Tropical Storm/Hurricane Felix

[huisjen]

Tough year for the Yucatan.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0607W5_sm2+gif/144539W_sm.gif

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR
GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE
WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH
TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Mrleft8]

Just kicked the snot out of Tobago.

[JBreeze]

I hope it doesn't develop...those people don't need a one-two punch:(

Somewhat off-topic. I like the way the forecasters "sign" their forecasts...seems like there is a lot of personal pride in their work, rather than hiding behind a faceless agency. Someday I would like to have a beer with forecaster Avilla, as I'm sure there are a lot of good stories about the difficulties and successes in making a forecast. To me, they do a very important job.

[Milo Christensen]

It's a cat 1 hurricane already. That was really fast. It intensified a lot faster than the forecast Dan first posted.

[Mrleft8]

It's a cat 1 hurricane already. That was really fast. It intensified a lot faster than the forecast Dan first posted.

Kinda like Apalachian State....Eh? :D

[Steve Paskey]

Now a category 3 and still strengthening ... expected to make landfall in Belize on Wednesday as a category 4.

[katey]

Holy crap. This time yesterday it was a tropical storm. Now it's a Category 5.

[Concordia...41]

This just gets worse and worse. Fast :eek:

I would not want to be in Belize right now. :(

[Hwyl]

The ABC islands (Aruba Bonaire and Curacao) are considered to be South of the hurricane zone and therefore "hurricane safe", they got damage consistent with that belief

[Bruce Hooke]

Now it is looking like Honduras and maybe a bit of Nicaragua may take the brunt of the hurricane. God be with the people there...

[Mrleft8]

I'm rethinking my idea of going to Belize this winter....

[Hughman]

Take your barf bags along...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=776&tstamp=200709

Hurricane Hunters walloped by Felix
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft N42RF experienced a truly awesome and terrifying mission into the heart of Hurricane Felix last night. Flying at 10,000 feet through Felix at 7pm EDT last night, N42RF dropped a sonde into the southeast eyewall. The swirling winds of the storm were so powerful that the sonde spun a full 3/4 circle around the eye before splashing into the northwest eyewall. It is VERY rare for a sonde to make nearly a complete circle around the eye like this. As the plane entered the eye of the now Category 5 hurricane, they found a 17-mile wide stadium lit up by intense lightning on all sides. The pressure at the bottom of the eye had hit 934 mb, and the temperature outside, a balmy 77 degrees at 10,000 feet. This is about 24 degrees warmer than the atmosphere normally is at that altitude, and a phenomenally warm eye for a hurricane. N42RF then punched into the northwest eyewall. Flight level winds hit 175 mph, and small hail lashed the airplane as lighting continued to flash. Then, the crew hit what Hurricane Hunters fear most--a powerful updraft followed a few seconds later by an equally powerful downdraft. The resulting extreme turbulence and wind shear likely made the aircraft impossible to control. Four G's of acceleration battered the airplane, pushing the aircraft close to its design limit of 6 G's. Although no one was injured and no obvious damage to the airplane occurred, the aircraft commander wisely aborted the mission and N42RF returned safely to St. Croix. N42RF is the same aircraft that survived (http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp) a pounding of 5.6 g's in the eyewall of Hurricane Hugo in 1989. A special inspection of the aircraft is planned for today to determine if it is fit to fly further missions into Felix, and its scheduled afternoon flight into the hurricane was canceled. Hurricane Hunter missions since have fared better, and no more extreme turbulence has been reported.

[huisjen]

I'm going off watch. I'll be traveling for a week, and if anything else pops up, somebody else will have to allert the bilge.

Keep an eye out here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/281459.shtml

Dan

[George Roberts]

"Hurricane Hunters walloped by Felix"

Since previous flights encountered 5.6Gs, a prudent person would plan on those conditions.

[S/V Laura Ellen]

"Hurricane Hunters walloped by Felix"

Since previous flights encountered 5.6Gs, a prudent person would plan on those conditions.


If only they had thought to consult with George beforehand!

[Bruce Hooke]

I'm rethinking my idea of going to Belize this winter....

It is, reportedly, a very compact hurricane, so unless it comes quite close the area you were planning to visit, there may not be any reason to change your plans...

[Bruce Hooke]

"Hurricane Hunters walloped by Felix"

Since previous flights encountered 5.6Gs, a prudent person would plan on those conditions.

What makes you think they did not plan for those conditions? They were able to survive the flight, and the plane appears to have survived undamaged. So, it appears they were prepared. However, being prepared does not change the fact that it was a rough ride. I'd guess that there is not much they can do about that other than not make such flights.

[jack grebe]

I'm rethinking my idea of going to Belize this winter....
You'll be sorry......Belize is great:D.

[George Roberts]

"A special inspection of the aircraft is planned for today to determine if it is fit to fly"

I have never had to do a "special inspection." This and the fact that the conditions are newsworthy leads me to believe that they were not prepared.

[Bruce Hooke]

It seems to me that in this case the only additional "preparation" they could have made that would have been significant would be to use an airplane that can withstand higher G's. I don't know if such a plane even exists (remember, it can't be some sort of fighter jet type plane, they have to carry a lot of equipment). Yes, I suppose they could have had custom planes built just for this purpose, but that's a lot of money. It seems to me it makes more sense to use a plane that is able to survive the maximum expected conditions but that when you get close to those limits you check the plane over carefully afterwards to make sure there is not any hidden damage.

To use a sailing analogy, if you had just sailed through a hurricane and survived it I hope you would check the boat over to make sure everything was in good shape. If your view is that only boats which would not need such a check-over should be out on the open ocean then I doubt there is a sailboat on the planet that would meet your standards.