Clever Stock Picking

[Tristan]

After careful study I bought a small position in NTRI (Nutrisystems) yesterday at $49.46/share. This AM, in after hours trading, I see NTRI is up over $16 a share. Guess I have to pat myself on the back for clever stock picking.

Actually, I'm lying. My own stock picking skills are worse than terrible. Never trust my own judgement. Instead, I subscribe to a couple of financial newsletters. In one of his, Louis Navellier said to buy NTRI. . . I bought it. Just dumb luck. We all should have such luck

[Norman Bernstein]

My congratulations... although I often wonder, in cases like this, if the investor newsletter itself wasn't the 'pump' part of a 'pump and dump' strategy. If so, they you're one of the lucky participants :D

[George Jung]

Been there - once! Didn't like it. Learned my lesson, got by with only a lil' loss...

[Tristan]

My congratulations... although I often wonder, in cases like this, if the investor newsletter itself wasn't the 'pump' part of a 'pump and dump' strategy. If so, they you're one of the lucky participants :D

Naw, he tends to hold stocks for quite a while, not a quick turnover. The two newsletters I subscribe to have decades long positive track records. There are a LOT of quick buck artists out there though. These are the flyers you get in the mail talking about earning 1000% a year, etc.

[George Roberts]

Several years ago Cheasapeake Energy was selling for $.75 (pennies/share). Some time later it was at $33 (dollars/share).

It is best to know the industy.

[Gary E]

If you own NTRI .....TTMAR

Take the Money and RUN

NOW

[Victor]

Tristan, SELL, SELL! If there was anything to be learned from the dotcom bubble it was that stock prices have absolutely NOTHING to do with the true value of a company. ESPECIALLY when they fluctuate like that! The only reason for such a fluctuation is that someone is manipulating the market, ie, it's gotta go down for the profits to be made! Remember stock prices are about perception, ie, psychology, not about P/E, cash, orders booked, receivables, or anything else.

Every single issue of Barron's in 99 had some article about some obscure chemical company or something with truckloads of cash, truckloads of orders, good management, good solid performance all around. Anyone want the stock? Nah!

[Tristan]

Tristan, SELL, SELL! If there was anything to be learned from the dotcom bubble it was that stock prices have absolutely NOTHING to do with the true value of a company. ESPECIALLY when they fluctuate like that! The only reason for such a fluctuation is that someone is manipulating the market, ie, it's gotta go down for the profits to be made! Remember stock prices are about perception, ie, psychology, not about P/E, cash, orders booked, receivables, or anything else.


Well, i'm a small time investor, only have about $3000 worth. I'll just follow the advice my newsletter and hotlines give me. Meanwhile I took a 12% hit on Moody's corp today (MCO). Win some, loose some. Fuggit, I just spent an enjoyable half hour practicing jujitsu with my 15 year old son, better than worrying about stocks. I'll let Louis Navillier and Dan Sullivan do that for me.

[Rick Starr]

Excuse me, but 33% in a day is not a value-based appreciation, it's market driven (possibly newsletter-driven, as Norman suggests) fluctuation. Take your grand and smile while dumping that speculative pos like a hot rock. Self-described 'small time investors' are the last people who should be speculating, particularly on fad-based stocks. A good honest investment portfolio is invested in solid growth stocks and still manages to double every 4-5 years. This speculative stock-picking business is gambling, not investing.

Just trying to help.

[geeman]

I agree,,grab the money n spend it on the boat before its gone again lol

[Tristan]

Excuse me, but 33% in a day is not a value-based appreciation, it's market driven (possibly newsletter-driven, as Norman suggests) fluctuation. Take your grand and smile while dumping that speculative pos like a hot rock. Self-described 'small time investors' are the last people who should be speculating, particularly on fad-based stocks. A good honest investment portfolio is invested in solid growth stocks and still manages to double every 4-5 years. This speculative stock-picking business is gambling, not investing.

Just trying to help.

Thanks Rick, but I don't speculate. I spend about $1400 a year on several stock advisory newsletters. The guys who write these are at the top of the ratings produced by Hurlbut (sp?), who rates such. They have been there for the past 25 years or so. I don't speculate, I follow their advice. Have been investing for 25 years, currently supplement my income, year after year, with my small portfolio. I am diversified up the wazoo, no longer follow my own intuition, just maintain a lot of diciplined investing. It works.

[Joe ( Cold Spring on Hudson )]

Been there - once! Didn't like it. Learned my lesson, got by with only a lil' loss...

Buddy of mine started day trading did VERY well for about a year & Half. Though he had a system licked. Went on to buy some stock on margin. Got a call from Schwab if he would like to pay the $12,000 out of a personal account or take it directly out of his business account. :eek: A few bad trades later with a little ummmmm correction in the market. He used to boast about his savvy stock pics, last time I talked to him I asked how much did he loose - He said " Oh about a Porsche" :eek: :eek:

I invest in long term stock picks.

[Norman Bernstein]

He used to boast about his savvy stock pics, last time I talked to him I asked how much did he loose - He said " Oh about a Porsche" :eek: :eek:

I invest in long term stock picks.

Joe, that's why I'm so interested in my stock trading strategy... I can't lose more than 1% at any given time, and so far (about 6 weeks), I've doubled the S&P500.

I'll post a two month follow-up in a few weeks.

[Rick Starr]

Sorry if I misunderstood, although I don't think I did. A speculative investor trades on market whims (and checks their portfolio daily). Further, the 'newsletter' market is one crammed with sharks who prey on the day-trade/short-term/speculative investing communities so one must be truely careful listening to their advise. I subscribe to a few and one of my principle criteria is whether the commentators reveal their own positions. I wouldn't even consider a pundit who didn't put his money where his mouth is.

Sorry again if I sound critical or wet-blanket-ish; I don't mean to be. It's just that I've been near where you are and seen the LTBH light. (Sounds like several of us have, actually.)

Again, best of luck

[Tristan]

Sorry if I misunderstood, although I don't think I did. A speculative investor trades on market whims (and checks their portfolio daily). Further, the 'newsletter' market is one crammed with sharks who prey on the day-trade/short-term/speculative investing communities so one must be truely careful listening to their advise. I subscribe to a few and one of my principle criteria is whether the commentators reveal their own positions. I wouldn't even consider a pundit who didn't put his money where his mouth is.

Sorry again if I sound critical or wet-blanket-ish; I don't mean to be. It's just that I've been near where you are and seen the LTBH light. (Sounds like several of us have, actually.)

No need to be sorry, your advice is good. I get adverts. every day for "get rich quick" newsletters. One has to be careful. "The Chartist" which I do subscribe to , runs an actual real money account of their portfolio. Naviller does not, but if you check his newsletter ratings over the past 20 years he consistantly beats the S&P. My parents, years back, did well with a buy and hold strategy, partly because they held the spin-offs from AT&T. Buy and hold can be a bummer, however, when a great blue-chip finally does slide into a prolonged or permanent downtrend. I think one of the greatest problems with amature stock investing (as least one that, early on, cost me some bucks) is the classic, panic selling at the bottom , and after the fear has subsided, buying at the top. My impression is that successful investing can be conducted via several routes but which require knowledge, attention, and often diversification. I know a guy, grad of Harvard Business School, who put a big chunk of $ into gold when it was about $400 an ounce. I woldn't touch gold, but he, insisted it would go higher. Got to give him credit, if he really knows how to invest in gold he might make big bucks. His game, not mine. Other friends, I've know for 45 years, started with tens of thousands, ended with a million or so using DRIPs and only selling one company in all that time. Still, cancer struck them (they are self insured medically) and they had to sell a big cunk in 2003, near the bottom of the market. INtersting stuff, investing. Again, thanks, always, for your thoughts.

[Hwyl]

Pulled tis old thread, Loooking at stock market stuff. I hope you still have your stocks Tristan $64.95 today.

[sdowney717]

BOOM is a good investment
Clad metals and they have a monopoly

Cameco Corp, CCJ number one uranium producer worldwide. Based in Canada and is involved with all aspects of uranium from mining to power production.

But with this market, I imagine selling short everything is good.
Frankly, I think most stocks most of the time are terrible places to put money and a waste of your time.
Unless you can trade and make money, dont buy stocks on margin and dont expect if you are long to make money unless you are in for a long time.

[Meerkat]

Although I don't like their business practices, I think Microsoft and Intel will see a gooly bump once MS releases Vista. Dell might even rally! :D

Of course, this assumes that people are going to go out and buy "Vista ready" PC's to run Windows Vista. I, for one, do not plan to do so, and new OS releases are generally quite slow to be accepted by businesses, which is the main bread & butter.

The AMD/ATI merger looks interesting... They will ask their boards on Monday (according to the Inq) for approval. Not going to make Intel very happy - awww, gee! ;)

[Meerkat]

BTW, I think the market is looking more and more like a scam. Too much of the increases end up in too few hands, between executive "comepnsation," stock options and whatever. The average investor gets the leavings IMO.

[Tristan]

Still have NTRI. Markets have been rough as a cob lately. Emerging market stocks have been slammed. Making a little money on zero coupon bond fund (BTTRX) as the longer interest rates sink. Those wiser than me say sock market will do well in 07 and 08, maybe upturning after Aug or Sep. We'll see.

[Meerkat]

Mind the elections! ;)

[sdowney717]

price of uranium is up again to 47.25

CCJ is the one to own. As contracts roll over to higher and higher uranium prices, CCJ will make a lot of money.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Basic_Materials/Metal_Mining/forumview?bn=3208

[Tristan]

price of uranium is up again to 47.25

CCJ is the one to own. As contracts roll over to higher and higher uranium prices, CCJ will make a lot of money.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Basic_Materials/Metal_Mining/forumview?bn=3208

I own CCJ too.:D

[George Jung]

I've considered The Chartist; you've found it a good investment? I'd be curious what other sources you've found useful. And I'm still waiting for another update (details, that is) from Norm B.

[Tristan]

I've considered The Chartist; you've found it a good investment? I'd be curious what other sources you've found useful. And I'm still waiting for another update (details, that is) from Norm B.

"The Chartist" is one of the best. Lets you sleep at night, as Sullivan does time the market, does use stop loss prices, and will get you out of the market with relatively small losses if things start looking bad. I've also noticed that the portion of my portfolio in Chartist Stocks has held up better than Navillier's "Blue Chip Growth" (which is another good news letter). Navillier probably makes more money in an up market, but he doesn't market time, and his portfolio can take some scary dips in market corrections. For the much more conservative I suggest Richard Band's "Profitable Investing," holds up pretty well in down markets, makes money more slowly in up markets. I have my portfolio split into all three (with only a few of Band's recommendations to sort of buffer Navillier).

[Wild Dingo]

Im curious where Donn is about now? I mean I recall a pic of the bearded one in front of several computer screens while he munched a ceegar drank a wee drop and chatted here he had his stock market program running on the other screens... If I understood him at the time and if my memory serves me rightly he was right into the stock market

Me? Buggar the stock market! I tried it once got totally bamboozeled joined up with Rifkin got his report for a year before they gaoled him for stock market manipulation and well... learnt me lesson! I am not a good candidate for stocks and shares I now hold a very small very stable bunch of shares they pay a small dividend every now and then and well until I feel a tad more convinced I can make money from investing in the stock market I will continue to invest in land and housing.

[Tristan]

Yep, Donn seems to have a pretty good handle on working the market to his advantage. A good bit more advanced than me.