View Full Version : $12-$15/gal gas

05-20-2008, 07:44 PM
Hirsch of the '95 Hirsch report says that'll be the price followed by rationing. Doesn't say when. But isn't it a nice feeling to think these are the good times of low price oil?


HOST: Dr. Hirsch, there are a lot of people when we talk about peak oil who say there are going to be technologies that are always developed. There will be new ways to get oil, whether it's from coal, whether it's from the oil shales, and they say that means we will never actually hit peak oil. What do you say to those people?

HIRSCH: They're incorrect, and the reason that they're incorrect is that they don't understand the magnitude of the problem and how long it's going to take to bring substitute liquid fuels on and to introduce energy efficiency on a massive scale. That's something that we analyzed and it takes decades. And the reason, simply, is that the magnitude of the problem is enormous.

[McTeer says we should drill more.]

HOST: Dr. Hirsch, what do you say to that--the idea that we should be drilling in places like ANWR and drilling offshore. Would that solve this problem of a plateau in oil production?

HIRSCH: There's no single thing that's going to solve this problem because it's as massive as one can possibly imagine. And the prices that we're paying at the pump today I think are going to be the good old days because others who watch this very closely forecast that we are going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon. And then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing. In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, in addition to that, we're not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.

05-20-2008, 09:01 PM

L.W. Baxter
05-20-2008, 11:03 PM
Here is a graph showing the cost of a barrel of oil compared to the cost of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S.A.


The recent intersection at $40/barrel = $2.00/gallon would seem to suggest that $12/gallon gasoline would stem from a crude oil price in the vicinity of $240/barrel. I suppose that is bound to happen someday, the question is, when?

I don't think it will happen in the next ten years.

05-20-2008, 11:51 PM
2 to 3 years ?

The Bigfella
05-21-2008, 01:12 AM
So what - we'll deal with it when and if it happens. Its called adapting to the circumstances. Our grandparents adapted to the change from horses to cars, our children may adapt to horses again.

05-21-2008, 03:06 AM
True ,we won't enjoy adapting to food at x3 the price ,as well .