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View Full Version : A gypsy fortune teller in the chance(one for our math heads)...



Jack Heinlen
02-15-2005, 08:17 PM
...or anyone interested in consciousness research. Tell me what these guys are doing? It's a bit long, but even this synopsis is inadequate to my understanding of reality. Please explain.

http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126649

DEEP in the basement of a dusty university library in Edinburgh lies a small black box, roughly the size of two cigarette packets side by side, that churns out random numbers in an endless stream.

At first glance it is an unremarkable piece of equipment. Encased in metal, it contains at its heart a microchip no more complex than the ones found in modern pocket calculators.

But, according to a growing band of top scientists, this box has quite extraordinary powers. It is, they claim, the 'eye' of a machine that appears capable of peering into the future and predicting major world events.

The machine apparently sensed the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Centre four hours before they happened - but in the fevered mood of conspiracy theories of the time, the claims were swiftly knocked back by sceptics. But last December, it also appeared to forewarn of the Asian tsunami just before the deep sea earthquake that precipitated the epic tragedy.

Now, even the doubters are acknowledging that here is a small box with apparently inexplicable powers.

'It's Earth-shattering stuff,' says Dr Roger Nelson, emeritus researcher at Princeton University in the United States, who is heading the research project behind the 'black box' phenomenon.

'We're very early on in the process of trying to figure out what's going on here. At the moment we're stabbing in the dark.' Dr Nelson's investigations, called the Global Consciousness Project, were originally hosted by Princeton University and are centred on one of the most extraordinary experiments of all time. Its aim is to detect whether all of humanity shares a single subconscious mind that we can all tap into without realising.

And machines like the Edinburgh black box have thrown up a tantalising possibility: that scientists may have unwittingly discovered a way of predicting the future.

Although many would consider the project's aims to be little more than fools' gold, it has still attracted a roster of 75 respected scientists from 41 different nations. Researchers from Princeton - where Einstein spent much of his career - work alongside scientists from universities in Britain, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany. The project is also the most rigorous and longest-running investigation ever into the potential powers of the paranormal.

'Very often paranormal phenomena evaporate if you study them for long enough,' says physicist Dick Bierman of the University of Amsterdam. 'But this is not happening with the Global Consciousness Project. The effect is real. The only dispute is about what it means.' The project has its roots in the extraordinary work of Professor Robert Jahn of Princeton University during the late 1970s. He was one of the first modern scientists to take paranormal phenomena seriously. Intrigued by such things as telepathy, telekinesis - the supposed psychic power to move objects without the use of physical force - and extrasensory perception, he was determined to study the phenomena using the most up-to-date technology available.

One of these new technologies was a humble-looking black box known was a Random Event Generator (REG). This used computer technology to generate two numbers - a one and a zero - in a totally random sequence, rather like an electronic coin-flipper.

The pattern of ones and noughts - 'heads' and 'tails' as it were - could then be printed out as a graph. The laws of chance dictate that the generators should churn out equal numbers of ones and zeros - which would be represented by a nearly flat line on the graph. Any deviation from this equal number shows up as a gently rising curve.

During the late 1970s, Prof Jahn decided to investigate whether the power of human thought alone could interfere in some way with the machine's usual readings. He hauled strangers off the street and asked them to concentrate their minds on his number generator. In effect, he was asking them to try to make it flip more heads than tails.

It was a preposterous idea at the time. The results, however, were stunning and have never been satisfactorily explained.

Again and again, entirely ordinary people proved that their minds could influence the machine and produce significant fluctuations on the graph, 'forcing it' to produce unequal numbers of 'heads' or 'tails'.

According to all of the known laws of science, this should not have happened - but it did. And it kept on happening.

Dr Nelson, also working at Princeton University, then extended Prof Jahn's work by taking random number machines to group meditations, which were very popular in America at the time. Again, the results were eyepopping. The groups were collectively able to cause dramatic shifts in the patterns of numbers.

From then on, Dr Nelson was hooked.

Using the internet, he connected up 40 random event generators from all over the world to his laboratory computer in Princeton. These ran constantly, day in day out, generating millions of different pieces of data. Most of the time, the resulting graph on his computer looked more or less like a flat line.

But then on September 6, 1997, something quite extraordinary happened: the graph shot upwards, recording a sudden and massive shift in the number sequence as his machines around the world started reporting huge deviations from the norm. The day was of historic importance for another reason, too.

For it was the same day that an estimated one billion people around the world watched the funeral of Diana, Princess of Wales at Westminster Abbey.

Dr Nelson was convinced that the two events must be related in some way.

Could he have detected a totally new phenomena? Could the concentrated emotional outpouring of millions of people be able to influence the output of his REGs. If so, how?

Dr Nelson was at a loss to explain it.

So, in 1998, he gathered together scientists from all over the world to analyse his findings. They, too, were stumped and resolved to extend and deepen the work of Prof Jahn and Dr Nelson. The Global Consciousness Project was born.

Since then, the project has expanded massively. A total of 65 Eggs (as the generators have been named) in 41 countries have now been recruited to act as the 'eyes' of the project.

And the results have been startling and inexplicable in equal measure.

For during the course of the experiment, the Eggs have 'sensed' a whole series of major world events as they were happening, from the Nato bombing of Yugoslavia to the Kursk submarine tragedy to America's hung election of 2000.

The Eggs also regularly detect huge global celebrations, such as New Year's Eve.

But the project threw up its greatest enigma on September 11, 2001.

As the world stood still and watched the horror of the terrorist attacks unfold across New York, something strange was happening to the Eggs.

Not only had they registered the attacks as they actually happened, but the characteristic shift in the pattern of numbers had begun four hours before the two planes even hit the Twin Towers.

They had, it appeared, detected that an event of historic importance was about to take place before the terrorists had even boarded their fateful flights. The implications, not least for the West's security services who constantly monitor electronic 'chatter', are clearly enormous.

'I knew then that we had a great deal of work ahead of us,' says Dr Nelson.

What could be happening? Was it a freak occurrence, perhaps?

Apparently not. For in the closing weeks of December last year, the machines went wild once more.

Twenty-four hours later, an earthquake deep beneath the Indian Ocean triggered the tsunami which devastated South-East Asia, and claimed the lives of an estimated quarter of a million people.

So could the Global Consciousness Project really be forecasting the future?

Cynics will quite rightly point out that there is always some global event that could be used to 'explain' the times when the Egg machines behaved erratically. After all, our world is full of wars, disasters and terrorist outrages, as well as the occasional global celebration. Are the scientists simply trying too hard to detect patterns in their raw data?

The team behind the project insist not. They claim that by using rigorous scientific techniques and powerful mathematics it is possible to exclude any such random connections.

'We're perfectly willing to discover that we've made mistakes,' says Dr Nelson. 'But we haven't been able to find any, and neither has anyone else.

Our data shows clearly that the chances of getting these results by fluke are one million to one against.

That's hugely significant.' But many remain sceptical.

Professor Chris French, a psychologist and noted sceptic at Goldsmiths College in London, says: 'The Global Consciousness Project has generated some very intriguing results that cannot be readily dismissed. I'm involved in similar work to see if we get the same results. We haven't managed to do so yet but it's only an early experiment. The jury's still out.' Strange as it may seem, though, there's nothing in the laws of physics that precludes the possibility of foreseeing the future.

It is possible - in theory - that time may not just move forwards but backwards, too. And if time ebbs and flows like the tides in the sea, it might just be possible to foretell major world events. We would, in effect, be 'remembering' things that had taken place in our future.

'There's plenty of evidence that time may run backwards,' says Prof Bierman at the University of Amsterdam.

'And if it's possible for it to happen in physics, then it can happen in our minds, too.' In other words, Prof Bierman believes that we are all capable of looking into the future, if only we could tap into the hidden power of our minds. And there is a tantalising body of evidence to support this theory.

Dr John Hartwell, working at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, was the first to uncover evidence that people could sense the future. In the mid-1970s he hooked people up to hospital scanning machines so that he could study their brainwave patterns.

He began by showing them a sequence of provocative cartoon drawings.

When the pictures were shown, the machines registered the subject's brainwaves as they reacted strongly to the images before them. This was to be expected.

Far less easy to explain was the fact that in many cases, these dramatic patterns began to register a few seconds before each of the pictures were even flashed up.

It was as though Dr Hartwell's case studies were somehow seeing into the future, and detecting when the next shocking image would be shown next.

It was extraordinary - and seemingly inexplicable.

But it was to be another 15 years before anyone else took Dr Hartwell's work further when Dean Radin, a researcher working in America, connected people up to a machine that measured their skin's resistance to electricity. This is known to fluctuate in tandem with our moods - indeed, it's this principle that underlies many lie detectors.

Radin repeated Dr Hartwell's 'image response' experiments while measuring skin resistance. Again, people began reacting a few seconds before they were shown the provocative pictures. This was clearly impossible, or so he thought, so he kept on repeating the experiments. And he kept getting the same results.

'I didn't believe it either,' says Prof Bierman. 'So I also repeated the experiment myself and got the same results. I was shocked. After this I started to think more deeply about the nature of time.' To make matters even more intriguing, Prof Bierman says that other mainstream labs have now produced similar results but are yet to go public.

'They don't want to be ridiculed so they won't release their findings,' he says. 'So I'm trying to persuade all of them to release their results at the same time. That would at least spread the ridicule a little more thinly!' If Prof Bierman is right, though, then the experiments are no laughing matter.

They might help provide a solid scientific grounding for such strange phenomena as 'deja vu', intuition and a host of other curiosities that we have all experienced from time to time.

They may also open up a far more interesting possibility - that one day we might be able to enhance psychic powers using machines that can 'tune in' to our subconscious mind, machines like the little black box in Edinburgh.

Just as we have built mechanical engines to replace muscle power, could we one day build a device to enhance and interpret our hidden psychic abilities?

Dr Nelson is optimistic - but not for the short term. 'We may be able to predict that a major world event is going to happen. But we won't know exactly what will happen or where it's going to happen,' he says.

'Put it this way - we haven't yet got a machine we could sell to the CIA.'

But for Dr Nelson, talk of such psychic machines - with the potential to detect global catastrophes or terrorist outrages - is of far less importance than the implications of his work in terms of the human race.

For what his experiments appear to demonstrate is that while we may all operate as individuals, we also appear to share something far, far greater - a global consciousness. Some might call it the mind of God.

'We're taught to be individualistic monsters,' he says. 'We're driven by society to separate ourselves from each other. That's not right.

We may be connected together far more intimately than we realise.'

[ 02-15-2005, 09:21 PM: Message edited by: Jack Heinlen ]

Katherine
02-15-2005, 09:10 PM
Jack, if you go to Noosphere (http://noosphere.princeton.edu/) you can watch the realtime results.

Jack Heinlen
02-15-2005, 09:44 PM
Thanks Katherine, I'll have a look.

Just to follow this up. In layman's terms, random number generators have gone wild when big events like 9-11 and the Christmas tsunami happened. There is no good explanation at this point. Some say the math is bad, others that somehow human awareness/prescience moved the random.

Now, a month before 9-11 I sat at a sushi bar with my then lover. We weren't talking about the world, but rather about the Asian salad. I said, nonsequiter, "Something big is about to happen."

It wasn't grandiose, I know grandiose, it was a simple statement that came out of nowhere. Rebecca said, "Like what?" I said, "I don't know, a terrorist attack, or something like that."

There is something still hidden from our view here. I knew, like the random number generators, that something was afoot. I wager many people felt it.

But how is this affecting these generators? Some perturbation in space time which is picked up?

Curious stuff.

Victor
02-15-2005, 10:38 PM
I always said brainwaves affected pinball machines. tongue.gif

Jack Heinlen
02-15-2005, 10:54 PM
Read the article, Victor.

ljb5
02-15-2005, 11:37 PM
The machine must have some type of mechanism in it.

You can make a chaotic random number generator from a pendulm and some magnets, in which case its motion is determined by the laws of magnetism and gravity.

You can make one out of electric oscillators, in which case the random numbers are determined by the laws of electricity and quantum mechanics.

You can make one based on nuclear decay determined by nuclear laws.

You could make one out of a gerbil and two pieces of cheese.

We need to know what this machines is made out of before we can even start to ask how it works.

Without this information, it's like saying a man traveled a mile in three minutes, and not even asking if he was running or on a bicycle or on a horse, or in a car.

ljb5
02-15-2005, 11:44 PM
My next question is about how they decide what is an "event."

Was Princess Di's funeral really an earth-shaking event?

The Kursk disaster was a tragedy, but how does it compare to the passenger jet which disappeared in Afghanistan? Did it record the bombing in Bali? Does it record every bombing in the Middle East?

Does every car accident with more than one victim get its own event? What about on-going tragedies like Darfur? What about tragic, but regional events like the explosion in Enschede?

Could every little "blip" in the last two years be attributed to the Iraq war? Does the system care about Iraqi soldiers and civilians or only Americans?

Their choice of "events" seems to show only events that they heard about and that they care about.

Any test where you get to make up the questions after you see the answers cannot be trusted.

[ 02-16-2005, 12:56 AM: Message edited by: ljb5 ]

Victor
02-15-2005, 11:50 PM
I did, and I mean it. Anyone who's played pinball long enough has observed it. If this pattern in the RNGs is influenced by otherwise undetectably minute changes in electrical forces caused by the stars, the moon, your brain, seismic events, or perhaps a collective unconscious, it would explain a lot of otherwise inexplicable phenomena. Sounds entirely plausible to me. Some animals may be more sensitive to these things than we are, since their minds are not cluttered up with so many other tings clamoring for their attention.

[ 02-16-2005, 10:51 AM: Message edited by: Victor ]

Stiletto
02-16-2005, 01:10 AM
I remember years ago travelling to Australia and playing poker machines which were new to me. I was on one and kept getting drops ( small amounts of money that keep you in the game.) Eventually I got a large drop and won a jackpot, I continued playing and got some more drops, and then suddenly felt it go off, I played out the loose coins that were in the tray and never got another drop at all.

I have always remembered the feeling of it going off the boil so to speak,Cant explain it but it happened. I'm no gambler by the way, this was just a novelty evening out.

Unfortunately I have never experienced the opposite feeling of feeling it come on the boil and going for it. :(

Popeye
02-16-2005, 07:02 AM
Cell phones.

That's my friends theory. World events lead to sudden increase in cell phone use, operating on a frequency .. of .. ?? 2 ~ 3 gigahertz. A sudden surge in this type radiation, bouncing off satellites, causes spurious signals on microelectronic devices.

this theory is easily tested.

[ 02-16-2005, 08:02 AM: Message edited by: popeye ]

Del Lansing
02-16-2005, 07:37 AM
What was the old saying, "Give a thousand chimps typewriters and sooner or later they will type War and Peace ."

George Roberts
02-16-2005, 09:24 AM
I think having 65 of these machines replace the single machine speaks volumes about the junk science.

They should show us the real time behavior of all 65. Then we can talk about the implications.

I predict:

that all 65 do not predict the same events.

Barry
02-16-2005, 09:38 AM
Scotttish Scientists and their little Boxes,hoo boy:
Can you say Homonculus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxwell's_demon)

Jack Heinlen
02-17-2005, 08:18 AM
Hm, the cellphone hypothesis doesn't wash, these perturbations occur before the event. Junk science, maybe. Won't it take time to see, with genuine scientists looking with an open mind?

Just another bit of curiosity. What is really happening here, in this universe we inhabit, will continue mysterious, I wager. It seems not wholly fatuous minds are looking in directions that are difficult, because of the inertia inherent in science. Salud to them.

Popeye
02-17-2005, 11:49 AM
Hm, the cellphone hypothesis doesn't wash, these perturbations occur before the event. Er, noo. not this particular event, it likely coincided with cell phone calling...

"But then on September 6, 1997, something quite extraordinary happened: the graph shot upwards, recording a sudden and massive shift in the number sequence as his machines around the world started reporting huge deviations from the norm. The day was of historic importance for another reason, too.

For it was the same day that an estimated one billion people around the world watched the funeral of Diana, Princess of Wales at Westminster Abbey.

Dr Nelson was convinced that the two events must be related in some way."

Oyvind Snibsoer
02-17-2005, 01:28 PM
I was about to write something here, but then I stumbled across a lecture delivered by Sir Carl Popper in 1963, titled "Science and Falsification".

According to Popper:


1. It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations.

2. Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory.

3. Every "good" scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.

4. A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a vice.

5. Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability: some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation, than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.

6. Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of "corroborating evidence.")

7. Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers — for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by reinterpreting the theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a "conventionalist twist" or a "conventionalist stratagem.")

One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.The entire text of the lecture can be found at http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html . Highly recommended reading.

Popeye
02-17-2005, 01:43 PM
People have tried for years to link the stock market to sunspots .. weather .. yellow dogs howling..

correlations happen when you need them to.

htom
02-17-2005, 02:10 PM
True random is /hard/ (and I'm suspicious of that nearly magical XOR gate) but there are good methods and implementations.

I don't see any predictions, though, only data-mining, which (since the value would be in the prediction) is useless.

Chris Coose
02-17-2005, 02:18 PM
Meditation alters brain chemistry.

No voodoo here.

http://www.urbandharma.org/udharma8/monkstudy.html