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ishmael
03-16-2003, 08:38 PM
As with most here, I assume, I have a little egg of money stashed aside. I got out of the equities market following 9-11. It now sits at some paltry interest rate.

Been thinking about buying gold, in equities if not in coin.

Where have you your money these days? It's a very personal question, but since we don't know each other maybe that's easier.

Rocky
03-16-2003, 09:02 PM
I don't think Kondratiefff anticipated how much the production of gold would increase. People who got into coins in the 80s are still sitting on them. I'll bet gold is still a bad bet. How bout Ford stock? $6! Or crude oil puts! I'm losing money in options, but more slowly than anticipated.

[ 03-16-2003, 09:04 PM: Message edited by: Rocky ]

Scott Rosen
03-16-2003, 09:08 PM
http://kitco.com/LFgif/au0365nyb.gif

[ 03-16-2003, 09:15 PM: Message edited by: Scott Rosen ]

Scott Rosen
03-16-2003, 09:11 PM
And here's the S&P for the same period.

http://data.moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/chrtsrv.dll?Symbol=%24US%3AINX&Cached=1&E1=0

[ 03-16-2003, 09:14 PM: Message edited by: Scott Rosen ]

On Vacation
03-16-2003, 09:15 PM
Scot, do you happen to know why the peak was in the mid 2000 on the S%P, and why does the line go down towards the end of the year? I thought the stock market crash started in Jan.21 2001? :confused:

Put up the last one, also.

[ 03-16-2003, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: Oyster ]

Scott Rosen
03-16-2003, 09:19 PM
Oyster, the bear market started in late 1999. That's when the DOW peaked.

http://data.moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/chrtsrv.dll?Symbol=%24US%3AINDU&C1=0&C2=3&C5=1&C6=2003&C7=1&C8=2003&C9=2&CE=0&D0=1&D3=0&D4=1&D9=1&E1=0

[ 03-16-2003, 09:20 PM: Message edited by: Scott Rosen ]

JimD
03-16-2003, 09:24 PM
Funny thing, gold. For the most part it's only important as long as people agree that something has to be important and that something may as well be gold because manure is too easy to come by.

Scott Rosen
03-16-2003, 09:31 PM
Yes, Jim. Very true. And as long as you buy it when people think gold is manure, and then sell it when people think it's the most important thing in the world, you'll do just fine. ;)

JimD
03-16-2003, 09:34 PM
Originally posted by Scott Rosen:
Yes, Jim. Very true. And as long as you buy it when people think gold is manure, and then sell it when people think it's the most important thing in the world, you'll do just fine. ;) Shoot, Scott! If you'd told me that earlier I wouldn't have this big pile of **** in the back yard :D

ishmael
03-16-2003, 10:49 PM
A calm in this storm we live in.

FWIW, I had a dream about two years ago that said gold was going to $4,000 an ounce. FWIW. Not much, but I like most of you, and thought I should pass it along.

Chris Coose
03-17-2003, 06:53 AM
Real Estate in Portland.
Somebody said that Greenspan made specific mention of it.

Scott Rosen
03-17-2003, 07:04 AM
Jack,

In all previous bear markets, the price of gold crossed the price of the DOW. That is, the DOW and gold traded on a one-to-one ratio. We're still a long way from there.

If that happens in this bear market, your dream could come true.

Ken Hall
03-17-2003, 10:02 AM
There's a bit more air to be let out of the S&P yet, I think. Last time I did the math a few months back it was trading about 25 or so times earnings, or still a bit too much. The giant throbbing disembodied brains that handle our profit sharing predict we'll see the S&P at about 17 times earnings later this year. That's sustainable, so barring additional external shocks I'll hazard a guess that it won't drop much more from wherever it is when it hits that P/E.

Rocky
03-17-2003, 10:06 AM
Talk about a nice little city that got yuppified to death, Portland Maineworld.

[ 03-17-2003, 12:25 PM: Message edited by: Rocky ]

Scott Rosen
03-17-2003, 10:38 AM
Originally posted by Ken Hall:
we'll see the S&P at about 17 times earnings later this year. That's sustainable, so barring additional external shocks I'll hazard a guess that it won't drop much more from wherever it is when it hits that P/E.I agree it's got a ways to go before the bottom. I don't think the markets ever just stop at the "sustainable" or appropriate place. They always correct to excess. If 17 times earnings is just right, then I would expect the S&P to fall somewhat lower than that at the bottom.

Scott Rosen
03-17-2003, 11:29 AM
The stock market doesn't like uncertainty, eh Donn?

Gold was way up early and then came down quite a bit after the announcement.

paladin
03-17-2003, 11:45 AM
I started buying gold in VietNam in the late 60's....just a bit at a time..like a half kilo bracelet or such. By 1974 it was up to 68 bucks an ounce and I stopped buying as it was expensive. Eighteen months later I unloaded in Alaska about 38 kilos at $612 an ounce......bought silver at $1.36.........and rejoiced when the Hunt brothers came along. I still have about 3000 ounces my mother refused to sell, I sold everything else at about $54/oz but she was convinced it would hit $100 but the bottom dropped. I still have it but it's worth more than I originally paid so I can't bitch...

km gresham
03-17-2003, 01:19 PM
At the present rate of growth of our 401K Charles and I can retire very comfortably when we're 125 and 124 years old respectively. They keep telling me the market's gonna come back :(

Dave Williams
03-17-2003, 01:35 PM
You folks make me sad!
On a day like this, what you are thinking about most is your bank account!

Sad, very sad!

Here's to kindness,
Dave

Joe (SoCal)
03-17-2003, 01:43 PM
On St. Paddys day I'm invested in Beer :D Im diversified enough in my holdings to have both Bud and micro brew. OOH and please don't post that if you invested in Budwiser (beer not stocks) you would have $$$ in bottle returns. Its too depresing :D