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bobbys
04-26-2019, 11:25 AM
expectations
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Fred Imbert
@FOIMBERT
KEY POINTS
First-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter.
Gross domestic product for the first quarter was the best start to a year since 2015.

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First quarter GDP increases 3.2 percent, beating 2.5 percent estimates
The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter and posted its best growth to start a year in four years.

First-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected growth of 2.5%. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.


“The upside beat was helped by net trade (exports jumped while imports contracted sharply) and inventories which combined contributed almost 170 bps of the rise,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “Personal spending though, the biggest component was up just 1.2%, two tenths more than expected as an increase in spending on services and nondurable goods offset a decline in spending on durable goods.”

Exports rose 3.7% in the first quarter, while imports decreased by 3.7%. Economic growth also got a lift from strong investments in intellectual property products. Those investments expanded by 8.6%.

Disposable personal income increased by 3%, while prices increased by 1.3% when excluding food and energy. Overall prices climbed by 0.8% in the first quarter.

RT: Nissan manufacturing 180823 1
A line worker installs the back seats on the flex line at Nissan Motor Co’s automobile manufacturing plant in Smyrna, Tennessee, August 23, 2018.
William DeShazer | Reuters
Friday’s data was the first look at how the economy fared during the longest government shutdown in history. The federal government ceased operations for 35 days between late December and Jan. 25 amid a standoff between the Trump administration and congressional Democrats over funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

S.V. Airlie
04-26-2019, 11:26 AM
But Trump was promising 4.0 bobbys!Another promise NOT KEPT!

bobbys
04-26-2019, 11:29 AM
We know it's not Obama's economy, will libs be sore as the 20 or so wannabes have to focus on personal attacks only?

Joe (SoCal)
04-26-2019, 11:31 AM
Tick Tock

S.V. Airlie
04-26-2019, 11:33 AM
We know it's not Obama's economy, will libs be sore as the 20 or so wannabes have to focus on personal attacks only?So, what does your messiah do every day between 6AM and 7 on his tweeter account bobbys?

bobbys
04-26-2019, 11:39 AM
Donald Trump has shattered the myth that low growth is the 'new normal'
BY LAWRENCE SOLOMON
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JAN 12, 2018

During the election campaign, Donald Trump had claimed that three per cent, even four per cent or more was doable. As president,...

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Three months after Barack Obama was sworn in as president in 2009, Mohamed A. El-Erian, then the Chief Executive Officer of PIMCO and a past deputy director of the IMF, popularized “the new normal,” a term to describe the protracted, low-growth era that the economies of the Western world were then entering. Impressed with his prescience, Obama in 2012 would make El-Erian the first chairman of the White House’s Global Development Council.

“The new normal” became the received wisdom of the left and numerous others to explain the failure of the Western economies to bounce back after the Great Recession of 2007-8. The Reagan recovery following the early 1980s recession saw U.S. GDP leap by 7.5 per cent in 1984, enroute to average growth of 4.8 per cent over six years. The Obama years never once managed GDP growth of three per cent, eking out instead a post-recession GDP average of just 1.5 per cent per year. Obama not only presided over the worst recovery since the Great Depression, he is the only president since the Second World War to log an uninterrupted string of low growth. To the left, this was an affirmation that a new normal had arrived, especially since the rest of the West also performed dismally.

Keith Wilson
04-26-2019, 11:43 AM
Standard Keynesian deficit-driven economic stimulus. With a $1 trillion deficit pumping money into the economy, WTF did you expect?

S.V. Airlie
04-26-2019, 11:44 AM
It's no better than Obamas bobbys. It was supposed to be HUGE as in 4.0, not 2.3. It was the same during Obama with few variations.

S.V. Airlie
04-26-2019, 11:45 AM
By the way bobbys, the deficit increased by 77% in the first quarter, want to talk about that?

Norman Bernstein
04-26-2019, 12:58 PM
The Obama years never once managed GDP growth of three per cent, eking out instead a post-recession GDP average of just 1.5 per cent per year.

Considering that Obama was elected simultaneous to the worst recession since the great depression, it would be absurd to respect that the economy would snap back instantly. Trump's bragging about the economy was helped more than a little bit by the whopping tax break, financed by increasing the national debt.


Over the course of Obama’s first year in office, GDP dropped 2.5 percent. In 2010, GDP growth recovered, surging 2.5 percent. Growth was already positive (https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) when Trump took office, jumping from 1.6 percent in 2016 to 2.2 percent in 2017. Trump might point us to quarterly GDP growth (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0). The economy is estimated to have gained 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, but that still pales in comparison with the 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent growth in the second and third quarters of 2014 under Obama.

Rich Jones
04-26-2019, 02:31 PM
"Gross domestic product for the first quarter was the best start to a year since 2015"
Golly gee, who was president back in 2015?
President Obama patched up the boat, bailed it out and got it sailing again.
That chump Trump is just enjoying the ride.
But, just you wait. With Republicans at the helm, they'll say "You know what? I'll bet if we punch holes in the bottom of the boat, we'll go even faster" and down we will go again.

mdh
04-26-2019, 02:39 PM
Obama policies resulted in an economy hovering barely above recession with the benefit of QE and 0% interest rates. Trump’s policies have consistently produced 3+% sans any QE and bucking increasing interest rates. It’s like he has a magic wand, or something.

Too Little Time
04-26-2019, 03:43 PM
I have had a pretty good 30 months since the election. I attribute that to my skill rather than to the president.

I don't think either Obama or Trump has done much to deserve accolades.

John of Phoenix
04-26-2019, 03:47 PM
Sweet Mother of God reds are Stupid.

woodpile
04-26-2019, 03:58 PM
Would anyone here, mostly Trump hating liberals really expect to give Trump any credit for the current US economy, about as much chance as a winning lottery ticket, way it is in the Huffington bilge.

Lew Barrett
04-26-2019, 03:59 PM
Consumer growth is very low in this report. The shutdown (remember that?) cost .3%. That was Trump's main contribution to the quarter. The high seeming growth in the report is one data point and continued hiring remains encouraging. But that's not the real story.

Meanwhile, consumer spending slowed, in part due to weak sales of goods, in particular light trucks. Business investment also slowed from the previous quarter, with agricultural machinery and office furniture posting the largest declines. The biggest boost for business investment came from intellectual property products. Exports are expected to slow, facing headwinds from a strengthening dollar.
"Taking out the oversized boosts from net trade, inventories and highways investment, which will all be reversed in the coming quarters, growth was only around 1%," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief US economist with the research firm Capital Economics. "Under those circumstances, we continue to expect that overall growth will slow this year, forcing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before year-end.".......

From the same source:


..........."The Federal Reserve will look right past the 3.2% quarterly growth estimate and focus on the composition of growth, which points to a slowing trend amid softening inflation," Brusuelas wrote. "This data reinforces the prudent pause the Fed is engaged in, and forward-looking investors and chief financial officers should expect no rate hike or rate cut until 2021."





LINK (https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/26/economy/us-gdp-report-q1/index.html)

I'm not terribly interested in economics except my own, but that's what I glean from the news.

Joe (SoCal)
04-26-2019, 04:01 PM
Would anyone here, mostly Trump hating liberals really expect to give Trump any credit for the current US economy, about as much chance as a winning lottery ticket, way it is in the Huffington bilge.

Psssst - Google WoodenBoat’s founder then ask yourself why the hell am I here ? ;)

Norman Bernstein
04-26-2019, 05:02 PM
Would anyone here, mostly Trump hating liberals really expect to give Trump any credit for the current US economy...

Yes, I'll give him credit. He pumped up the economy by adding over a trillion dollars of debt. Wow, wasn't that special?

Lew Barrett
04-26-2019, 05:04 PM
Is there something wrong with being a Trump hating liberal? I'm rather proud of it in fact!

Too Little Time
04-26-2019, 08:47 PM
"...," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief US economist with the research firm Capital Economics. "..."

"..." Brusuelas wrote."..."
News outlets have space to fill. There are pundits who look at every bit of information attempting to predict tomorrow or next year.

I prefer pundits who have a longer time frame. One where predictions are a bit more stable.

bobbys
04-26-2019, 09:42 PM
Consumer growth is very low in this report. The shutdown (remember that?) cost .3%. That was Trump's main contribution to the quarter. The high seeming growth in the report is one data point and continued hiring remains encouraging. But that's not the real story.

Meanwhile, consumer spending slowed, in part due to weak sales of goods, in particular light trucks. Business investment also slowed from the previous quarter, with agricultural machinery and office furniture posting the largest declines. The biggest boost for business investment came from intellectual property products. Exports are expected to slow, facing headwinds from a strengthening dollar.
"Taking out the oversized boosts from net trade, inventories and highways investment, which will all be reversed in the coming quarters, growth was only around 1%," wrote Paul Ashworth, chief US economist with the research firm Capital Economics. "Under those circumstances, we continue to expect that overall growth will slow this year, forcing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before year-end.".......

From the same source:


..........."The Federal Reserve will look right past the 3.2% quarterly growth estimate and focus on the composition of growth, which points to a slowing trend amid softening inflation," Brusuelas wrote. "This data reinforces the prudent pause the Fed is engaged in, and forward-looking investors and chief financial officers should expect no rate hike or rate cut until 2021."





LINK (https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/26/economy/us-gdp-report-q1/index.html)

I'm not terribly interested in economics except my own, but that's what I glean from the news.

The same author was completely wrong just a little while ago.

She just hates trump as does CNN.

Here's what she wrote.

This is Trump's economy, two years in
By Lydia DePillis, CNN
Updated 10:46 PM EST, Sun January 20, 2019


Washington(CNN) President Donald Trump's third year in office begins with the federal government shut down, global growth slowing, and a stock market in turmoil. The economic policy decisions of the first half of his term accelerated growth in 2018, but most forecasts show that momentum evaporating going forward.

An enormous tax cut and continued spending growth added rocket fuel to a slow recovery that started in 2010 in the wake of the financial crisis. At the same time, an array of tariffs have upended supply chains and raised prices, throwing businesses into a fog of uncertainty.

A year ago, Trump could still have laid blame for the condition of the economy on his predecessor. Today, it's his to own, for better or worse.


"Net-net we're doing slightly better, especially in the short run, because the fiscal stimulus probably has greater upside weight than the negatives, which tend to be longer lasting and more prolonged," says Greg Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. "The economy has really eaten its cake, and doesn't have much left on the table."

Here are the major ways the Trump administration has impacted the economy so far.

Tax cuts and rising deficits
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 dumped billions of dollars into the US economy, and even more came from Trump's first budget, which beefed up the Department of Defense and cut little else.

Much of the cash went back to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks, but it did fuel a bump in business investment and goosed growth in the third quarter to the highest level since 2014. The Tax Policy Center estimates the tax cuts added 0.8% to gross domestic product in 2018, at a time when growth globally was petering out.

View this interactive content on CNN.com
"Over the course of 2018, most major economies around the word started to slow down, and the US did not," notes Courtney Rickert McCaffrey, with the management consulting firm AT Kearney.

That additional stimulus helped the job market tighten to the point where workers who previously had been overlooked, including people of color, veterans, the disabled, and the long-term unemployed, came into the labor force and posted their lowest unemployment rates in decades.

View this interactive content on CNN.com
However, the boost is projected to fade in the coming years, down to 0.5% in 2020 and a negligible amount in 2027. The extra growth also came with bigger federal deficits, with revenue expected to drop by about $1.9 trillion over ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

"From what I have seen, I don't think this is a long-term productive investment in the US economy's ability to grow in a sustainable way," McCaffrey says.

A crisis in international trade
Trump's trade policy has been an emotional rollercoaster for businesses that depend on either imported components or overseas markets.

Relief that the Trump administration reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico on minor revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement has faded in the face of Trump's threats to pull out of NAFTA if Congress won't ratify the new deal.


And dread over the cost of tariffs that now apply to nearly $300 billion in US imports is compounded by the fear of new tariffs on even more Chinese goods if a deal isn't reached.

Oxford Economics estimates the tariffs shaved between 0.1 and 0.2% off of growth in 2018, and the Tax Foundation projects they will eliminate 94,303 jobs over the longer run.

View this interactive content on CNN.com
The tariffs have one beneficiary: Steel producers, which have been steadily hiring people and adding capacity since Trump took office. But anyone else who uses steel and aluminum — or produces any of the thousands of goods that have been the subject of retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the European Union — has suffered.

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, an anecdotal survey of business conditions across the country, mentioned "tariffs" 20 times — mostly in connection with how manufacturers are trying to raise prices to compensate for higher input costs. In a separate survey of 1,257 small business CEOs by the executive coaching company Vistage, only 4% said they benefited from the tariffs, while 43% said they had a negative impact.

"Whatever benefit they experienced from the tax cut, the tariffs have upset that," says Vistage research director Joe Galvin. "The challenge they face is, how do I pass that cost along? This is a direct profit hit. It comes right out of margins."

Taking a hatchet to regulations
The White House has consistently talked up its effort to cut "red tape" as a major accomplishment in freeing businesses to be more productive rather than spending time and money complying with federal rules. A report released recently by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs claims that the cost savings amount to $33 billion since Trump took office.

That's not much in the context of a $20 trillion American economy, as the Brookings Institution pointed out. And many of those savings estimates depend on not counting the economic consequences of the additional risks to health and safety that come with lifting regulations — much of which is eventually borne by the government.

However, the widely-publicized rollbacks of Obama-era rules like one governing small rivers and streams and another increasing emissions standards for passenger cars and light trucks may have fueled some of the exuberance of mid-2018, as evidenced by the National Federation of Independent Business' all-time high optimism index reading in August.

"I don't know it's had a substantial effect as much as there's a belief that it's had a positive effect," says Galvin, of Vistage.

Rolling up America's welcome mat
Sometimes you don't have to have an official economic policy in order to have an economic effect — all you need is tweets.

Trump's rhetoric and crackdown on immigrants and visitors — starting with the early, chaotic rollout of a travel ban on visitors from some Muslim-majority nations — has deterred foreign visitors and international students, who have been coming to the US' tourist attractions and universities in lower numbers over the past year.

"Many foreigners don't like Trump or they — mistakenly, in my view — think that he doesn't like them," wrote Trump campaign advisor Steve Moore wrote in a report commissioned by a coalition of travel industry associations about the need to promote America as a destination. "We know that this can persuade foreigners to avoid coming to the US and spending their money here."

It's apparent in other dimensions as well. Foreign direct investment in the US dropped sharply in 2017 from the previous two years and actually turned negative in the second quarter of 2018. That means foreign businesses are less interested in building factories and buying companies in the US.

And it may be taking a toll on America's attractiveness to foreign scientists and engineers, who are choosing employers in Canada over those in the US.

"Restrictions and delays in visa and passport applications have weighed down on immigration," says Daco, of Oxford Economics. "From an economic perspective immigration is a positive, so reducing immigration has weighed down on the economy."

bobbys
04-26-2019, 10:00 PM
Another ....expert..



Paul Krugman: Trump will bring global recession
By ADAM CANCRYN 11/09/2016 01:59 AM EST
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The economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency will probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warned in a New York Times opinion piece published early Wednesday.

Calling Trump the "mother of all adverse effects," the Nobel Prize-winning economist predicted that the GOP nominee's administration could quickly undo the progress that the markets around the world have made in the eight years since the financial crisis.

Story Continued Below


"Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world's most important economy would be very bad news," he wrote. "What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in."

Krugman's pessimistic view comes in the wake of a more than 800-point plunge in U.S. stock futures that coincided with Trump's increasingly strong showing in the polls. Trump has repeatedly attacked the Federal Reserve, accusing Chairwoman Janet Yellen of keeping interest rates low in a bid to help the economy and get Hillary Clinton elected.

"Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work," Krugman wrote. "So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

mdh
04-26-2019, 10:25 PM
The ‘experts’ haven’t been right in decades.

Puttputt
04-26-2019, 10:31 PM
Welcome back, Bobby.
You were on a bit of a roller coaster ride with your diabetes earlier this spring. Is it beginning to level out?

oznabrag
04-26-2019, 10:41 PM
Whatever 'Republicans' are serving 'on a roll' is nothing but a spit sandwich to the people they have fooled for so long.

You mark my words, Paul Pless, the Scots-Irish ethos includes celebration of the eccentrics in the community:

https://www.austinchronicle.com/binary/9699/pols_feature23.jpg


The rejection of bullies, and of liars, crooked dealers and amoral gangsters is universal in the South, just as it is among decent folk everywhere else.

The problem is that we have ceded the public square to these morons.

S.V. Airlie
04-27-2019, 05:08 AM
The ’Trump supporters' haven’t been right sine 2016.FIFY mdh.

Nicholas Scheuer
04-27-2019, 09:23 AM
Wondering whether there is a correlation between our greedy capitalistic economy wherein the klepto directors write their own compensation at the expense of the peons, and our greedy, lying, immoral, klepto Trump administration? Personally, I'd be satisfied with slower economic growth in company with honest government, knowing full well how repugnant that might be to you, bobbys.