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View Full Version : Oil hits $130 a barrel! Diesel thru the roof



sawcutmill
05-21-2008, 05:36 AM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1020821/Warnings-new-fuel-protests-motorists-struggle-fastest-rise-diesel-prices-decade.html

Tylerdurden
05-21-2008, 05:41 AM
Don't tell Bigfella. He swore it was going the other way at 105:D

S.V. Airlie
05-21-2008, 06:57 AM
Yup, up to a bit higher that 127.00 a barrel. However, part of the price is directly related to the value of the US 'buck'. No one seems to mention that..
When the buck is worth less, the buying power of that 'buck' is less.
It is not nec. all due to gouging as Sen. Dodd is insisting.. Although there may be some..

Tylerdurden
05-22-2008, 03:56 AM
Yup, up to a bit higher that 127.00 a barrel. However, part of the price is directly related to the value of the US 'buck'. No one seems to mention that..
When the buck is worth less, the buying power of that 'buck' is less.
It is not nec. all due to gouging as Sen. Dodd is insisting.. Although there may be some..

Sorry Jaimie, been busy with the 9/11 wrecking crew.:D

sawcutmill
05-22-2008, 05:48 AM
Ok, this is becoming really STUPID~ Oil hit $135.00 !I posted this topic yesterday and since then there was a $5 increase, here is a a bloomberg article http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDneiOlNhmkQ&refer=home

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-22-2008, 05:54 AM
Well, I just filled the tank on the way to work:

Options:

BP: 1.25.9 / litre

Exxon: 1.27.6 / litre

Shell: 1.22.9 / litre

Went for Shell, of course.

The price differential is entirely down to when the various filling stations last filled their tanks - it will probably be in a different order next week.

My own views can be found here:

http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=79941

Tylerdurden
05-22-2008, 05:59 AM
Its not good. No powerboats this year. I was talking to the yard owner where my boat is and he said only the very small powerboats are going in. Most of the big stinkpots are staying on the hard.
Big article about how the lake operators are on the verge of bankruptcy because no one is coming or buying.

It isn't going to be pretty but I am not worried about finding a mooring this year. The places where there was waiting lists for dock space 3 years long are now having some to offer.

Who this is really going to hurt is most of the poor and middle class in this country. No one can afford to commute.
My plumber working with me said he charges for estimates now, not to cover his time but to cover his gas for the one ton high cube he drives.
Crap is getting deep.

PeterSibley
05-22-2008, 06:07 AM
http://www.woodenboat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=79941

and very interesting it is too .

$1.74 litre at the pump for diesel x4 = $6.96 per US gallon .Fortunately the 240D gets 34mpg .Bio on the horizon .

Gary E
05-22-2008, 07:54 AM
I saw a listing if the COST of the gas and the TAXes you pay...

YOU HAVE A TAX PROBLEM

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 10:06 AM
The problem can be wrapped up in two words - hedge funds.

No regulation, no control and ungodly leverage. Normal leverage for the average investor is 2 to 1. Just prior to the crash of '29, leverage was 10 to 1. Bear Sterns failed because they were leveraged 32 to 1. Long Term Capital Management failed in 1999 and took the world to the brink of a depression that would have dwarfed anything in history. It's estimated they were leveraged 1300 to 1. And STILL there are no regulations* governing these monsters.

Capitalism has nothing to fear from Socialism or Communism or Islamism or any other ism, but at this rate, Capitalism will destroy itself. And the rest of us along the way.

*Guess who invests heavily in hedge funds.

Gary E
05-22-2008, 10:14 AM
John,
Just WHO is feeding you that opinion?

Do you have any idea how the WORLDS Commodities Futures Markets worK ??

BrianW
05-22-2008, 10:15 AM
Hedgehogs?

peb
05-22-2008, 10:18 AM
The problem can be wrapped up in two words - hedge funds.

No regulation, no control and ungodly leverage. Normal leverage for the average investor is 2 to 1. Just prior to the crash of '29, leverage was 10 to 1. Bear Sterns failed because they were leveraged 32 to 1. Long Term Capital Management failed in 1999 and took the world to the brink of a depression that would have dwarfed anything in history. It's estimated they were leveraged 1300 to 1. And STILL there are no regulations* governing these monsters.

Capitalism has nothing to fear from Socialism or Communism or Islamism or any other ism, but at this rate, Capitalism will destroy itself. And the rest of us along the way.

*Guess who invests heavily in hedge funds.

Determining leverage for commodity funds is quite difficult. I don't think that commodity funds are currently more leveraged than historical amounts. This is based on anecdotal evidence, so I could be wrong.
There has been a huge inflow of money to commodity funds and this is what is driving ACB's point kicking off his other thread.
In general, I do think that the speculative trading is what is driving up the price of commodities at this time, in particular oil. Also, and this is anecdotal, but the last couple of days I am hearing a lot of talk about people considering shorting oil at these levels. Too much talk in my opinion. This leads me to believe there may be further price spikes before the correction occurs. But I do think it will occur.

Gary E
05-22-2008, 10:21 AM
PEB,
EVERY time someone goes LONG, someone else SHORTS

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 10:27 AM
John,
Just WHO is feeding you that opinion?

Do you have any idea how the WORLDS Commodities Futures Markets worK ??
Yes, I understand those markets very well.
Why don't you give us a history lesson in the advantages and risks of leverage.

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 10:28 AM
PEB,
EVERY time someone goes LONG, someone else SHORTS
That should read "someone else SELLS".

Shorting is entirely different. A typo, I'm sure Gary.

Gary E
05-22-2008, 10:31 AM
Not a typo.. I said zactly whut I meant

A SHORT.. turns into a Sale, IF and when the deal is delivered

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 10:32 AM
"I said zactly whut I meant"

Never mind.

peb
05-22-2008, 11:14 AM
PEB,
EVERY time someone goes LONG, someone else SHORTS

Anytime someone shorts, someone goes long (they are selling shares to someone). But the inverse is not true, if I go long, I simply bought shares from someone who sold, they very well owned the shares and did not short.
But my point is not that shorting necessarily drives up a market, if done wholesale it can do the opposite. But the dynamics are such that when a lot of people short at the same time, a squeeze seems to often follow.

Gary E
05-22-2008, 11:49 AM
PEB,

if I go long, I simply bought shares from someone who sold, they very well owned the shares and did not short
What you said about STOCKS.. is usually true, but not always...

For example... youbuy, you think the broker took the shares he bought from someone else and delivered them to you.. most of the time that is the way it happens, butnot always... Most often at the open after a good earnings announcement the prior day, there will be a ton of people who want to buy... But, those who own it dont want to sell... What happens now?.. The broker shorts it to you...then drives the stock price lower where he covers his shorts from the buyers that dont like the stock anymore...remember, they know where the "stops" are..


Anyway, it's fools game to base trading on any of these "but it oughta do this cuz....." cockamayme ideas.
The price of oil, wheat, corn... or even jellybeans is what it is, and no amout of tinkering with the market or how it's traded will lower the prices.

Trade the futures sometime, it's fun and profitable.

Canoez
05-22-2008, 11:52 AM
ACB - 1.22? You must be close (or in) London?

Yesterday's email from my FIL in the UK:

Nearly 60 to fill the car now with petrol at 1.12 a litre. Sad isn't it?

http://i25.tinypic.com/dlkvmf.gif

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-22-2008, 12:03 PM
Like the cartoon!

Yes, that was outside Ipswich on the A12 -for diesel. Gasoline would indeed be around 1.12 / litre

I heard a report of diesel being priced at 1. 37 / litre in Stornoway.

Thorne
05-22-2008, 12:25 PM
Wife told me about "Splash and Dash" last night -- very interesting! Explains a lot about why diesel is so high here in the US.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MmI3MDVjOGEwYWMxN2Y3ODZmYWJjNjk0YjAxNTI3M2E=

http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=1863

http://www.greenbang.com/?s=splash+and+dash

The “splash and dash” scam involves shipping biodiesel from Europe to the US where a dash of fuel is added, allowing traders to claim 11p a litre of US subsidy for the entire cargo. It is then shipped back and sold below domestic prices, undercutting Europe’s biofuel industry.
The trade is not illegal, but flouts the spirit of producing green fuel by transporting it needlessly across the Atlantic at a time when campaigners are voicing concern about emissions from global shipping.
The EU is being urged to take action to stop a biofuel trading scam that exploits US agricultural subsidies and undermines the fight against global warming.
Up to 10% of biofuel exports from the US to Europe are believed to be part of the rogue scheme reaping big profits for agricultural trading firms.

Canoez
05-22-2008, 12:26 PM
We try to get a diesel when we rent a car in the UK - the better fuel economy makes the driving a bit cheaper even if the fuel costs more...

Not long after my daughter was born, my In-laws came over to visit us. We decided (this was in '99) to take a trip down to visit family in Maryland - about a 7 hour drive in the VW Passat I had at the time. My FIL offered to buy fuel for half of the trip. I paid on the ride down and he hadn't been paying attention to fuel costs. On the ride back up, we stopped to fill the car in NJ. It was probably around $18 to fill the tank at the time - I don't recall - felt expensive to me. When he saw the price, I can't say as I've ever seen someone so happy to be paying such a price for gas as he was!

Andrew Craig-Bennett
05-22-2008, 12:35 PM
Wife told me about "Splash and Dash" last night -- very interesting! Explains a lot about why diesel is so high here in the US.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MmI3MDVjOGEwYWMxN2Y3ODZmYWJjNjk0YjAxNTI3M2E=

http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=1863

http://www.greenbang.com/?s=splash+and+dash

The “splash and dash” scam involves shipping biodiesel from Europe to the US where a dash of fuel is added, allowing traders to claim 11p a litre of US subsidy for the entire cargo. It is then shipped back and sold below domestic prices, undercutting Europe’s biofuel industry.
The trade is not illegal, but flouts the spirit of producing green fuel by transporting it needlessly across the Atlantic at a time when campaigners are voicing concern about emissions from global shipping.
The EU is being urged to take action to stop a biofuel trading scam that exploits US agricultural subsidies and undermines the fight against global warming.
Up to 10% of biofuel exports from the US to Europe are believed to be part of the rogue scheme reaping big profits for agricultural trading firms.

Thanks.

From the first of those articles:

“Just think of it,” said Shadegg. “If I produce biodiesel anywhere in the world where the cost of shipping it to the United States before shipping it to the end consumer is less than a dollar a gallon, then I’m going to take advantage of this subsidy.”

That is, in fact, anywhere in the world. A dollar a gallon would be an humungous freight rate. The refined products tanker industry has been getting mighty excited about biofuels, and now you can see why...

Generally, these scams are more frequent in the planned economies...

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 12:45 PM
For example... youbuy, you think the broker took the shares he bought from someone else and delivered them to you.. most of the time that is the way it happens, butnot always... Most often at the open after a good earnings announcement the prior day, there will be a ton of people who want to buy... But, those who own it dont want to sell... What happens now?.. The broker shorts it to you...then drives the stock price lower where he covers his shorts from the buyers that dont like the stock anymore...remember, they know where the "stops" are..

You're WAY off. You have no idea how transactions are conducted.

LeeG
05-22-2008, 01:01 PM
I saw a listing if the COST of the gas and the TAXes you pay...

YOU HAVE A TAX PROBLEM


the cost of energy really does involve,,the cost of energy.


We have a disconnect from reality problem. The US military presence in the middle east is a cost to secure a steady flow of oil that is not reflected at the pump.

Would you like to see the cost of gas to reflect that presence or do you want the subsidized lunch to continue?

Gary E
05-22-2008, 01:13 PM
You're WAY off. You have no idea how transactions are conducted.

Ohh???.. then YOU tellus how it works

While your at it... Explain SHORT INTEREST and what it is...and how it's created

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 01:29 PM
Listed stocks (NYSE) are matched, buys to sells and sells to buys, by computer on the floor of the exchange. If one side overwhelms the other, buy or sell, the assigned specialist for the stock is required to use stock from his own account to meet the trades. For non-listed stocks, market makers fill the role of specialists except they are not required to trade from their own accounts.

A short sale is an entirely different type transaction. Stock is borrowed, literally and physically borrowed by one investor from another, and then it is sold in a conventional sell transaction. When it is bought back, again in a conventional buy transaction, it is returned to the lender and the transaction is complete.

Gary E
05-22-2008, 01:32 PM
In a perfict world it does work that way..
If you think that's the only way it happens, you live in fantacyland

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 01:49 PM
I actually live in Phoenix. As to a perfect world... that's the way it's been done every time I've been on the floor of the NYSE and at all the trading desks of several firms I've visited and every long and short trade I've ever done. Which is a substantial number. It's not perfect, but at least it’s consistent.

Short interest is the amount of shares that have been sold short, generally expressed in the number of days of normal trading volume to cover the shorts or as a percent of shares outstanding.

If your statement is true, "EVERY time someone goes LONG, someone else SHORTS", then the short interest for every stock would be 100%, which even you know isn't correct.

Now a question for you; what does knowing the definition of short interest have to do with knowing how a short transaction is conducted?

Gary E
05-22-2008, 01:57 PM
If your statement is true, "EVERY time someone goes LONG, someone else SHORTS", then the short interest for every stock would be 100%, which even you know isn't correct.



That was describing FUTURES trading... not stock trading

You have described the textbook definition of short Interest in the STOCK MARKET... does not apply to the futures mkts...
and that's not the only way it happens..

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 02:04 PM
You're still wrong. Think about the guy who actually owns the commodity.

I hate to repeat myself but...
Now a question for you; what does knowing the definition of short interest have to do with knowing how a short transaction is conducted?

Gary E
05-22-2008, 02:10 PM
It's still NOT a sale until he is ASSIGNED or actually delivers

You're happy knowing what you know...but theere are other ways SHORT INTEREST is created and since the general public is usually never short anything, it's not really important.

George Roberts
05-22-2008, 02:12 PM
This stuff about short selling needs some clarification ---

In any sale there is a buyer and seller and stock trades hands.

In a short sale the seller borrows stock from a stock owner with a promise to replace the shares at a later time. The borrower pays a fee (interest) for the loan of the shares.

In any case, in a short sale as in a normal sale shares trade hands. BUT the seller has an obligation to replace the shares he borrowed and to pay interest until he does so. Losses are not limited for the borrower of shares.

You should read the document that allows your broker to loan your shares to others. The broker makes money. You might make money.

---

In futures trades the buyer agrees to take delivery of a commodity on a certain date at a certain place. The Seller agrees to deliver the commodity on that date at that place.

Never get caught holding a futures contract unless you have the commodity on hand or want to take delivery. (Dobby Gillis took delivery of a contract of eggs once.)

LeeG
05-22-2008, 02:13 PM
GaryE, you say those in other countries with higher cost gas have a tax problem. Would you like the gas we burn to reflect the military cost of our operations in the middle east or should we try and maintain the lowest cost possible for transportation fuels?

Gary E
05-22-2008, 02:18 PM
It's not wether I'd like or not... you and I have NO choise in the matter, and can do NOTHING to change it.
Whut is..IS.. or are you some lib trying to design a purrrfick world?

George Roberts
05-22-2008, 02:19 PM
"maintain the lowest cost possible for transportation fuels?"

The way to do that is to raise prices so that demand falls. A large tax, I suggested $5/gallon a long time ago, perhaps 200% on each barrel would certainly cut demand.

Taxation on oil can replace other taxes which means that any reduction in oil prices goes to pay US obligations rather than to oil producers. The taxpayer here is left in the same situation - after tax income-wise. (well not those who oil stocks)

Leon m
05-22-2008, 02:29 PM
This aint gunna be good for the price of cheese...better stock up...don't worry ,it keeps well.

LeeG
05-22-2008, 02:43 PM
It's not wether I'd like or not... you and I have NO choise in the matter, and can do NOTHING to change it.
Whut is..IS.. or are you some lib trying to design a purrrfick world?


those people with a "tax problem" chose that tax. We chose a particular tax for our purrrrfick world.

We can do nothing to change the cost of oil/gas as it's beyond our control. What I'm asking you is the intention of your comment. It appears to imply that high taxes are a problem.

Are high taxes a problem for those with 40mpg cars? From what I can see their standard of living isn't too bad.

Cons and libs live in the same world. Seems to me we better start preparing for higher cost oil,,or are you some kind of con?

Gary E
05-22-2008, 02:59 PM
What I'm asking you is the intention of your comment. It appears to imply that high taxes are a problem. Those with high per liter costs complain about it, usually those in Europe or the UK.... I only point out that the FUEL costs aprox the SAME...as the CRUDE cost is EXACTLY the same and their higher taxes make it seem that they are paying more for the GAS, they're not... FIX the tax problem.


Are high taxes a problem for those with 40mpg cars? From what I can see their standard of living isn't too bad.
I have no idea about their 40 mpg or their standard of living...


Cons and libs live in the same world. Seems to me we better start preparing for higher cost oil,,or are you some kind of con?
Sure we should prepare... DRILL in ANWAR... OFFshore FLA... in your back yard if it's there... but to blame Big oil companies or the trading of futures contracts on NYMEX is total horsesh!t...

High C
05-22-2008, 03:08 PM
....It appears to imply that high taxes are a problem.....Cons and libs live in the same world....

I think not! :p

John of Phoenix
05-22-2008, 03:24 PM
God forbid we look at alternatives. Solar, wind, tidal.

I'm always surprised that conservative religious folks don't use the argument that alternative sources are the gifts of God.
Clean, renewable and free - literally heaven sent.
Oil on the other hand is smelly, dirty, ugly and comes from the bowels of hell itself - probably Satan's toe jam.

Halleluiah, can I get an "Amen"?

LeeG
05-22-2008, 03:37 PM
Those with high per liter costs complain about it, usually those in Europe or the UK.... I only point out that the FUEL costs aprox the SAME...as the CRUDE cost is EXACTLY the same and their higher taxes make it seem that they are paying more for the GAS, they're not... FIX the tax problem.


I have no idea about their 40 mpg or their standard of living...


Sure we should prepare... DRILL in ANWAR... OFFshore FLA... in your back yard if it's there... but to blame Big oil companies or the trading of futures contracts on NYMEX is total horsesh!t...

why do you call their higher taxes a problem?

European countries increased taxes after the price shocks of the 70's. We didn't as much. They have higher mileage cars, we don't. We depend more on liquid fuels for transportation than they do. We are less prepared for what's happening NOW. The longer we wait, the harder the adjustment is.
Looks like Detroit is screwed. Oh well.
I'm not blaming big oil, I happen to like big oil. Big oil delivers me oil and wealth. What's not to like?

You are a bit ignorant about the utility of drilling in Anwar. It's a good thing for those drilling for oil and those whose land the drilling is on. But it won't do squat to lower prices. Sure, drill in Anwar, China and India need the oil.

LeeG
05-22-2008, 03:39 PM
I think not! :p

have something to say?

seanz
05-22-2008, 06:44 PM
Today I paid $1.37 a liter for regular or $5.18 a US gal. There are a lot of power boats going up for sale locally this season.

$1.37?
That's soooo 2006.
:p
We just hit $2.00 a liter here
:(

Chris Coose
05-22-2008, 06:59 PM
Oil on the other hand is smelly, dirty, ugly and comes from the bowels of hell itself - probably Satan's toe jam.

Halleluiah, can I get an "Amen"?


AMEN Teets.
Smelly, dirty and ugly but it is also a God gift that is about 6,000 years old.
God seperated the dinasours from us only to provide the black gold.
He just gave most of it to them other Abrahamists with the sand and turbins.
More shall be revealed in His plan.
That is why we need to vote Republican. Them guys are lots closer to the plan than the usefull idiot liberals.

TimH
05-22-2008, 09:25 PM
everyone knows it will be $10 gallon before summer is over.

Rigadog
05-24-2008, 05:55 AM
I'm digging a big underground tank under our house and as soon as gas comes down to $1.50 again, I'm filling it up.:D