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imported_Dutch
09-14-2004, 01:00 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/141658W5.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104I+GIF/142103I.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104P+GIF/142103P.gif

[ 09-24-2004, 11:40 PM: Message edited by: Dutch ]

Billy Bones
09-14-2004, 01:46 PM
TS Jeanne is forecast to travel over this evening. My wife pulled all the NPS boats this morning and covered desks and computers with plastic at work. So far we've had one windy squall and the horizon to the east is looking rambunctious. Fortunately preparations for Ivan have left us with nothing to do but kick back and watch the anemometer, which is blowing a steady 20 now and occasionally bumping up to 35 or so.

WWheeler
09-14-2004, 01:50 PM
40 mph, that barely qualifies as a windy day in these parts. Is the rainfall that's the issue?

Billy Bones
09-14-2004, 04:28 PM
Ditto here. The "issue" is that Jeanne will be another hurricane in a few hrs and is forecast to rake the bahamas again and south florida again in a few days. Fortunately for me she's about overhead at this moment while still a TS.

Kev Smyth
09-14-2004, 04:34 PM
Fun Fact: The amount of rainfall one can expect to accompany a hurricane's passing is equal to 100 divided by the forward speed of the storm. For example, if the storm is traveling forward at 9 mph, expect it to drop about 11" of rain.

Let's hope the current storm headed for the Gulf Coast speeds up!! :cool:

huisjen
09-14-2004, 04:37 PM
Okay Dutch, you beat me to it. But where's the windspeed forecast graphic?

Dan

Concordia..41
09-14-2004, 07:53 PM
OK, I give up?!? What's the annual record for number of named storms???

No, don't tell me... :( Just let me wait for Zeus!!! :( :( :(

It wasn't on the web last night, so I'll try to find it again now, but yesterday I read a really well-written piece on the historic pattern of big hurricanes. And yes the news is bad, and no it wasn't tied to global warming...

BB - the book came on Tuesday after the storm and a day after power came back on. It was put to good use though for the next three nights until cable TV and internet was restored :D Hope you all are doing ok through this storm.

- M

Mrleft8
09-14-2004, 09:42 PM
I do believe the next one will be named hurricane "Kerry", and that it's expected to take Florida by storm..... :D

Joe (SoCal)
09-14-2004, 09:45 PM
You are Witty™ lefty :D :D :D good one :D

imported_Dutch
09-14-2004, 09:55 PM
sorry ta beat ya to the punch dan, but when she was named and you didnt hop on it, I figuered you to be laid up in bed with the bloat from a bad batch of kraut and wanted to help you out

Billy Bones
09-14-2004, 11:05 PM
The 'center' must be pretty near, if not slightly past us. The 2300 position puts Jeanne about 12 mi south of me making the worst of it more or less in my lap until now. Anemometer reads steady 45 with gust to 52. Something is banging around outside and I can't figger out what it is, but the lawn furniture is still on the deck so it must not be too serious. The winds are beginning to abate and rainfall has been almost nil.

Hang on....gust just now to 53.

Power fluctuations have started as the last wind band must have reached the Water and Power Authority (WAPA).

The guy who maintains the ST Croix weather page recorded a gust of 67.2 at about 2325, the same time I got up to check out the forecast, and his gear is better placed than mine.

Yahoo.

Glad all's well Margo!

Cheers

Billy Bones
09-15-2004, 02:19 AM
Some of the squalls in Jeannes wake are quite powerful. 66mph gusts on my anemometer and 87 on the weather guy's rig. Rainfall is now mostly steady. There'll be some cleaning up to do in the morning.

huisjen
09-15-2004, 05:58 AM
My gut is fine Dutch. The kraut isn't ready yet. My sister is in town though, so no, I wasn't on top of it. And it needed to be done. Thanks.

Dan

Billy Bones
09-15-2004, 07:34 AM
A few moments ago we recorded a gust of 95. For a storm that should be moving on, this one isn't moving on very well.

I guess she's strengthening while I watch. Sustained winds are up into the 60s and 70s at the moment. Taking the forecasts at their word I was caught by surprise by this one.

I got the generator going this morning. Power went out last night at 0030. When I went out to the genny bunker I noticed that the power lines to our transformer serving the neighbors and us, were draped around like tinsel. Cable, for dems what wants it, is in similar state. Phone seems to be working, for the moment.

The boat blew off the trailer, because I wasn't expecting so much wind I didn't park her in her safe spot. No damage was done. My gate, which was always meant to be temporary, is blown to bits. It'll be easily repaired, but I might just weld up the new one as planned instead. The plants are blowing all over, and the cement mixer looks like it will go ever any minute whenever a gust comes thru, but I suspect that's an optical illusion.

The wind is howling, as you might expect, and the weatherstrip is honking with every gust. It sounds like my house is blowing its nose, very loudly. My barometer clearly needs fixing. I should be reading way less than 30".

[ 09-15-2004, 08:36 AM: Message edited by: Billy Bones ]

km gresham
09-15-2004, 07:38 AM
:rolleyes: Come on November!

imported_Dutch
09-15-2004, 07:54 AM
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200411_model.gif

Mrleft8
09-15-2004, 08:34 AM
I have a funny feeling that Carter's business trip to Nassau next Tuesday might get postponed....

Billy Bones
09-15-2004, 09:45 AM
Well, humph.

Now I remember that I'll smell like gasoline until the power comes back on.

Funny, but when the wind is at 20 and gusts to 30 it sounds like a train is coming. But when the wind has been at 65 and it drops to 30 it sounds like delicious silence.

I took the dogs out to fertilize the lawn and add nitrogen to the soil. They were pretty discombobulated and only one felt sufficient motivation for an evacuation.

Since I'm working on pretty few hours of sleep, let me ramble off a few pointers that some folks might find useful.

First, you should fill your tub with water when a storm approaches. Many folks do this but few know why. The reason is so you can bucket water from the tub to flush the toilet, or just to keep water in the traps when a storm passes over. If you do not have municipal water (and sometimes even if you do) you will lose water at least for a while and flushing with abucket makes life so much nicer. Jeanne sucked all the water out of our traps through the vents and the gurgle-roar in the walls is disconcerting. When the wind gets up over a hundred or so you can't keep water in them, but below that point you can keep up with it.

Second, and most importantly, gore-tex is worthless. I always forget this. I buy a nice slicker from a reputable outfitter, covet it, treat it well and when it actually rains, as it is now, the goretex has become tissue paper and is as waterproof as a polyester sock. Ditto fancy boots, gloves, or any other item flaunting its goretex quality. It works great for about a year, marginally for another, and in the third year (undoubtedly the year of the big storm) it will be useless. I figured out this morning that I pay about $50/rainstorm for a slicker that lasts a few years at best. I'm gonna stick to oilies from now on.

[ 09-15-2004, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: Billy Bones ]

Billy Bones
09-15-2004, 02:52 PM
A quick drive around to the yacht club showed a few boats, including a biggish ketch, abeach, in one case quite high almost in a restaurant.

Power is down all over the island but in some closer in areas it is coming back up.

I fixed the gate.

5.1 inches of rainfall in 24hrs here at the house. More before its over, prolly.

And now, looking east....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

[ 09-15-2004, 03:54 PM: Message edited by: Billy Bones ]

Shang
09-15-2004, 03:56 PM
You may recall that last January I was on the island of Vieques, off the east coast of Puerto Rico...

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid99/p4a78ec671eccc2d0153093224e0d9271/f9f86572.jpg

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid99/pc11c3b04c7a613fdd595d2852cb2f627/f9f8657a.jpg

...It appears that the eye of the hurricane just passed over Vieques.
I wonder what's left, and how the Viequenese made out...?

imported_Dutch
09-16-2004, 04:10 PM
bump

Kev Smyth
09-16-2004, 07:42 PM
Gonna be a long Fall season... :(

Billy Bones
09-16-2004, 07:50 PM
My total rainfall for Jeanne was 9.1 inches. The wires are still in the road, but by gum they're carrying juice so the genny's off after only a tank and a half of gas. My lights flicker every time someone drives by.

Gate fixed, trees propped back up, yard picked up and boat re-trailered.

I can safely say, though, that tomato season is now officially over. Rest in peace, my prolific friends of the vine... :(

ahp
09-16-2004, 07:51 PM
According to NOAA Jeane is only 2-3 mph short of hurrican force and headed for Hilton Head. Meanwhile Ivan is predicted to loop southeast also into South Carolina.

DavesFlatsBoat
09-16-2004, 09:59 PM
Check out www.accuweather.com (http://www.accuweather.com) 's predicted path!!! Joe Bestardi has called quite few right and left turns correctly.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws4b.jpg

Feeling awfully like a clay pigeon

imported_Dutch
09-17-2004, 09:23 AM
heading to florida?

Ross M
09-17-2004, 10:39 AM
I don't think Margo is going to be happy with the 11:00 AM NHC track!

Ross

huisjen
09-20-2004, 06:04 AM
This brings milling about smartly to new levels, no?

Dan

huisjen
09-22-2004, 06:57 AM
Bump.

km gresham
09-22-2004, 07:04 AM
I hear she may be taking aim at the US by the weekend.

imported_Dutch
09-22-2004, 08:28 AM
At least 600 killed in Haiti by flooding caused by her rain

rbgarr
09-23-2004, 12:10 PM
A possible sweep back up the SE coast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/161503W5.gif

km gresham
09-23-2004, 12:12 PM
:( :(

Concordia..41
09-23-2004, 01:32 PM
What part of ENOUGH ALREADY don't these storms get???!!!! :eek:

Although I probably don't want to know, I'll ask again: what's the annual record for named storms?????

:( M :(
(can't find a soggy Graemlin...or one blown all to heck)

Mark Van
09-23-2004, 04:08 PM
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/photo/2004-09/14273576.jpg

Concordia..41
09-24-2004, 05:43 AM
Margo is specifically displeased with the 5 am NHC track. :eek: And Forcaster Beven is definately off my Christmas list...

Kristy quoted Jimmy Buffet last night, "If we couldn't laugh, we would all go insane."

Concordia..41
09-24-2004, 10:07 AM
Nomination for most redundant, asinine comment of the day:


“It’s time for Floridians to seriously pay attention,” said Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.

Best news of the day:


The hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

[ 09-24-2004, 11:14 AM: Message edited by: Concordia..41 ]

imported_Dutch
09-24-2004, 10:41 PM
looks like Florida will be in the thick of it again by this time tommorrow nite

Mark Van
09-25-2004, 09:09 AM
I'ts been almost two weeks since I've been in the mangrove creek, I was beginning to miss it. Here we go again.

Ross M
09-25-2004, 11:35 AM
Hang in there, Mark - least you are not in Ft Pierce!

Looks like Jean should arrive here about 8:00AM tomorrow (FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W...INLAND, MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64)

Third time's a charm!

Ross (28.0N 81.67W)

huisjen
09-25-2004, 12:00 PM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20-r/SI.kmlb/latest.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml