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View Full Version : What do you think Mueller will report?



C. Ross
10-17-2018, 12:53 PM
I haven't thought a lot about what the actual content will be. Assuming we ever see it, shall we guess?

I think it will say there was conspiracy by members of the Trump Campaign to collude, noting the pleas, indictments and ongoing trials to date. I think it will say there is probable cause to investigate the actions of the President himself. I think we will learn some new things about the money trails in the Trump Organization, the Trump Campaign, and potentially other campaign organizations; about Wikileaks and their connection to the campaign, and other things. (I think the analysis of President Trump's finances and his connections to Russian financial interests will be eye-opening.)

i think it will say that the President has obstructed justice by attempting to thwart the Mueller investigation, by firing political enemies, and by releasing information intended to thwart the investigation. I think he will kick this to Congress and the DOJ for a decision whether to proceed.

I think it will address other issues not related to conspiracy to collude with Russia or obstruction of justice. This is where the Cohen illegal campaign contribution matter will land, along with things Mueller has learned from Presdient Trump's financial records. I believe there will be enough dirty laundry that Mueller will recommend a further stage of investigation by someone other than himself.

All in all, I think it will be quite damning, but inconclusive.

I think he will identify the loose ends, and identify who should pick them up. I think he will recommend that he fold his tent and finish, though he would leave an opening that says he'd be willing to continue if asked.

I think Trump will explode. The tweetstorm and the rallies will be in-ending. Giuliani will attempt to get this to the courts to gain immunity for Trump, before the new Congress is seated. The "Constitutional Crisis" question will be whether Congress has the power to investigate. I predict the Supreme Court will say Congress may investigate, but that the President will be immune while in office. The Republican Congress will agree the President is immune, and may pass some kind of resolution or bill. This will force a Democratic House in January into a question of whether to overturn that immunity from investigation (improbable because of the Senate and the President's veto. If so their only option is articles of impeachment, since the Courts cannot that away Congress's ability to impeach.

And sometime during all this well have a sharp financial downturn, because we're overdue. I expect this drama to be in high swing heading into 2020.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 12:54 PM
Rumor caught by some in the media, after Nov. elections.

TomF
10-17-2018, 01:05 PM
I agree, Cris. I will add that I also think Flynn's allocution will include pleading guilty to "collusion" crimes, and that after the midterms Mueller will lay indictments for "collusion" crimes (as well as financial ones) against members of Trump's present and former team. I hope that he will bring charges against members of the Trump family if the evidence supports it, but suspect that instead he will punt that decision to Rosenstein or Congress.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 01:07 PM
I agree, Cris. I will add that I also think Flynn's allocution will include pleading guilty to "collusion" crimes, and that after the midterms Mueller will lay indictments for "collusion" crimes (as well as financial ones) against members of Trump's present and former team. I hope that he will bring charges against members of the Trump family if the evidence supports it, but suspect that instead he will punt that decision to Rosenstein or Congress.I just hope the cell is big enough and the dems have a majority in the House. If Republicans are, they will just try to bury it.

TomF
10-17-2018, 01:11 PM
The Dems will have a majority in the House, but crimes of impeachment won't be confirmed by the Senate unless we've got something amounting to Trump's signature on an agreement with Putin, or Trump's voice on a telephone call. The Constitutional Crisis will come, I think, if Trump pardons family members.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 01:12 PM
The Dems will have a majority in the House, but crimes of impeachment won't be confirmed by the Senate unless we've got something amounting to Trump's signature on an agreement with Putin, or Trump's voice on a telephone call. The Constitutional Crisis will come, I think, if Trump pardons family members.I've always thought the House got the ball rolling Tom!

Rich Jones
10-17-2018, 02:48 PM
Whatever Mueller does, he better do it at 12:01 a.m Nov. 7th because once Two Scoops wakes up that day, he's going to be on a firing rampage.

Tom Montgomery
10-17-2018, 03:06 PM
No doubt.

ccmanuals
10-17-2018, 03:08 PM
I think you will see more outsourcing of evidence to SDNY and NY State Taxation for tax evasion and money laundering.

Rick-Mi
10-17-2018, 04:04 PM
To answer Cris's question:

I think regardless of what's in it, the republicans will proclaim there is nothing to the report, democrats will scream end of the world and impeachment.

As others have alluded to, the course of action will be determined by the outcome of the midterm election regarding the House of Representatives.

If republicans maintain a majority, there will be sound and fury from the hostile media and the left, but it will end right there.

If democrats win the majority, we will more than likely have an impeachment in the House, followed by a stall of further action due to stark political realities.

In the end, all the noise is going to come down to what always drives the real agenda, the results of future elections.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 04:08 PM
They, the Republicans already have even before Mueller submits it. Rick.

ThomRose
10-17-2018, 05:55 PM
I don't think Trump has as many friends in Congress as he thinks he does. Yes, there are some, but there are others just biding their time until something solidly actionable comes along. By solidly actionable I mean extraordinarily strong evidence of undeniably criminal conduct. Although we have some evidence, it does not rise to the necessary level yet. When the Mueller investigation is completed, if that evidence is included in the report, there will be enough Republicans line up to impeach, even if no seats change hands on November 7. Republicans in Congress see how Trump treats his "friends", and they don't like it. They are smiling along with him while getting the metaphorical knives sharpened to figuratively stab him in the back. The Trump presidency is fragile, though it may appear strong in some ways, and by some measures.

Sky Blue
10-17-2018, 06:05 PM
I don't think Trump has as many friends in Congress as he thinks he does. Yes, there are some, but there are others just biding their time until something solidly actionable comes along. By solidly actionable I mean extraordinarily strong evidence of undeniably criminal conduct. Although we have some evidence, it does not rise to the necessary level yet. When the Mueller investigation is completed, if that evidence is included in the report, there will be enough Republicans line up to impeach, even if no seats change hands on November 7. Republicans in Congress see how Trump treats his "friends", and they don't like it. They are smiling along with him while getting the metaphorical knives sharpened to figuratively stab him in the back. The Trump presidency is fragile, though it may appear strong in some ways, and by some measures.

I think this is mostly right, and Trump has recognized it from the beginning. It is why Trump's commitment to only nominate justices vetted by the Federalist Society (together with various other initiatives favored by Republicans) is such a shrewd calculation. Keeps the liberty vote and the evangelicals right at home.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 06:22 PM
You call that vetting SB? Boy, it gets better and better!

Rick-Mi
10-17-2018, 06:27 PM
I think this is mostly right, and Trump has recognized it from the beginning. It is why Trump's commitment to only nominate justices vetted by the Federalist Society (together with various other initiatives favored by Republicans) is such a shrewd calculation. Keeps the liberty vote and the evangelicals right at home.

Pretty darn impressive for a non-politician ;)

johnw
10-17-2018, 08:47 PM
I don't think Trump has as many friends in Congress as he thinks he does. Yes, there are some, but there are others just biding their time until something solidly actionable comes along. By solidly actionable I mean extraordinarily strong evidence of undeniably criminal conduct. Although we have some evidence, it does not rise to the necessary level yet. When the Mueller investigation is completed, if that evidence is included in the report, there will be enough Republicans line up to impeach, even if no seats change hands on November 7. Republicans in Congress see how Trump treats his "friends", and they don't like it. They are smiling along with him while getting the metaphorical knives sharpened to figuratively stab him in the back. The Trump presidency is fragile, though it may appear strong in some ways, and by some measures.
I think Republicans are sufficiently afraid of Trump that they will do nothing, regardless of what's in the report. Until Republicans can criticize him and still get reelected, they won't grow a spine. Which means that while a Democratic house might impeach, the senate won't convict.

The logical thing to happen is that if the Democrats take the house, they do some real investigating. I'm cynical about how much difference it will make if Trump is revealed to have conspired with a foreign power, but we really need to know what happened.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 08:50 PM
I think Republicans are sufficiently afraid of Trump that they will do nothing, regardless of what's in the report. Until Republicans can criticize him and still get reelected, they won't grow a spine. Which means that while a Democratic house might impeach, the senate won't convict.

The logical thing to happen is that if the Democrats take the house, they do some real investigating. I'm cynical about how much difference it will make if Trump is revealed to have conspired with a foreign power, but we really need to know what happened.I can support that conclusion but, even Flake who is leaving draws the line, happy to criticize but, votes for his agendas anyway.

Rich Jones
10-17-2018, 08:59 PM
I think this is mostly right, and Trump has recognized it from the beginning. It is why Trump's commitment to only nominate justices vetted by the Federalist Society (together with various other initiatives favored by Republicans) is such a shrewd calculation. Keeps the liberty vote and the evangelicals right at home. A shrewd calculation? More like a criminal calculation. A man enabled by his illegitimate election to pick the judges who will determine his fate.

Sky Blue
10-17-2018, 09:05 PM
the political effect of a proven conspiracy

Trump would be gone, believe me.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 09:09 PM
Trump would be gone, believe me.Not if Republicans hold Congress. They don't have any morals and getting rid of dog face would mean they'd have to train his successor.

Sky Blue
10-17-2018, 09:15 PM
Establishment military brass would inform the Senate that they won't be following any orders except as may be given jointly by the House and Senate majority leadership.

Goodbye Trump.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 09:16 PM
If real damning evidence is found, a deal will be arranged, the evidence will not be made public, and Trump will be cajoled / forced into not running in 2020. He will state that he was the best president ever, and that now that he has done that job, he is moving on to new opportunities.You mean stop screwing the people? Not likely.

C. Ross
10-17-2018, 09:18 PM
I think this is mostly right, and Trump has recognized it from the beginning. It is why Trump's commitment to only nominate justices vetted by the Federalist Society (together with various other initiatives favored by Republicans) is such a shrewd calculation. Keeps the liberty vote and the evangelicals right at home.

Do you really mean this?

Its a good thing for federal judges to have fealty to a person and a party? Really?

Sky Blue
10-17-2018, 09:21 PM
Do you really mean this?

Its a good thing for federal judges to have fealty to a person and a party? Really?

I have no idea how you read that in, Cris. I speak to the issue of coalition building and how Trump maintains it in the context of a "fragile" Presidency.

C. Ross
10-17-2018, 09:30 PM
Your post was about justices.

S.V. Airlie
10-17-2018, 09:36 PM
I have no idea how you read that in, Cris. I speak to the issue of coalition building and how Trump maintains it in the context of a "fragile" Presidency.Pure BS SB!

WI-Tom
10-17-2018, 11:28 PM
To be fair, Sky Blue said he thought Trump's adherence to the Federalist Society's recommendations was a shrewd move, and was part of what is keeping his base loyal. He did not say it was a good thing.

Tom

Sky Blue
10-17-2018, 11:40 PM
Thank you, WI-Tom, that's very generous of you.;)

C. Ross
10-18-2018, 06:43 AM
It would be a good thing if Sky Blue thought justices should not be political tools of the man or party in charge. If that's what he believes, the content of his earlier post notwithstanding, good.

I think the Mueller report will suggest that some of the ongoing work go to judges, some to Congress. I think our democracy depends on an independent judiciary now more than ever.

Jim Mahan
10-18-2018, 07:12 AM
The checks and balances are in the mail.

Figment
10-18-2018, 07:24 AM
I think you will see more outsourcing of evidence to SDNY and NY State Taxation for tax evasion and money laundering.

This.

They couldn't get Capone on murder or prohibition charges, they got him on taxes.
They won't get Trump on any election or governmental corruption issues, but he and his cohorts (and family) are going down for financial crimes.

Perhaps the presidential-influence-peddling arm of his operation has been able to bunker enough cash overseas that he needn't worry. Does he have any golf courses in non-extradition countries?