View Full Version : Is the China Bubble popping?

01-28-2008, 11:30 PM

Michael Beckman
01-28-2008, 11:52 PM
empty thread?

01-29-2008, 12:28 AM
empty thread?

While you wait...............


01-29-2008, 12:29 AM
its a graph from Minyanville.com showing a pattern of 4 bubbles... almost frightful in identical magnitude of each move both in the peaks (for all 4) and eventual falls (for the first 3, one to go)

First bubble, Japan (Nikkei) - orange
Second bubble, Nasdaq - yellow
Third bubble, home builder index - white
Fourth, Shanghai index - green

Paul Girouard
01-29-2008, 12:37 AM
To bad the graph doesn't show :rolleyes:, I'd be a lot more scared if it did. :eek:

They will one day own us , hope they're nice folks , or that I'm dead and buried before it happens :D

I wonder if a Chinese brother in law will be helpful :confused: Or should that be Chink , ya know , to shorten it like Tim for Timothy :confused: Saves two letters :DWoo Hoo !

Vince Brennan
01-29-2008, 12:38 AM
Didn't show up here, Tim. Link?

01-29-2008, 12:47 AM

does this work?

SaltyD from BC
01-29-2008, 12:52 AM
Or should that be Chink , ya know , to shorten it

Brilliant.:rolleyes: But this shortening thing has its merits...

Paul Girouard
01-29-2008, 12:52 AM

There it's like looking at the whole Chinese army coming at ya :rolleyes:

Doesn't do much for me really:rolleyes:

Paul Girouard
01-29-2008, 12:56 AM
Brilliant.:rolleyes: But this shortening thing has its merits...

Thanks just ask the Aussie , they use a lot of shortings. You'd have to have followed another thread about a week ago to see my meaning. TimH knows what I'm saying or at least the thread , we didn't agree then and MTL don't agree about it now either. Eh ya Nob , ya know what I'm saying eh:confused::D

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-29-2008, 05:39 AM
What the dedicated chartist will observe is the identical shape of the first and second dead cat bounce, in each case.

There is no doubt at all that Shanghai was humungously overvalued (PetroChina is not worth twice Exxon-Mobil!) and is correcting.

The Ministry of Truth has ingeniously linked this to the misfortunes of SG.

The fact that SG had no position on Shanghai will pass un-noticed.

01-29-2008, 06:23 AM
Good Morning, Andrew:)

I've recently been watching the Baltic Dry Index fall off the cliff....any opinion if this means a serious world-wide recession or worse?




Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-29-2008, 06:41 AM
More of a correction to a very silly bubble, at this stage.

Dry market physically ought to be OK for 2008; the new ordering really kicks in in 2009/10, as shipyards prefer to build anything other than a dry bulker (the value added by the yard is maybe 20% for a dry bulker, it is better for any other type of ship).

Andrew Craig-Bennett
01-29-2008, 06:59 AM
I ought to expand on that:

The dry bulk market consists of the three major bulks - iron ore, coal and grain, plus the minor bulks from sugar to soya via bauxite.

The major bulks are what drive the index, espescially the first two. The market is being driven by shortage of ships to match Chinese iron ore and coal imports. This is structural and reflects Chinese expansion in steel production. Ore is bought on annual take or pay contracts so the demand side will not quickly reflect economic conditions.

Containers track the economy faster - we and our rivals all switched our big ships off the US run and onto Europe during last year as consumer demand weakened.

Interestingly, we are seeing piles of steel products such as pipe building up around discharge ports, reflecting weakening housing starts, and espescially weaking commercial property starts.

Hope that helps.

01-29-2008, 07:41 AM
Yes, it does!

Is there any publicly available index that tracks containers worldwide that I can watch to determine if the US problems are contagious to the rest of the world?

I suppose watching the world-wide indices of non-US financial markets is somewhat useful, but they seem "too nervous" to reflect actual economic conditions.

01-29-2008, 08:17 AM
The Ilha Grande shipping index, defined as the number of ships I see going in and out of port, is rising very rapidly. The two main ports accessible through our bay are an ore terminal and a container port. Most ships transit to and from Europe and China. Decoupling, it seems.

01-29-2008, 09:55 AM
Did anyone else notice that the author of the chart has manipulated the scales of the four verticle indices in order that the graphs would match in magnitude?

I especially like the white graph representing the Home Builder Index, it's been stretched by a factor of 5.