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View Full Version : Trump's Damage To Republicans: echoes of prop. 187



David G
01-03-2019, 12:04 PM
His ignorant, chaotic, misguided incompetence is not just harming the nation, nor just the Dems. It is also harming Republicans (see the thread on Trumps EPA for another example). The anti-immigration thing could be a big long term hit to the R's --

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/opinion/trump-republicans-immigration.html


Those results suggest Mr. Trump may be doing to the national Republican Party what Pete Wilson did to the party in California in the 1990s.

Hard as it is to believe today, California once reliably voted Republican in presidential elections. Other than Lyndon Johnson, no Democratic presidential candidate won the Golden State in the four decades (https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/)between Harry Truman and Bill Clinton. Now, Democrats control the entire state government and hold 46 of its 53 House seats and both Senate seats.

What happened? Mr. Wilson, then governor, went after immigrants, championing Proposition 187 (https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_187,_Illegal_Aliens_Ineligi ble_for_Public_Benefits_(1994)), a 1994 ballot initiative that barred illegal immigrant children from attending public schools and using other social services. Though the measure passed after a contentious fight, it was a hollow victory. An injunction was granted three days after passage, and the measure was ultimately deemed unconstitutional.

Several studies have found that Republican support of Proposition 187 and other anti-immigrant efforts alienated white and Latino voters in California from the Republican Party. One of these (http://faculty2.ucmerced.edu/snicholson/nicholson.earthquakes.pdf) studies, published in The American Journal of Political Science, points out that Proposition 187 actually reversed the trend of Latinos increasingly supporting Republicans, with “no counterbalancing gain in party supporters from other groups, particularly non-Hispanic whites.” The authors conclude that the “results raise serious questions about the long-term efficacy of racially divisive strategies for electoral gain.” This study should be required reading for Trump Republicans.

The Hispanic portion of the United States population today is similar to the portion in California in the early 1990s. About 20 percent (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/18/how-the-u-s-hispanic-population-is-changing/) of the country is Hispanic; in 1990, 26 percent (https://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdf) of California’s population was. You don’t have to be a political wizard to understand that alienating growing blocs of voters — not just Latinos, but also other immigrants and younger people — is bad political strategy.

If national Republicans want to avoid the fate of their 1990s California brethren, they must reject Mr. Trump’s approach and make a Republican case for immigration. Prominent Republicans who have criticized Mr. Trump’s divisiveness, such as Utah’s incoming senator, Mitt Romney (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.0ab5999c27e6), should pick up this mantle.....

Keith Wilson
01-03-2019, 12:14 PM
I've been saying for years that a very substantial fraction of US Latinos would be a natural constituency for a sane Republican party; socially fairly conservative, mostly Catholic, some evangelical, skeptical of stupid government from bitter experience in Latin America, oriented to entrepreneurial small business . . . I don't know whether it would be a majority or not, but it's a lot more than they're going to get now. As far as I can tell, everything the Republicans have done for the past twenty years has been carefully calculated to ensure that nobody named Rojas or Hernandez votes Republican for a generation. Trump has increased that to two generations at least.

And here's the demographics:

http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FT_16.01.25_NextAmerica_1965_20651.png

BRILLIANT strategy - increase support among shrinking sections of the population, p!ss off everybody else. And eventually there won't be enough old rural fundamentalist southern white men left.

oznabrag
01-03-2019, 09:05 PM
everything the Republicans have done for the past twenty years has been carefully calculated to ensure that nobody named Rojas or Hernandez votes Republican for a generation. Trump has increased that to two generations at least.



BRILLIANT strategy - increase support among shrinking sections of the population, p!ss off everybody else. And eventually there won't be enough old rural fundamentalist southern white men left.


I think that what is going on is that what the wellarmed, resentful, tribal, neoconfederate, semiliterate redneck demographic has going for it is fear, a proud military heritage, and lots of guns.




That's what makes them so attractive to people like Putin, as a base of power (http://"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Our principle is that the Party commands the gun, and the gun must never be allowed to command the Party. ... All things grow out of the barrel of a gun.).


If you have 250,000 wildeyed, ScotsIrish, armed to the teeth and convinced that the danged librul gummint is out to take they Medicare, they can terrorize large swaths of geography.


We have successfully seated a new Congress, but we are WAY not out of the woods, yet.

Keith Wilson
01-03-2019, 09:08 PM
I think that what is going on is that the wellarmed, resentful, tribal, neoconfederate, semiliterate redneck demographic has going for it is fear, a proud military heritage, and lots of guns.But those things are of no use short of a second Civil War. Mr. Putin might think of them as a source of disruption, a way to weaken a rival (like he thinks of Trump), but not power. He knows better.

oznabrag
01-03-2019, 09:18 PM
But those things are of no use short of a second Civil War. Mr. Putin might think of them as a source of disruption, a way to weaken a rival (like he thinks of Trump), but not power. He knows better.

In a zerosum game, if you have less power, then I have more.

Putin knows that people like trmp will do most anything for a taste of real power.

Keith Wilson
01-03-2019, 09:24 PM
Putin also knows very, very clearly that Trump is, in the words of the Secretary of State, "a f*cking idiot".

oznabrag
01-03-2019, 09:28 PM
Putin also knows very, very clearly that Trump is, in the words of the Secretary of State, "a f*cking idiot".

Remember that thing about a year ago, when some journalist or investigative body turned up a cancelled check from a Russian government agency payable to 'campaign'?

I'm sure I'm getting all the details wrong, but the Russians made an illegal contribution and made sure there was a record of it.

Art Haberland
01-03-2019, 11:22 PM
But those things are of no use short of a second Civil War. Mr. Putin might think of them as a source of disruption, a way to weaken a rival (like he thinks of Trump), but not power. He knows better.

One of things I note is video games. Not so much Play station and the like, but phone apps. The game "War of Colony" appears to allow the player to re-visit the battles of the civil war. Produced by a company called KKwan APK, they produce several games in Chinese and Russian language. It makes me wonder if such apps are geared towards preparing some members of the country for the idea of an outright civil war?