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Tar Devil
10-09-2008, 05:10 PM
NPR
All Things Considered, October 9, 2008

A draft report by U.S. intelligence agencies says the situation in Afghanistan is in a "downward spiral" as Taliban fighters threaten stability in the region.

The classified National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, won't be released until after the November presidential election. But government officials who reviewed it described its contents to New York Times reporters.

"For the first time in many years, the intelligence agencies of the U.S. government have come together and have said in the most comprehensive way that the U.S. and allies and Afghan government are in danger of 'losing' Afghanistan, essentially," says Eric Schmitt, who covers terrorism and national security for the Times.

Schmitt tells NPR's Melissa Block, "This is not a phrase or assessment that intelligence analysts use lightly."


Full story (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95565414)

Tylerdurden
10-09-2008, 05:38 PM
Don't worry, they are coming home soon and most will be used against us in time.

LeeG
10-09-2008, 07:07 PM
if something isn't working right the obvious solution is to do it more often and harder.

I feel a Neocon angel near..she's whispering.."it seemed like a good idea at the time, I"m going back to teach, won't be around for awhile"

then poof, she was gone leaving little sparkles of creative chaos all around.

John of Phoenix
10-09-2008, 08:01 PM
I can't imagine why the combined intelligence agencies of the U.S. government would leak this before the election. :)

seanz
10-09-2008, 09:35 PM
I can't imagine why the combined intelligence agencies of the U.S. government would leak this before the election. :)

Of all the bad news I've read in the last week or so Tar Devil's link is the only bit that got me feeling down. A loss in Afghanistan, what a waste.....:(

Lets look on the 'bright' side, maybe it is just politics.

LeeG
10-09-2008, 09:46 PM
just wondering,,anyone know how Pakistan is doing?

on a barely related note is the present financial crisis going to inhibit military presence/policy in Afghanistan and Iraq?

Tinman
10-09-2008, 10:22 PM
Ya know, I find all this talk of "losing" funny considering the history of both our countries. as Canadains we have never lost, ever. [ not even 1812. ] We just don't cut and run before the job is finished no matter how tough things get. As for my American friends, the only time you lose, is when a guy like Clinton calls the shots. There where many times after DDay, that things looked very grim indeed for the allies, and if people like the "oh my God we are losing we must cut and run" crowd, we would have brilliantly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I live near CFB Petawawa, one of Canada's main Army bases. Many of the soldiers there have been on two and three tours to "Afstan". When I talk to them, they tell me not only are we winning, but they want to go back and finish what we started. So who am I supposed to listen too? a bunch of politically motivated egg heads who have axes to grind with the present adminsitration? Or the guys who are on the ground, doing our dirty work? It dosn't take me very long to answer that question. To quit now, just because it's hard, is to throw away the thousands of lives lost to this point. It is Un American, and for me personally, it is UN Canadian, and that just isn't cool. Not now, not ever.

Syed
10-09-2008, 11:19 PM
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein

TimH
10-09-2008, 11:26 PM
just wondering,,anyone know how Pakistan is doing?



Well we were over there bombing today...Im sure that accomplished a lot.

LeeG
10-10-2008, 02:28 AM
going to toss this in the hopper, you military types might want to play along.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/9/9813/16416/597/624860

Lack of an operational center of gravity to attack is the defining characteristic of counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, low intensity conflict, etc. Superpowers who fight these kinds of adversaries never come out smelling floral. As co-creator of the Fourth Generation Warfare concept William Lind wrote recently, "invaders and occupiers have almost never won against a guerrilla-style war of national liberation. Not even the best counterinsurgency techniques make much difference."

How Terrorist Groups End, a recent Rand Corporation report authored by Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki, studied 648 groups that existed between 1968 and 2006 and analyzed how their terror activities terminated. Only seven percent desisted because of military force applied against them. 83 percent of the success against terror organizations came from policing and political actions. "Against most terror groups," the report states, "military force is usually too blunt an instrument." It notes that "even precision weapons have been of limited use against terrorist groups," and that the "use of substantial U.S. military power against terrorist groups also runs a significant risk of turning the local population against the government by killing civilians." Regarding use of American troops overseas to combat al Qaeda, the report says the best approach is "a light U.S. military footprint or none at all."

Captain Blight
10-10-2008, 02:35 AM
Israel did a great job of destabilizing the PLO simply by opening channels of communication between the young angry jobless men in the PLO's ranks and marriagable young women from Lebanon. Something like 80% of the "fighting force" simply removed themselves from the fray when they figured out they could have a future.


*n.b. This is based on a hazy recollection of something I might have read, or might have heard on NPR, some years ago. Don't accept this as gospel.

LeeG
10-10-2008, 02:38 AM
I read the same. Don't think it was Israel but the PLO reintegrating the men into society.

PeterSibley
10-10-2008, 03:28 AM
going to toss this in the hopper, you military types might want to play along.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/9/9813/16416/597/624860

Lack of an operational center of gravity to attack is the defining characteristic of counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, low intensity conflict, etc. Superpowers who fight these kinds of adversaries never come out smelling floral. As co-creator of the Fourth Generation Warfare concept William Lind wrote recently, "invaders and occupiers have almost never won against a guerrilla-style war of national liberation. Not even the best counterinsurgency techniques make much difference."

How Terrorist Groups End, a recent Rand Corporation report authored by Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki, studied 648 groups that existed between 1968 and 2006 and analyzed how their terror activities terminated. Only seven percent desisted because of military force applied against them. 83 percent of the success against terror organizations came from policing and political actions. "Against most terror groups," the report states, "military force is usually too blunt an instrument." It notes that "even precision weapons have been of limited use against terrorist groups," and that the "use of substantial U.S. military power against terrorist groups also runs a significant risk of turning the local population against the government by killing civilians." Regarding use of American troops overseas to combat al Qaeda, the report says the best approach is "a light U.S. military footprint or none at all."

The only major success of conventional forces against an insurgency that I can think of was the "Malay Insurgency".Hard ,nasty but successful . .http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malay_Emergency

LeeG
10-10-2008, 03:33 AM
man, there's some major lessons happening here.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174986/anand_gopal_who_rules_afghanistan_

PeterSibley
10-10-2008, 03:47 AM
BTW ,Lee , that was an interesting link .
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/9/9813/16416/597/624860

LeeG
10-10-2008, 03:55 AM
I saw Jeff Hubers name on a military.com article and was surprised to see it on DailyKos.

PeterSibley
10-10-2008, 04:00 AM
and so's the second .

Syed
10-11-2008, 07:44 AM
"ISLAMABAD (http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=17745): The United States is on board with Great Britain in seeking a negotiated settlement with the Taliban in Afghanistan as both the countries are following a multi-pronged policy for bringing sustainable peace to Afghanistan."