View Full Version : The Next Rogue Wave

12-18-2006, 07:04 PM
Sailors know by experience and by reputation to fear rogue waves. Once thought to be the product of human imagination or seafaring myths, today rogue waves are being studied by scientists around the world. With wave heights recorded at 100 feet and more, these giant monsters of the sea occur more frequently than once imagined. Over the last two decades rogue waves are believed to be responsible for sinking dozens of ships and taking countless lives. In the words of Wolfgang Rosenthal, a German scientist responsible for helping the European Space Agency track rogue waves by radar satellite, “I hope I never met, and hope I never meet, such a monster.”[1] (http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2006/1215.html#_ftn1) Unlike the tsunamis, which are created by a single earthquake, the forces behind these killer waves are created by several extreme conditions. The harder the wind blows, the bigger the waves become and the more wind they catch. These waves become a sail and are able to harness the energy of the wind. Their heights are determined by three factors: wind speed, its duration, and the distance (fetch) over which the wind blows. The big ones are unpredictable. They originate from a direction that is different from the predominant waves in the local area. They seem to appear out of nowhere and can spell disaster when they occur.
We have been experiencing similar phenomena, like the ocean's rogue waves in the world’s financial markets. The global financial system has been buffeted by a series of rogue financial incidents from the stock market crash of 1987, to the peso crisis of 1994, and the Asian and Russian debt defaults of 1997 and 1998, as well as a series of hedge fund blowups, Amaranth Partners being the most recent. These rogue financial events seem to occur more frequently whenever extreme financial speculation and oceans of credit pervade the financial system, as they do today.


12-18-2006, 07:08 PM
I have little doubt that there will be another global depression, sooner rather than later. There does not exist yet a good means of global regulation of economies.

Milo Christensen
12-18-2006, 07:18 PM
At 758 feet above sea level, I'm good.

12-18-2006, 11:58 PM
At 758 feet above sea level, I'm good.

I will hold you to that Milo. You may think your sitting on stone, but from here it looks like quicksand.

George Roberts
12-19-2006, 09:48 AM
Last night I had a dream ---

I was sitting on the beach near the water. The water was almost dead flat. Suddenly a huge wave, more of a cusp, formed and the water fell on me. Fortunately the volume was small.


While there could be a worldwide depression, I prefer the view of a economy that people want to see work.