion) budget.
‘Sense of Frustration’
“There’s a sense of frustration and we need to change something to improve society and the economy,” said Toshiaki Kato, 42, a Tokyo company employee who voted for the DPJ. “The DPJ is the only political party that can replace the LDP.”
Japan’s economy grew an annualized 3.7 percent in the three months ended June 30, the first growth in five quarters, after an 11.7 percent decline in the first quarter of the year.
Japanese stocks and bond yields may rise on prospects the DPJ will increase spending to boost growth. Ten-year government bond yields will probably rise to 1.7 percent from 1.31 percent by year-end, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY%3AIND) will advance about 14 percent to as high as 12,000, said Yuuki Sakurai (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Yuuki+Sakurai&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chief executive officer of Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo.
“It’s a landslide victory for the DPJ and the equity market will remain excited for a couple of days or even a couple of weeks,” said Sakurai, who helps manage about 800 billion yen in assets.
Yen May Benefit
The yen may also benefit from the DPJ’s pledge to give the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/) more autonomy, increasing the scope for it to raise interest rates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. overnight interest- rate swaps signal a 19 percent chance borrowing costs, currently close to zero, will be lifted by the end of July.
Japan’s currency rose today, driving down stocks on concern exporters like Honda Motor Co. will get hurt. The yen gained to 92.77 per dollar from 93.60 on Aug. 28 in New York. The Nikkei fell 0.4 percent to 10,497.19 as of the 11 a.m. break.
To finance an economic aid package that would total 16.8 trillion yen in 2013, the DPJ says it will eliminate 9.1 trillion yen in unnecessary spending, tap special accounts managed by the nation’s bureaucrats and abolish some tax deductions.
“We would like the DPJ to carry out discussions that transcend party lines and produce concrete results,” Fujio Mitarai (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Fujio%0AMitarai&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chairman of the Keidanren, the country’s biggest business lobby, said in an e-mailed statement. “It’s vital that a way out of the economic turmoil is found.”
LDP Heavyweights Fall
LDP heavyweights fell with their party. Former Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Toshiki+Kaifu&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), 78, lost his seat, as did former Finance Ministers Shoichi Nakagawa (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Shoichi+Nakagawa&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) and Koji Omi (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Koji+Omi&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1). Kaifu, who was first elected in 1960, would be the first former premier to lose his district since 1963.
“It’s about time for change,” said Yuichi Tauchi, 25, a project manager at a truck manufacturer in Tokyo after voting for the DPJ. “People have been losing faith in the LDP, and a change in politics will hopefully bring about optimism.”
Hatoyama is a scion of Japan’s most prominent political family. In addition to grandfather Ichiro, a great-grandfather was speaker of the lower house and Hatoyama’s father was foreign minister. His younger brother, Kunio, is a senior member of the LDP, and was re-elected yesterday.
Of the 308 DPJ legislators elected yesterday, 268 are male and 40 are female.
NHK estimated voter turnout at 69 percent of Japan’s 104 million voters, which would exceed the 67.5 percent that cast ballots in the last lower house election.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAQ0qltevVQI

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 09:07 AM
What? No answer on why the bond market didn't fail on the specific day you said it would?

Its collapsing now. If you were smart enough to see the numbers.
Sometimes one has to look beyond what the TV tells them.

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c350/mudhutwarrior/longtermsecuritiespurchases.jpg

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 09:39 AM
I notice you didn't post the one that includes T-Bills

http://www.cellphones.ca/news/uploads/preperationH.jpg

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 09:43 AM
Oh such well informed commentary. What a genius.


Start posting information rather than just the opinions of a Masters In Business Apocalypse. We can get your drivel on CNBC here. They were 100% wrong last time too.

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 12:04 PM
Everything's fine, Really.
"Loss-Share": FDIC Offers Billions In Guarantees For Buyers Of Failed Banks (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/31/loss-share-fdic-offers-bi_n_272518.html)

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 01:53 PM
"We Spent $13 Trillion And These Banks Are STILL IN THE CRAPPER!"

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-we-spent-13-trillion-and-these-banks-are-still-in-the-crapper-2009-8

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 01:55 PM
Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Insider Selling in August Soars to 30.6 Times Insider Buying, Highest Level Since TrimTabs Began Tracking in 2004. NYSE Short Interest Plunges 10.3%, While Margin Debt Spikes 5.9%
SAUSALITO, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.
"The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.
TrimTabs' data on insider transactions is based on daily filings of Form 4, which corporate officers, directors, and major holders are required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March.
For example, short interest on NYSE stocks plummeted by 10.3% in the second half of July and margin debt on all US listed stocks spiked 5.9% in July, while 51.6% of advisors surveyed by Investors Intelligence are bullish, the highest level since December 2007.
"When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of stock," said Biderman.
TrimTabs also reports that the actions of U.S. public companies have been bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record $105.2 billion in shares.
"Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman. "Companies and corporate insiders are signaling that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes."
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com (http://www.trimtabs.com/).

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-28-2009/0005084471&EDATE=

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 07:13 PM
Do yourself a favour, give it a break for a while Mark. You are teetering on the edge again.

Nothing to respond with? Tired of beating the drum of inevitability?

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 08:13 PM
Sure. I'll give you a response. On topic even.

What happened to your "end of summer (2008)" and "100 days (August 15)" predictions? Is there ever any integrity in your predictions?

It has begun, what more do you need? Things should be moving along briskly now. Most stupid people should fully catch on over the next month or so, The caveat is the truly dense, hopelessly programed probably will never wake up until the bullet hits the bone. If you fit in to the last category I am truly sorry and wish you peace in the next.:)

Uncle Duke
08-31-2009, 08:29 PM
I figure most of this will heat up around the time of planned National level exercise near the end of July. I don't see any delay in the works as its all centered around the collapse of the dollar.
Don't forget lots of foreign troops are included in this one in their own press releases.I've got a spare room if they need it....but, you know, haven't seen them yet.
Haven't seen the "press releases" either.
Is this the same troops who were gathering at Ft. Drum, from an earlier posting???:D
Mark, love ya, but if this is happening we need a new date....

MiddleAgesMan
08-31-2009, 08:37 PM
...Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. Just the Baltic Dry index.;)

From Wikipedia: "...marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. 'if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. in other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates...'"

In other words, a marginal decrease in demand for shipping spells the end of the world as we know it???

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 08:41 PM
I've got a spare room if they need it....but, you know, haven't seen them yet.
Haven't seen the "press releases" either.
Is this the same troops who were gathering at Ft. Drum, from an earlier posting???:D
Mark, love ya, but if this is happening we need a new date....

I said "Heat Up" not full on nuclear Armageddon. Things are heating up. If you wish to ignore the details because CNN hasn't said it you only have yourself to blame. Just ask yourself what follows the collapse of the dollar? This isn't 1929 when people more often than not gave a ****e about one another. Once It kicks in earnest it is only logical to expect troops on the streets. We have seen it during most major riots have we not?

This isn't rocket science and Nostradamus doesn't need to chime in. Its just common sense.
I get a lot of emails from people who see it and are doing something about it. Some here actually saved most of their retirement paying attention to the writing on the wall I posted last time. I can see how that will piss off a select few as their live's are built upon papers and credentials, You are not the contents of your wallet. Just wake up and look around. This all is heading in only one direction now, no matter all the wishful thinking in the world.

Tylerdurden
08-31-2009, 08:42 PM
From Wikipedia: "...marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. 'if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. in other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates...'"

In other words, a marginal decrease in demand for shipping spells the end of the world as we know it???

Trends dude, Look at it over time. Small spikes mean nothing.

johnw
08-31-2009, 08:56 PM
We're all gonna die. Tomorrow.

And it's all because of Our Reptilian Overlords.

Mark, are you a fan of this guy?

http://www.davidicke.com/index.php/

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 01:41 AM
From Wikipedia: "...marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. 'if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. in other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates...'"

In other words, a marginal decrease in demand for shipping spells the end of the world as we know it???

Baltic Dry Index posts steepest fall in 10 months (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/shippingtimes/story/0,4574,348141,00.html?)



http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/shippingtimes/story/0,4574,348141,00.html?

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 01:53 AM
So, we've now spiralled down from worrying about global economic system collapse... to monitoring the BDI for a hiccup.

I prefer to check the tealeaves myself.

Now - I'll say it again Lord Destructor... what's your current prediction. What can we expect to happen, and when?

Or, should I just get the Prep H out?

Complete retard?


Trends dude, Look at it over time. Small spikes mean nothing.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 01:56 AM
Now - I'll say it again Lord Destructor... what's your current prediction. What can we expect to happen, and when?



Originally Posted by Tylerdurden http://woodenboat.com/forum/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2232499#post2232499)
Time for Tyler to say times they be getting interesting.

I think we will see the final crash of the bond markets soon as all indications are heading in that direction.

Tidal waves of massive unemployment, Corporate and personal bankruptcy will rise coupled with a complete and total credit freeze.

As this occurs the distractions of Iran or NK more than likely will escalate maybe to limited armed conflict and/or pandemics of one form or another will be the impetus for troops to be on the streets.
Maybe Georgia and the Black sea but I doubt it.
Yeah, the health issue is a distraction too.

Massive clampdowns of the internet in the form of disruption (cyber attack) or outright censorship to save us all will be seen. I thought maybe the Hate speech issue but I really don't see it playing except for only the most brainwashed. The false flag shooting results are not going as planned.

Dissent will be come terrorism in our daily speech and the roundups will begin as a preventive measure.

Food shortages will come to materialize and the costs of whats available will climb dramatically.

I figure most of this will heat up around the time of planned National level exercise near the end of July. I don't see any delay in the works as its all centered around the collapse of the dollar.
Don't forget lots of foreign troops are included in this one in their own press releases.

All this means that if you can go sailing now. That's my plan and I am sticking to it.

PS. have a nice day.:)

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 12:10 PM
Another Black Swan?

UPDATE 1-Beijing's derivative default stance rattles banks


* State-owned firms may default on commodity hedges - report
* Bankers dismayed, confused by report; seek more details
* Lawyers question legality of the move
* Traders suspect lurking losses may have prompted warning (Adds analysts comments)
By Eadie Chen and Chen Aizhu
BEIJING, Aug 31 (Reuters) - A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.
While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.
The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.
While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.
"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.
A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.
Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs (GS.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GS.N)) and UBS (UBSN.VX (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=UBSN.VX)) declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley (MS.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=MS.N)) and JPMorgan (JPM.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=JPM.N)) were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.
No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.
"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."

For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.
The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.
But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered.
"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.
The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO -- among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year -- had issued almost identical notices to banks.
"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.
Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.
"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association.
It's also unclear why Chinese state firms, which have complained that their foreign banks sometimes did not disclose full information of potential risks when selling them complicated products, did not seek redress through the courts.
"If that is the case, these firms should seek through legal measures to safeguard their rights, instead of turning to the authorities for political interference," said a different lawyer.
SASAC took over the job of overseeing SOEs' derivatives trading from the securities regulator in February after several Chinese firms reported huge losses from derivatives.
For a factbox of China's derivatives debacles:[ID:nPEK206094] (Reporting by Eadie Chen and Chen Aizhu in Beijing, Alfred Cang in Shanghai, George Chen and Michael Flaherty in Hong Kong; Editing by Jonathan Leff)

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSSP47327420090831?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=11604

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 12:29 PM
I'm highly amused that Mark is claiming he was right in his predictions about the economic events of last year. He wasn't. While times certainly weren't good, he was predicting total economic collapse, and advising people to hoard food. That's not what happened.

Of course, he could be right this time. I'm not betting on it.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 12:35 PM
I'm highly amused that Mark is claiming he was right in his predictions about the economic events of last year. He wasn't. While times certainly weren't good, he was predicting total economic collapse, and advising people to hoard food. That's not what happened.

Of course, he could be right this time. I'm not betting on it.

Cite? I told people to get ready. Try again smear boy.

I urged people to plant gardens and learn basic skills. Preparation is a bad thing?
Keep fighting to prove your right when even back then you were clearly wrong. All the incrementalism I warned about transpired.
Character is easier maintained then reclaimed Keith. You have some catching up to do.

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 12:44 PM
Ah, back to insults. I know I've made a valid point when you call me a name.

The vast majority of what you predicted did not happen. That's how it is.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 02:31 PM
Ah, back to insults. I know I've made a valid point when you call me a name.

The vast majority of what you predicted did not happen. That's how it is.

You ignored my request to cite though? Convenience or was it a contrivance?

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 02:47 PM
Oh, it's a "contrivance", a conspiracy most foul and perfidious.. The CIA is paying me well to discredit you - or was it the Freemasons? Or the Jesuits? The Bilderberger Group? Damn; there are so many of them, it's hard to remember. :D

Seriously, if you think I care enough to rummage through all those old posts to find the exact quote, best think again. However, you predicted complete economic collapse. It didn't happen.

Jim Bow
09-01-2009, 02:59 PM
I'll be in Canada on a fishing trip with my family. With any luck, they'll close the border and I can become a resident.;)

Brian


a while back I read about thousands of Chinese paramilitary being housed in Canadian salt mines just north of the Dakotas, ready to invade us at the command of the NWO.

Let us know if you see any.

johnw
09-01-2009, 03:39 PM
Keith, thank you for doing the work of us Reptilian Overlords.

Uncle Duke
09-01-2009, 03:52 PM
TD request:

Cite?
From last October:
http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=86979
TD, from that thread:

Not sure of the timing but I would guess between now and January.

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 03:57 PM
Ah, thank you, Uncle Duke, faithful fellow agent of our Masters.

Mark's prediction: Worldwide economic collapse, followed by martial law and suspension of civil liberties, between mid-October 2008 and January 2009.

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 04:56 PM
Thank you Donn, faithful fellow servant of the Corporate Overlords.

That was Christmas 2008, just to clarify.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:04 PM
Well who can argue with all the crap being fished up? Nothing concrete other than a sentence of speculation.

Last laugh still stands even with several doing their best.

So far all those throwing stones have a dismal a track record far worse than anything I have written. Dow 14K! springs to mind.

At least I haven't been selling bull****e, as preparation and pulling out of the markets as I did say did pan out. The few here less anal than yourselves still have more retirement and suffered less loss than all of you.

Must piss you off enough to pile on like usual as though.:p

"there's a clear desire to pile on. I don't know just what they get out of it.... does it give them pleasure? Do they enjoy it? People like that strike me as 'near sociopaths'"

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:09 PM
Another goodie from the same thread:


Still stands Donn, No one I know expected Tarp or the printing presses to print Monopoly money to manipulate the markets.
I have posted enough about that for reasonable people to see what the deal is.

I always say once you think you have it figured out your wrong.
No skin of my ass though as I sure am a lot more on target than you ever have been.

Keep shoveling though, this will be funny over the long run I am sure of that.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:10 PM
It should spring to mind. If you care to check, I was reporting (http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=67699), not predicting. I was right.


Okay. In your mind maybe.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:17 PM
I figure as we are on this I will point out where I was wrong by a mile.

Speaking of Tarp, the bailouts, cash for clunkers and now the Heath care debate in the middle of a financial collapse I was completely off base and completely misunderstood the capacity of educated supposedly intelligent Americans to be conned and coned again.

I thought we would reach saturation of this grifters paradise much sooner.
I was wrong and the Dolts above me just reinforce my failure to comprehend how brainwashed some people can be. I guess my faith in my fellow man is somewhat shaken now because of it.
Time to find my sesame street explains the economy tape so at some point we can rehabilitate them.:D

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:20 PM
So your good at blowing...bubbles?

Will you post your predictions on which way it was gonna go later in that thread?

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:23 PM
I follow the stock market. I don't predict it.



I'm sure that question means something to you, but it escapes me.


Lots of things escape you Donn, Its alright we understand.;)

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 05:29 PM
Once again, what shuld be obvious. Mark's predictions have almost all been dead wrong.

There has been no complete global economic collapse.
No martial law.
No suspension of civil liberties.
The dollar has not collapsed.
No hyperinflation.

Of course, if one keeps predicting disaster three or four times a day, something bad is guaranteed to happen eventually, and with sufficient creativity, a prediction can be stretched to cover it. But his record is far, far worse than a random prediction generator.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:35 PM
If I am such a loser and its all so obvious why try so hard to shoot it down? Why have twenty posters so dedicated to making sure I am silenced any way possible. Should be crystal to most folks I would guess.

Doth protest way to much to be believed.:p

johnw
09-01-2009, 05:37 PM
Not hard to shoot down at all. You just can't admit when you've been shown to be wrong.

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 05:39 PM
No actually I am watching the Asian markets tonight to be to concerned with you clowns.

Keep trying though, its fun to play wind up the morons once in a while.;)

Keith Wilson
09-01-2009, 06:03 PM
Oh, Mark will never, ever apologize. He will never admit that he's been wrong, never admit that his dire predictions so far have been almost completely incorrect - even when shown his own words predicting things (always awful things) which have never happened. To do so would require examining his basic view of the world; that there are secret malevolent forces controlling events, that he is one of the few who understand this, and that the rest of use are dupes and slaves, if not actually in league with the evil powers. This would require way too much of a stretch, not mental, but emotional, since it would threaten the very foundations of the world he's built for himself. It's far safer to think that those who disagree with him are morons.

oznabrag
09-01-2009, 06:28 PM
...

Has he made a Swine Flu prediction yet?

Mark and swine in the same sentence...

Or maybe something like " Mark was always right when swine flew"...I don't know. Better minds than mine will make a pretty good joke outta that!

Tylerdurden
09-01-2009, 07:21 PM
You guys are slowing down, I thought the parade of sore losers would go two pages.;)

johnw
09-01-2009, 08:27 PM
I know how you love the attention, even when people are pointing out what a poopyhead you are, but some of us have a living to make.

Tom Wilkinson
09-01-2009, 09:38 PM
BUMP. I am still waiting for Tylerdurden to answer my question...

Good luck with that.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 03:34 AM
Still looking for two pages of hate? Come on you slackers.:D

How bout those Asian Markets?

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 04:25 AM
Selective picking Ian?

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-closemkt.gifAustraliaASX 100-62.60-1.69%3,637.50
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-closemkt.gifAustraliaASX All Ords-74.70-1.66%4,436.60
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-closemkt.gifAustraliaASX Mid-cap 50-82.60-1.99%4,077.00
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-closemkt.gifHong KongHang Seng-350.30-1.76%19,522.00
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-openmkt.gifHong KongHSCC Red Chip-87.99-2.27%3,793.78
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/cnnmoney-com/markets/images/clock-closemkt.gifJapanNikkei 225-249.60-2.37%10,280.46

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 04:43 AM
You want to compare daily fluctuations now as evidence of your doom and gloom eh? Oh how the mighty have fallen.


All I said is I was watching them, You posted crap to counter it.
I put up the actual figures in context so now you try a different angle as corrupt as it can be.
Never cease to amaze me what a totally insecure person you are.

If anyone needs to get a life it's you Ian. I may be a trickster but your a joke.:D

Chris Coose
09-02-2009, 06:48 AM
Let me put this down for prosperity,

I think within the next 100 days the ones who feel the need to attack me will be embarrassed to come here and act like nothing has happened. I am relatively sure of this so that's why I am writing this now.

Save this as we will see the final turn in the economy and the final signs of martial law and gun confiscations will more likely be exposed by then. If not at the minimum most of the arguments I get will be quieted in a big way.

I still doubt the WBF will be here beyond the end of the year.

I missed this one. That's a beaut.
I watched a show on the Truthers on Nat Geo. couple nights ago.
The MO they described for the knuckleheads is in every TD thread.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 07:10 AM
No patients to abuse today?:D

Joe (SoCal)
09-02-2009, 07:19 AM
Save this as we will see the final turn in the economy and the final signs of martial law and gun confiscations will more likely be exposed by then. If not at the minimum most of the arguments I get will be quieted in a big way.

What a anarchy apocalyptic moron :rolleyes:
If it wasn't so funny to watch I would be worried ol Tylerdurden might actually become his character in Fight Club and wig out.

On a serious note, I've been worried about ol Mark's mental health, my prediction is he not the economy will spiral out of control in the near future.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 07:23 AM
Come on, two pages of hate. Get to work slackers.:D

I haven't decided if mental midget counts yet.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 07:39 AM
Just a little more.... Come on, you wussy's can pull this off I just know it.;)

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 08:03 AM
I figured Joe would keep going but he must still be upset after failing auditions for Americas next top Narcissist.;)

Tom Wilkinson
09-02-2009, 08:04 AM
Come on, two pages of hate.



You have over 25% of the posts in this thread thus far. Not to hard to get a few pages that way is it. You have more replies to yourself tham most of the thread contributotors have replies in total. Lonely? You spend a lot of time talking to yourself.

Joe (SoCal)
09-02-2009, 08:06 AM
I figured Joe would keep going but he must still be upset after failing auditions for Americas next top Narcissist.;)

More made up facts by Tylerturd :D
What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

Keith Wilson
09-02-2009, 09:23 AM
Hate? Not at all. Just disagreement, and the fact that you can't tell the difference is a large part of the problem. When I express actual hate, I guarantee you'll know it.

No, I'm just pointing out that you predict disasters of one type or another multiple times every day, and so far, you've been dead wrong every time. It's getting tedious.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 10:59 AM
Hate? Not at all. Just disagreement, and the fact that you can't tell the difference is a large part of the problem. When I express actual hate, I guarantee you'll know it.

No, I'm just pointing out that you predict disasters of one type or another multiple times every day, and so far, you've been dead wrong every time. It's getting tedious.

It has been happening everyday, you just haven't noticed.

I always have pointed out this is failing in incrementally. Not my fault you guys need billboards and tv anchors lighting themselves on fire to understand this. Its not covert as most of my posting should make you aware of that.

You should be happy soon as it seems to be speeding up exponentially.

oznabrag
09-02-2009, 11:02 AM
Hate? Not at all. Just disagreement, and the fact that you can't tell the difference is a large part of the problem. When I express actual hate, I guarantee you'll know it.

No, I'm just pointing out that you predict disasters of one type or another multiple times every day, and so far, you've been dead wrong every time. It's getting tedious.

What's that old chestnut about remaining silent and being thought a fool or opening one's big yap and removing all doubt?

Our correspondent from Fight Club could give that old saw a think.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 12:04 PM
I don't see a gun to anyone's head here. No one forces you to click.

According to what is written here, clicking on my threads subjects one to wild assed speculation, fantasy and rampant rudeness and outright abuse.
Seems to me you guys are the idiots. Or just masochists.:D

Joe (SoCal)
09-02-2009, 12:15 PM
Tylertwits level of delusion is absolutely astounding. He just keeps on believing he's the only all knowing soothsayer of doom and we are all blind.

It's comical if it wasn't so pitiful. He's been proven wrong at every turn, yet he keeps waving his hands in victory.

Tylerdurden
09-02-2009, 12:54 PM
Tylertwits level of delusion is absolutely astounding. He just keeps on believing he's the only all knowing soothsayer of doom and we are all blind.

It's comical if it wasn't so pitiful. He's been proven wrong at every turn, yet he keeps waving his hands in victory.

Shows how stupid you are. There is no victory in any this.