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Leon m
03-06-2008, 04:25 PM
Word on the street is lumber prices are going down. I haven't noticed it around here much yet. The good news is this will help me finish up my sailbaot this summer. The bad news is I am planning a timber sale in the school forest for next winter.

My question is: What are wood prices doing in your neck of the woods, and whats the local chatter about the futurere of lumber ?

Leon m
03-07-2008, 11:08 AM
Wow, hard to believe no one at the WOODEN boat site would have any information about current wood prices.

Alexander2
03-07-2008, 11:28 AM
The timber industry as a whole in the midwest is in a slump. The pulp market in particular with some mills closing, some shutting down papermachines and some buying pulp from South America.
The chip market is weak with one chipboard plant in NE. Minnesota closed down and the Louisiana Pacific mill in N. Wi. slow.
Except for niches the sawlog markets are weak as well.
In order to be competive loggers need to put out big production with large expensive machinery. Many can't get financed, many of those who can are reluctant to invest hundreds of thousands in a market where there is little profit after expenses and no telling when it will get better.
Next years stumpage market is forecast to remain weak.
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Acoording to my business contact in The U.P.

Leon m
03-07-2008, 11:34 AM
Great report...Thanks !

Leon m
03-07-2008, 11:40 AM
What about mixed hardwoods in particular ?

Alexander2
03-07-2008, 11:40 AM
He just send an addendum,
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Tell the man to consult with a forester if he is not already doing so. The ones here are counseling timber owners to hold off on sales if they can.
The market will come back, the 64 dollar question is when.
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Good luck.
Are you in the part of the state that had the record snowfall?

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He says mixed hardwoods market is generally poor but it depends on the "mix" and local niche markets.

Leon m
03-07-2008, 11:42 AM
He just send an addendum,
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The market will come back, the 64 dollar question is when.
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Good luck.
Are you in the part of the state that had the record snowfall?

yes we are in the part of the state that had the record snowfall...92" and counting.

Do you think it would be wise to try and get off a sale before the prices go a lot lower ?

Miami Mike
03-07-2008, 11:50 AM
Hey Leon,

Maybe some more info would yield some informed responses. What type of lumber?

In general....

Here's my thoughts in kiln dried woods:

US hard maple down
US soft maple steady
US red oak down
US white oak up
US poplar steady to down
US ash down
US cherry steady to up
US west coast softwoods (cedar, fir, spruce etc.) up slightly

Canadian Maple up (exchange rate)
Canadian Birch up """"""""""""""""""""""
Canadian softwoods up """"""""""""""" (when there's no embargo, lol)

South American genuine mahogany up (somewhat due to CITIES agreement)
South American Jatoba (Brazillian CHerry) up (Demand)
South American Spanish Cedar steady

African Mahogany (Khaya etc.) up (falling dollar & demand)
Sapele up (falling dollar and increased demand due to current S.American mahogany issues)

Asian teak up and going higher (changing goverment regulations)

I have no idea about log prices nor air dired (boat building lumber). Prices change on times of year, area of the country and other variables. Hope this helps.

Mike

Alexander2
03-07-2008, 11:57 AM
He said,
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In general the market can't get much lower and remain a market.
Loggers that are operating are just living on cash flow hoping for profit in the future but with mixed hardwoods he really needs to get local advice.
And... tell him if I answer any more questions I'll expect him to come up to Escanaba and buy lunch! :)
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Yeah hey Leon, he tells me the pasties up there are delicious,it might be worth the trip eh?

[Thats U.P. Finn speak.]

Leon m
03-07-2008, 02:56 PM
He said,
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And... tell him if I answer any more questions I'll expect him to come up to Escanaba and buy lunch! :)
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Yeah hey Leon, he tells me the pasties up there are delicious,it might be worth the trip eh?

[Thats U.P. Finn speak.]

BIG THANKS to your U.P. buddy !!! we might be up that way in a few months...and I love Pasties...That info was definetly worth a couple of Pasties eh?

And a big thanks to you for your trouble.

Alexander2
03-07-2008, 03:21 PM
You're welcome Leon. I was pleased to be the intermediary.
It lead to a nice conversation with him later in the day. Interesting guy.
He facilitates financing and consults on unique and ultra high value pieces of real estate. In his part of the world that means he needs to know people who know about values of large timber tracts. Sometimes for industrial logging, sometimes high value vacation properties, sometimes estate or retirement planning.
He is frequently called in to consult all over the norther tier of states [what he is doing today] with tax planners, real estate folks and legal professionals.
Some great stories about family feuds where one member wants to never have one tree cut, one wants a well planned sustainable harvest and the third says, "Lets clear cut it, sell the bare ground and divvy up the money".
He told me today there are days when he wished he had apprenticed as a lion tamer. :)