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Spin_Drift
12-19-2007, 05:42 PM
....Asked whether the economy will tip into a recession — something that has not happened since 2001 — Greenspan said, “It’s too soon to say, but the odds are clearly rising.”



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22251269/

He said he felt this way because of the slowing pace of growth. “We are getting close to stall speed,” he said. “We are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise,” he added. “Indeed, it’s like someone who has an immune system that’s not working very well is subject to all sorts of diseases and the economy at this lever of growth is subject to all sorts of shocks.”

Peter Malcolm Jardine
12-19-2007, 05:45 PM
I'm sure you're mistaken... The President says everything is going well, and the economy is booming:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Vince Brennan
12-19-2007, 06:07 PM
Stay in Finland. This place is gonna go *pop* all of a sudden.

paladin
12-19-2007, 07:54 PM
damn...I may have to move back to the Rez......or go sailing again.....

Nanoose
12-20-2007, 12:57 AM
Yup. It's all gonna go to hell in a hand basket...we just don't know when.

The banks'll start callin in the loans, and the current US debt will be the sinker, for all of us.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 07:06 AM
At some point we have to see the storm clouds coming and head for the shelters.
Their are some exceptional minds here on the forum. Instead of arguing if, why what and when. Lets discuss strategy's we could use to weather it.

bob winter
12-20-2007, 07:26 AM
I see in the paper that US forclosures were up 68% in November over the rate a year ago. This can't be a good sign. If Greenspan is worried, I am worried.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 07:29 AM
The ever an Idiot Glenn beck and Mad Cramer were on together last night.
They had a lot to say, none of it good.

shamus
12-20-2007, 07:29 AM
I think if you really suspect this will snowball in to a deep recession, the idea is to hold only useful physical assets (sell superfluous assets now) hold cash (and possibly gold). If it is not possible to eliminate debt, accumulate cash reserves to service it, while repaying at the minimum level. I only mention this because some people try too hard to reduce debt, and run into cash shortage while doing it.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 08:00 AM
I don't owe nobody nothing, thats a start and about all I could do.

Spin_Drift
12-20-2007, 11:35 AM
At some point we have to see the storm clouds coming and head for the shelters.
Their are some exceptional minds here on the forum. Instead of arguing if, why what and when. Lets discuss strategy's we could use to weather it.

Well, I would think that elimination of all debts would be good.

Get rid of your paper money as it's really not worth but the paper and the ink it's printed with. Keep small amounts that can be used as you go along but trade it to Krugerrands which is easily recognizable as gold.

Have easily tradeble, desirable items that you can trade for things you need.

Then, I guess the needs differ depending of if you are in the city or in the country.

Here in the country you can stock up on ammunition so you can kill your own food.

Have a large supply of grain and a "hand mill" so you can grind it even without electricity if nesessary.

All kinds of dry goods in 50 gal drums. Dry yeast for baking... Toilet paper, everyday stuff you need to run the house...

(Maybe I'm thinking of an extreme situation... )

Keep some chickens and a couple of roosters so you can have eggs and hatch more chickens...

Warm, durable clothes... Bicycles... extra chains etc... Underground gas tank 500 or 1000 gallons full of fuel. Economical automobile or a motorcycle.

Big stack of wood and tools and spare parts to get more... Fuel...Lighters... oil lamps, candles... etc.

What do you think? I'm sure the list could be quite long...

MARK would know... Let's hear what he has to say. I trust his knowledge and judgment on these things.

I see that some people make slight of what he says and some people who "bury their heads in the sand" so to say and think everything is as we are told and made to believe... (Like Boxer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_%28Animal_Farm%29), a Clydesdale horse who is one of the main characters in George Orwell's Animal Farm.)

You might also check out an interesting book; Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four. It describes actions and organizations characteristic the totalitarian society depicted in the novel, and the phrase "Big Brother is watching you" refers to invasive surveillance. We have been heading that direction for many years now...

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 11:44 AM
Jeez louise... ya THINK? :p

Well, who knows... maybe I will some day be proved foolish, but I don't do any of those things, and I'm not frightened of such a possibility. I think the entire structure of society nowadays is such that the kind of apocalypse you infer can't happen. Sure, we can have deep, long recessions.... but people will always have to eat, be clothed, and housed, and those requirements guarantee that there will always be some level of commerce... and society would recover, if it were to happen.

Of course, having gold kruggerrands isn't going to help. What's gold worth? Not a damn thing, if you can't eat it, wear it, or take shelter under it.

One word I guaranty you will choke on Norman. Roundup.
Look it up, be careful though the rabbit hole runs deep.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 11:54 AM
MARK would know... Let's hear what he has to say. I trust his knowledge and judgment on these things.



In a nutshell, trust to your instincts before anything else. I am not a big faith guy but every time I have been in a bad situation instinct has saved me.
I think we cannot think our way out of this one, not for a while at least. If you have limited survival type skillsets stay close to family and friends. But if the wind is cold on you neck be ready to fly.
Just make sure before anything else have one sharp knife and means to make fire.
That and don't believe much of Bear Brill, the man is an idiot.

Spin_Drift
12-20-2007, 11:57 AM
Their are some exceptional minds here on the forum. Instead of arguing if, why what and when. Lets discuss strategy's we could use to weather it.

Mark, how about some input on strategy to weather it... :D


One word I guaranty you will choke on Norman. Roundup.
Look it up, be careful though the rabbit hole runs deep.

I see things between you two are not good but maybe a better man will try to go forward without the antagonism...

:) is better :D

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 12:02 PM
Mark, how about some input on strategy to weather it... :D
Best advice I have is above. I would like it if some of the real smart people here would have some input along those lines. Even if it isn't needed there are a good many things that could be learned.




I see things between you two are not good but maybe the better man will try to go forward without the antagonism...

:) is better :D

Called for a time out or at least some distance. I will stay out of your yard, you stay out of mine. Hasn't happened so I will not lie down. I think it has more to do with my message than anything else.

Spin_Drift
12-20-2007, 12:11 PM
Best advice I have is above. I would like it if some of the real smart people here would have some input along those lines. Even if it isn't needed there are a good many things that could be learned.

Called for a time out or at least some distance. I will stay out of your yard, you stay out of mine. Hasn't happened so I will not lie down. I think it has more to do with my message than anything else.

OK, I understand and that's about all you can do :)... I'll stay out of that...

I think your posts are interesting and informative...

Memphis Mike
12-20-2007, 12:17 PM
Jesus will save us. He is coming. It might be today.

Kaa
12-20-2007, 12:22 PM
Mark, how about some input on strategy to weather it...

What exactly is "it"?

Against precisely which threat are you trying to take precautions?

Kaa

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 12:38 PM
What exactly is "it"?

Against precisely which threat are you trying to take precautions?

Kaa

I think it has something to do with the thread title and the worst case scenario. In the military one is considered an idiot not to consider worst case scenario but here on the dishrag side of logic it is considered bad form.

I will stick with "hope for the best but plan for the worst"
I think history is on my side once again.

John of Phoenix
12-20-2007, 12:38 PM
"I smell a tax cut." - Norm Messinger

Kaa
12-20-2007, 12:40 PM
I think it has something to do with the thread title and the worst case scenario.

Well, what is the worst case scenario? Define and describe it, please.

Kaa

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 12:52 PM
Well, what is the worst case scenario? Define and describe it, please.

Kaa

You go to the store, they are out of astroglide because the company folded because of a huge debt burden.
You are forced to go to the hang out unprepared.

That alone should scare the hell out of most neocon republicans.

Kaa
12-20-2007, 12:58 PM
You go to the store, they are out of astroglide because the company folded because of a huge debt burden.
You are forced to go to the hang out unprepared.

That alone should scare the hell out of most neocon republicans.

And it's the worst-case scenario for YOU, right? :D :D :D

Kaa

Spin_Drift
12-20-2007, 01:15 PM
I think the worst case scenario would be a heavy, long lasting economic depression which would lead to a devastating breakdown of an economy, - an economic collapse.

You know, like the last great depression what people waited for days to get their money from the banks and when the banks finally opened their doors, people got about .10 cents on their dollar... and the prices were sky high...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

People pulling their moneys out of banks causing the banks to collapse.. No work, no money, etc. etc...(the stuff that follows that)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

I'm not saying that it will happen, but I think it would be the worst case scenario... I don't know what others would consider the worst... Please enlighten me... What do you think it would be...

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 01:15 PM
And it's the worst-case scenario for YOU, right? :D :D :D

Kaa

According to my sources neither aids or supplements are required.http://www.woodenboatvb.com/vbulletin/upload/images/icons/icon12.gif

peb
12-20-2007, 01:27 PM
Jeez louise... ya THINK? :p

Well, who knows... maybe I will some day be proved foolish, but I don't do any of those things, and I'm not frightened of such a possibility. I think the entire structure of society nowadays is such that the kind of apocalypse you infer can't happen. Sure, we can have deep, long recessions.... but people will always have to eat, be clothed, and housed, and those requirements guarantee that there will always be some level of commerce... and society would recover, if it were to happen.

Of course, having gold kruggerrands isn't going to help. What's gold worth? Not a damn thing, if you can't eat it, wear it, or take shelter under it.

At your age, you are probably safe not doing any of these things. But to say that a economic disaster cannot happen any longer is simply foolish, IMO. It happens. It happened in parts of the US during the civil war and across the US during the great depression. It happened in Germany twice within a 25 year span. It happened in Russia in 1917. It happened in Spain in the 1930s. It happened in Japan during WWII. The list could go on and on. Of course, most of the time, it is due to a war or a revolution or other type of non-economic event. But it does happen.

To say these events cannot happen is to express the belief that we as a society have progressed to a point to where we are not capable of really messing things up. There is absolutely no evidence that this progression has taken place. You have a level of faith in our society that seems to contradict your agnostic tendencies, because this belief can be based on nothing but faith in some type of humanistic ideal.

Having some sort of insurance against these catastrophies is not a bad thing. Of course, what ever one chooses, there is no guarantee that it will work. The best insurance is probably what palidin expressed a few weeks ago, own some land that one can live off. Of course property rights don't always survive these events, but this technique has been successful before. Now this is not feasible for everyone, so perhaps some level of assets which are useful for barter is not a bad idea.

And your statement that gold is not worth a damn thing goes against all historical evidence and goes against the way gold is treated by our modern day financial system, which does not even rely on gold based currency. Gold has always been worth something. And it has really been worth a lot during the period of time I describe above. People say that gold is not worth anything do not understand basic human society. It seems almost impossible for a sizable society to function without some type of money. Barter cannot solve all needs of exchange. There has to be a means of exchange of goods and services, which is the definition of money. Gold seems to be, for whatever reason, the "natural" money to the human race.

In no way do I believe that our current economic problems are going to lead to this type of event. But you can always see the storm clouds on the horizon that could produce some really bad things. Most of the time, they don't. An current example would be the changing demographics across all industrial countries. We (and this will include China in 30 years) do not seem to have enough workers to support the aging population in 30 years or so. Combine this with a potential rapid spread of Islam into many of the western countries and it is possible an upheaval could occur that produces a economic event.


Just some of my weird thoughts.

edited to add:

Perhaps another example of a current storm cloud on the horizon which could lead to economic disaster (and which many here would agree) would be global warming.

And no, I am not a gold bug.

Kaa
12-20-2007, 01:27 PM
I think the worst case scenario would be a heavy, long lasting economic depression which would lead to a devastating breakdown of an economy, - an economic collapse.

An economic collapse happened in Soviet Union / Russia around 1990. I can assure you that having a knife and knowing how to hunt animals with traps were just as useless then as they were ten years before that, or ten years after.

Kaa

P.S. Looking at stock markets, Japan has been in long-term depression for the last 25 years or so. I don't think they're doing too badly.

peb
12-20-2007, 01:32 PM
An economic collapse happened in Soviet Union / Russia around 1990. I can assure you that having a knife and knowing how to hunt animals with traps were just as useless then as they were ten years before that, or ten years after.

Kaa

P.S. Looking at stock markets, Japan has been in long-term depression for the last 25 years or so. I don't think they're doing too badly.

Japan, has not been in a depression for 25 years or so. They have had slow growth, perhaps you could stretch and call it a 18 year recession, but certainly not a depression.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 01:35 PM
In both instances the world economy trundled on. What is or could be different this time is the whole of the markets worldwide are at risk.
Don't you guys read the papers?

Kaa
12-20-2007, 01:36 PM
Japan, has not been in a depression for 25 years or so. They have had slow growth, perhaps you could stretch and call it a 18 year recession, but certainly not a depression.

Yes, recession, not depression, I stand corrected.

Kaa

Bob Cleek
12-20-2007, 01:43 PM
They pay this guy money to come up with these insights?

Kaa
12-20-2007, 01:47 PM
In the apocalypse, anything you can't eat, wear, or shelter yourself with would be instantly worthless.

That runs counter to the thinking of a lot of people who contend that the most worthwhile thing in the apocalypse is a loaded gun. :D

Kaa

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 01:49 PM
Instinct is the first tool one needs in such a situation. Gun?
I can always get a gun. Just have to know how.

peb
12-20-2007, 01:53 PM
I didn't say that it was impossible for these things to happen... just that I thought it unlikely

Well you always accuse me of not reading your posts, this time, I don't think you know what you wrote:


I think the entire structure of society nowadays is such that the kind of apocalypse you infer can't happen.



I was reacting to Spin-Drift's posting, which posits something a lot closer to apocalypse than simply economic depression. In the apocalypse, anything you can't eat, wear, or shelter yourself with would be instantly worthless.
In previous apocalypse, gold has NEVER been instantly worthless. Quite the opposite. It was what (fortunate) people used to get buy.



It's terrific advice for the tiniest segment of the population. Tell that to some inner city dweller in the lowest or next to lowest quintile on the income/wealth scale. The number of people with the knowledge and ability and health to be able to 'live off the land' is but a tiny fraction of the population. Sure, if some apocalypse occurs, that tiny percentage will be easily able to survive... IF the rest of the population doesn't slaughter them for food... after some of them are killed off by the land-owner's guns.
It is possible for a lot larger segment of society than you think. At any rate, I acknowledge that it was not possible for all, so other forms of "insurance" might not be a bad idea.


As for recovery from such an event, it surprises me that I seem to be the only one here who actually believes in the miraculous power of the marketplace: this is pretty surprising, seeing that belief in commerce is the halmark of conservatives, not moderates or liberals.

If the event is purely economic, I agree with you. The financial system will continue to function, as it did in the 1930s, even though many securities become quite worthless. this does allow for the marketplace to recover more quickly.

It on the other hand, the event is not driven by economics, ie global warming or revolution, the result might be that your "marketplace" disappears.



I suspect that global warming, although accelerating rapidly (regardless of whether you believe it's a natural cycle or man-made) is happening slowly enough so that civilization can adapt to it. We might not LIKE the adaptations we'll be forced into, but I don't see it as being cataclysmic.

I agree, that is why I said that these storm clouds one sees, most of the time, do not produce the disastrous results many predict. Humans are very capable of adapting.

Kaa
12-20-2007, 01:59 PM
In the apocalyspe, Kaa, a loaded gun merely determines how many additional seconds you're going to live, before the rioting crowd kills you for everything you have. More ammo = more seconds.

Watch too many zombie movies lately? :D

Kaa

PatCox
12-20-2007, 02:03 PM
Greenspan is being used to break the news gently.

PatCox
12-20-2007, 02:07 PM
What do you do for stagflation, by the way? Seems then commodities and tangibles are the right option, but, and its a big but, only if the commodities are not at the time you want to invest in a boom; so real estate is out this time. And once people start jumping on gold because of the stagflation, it too starts to boom and when they get out it will bust. So, what then? I am going to invest in debt that I can repay with inflated dollars, myself.

peb
12-20-2007, 02:15 PM
However, I think you've made the same mistake here... there have been no previous apocalypses... if we assume the word to mean the complete breakdown of order and structure in civilization. In THAT case, gold is indeed worthless.


I was very clear, siting many examples, of the type of apocalypses that could occur and where having gold would be very useful.

But now you are suddenly using a literal definition of apocalypse, ie the end of human life as we have ever known it (which is what you say here). Of course this has not happened, but I don't thing the end of times is what tylerdurden was refefring to and it was definitely not what your original response to him referred to. You are changing definitions.


I don't think the marketplace EVER dissapears. Even at the height of violence and chaos in Iraq, shopkeepers would still open up their shops in Baghdad for as long as they could, whenever they could. Even insurgents planting roadside bombs have to stop and eat.

Of course not, that is why gold becomes valuable in these times.
But once again, you are changing scenarios in order to try to make your arguments consistent. Your use of the term marketplace which I was referring, in this post,:


I didn't say that it was impossible for these things to happen... just that I thought it unlikely. We DO learn, as a society, and there are safeguards against a huge economic collapse in place that didn't exist back when those events you cited occurred. These safeguards might not be totally and completely effective... but they would certainly diminish the severity and longevity of the impact.

As for recovery from such an event, it surprises me that I seem to be the only one here who actually believes in the miraculous power of the marketplace: this is pretty surprising, seeing that belief in commerce is the halmark of conservatives, not moderates or liberals.


is clearly using the term marketplace to refer to our modern financial system. These safeguards you are referring to are by no means in your example of Iraq. Stay on track Norman, don't switch meanings of terms.

BTW, I agree is that our modern financial system, ie our marketplace, is very resilient. Which is why tylerdurden's fear of our current economic troubles leading to doomsday is misplaced.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 02:20 PM
speaking of gold prices:

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif

From 1980 until the beginning of 2003 (23 years) gold went nowhere... what was the conmparable rate of inflation over that period?

How about comparing it to the stock market?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/images/djia1960t.png

And I thought the Village idiot was down the street?

Look at it this way Norman, The average Roman in his time could by a fine set of Armour for an ounce of gold.
Today a businessman can by a fine suit for that same oz. of gold.
Gold doesn't change value, markets do. That is how your getting ripped off, Gleefully I might add.
Inflation tax for dummies.

Like I said down the street.

George Jung
12-20-2007, 02:27 PM
I am going to invest in debt that I can repay with inflated dollars, myself.- PatCox

Personal, or commercial?

PatCox
12-20-2007, 02:37 PM
Personal. Best case scenario I will find it easy to pay my current mortgage three years from now when it takes a wheelbarrow full of Reichsmarks, I mean dollars, to buy a loaf of bread.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 04:03 PM
You just CAN'T respond to a single post of mine without making some sort of disparaging personal attack, can you?



You know the drill, hit the road.

Spin_Drift
12-20-2007, 05:33 PM
You know the drill, hit the road.

Just when this thread was getting good this kind of shyte gets here.

The intention of this rudeness is to hurt someone... :(

I won't tolerate this on my thread. It makes me feel sick to my stomach...:mad:

Memphis Mike
12-20-2007, 05:45 PM
"I won't tolerate this on my thread. It makes me feel sick to my stomach"...:mad:
__________________

Leave em alone. It's just startin to get good.

Tylerdurden
12-20-2007, 05:58 PM
Sorry spin, those are my restraint code words. I will not go further.