View Full Version : Whats up with China?

03-20-2003, 05:56 PM
Heard on the news that they are calling for an immediate halt to the military action in Iraq. Have not heard any more info. I would think that this should be investigated, no?

Dutch Rub
03-20-2003, 05:59 PM
Russia said the same thing--- who cares?

Greg H
03-20-2003, 06:07 PM
A sacred cow, me thinks.

Chris Coose
03-20-2003, 06:22 PM
Got a pretty good idea that this cow has about three tits giving any milk. Plenty of green going into the front end, mostly coming from domestic fields.

03-20-2003, 06:25 PM
Russia said the same thing--- who cares? Apparently I do Dutch, or I would not have asked.

Thanks Donn.

03-20-2003, 07:01 PM
"The COW has grown larger than the last Gulf War coalition."

Do you have any comparitive numbers on the Donn. I understand Rumsfeld made that statement but the numbers don't confirm. Three countries have troops on the ground now, right. How many had troops on the ground in GW-I?

Dutch Rub
03-20-2003, 08:00 PM
Well Dan I dont give a good god damn what commmunist china thinks-they aint friends of the good ole usa no matter what any one says-gueess no one remembers that plane they ran out of free air space a few short years ago and then held our service men hostage- not that a foreigner would give a **** what happens to a USA serviceman anyway-bet you were in the front row cheering them on.
As far as all these allies- talk is cheap and all the most of them are doing is trying to get on the bandwagon after the parade has started. How many are going to ante up?

03-20-2003, 09:18 PM
Yeah, last time 5+ active combatants: this time 3 actives and 41 in the peanut gallery.


Chris Coose
03-20-2003, 09:25 PM
Not many checks coming in but the harvest will be shared by few. Old Iraq oil contracts and promises are probably going to be altered a bit.

03-20-2003, 09:28 PM
Coalition of the Willing, now playing with Queen and the Village People.

03-20-2003, 10:31 PM
Last I heard, there were a lot of "coalition partners" who didn't want to be named publicly, weren't giving any money or troops to the effort, and reserved the right to deny everything later. Some of them are on the list due to governments trying to curry favor while their populations oppose the war. Qatar is not on the public list, even though they're hosting some US troops.


03-20-2003, 10:47 PM
Donn, the straight up head count is stupid and misleading and fails to address the reality of the situation. Facts are that last time there was a coalition of countries actively engaged in the war, ie, they contributed troops or money, big money, to the point that gulf war I hardly cost the US a penny because we got huge amounts from japan and the arab nations and europe, billions and billions of dollars.

In the present case, we are footing the whole bill ourselves, and we are paying off many of the so called "coalition" to give their purely cosmetic, lip service "support" to the war. the old saying goes "money talks, bull**** walks." The gulf war I coalition put up money, the current coalition of such world powerhouses as Estonia, Bulgaria, and of course Latvia, is putting up nothing but bull**** support, and we are paying them off for that. Its pathetic.

03-20-2003, 10:49 PM
They're paying exactly what we told them their vote in the UN is worth - nothing!

03-20-2003, 10:56 PM
And by the way, here's whats up with China. We have changed the rules with this war, we have anounced that if one country simply determines that another country is a "threat," that the first country can pre-emptively attack the second country and implement "regime change" to counter that perceived "threat."

Well, now, we have a sticky situation in Korea, in that North Korea is capable of overrunning south Korea any day they feel like it.

And we are counting on China to stop them, our government has stated that on numerous occasions, that the Korea situation is a "regional" situation and we count on the other countries in the "region" meaning China, to rein in North Korea.

Now, much as you Amerika Uber Alles guys hate to confront this fact, China is a country we cannot simply boss around like Afghanistan or Iraq. They are too big and to important to our economy.

Well, we are expecting China to deal with our problem with North Korea. But China just might expect something in return. Like Taiwan. And under the new pre-emption doctrine we have set loose on the world, they might decide Taiwan is a threat to them. And well, its also highly likely North Korea will be pressing its advantage while we are making Iraq safe for Mobil Oil, and attack South Korea. Putting China in the perfect place to strike a deal, Taiwan for South Korea, we let them take Taiwan and they call off the North Korean dogs.

The fact is, when it comes to international affairs and dealing with some of the tough customers on the world scene, Bush and Company are a bunch of pikers, overconfident to a disastrous degree and already obviously in over their heads.

03-20-2003, 11:20 PM
Good, Pat.

Unforeseen Consequence Number 1: Turkey grabs northern Iraq.

UC #2: China plays by the new rules.

Chris Coose
03-21-2003, 12:31 AM
They wouldn't dare screw with the new world order.
Not when it is so young and fresh and bloody!

Andrew Craig-Bennett
03-21-2003, 02:51 AM
Spot on, Pat.

As I think I have said before, I know a little bit about how China's professional diplomats think, because when I was in China my PA was an extremely bright young lady who had been to their Staff College, where Paul Kennedy's "Rise and fall of the Great Powers" is required reading.

China does sincerely believe in classical diplomacy and in maintaining the balance of power. This necessarily means that China thinks that US hegemony is a Bad Thing. This point of view is naturally shared by Russia and France also. They all see the USA as a big danger to global stability.

China sincerely believes that Taiwan is a part of China, and North Korea, full of loonies as it is, does ultimately depend on China's goodwill. It's not in China's interest to let them get too loony (China has does a roaring trade with South Korea, which it has formally recognised) but neither is it in China's interest to pull down North Korea just yet.

If the political and economic situation in China were to deteriorate, the Party might need to re-establish its nationalist credentials by way of an assertion of sovereignty over Taiwan...

[ 03-21-2003, 06:01 AM: Message edited by: Andrew Craig-Bennett ]

03-21-2003, 04:30 AM
Even worse, everybody gets into the act: the Columbian rebels figure they can make some progress towards their goals while America is looking elsewhere, ditto the Philipines, Ditto the Indians and Pakistanis. Add in the odd war lord with ambitions in Africa and the whole African Bight and whatever other hotspot i've missed and it could be like the death of a thousand cuts.

03-21-2003, 06:44 AM
- not that a foreigner would give a **** what happens to a USA serviceman anyway-bet you were in the front row cheering them on.
Only if that serviceman was you Dutch. Oh yea, just because someone doesnt live in the USA, this makes them a foreigner? I've been a citizen of the US for a lot longer than you have been on this planet. What are they teaching you kids in school these days?

Ron Williamson
03-21-2003, 07:04 AM

03-21-2003, 08:56 AM
And let's not forget Iran. Article in The Washington Post Weekly gives them five years to have enough plutonium to make several bombs. We'll have to do away with taxes compelely to afford to put all the hornets back in the nest.

Scott Rosen
03-21-2003, 09:39 AM
Originally posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett:
They all see the USA as a big danger to global stability.I think you are much too charitible in your assessment, Andrew. They see the US as a threat to their own interests.

Classical balance of power theorists are generally in favor of maintaining the status quo, at almost any cost. China is distressed about Iraq not because they are afraid of what the US will do, but rather because it is creating unstability in the psychotic mind of North Korea's ruler. China needs to control NK to maintain the status quo (which is very favorable to China these days).

Andrew Craig-Bennett
03-21-2003, 01:50 PM
I largely agree, Scott. A very correct assessment.
But there is also a "What will the USA do next, now that it is no longer playing by the old rules?" worry in the mind of China's foreign service.

03-21-2003, 02:50 PM
China is at least as ambitious as France for more power on the world stage, and to that end both countries are working to diminish American power. The differences are that 1) China is not being as obvious as France, which they can afford to do because 2) China's strong population and economic growth give it great confidence that the goal can be reached, whereas France's prospects are doubtful, so they are acting more aggressively.

03-21-2003, 03:01 PM
Thanks to all who answered the question, its refreshing to get such perspectives, I'm trying to make some sense of it all. I was also wondering just how much control China has over North Korea, or to be more prcise, the leader of North Korea, to let him go around making not so veiled nuclear threats. It can be kind of scary when illusions of grandeur take precedence over reality.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
03-21-2003, 03:06 PM
Whilst living in China I came very cautiously to the following conclusions:

1. China definitely intends to be pre-eminent in East (but not South or West) Asia - a position which China used to hold and would like to hold again. This is bad news for Japan, but does not, of itself, bother Europeans like me. I am not sure how bothered the USA is about it and my guess is "not very" - at the moment the USA seems quite willing to leave the Europeans pretty much to themselves and there is no reason why the Pacific should be different to the Atlantic.

2. I have not seen anything yet to suggest that China wants to challenge the USA for world dominance. Of course, once China has acheived its East Asian objective, this might change, but that will not be for quite a long time. By then, China, a society which is evolving very fast, may look different, and in any case China has serious internal problems.

Scott Rosen
03-21-2003, 03:34 PM
Strangely enough, I'm less concerned about China's growing power than I am with France's. I think the Chinese have a better understanding of how to work together peacefully with other nations than do the French.

03-21-2003, 03:34 PM
acb; I agree: the Chinese don't care about us or anyone else except to the extent we interfere with their plans. Once you're in the Middle Kingdom, what else really matters (in their view)?

Eric Sea Frog
03-21-2003, 03:44 PM
When China reaches its full growth and power, it will be draining huge amounts of oil.
If the US gets Iraqi oil, it will be in a position to give the lip to the Chinese and remain world number one a bit longer.
The question is not only to get the oil you need (perhaps oil-related technologies will be replaced by another one in the US before the next generation) but to bargain to others the oil they need.

Andrew Craig-Bennett
03-21-2003, 04:26 PM
I agree with both the preceding posts. Note that, in Chinese, the country is still called the Middle Kingdom (ZHONG GUO in Mandarin).

Oil is already affecting China's foreign policy - China wants to get most of its oil from centralAsia by pipeline and is very friendly with Iran - the only thing these two have in common is oil.

North Korea is a very loose cannon but up to now it has been, however annoying, useful to China.

Eric Sea Frog
03-22-2003, 06:42 AM
Nth Korea is a rogue Yugoslavia. Their plumpy perfumed popinjay of a leader hopes Western countries will feed him like they did Tito whose business too was going bankrupt.
Nth K's economy isn't productive anymore.
Blackmail can be their only profitable activity.
They're going to bully and frighten the company around as much as they can, but they better know where is too far to go. If they wage a nucular war, the US will have to make them kow-tow.
NthK city dwellers raise hens and cattle in their appartments and backyards for food. How long will they keep quiet before they rip Popinjay?
When will the Posse be free-handed from their Irak adventure so as they're able to deal with NthK?

Andrew Craig-Bennett
03-22-2003, 06:50 AM
That's a very interesting comparison. The best solution to North Korea is an intervention by China, but the form of this intervention will require careful judgement. It is not a place that the USA should even think about attacking. Not because the USA and South Korea could not knock over the North Korean armed forces in days - they certainly could - but because this is China's back yard. It would be like China attacking Mexico.

China looks at Korea a bit like France used to look at Germany - "We love the place so much that we are delighted there are two of them!" Many of the worst atrocities carried out in China by the Japanese were actually done by Koreans serving with the Japanese.

As Pat Cox has pointed out, all that China actually needs to do to bring down the regime is to open its border....