View Full Version : another oil exec. opines

01-31-2008, 08:07 PM
gee, maybe this is something worth preparing for, nahhhh


MARK COLVIN: Meanwhile, 'peak oil' - the idea that the world's supplies of oil have either peaked or will soon start declining, has suddenly gained new respectability.

It's been derided by the big oil companies for years, but at the end of last week came a turnabout.

The Chief Executive of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer put out a paper on Friday forecasting the end of easy oil.

Mr Van der Veer said the result could be a worldwide scramble to mitigate climate change.

Dr Jim Buckee has just retired as President and CEO of Talisman Energy, a major independent Canadian oil company with a market capitalisation of $25-billion.

On the phone from Perth, Dr Buckee told me that 'peak oil' was now either here, or very close.

JIM BUCKEE: I don't think that really we've seen any rationing of consumption by price. We did see it in '79, '80 and that was largely because of the sudden quadrupling of the price of oil. Now we've seen a relatively gentle approach and people have accommodated it.

So I would say you need to see oil in the $150, $200 a barrel range before it would have any particular impact on demand.

MARK COLVIN: When do you think we'll reach that?

JIM BUCKEE: The situation is always very tight in the fourth quarter because Northern Hemisphere demand increases; it's the sort of highest quarter for demands. So I'd say we'll see stress again in the third and fourth quarter of 08.

MARK COLVIN: Do you think it'll get to $150, 200 by then?

JIM BUCKEE: I think that's the number that's required to ration demand and I'd say so yes.