huisjen
06-18-2004, 01:23 PM
Hurricane Season!
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/outlook2004_e.html
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2004 Outlook
June 11, 2004
Once again experts around the world are predicting an above normal level of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean this year. This will make seven years in a row for a forecast of above-normal activity . . . and those forecasts have seldom been wrong...
North Atlantic Ocean
The hurricane season officially runs from June through November when the waters of the Atlantic are warm enough to produce tropical cyclones. For more than a decade the Atlantic’s waters have been warm enough to produce a record number of tropical cyclones and there appears to be little change in sight. Earlier hopes that an El Niño might diminish the number of hurricanes this year were dashed with the latest predictions from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that neutral ENSO conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are expected to run through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. As well, upper atmospheric winds—which can be hurricane-inhibitors if they are too strong or in the wrong direction—are predicted to offer little in the way of an obstacle this year.
Once again, the last 10 years have been the busiest of any decade on record for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with an average of 13.7 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. Compare this to long-term seasonal averages (over the period 1951 to 2000) of 10.0, 5.9, and 2.4, respectively. This year the NOAA predicts that there will be 12 to 15 named storms with 6 to 8 becoming hurricanes and 2 to 4 reaching intense-hurricane status. Predictions by other expert centres like Colorado State Universities Tropical Cyclone Lab and the Tropical Storm Risk Initiative in the U.K. fall within the same ranges. These predictions are in line with what we have been experiencing over the last decade so we shouldn’t be shocked at these numbers now as we were in the mid 1990s when there was a clear shift in the trend towards more hurricanes.
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/outlook2004_e.html
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2004 Outlook
June 11, 2004
Once again experts around the world are predicting an above normal level of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean this year. This will make seven years in a row for a forecast of above-normal activity . . . and those forecasts have seldom been wrong...
North Atlantic Ocean
The hurricane season officially runs from June through November when the waters of the Atlantic are warm enough to produce tropical cyclones. For more than a decade the Atlantic’s waters have been warm enough to produce a record number of tropical cyclones and there appears to be little change in sight. Earlier hopes that an El Niño might diminish the number of hurricanes this year were dashed with the latest predictions from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that neutral ENSO conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are expected to run through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. As well, upper atmospheric winds—which can be hurricane-inhibitors if they are too strong or in the wrong direction—are predicted to offer little in the way of an obstacle this year.
Once again, the last 10 years have been the busiest of any decade on record for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with an average of 13.7 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. Compare this to long-term seasonal averages (over the period 1951 to 2000) of 10.0, 5.9, and 2.4, respectively. This year the NOAA predicts that there will be 12 to 15 named storms with 6 to 8 becoming hurricanes and 2 to 4 reaching intense-hurricane status. Predictions by other expert centres like Colorado State Universities Tropical Cyclone Lab and the Tropical Storm Risk Initiative in the U.K. fall within the same ranges. These predictions are in line with what we have been experiencing over the last decade so we shouldn’t be shocked at these numbers now as we were in the mid 1990s when there was a clear shift in the trend towards more hurricanes.