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Steve Paskey
10-19-2005, 05:36 AM
Good lord! When I went to sleep last night she was a category 2 storm. Now she's category 5, with 175 mph winds and the lowest minimum pressure ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin -- 884 mb.

Something is seriously wrong with NOAA's computer models. They've done pretty well at forecasted the track, but EVERY hurricane this season has grown stronger than expected, much faster than expected.

For example, as of 11 pm Tuesday they were forecasting that Wilma would reach cat 4 strength in about 18 hours and would max out around 145 mph. Just six hours later, sustained winds of 175 mph had been confirmed.

If the forecast track continues to be reasonably accurate and Wilma remains a strong storm, Key West could be devastated. Heaven help anyone in Wilma's path.

[ 10-19-2005, 06:40 AM: Message edited by: Steve Paskey ]

Granville
10-19-2005, 07:11 AM
Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane that is moving over
very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and
within an environment of light shear. However...despite the
favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum
potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated.
Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight
weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement
cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days
while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.

The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
7 knots. It seems that data from the high altitude NOAA jet
ingested by models caused the track guidance envelope to shift
slightly westward for the 2 to 3 day period. However...no change in
track is indicated over the Gulf of Mexico and guidance continues
to turn Wilma sharply to the northeast over Florida. Based on the
latest guidance...the official track forecast has been shifted
slightly westward but is kept on the eastern side of the envelope.
This in case the track guidance shifts back to the east in the next
run.

In summary...the official forecast brings the core of this
catastrophic hurricane northward through the Yucatan Channel and
then sharply turns a weaker hurricane to the northeast toward
Florida with an increase in forward speed. No change in warnings
or watches is required at this time.

Forecaster Avila

Bruce Hooke
10-19-2005, 08:35 AM
It does sound like the forecast calls for significant weakening before the hurricane gets to Florida. Let's hope that happens! It also looks like the hurricane MAY go ashore in the Everglades, which is quite possibly the part of Florida best able to handle a major hurricane. The models are also suggesting that the hurricane may affect New England, but that is a long ways out and given the speed at which the hurricane will be traveling at that point, if I am reading the models correctly, it seems like it will be considerably weaker than even what it is likely to be in Florida. However, the last thing New England needs right now is more rain, even if it does not come with lots of wind...

Mark Van
10-19-2005, 08:58 AM
Once a hurricane gets up to 175 mph winds, forcasting weakening is a no-brainer. By the way, my boat is no where near Ft Myers Beach, so my "hurricane magnet" boat is not affecting this one.

JimD
10-19-2005, 09:48 AM
Originally posted by Mark Van:
Once a hurricane gets up to 175 mph winds, forcasting weakening is a no-brainer. By the way, my boat is no where near Ft Myers Beach, so my "hurricane magnet" boat is not affecting this one.Now you've done it!

Steve Paskey
10-19-2005, 08:57 PM
It also looks like the hurricane MAY go ashore in the Everglades, which is quite possibly the part of Florida best able to handle a major hurricane. If she goes that route, Key West and the entire Florida Keys will be just to the right of her track (southeast), and likely would take the full force of whatever she's got. The NHC is already saying that it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the keys don't get hit pretty hard.

[ 10-19-2005, 09:57 PM: Message edited by: Steve Paskey ]

joejapan
10-19-2005, 09:50 PM
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That's alright; Key West need a major "blowjob" to clean it out ! :mad: