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Rum_Pirate
08-30-2017, 11:21 AM
This does not look good either - for us in the Caribbean.

Plus I am supposedly going to fly on Wednesday.

PPS The Roll-down metal hurricane shutter installers are coming a week next Friday (the 8h) to install the shutters for downstairs.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_5day.gif

jack grebe
08-30-2017, 12:10 PM
I've been afraid to look......

oznabrag
08-30-2017, 12:47 PM
See that hook to the South right there about 18ºN 43ºW?

Looks like Harvey's twin sister.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/enten-harvey-12.png?w=575&h=256&quality=90&strip=info

Reynard38
08-30-2017, 02:34 PM
The spaghetti tracks are mostly predicting a hard turn to starboard. I hope they are right.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170830/b02e7d6ddc815bf8b52d5219c17b815d.jpg

Rum_Pirate
08-30-2017, 03:14 PM
Have a look on windy.com

A very interactive site.

beernd
08-30-2017, 03:42 PM
And Houston is going to get hit by Harvey on more time.

Rum_Pirate
08-31-2017, 10:29 AM
Hi Norman got a IRMA thread already going.

Norman Bernstein
08-31-2017, 10:30 AM
Hi Norman got a IRMA thread already going.

I see.... I'll leave mine up, but post here, if I find anything new.

Rum_Pirate
08-31-2017, 10:47 AM
This site has it going North of the Leeward Islands

http://passageweather.com/#



http://passageweather.com/maps/medtocarib/wind/156.png

Rum_Pirate
08-31-2017, 01:40 PM
Hopefully it goes north.

https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/086FAIElIlQ7AMs0SXtxhMwpGXl8CBqH7FDCvnGhcUoZHHon9i TZPJ7mvA6ByFp211l-D7s5ydBdhCSGZuxgLe2ihvWi=s0-d-e1-ft#http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.png

Reynard38
08-31-2017, 02:43 PM
All the tracks save one still have it going north. It's intensified much more rapidly than predicted.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
08-31-2017, 02:47 PM
The track is better found with hindsight....

Rum_Pirate
08-31-2017, 02:48 PM
All the tracks save one still have it going north. It's intensified much more rapidly than predicted.


Hopefully the centre/eye goes well North of all land and that the Cat 4 winds do not extend too far out from the centre.


I am worried about the more rapid then expected intensification as well.

Norman Bernstein
08-31-2017, 03:08 PM
The latest from my favorite weather geek. This could be impactful along the East Coast, as well as the Caribbean.


Very dangerous track shown by the 12z Euro at 200 hours. Need to watch this very close because there will be a trough also coming down that would aid in moving the storm up the coast toward LI and New England. Plenty of time to do the math here but keep monitoring it.



https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21150248_699432540267386_7576745105809954452_n.png ?oh=0d40c26f64895fe1c3d6b48eba59a7b0&oe=5A15DEDC
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/699432540267386/?type=3)

jack grebe
08-31-2017, 03:59 PM
I can seriously do without the rain...... I wanna leave PA. and
head back down to FL. on Monday....... on the bike.... on skyline
drive and Blue Ridge Parkway........

Norman Bernstein
09-01-2017, 07:11 AM
The latest, from my favorite weathergeek:


I believe for every drop of rain that falls a flower grows, there may be a lot of flowers growing.

The track of Irma at this point to me uncannily reminds me of Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Gloria, by next week the pattern is much the same as it was than with a strong trough moving east and a very strong ridge sitting in the Atlantic, this would help track such a storm poleward while accelerating it's movement northward.

https://scontent.fbos1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/21273588_699445993599374_107146923331846498_o.png? oh=1300d7925e28124724d272a3880da713&oe=5A18B4C9

Rum_Pirate
09-01-2017, 07:37 AM
While most of the forecasts suggest that IRMA will pass North of the Leeward Islands (includes me) the 5 days to Wednesday is a long time in forecasting with a good degree of accuracy.

I just hope that they are right.

For us:


https://www.windguru.cz/142066 suggests 14knt winds and some rain.

http://passageweather.com/# suggests 15-20 knt winds and some rain.

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-07-00,17.691,-62.737,8 suggests 3-+ knt winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145426.shtml?cone#contents suggest it could pass over us but more likely to go North of us.

Rum_Pirate
09-01-2017, 01:16 PM
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

Five Day Forecast
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_5day.gif

Computer models
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_model.gif

Enscemble Computer Model
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_ensmodel.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_latest.png

SKIP KILPATRICK
09-01-2017, 01:19 PM
that does not look promising.

It's a long way off and there are decent chances that a steering current will push it out to sea.

But Yikes!

Rum_Pirate
09-01-2017, 01:29 PM
that does not look promising.

It's a long way off and there are decent chances that a steering current will push it out to sea.

But Yikes!


Note how very low the barometric pressure is anticipated to be when it nears the USA coast.

katey
09-01-2017, 08:50 PM
917 mb is really bad.

skuthorp
09-02-2017, 03:10 AM
Giant squid attacks Florida………. Least that what the graphic looks like. Hope it misses you all.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIpF-6uVoAARoSz.jpg:large

Reynard38
09-02-2017, 08:16 AM
On the NHC app there is a report from a ship just 50 miles west of Irma. It's reporting only 40 knot winds. It's a very compact storm and hopefully remains so.
Now I don't know why anybody would want to be 50 miles in FRONT of a hurricane at sea?

Also it seems that any projected path beyond 120 hours is a real crap shoot. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should have a better idea where it's going.

jack grebe
09-02-2017, 10:55 AM
I'm still heading south Monday on the motorcycle, depending on storm track I may have to
hunker down somewhere as I plan a slow scenic drive through the mountains and a few stops
along the way, I'm thinking a 5ish day trip and would like to stay dry.

Reynard38
09-02-2017, 11:27 AM
Best time of the year for the parkway. Schools back in, the leafers haven't arrived yet. Enjoy!

Norman Bernstein
09-02-2017, 12:08 PM
The latest from my favorite weathergeek:


Here is the latest on hurricane Irma, Global models still show a considerable spread at day 5 so it's early in the game. From everything I've been looking at the overall pattern still suggests this Hurricane will be a legitimate player for the east coast, I'm inclined to lean more toward the Mid Atlantic to New England as models continue to adjust tracks. At this point I'm making no bold call because it's just that....early, However if you are a boat owner from at least NC to New England it may not be a bad time to begin looking at preparations to have your vessel pulled. At least look around and see what will be available to you, because once this starts to approach the Bahamas people will start scrambling and Boat removal may not be so easy to schedule.

https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21231092_700248080185832_2352316256725149844_n.png ?oh=61af511a40ddfb3e6ca7042775de0484&oe=5A543EBA
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/700248080185832/?type=3)

jack grebe
09-02-2017, 12:24 PM
Best time of the year for the parkway. Schools back in, the leafers haven't arrived yet. Enjoy!

Yup, and I am planning the triple header. Skyline, Parkway, and the tail........

Norman Bernstein
09-02-2017, 05:00 PM
Another post from my favorite weathergeek:


Once again this is very early but I would like to begin showing you what I'm thinking. By the end of next week If your in the areas I have shaded than you need to pay strict attention from this point going forward to Hurricane Irma. I'm almost 100% positive this map will shift around as we close in on the event but for now this is my thinking.



https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21192965_700279966849310_2908821554936684332_n.png ?oh=6ee99f1b56897e8611f5aaa7aaa4c4d9&oe=5A58C7A3
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/700279966849310/?type=3)

Reynard38
09-02-2017, 06:03 PM
Another post from my favorite weathergeek:

Norman thanks. As this gets updated could you post?

sharpiefan
09-02-2017, 06:19 PM
I'm still heading south Monday on the motorcycle, depending on storm track I may have to
hunker down somewhere as I plan a slow scenic drive through the mountains and a few stops
along the way, I'm thinking a 5ish day trip and would like to stay dry.

Good luck with that. In southwest Florida we've been getting scattered thunderstorms for days, with minor flooding. There's a long train of storms moving from Yucatan to the northeast. Our forecast is 50-60% rain through Wednesday, and probably more after that.

In the words of W. S. Kals, "Always have an alternate plan."

Enjoy your ride, and take care.

Chris Smith porter maine
09-02-2017, 06:26 PM
I'm good would welcome some rain, like to skip the wind.

Dannybb55
09-02-2017, 06:26 PM
I can see the cloud cover over Cape Lookout from my house.Thursdays high tide was 5 inches lower than the edge of my road. We are so soaked that trees might just fall over without the wind. A hundred miles miss is a hit out here.

Norman Bernstein
09-02-2017, 06:33 PM
Norman thanks. As this gets updated could you post?

I'll be happy to...

...but you can check my favorite weathergeek out directly, as well:

https://www.facebook.com/Northeast-Weather-Alert-164482587095720/?hc_ref=ARQXbFxHWXRaHY3ez9hn0T5sFfLOyG535zdjX-RroVQv3LL63e6UG8KEvfMBoUyNSCM&fref=nf

oznabrag
09-02-2017, 07:20 PM
So, this guy thinks that everything from Norfolk to Long Island is the likeliest impact zone.

https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21192965_700279966849310_2908821554936684332_n.png ?oh=6ee99f1b56897e8611f5aaa7aaa4c4d9&oe=5A58C7A3

Norman Bernstein
09-03-2017, 10:05 AM
Another note from my favorite weathergeek:


"Tracking a Hurricane is not like making a forecast for a snowstorm, a lot of intricate parts must fall into place which will dictate the cyclones overall movement, at this time many of those pieces are not quite clear so IMO if I lived anywhere along the east coast from Florida to Maine I would pay a mighty vigilance to what will be Major Hurricane Irma."

Norman Bernstein
09-03-2017, 10:43 AM
Another post:


THIS SHOULD HELP YOU UNDERSTAND BETTER

This is going to be the most important piece to the puzzle as to what happens to Irma, please look at the map of the left, it indicates a weaker shallow trof that would miss Irma opening the door to the south east states. The map on the right indicates a deeper trof that would carve out a track south to north like we see during the winter time with coastal noreasters. I think this graphic should help those following along what I'm at least looking at.

https://scontent.fbos1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21272409_700622046815102_1693921954992575541_n.png ?oh=e47d10944770d331cc9f43225e728827&oe=5A52FADE
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/700622046815102/?type=3)

Breakaway
09-03-2017, 01:37 PM
Perspective: I was looking at the spaghetti charts and notice 3 or 4 that indicate a direct or near hit to my area.

Then, I look at the other two dozen potential paths, none of which has the storm coming my way.

Hmmm...


Kevin


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

sharpiefan
09-03-2017, 01:53 PM
Perspective: I was looking at the spaghetti charts and notice 3 or 4 that indicate a direct or near hit to my area.

Then, I look at the other two dozen potential paths, none of which has the storm coming my way.

Hmmm...


Kevin


[Harry Callahan voice]
"... you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?""
[/Harry Callahan voice]

Reynard38
09-03-2017, 01:55 PM
By Tuesday or Wednesday we'll know a lot more. Lotta variables in play. Some of the track models are quite varied, with possible landfalls from Nova Scotia to Brownsville, and it's been changing every few hours.

Norman Bernstein
09-03-2017, 02:41 PM
https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21230874_700684076808899_2036996722253990314_n.png ?oh=688a2201703a68863a8948577a41ceae&oe=5A16FF12

Norman Bernstein
09-03-2017, 06:08 PM
More:

https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21231176_700768936800413_5772988661132868103_n.png ?oh=bd266a335f6c0403727dc4e872a899b5&oe=5A1E673F


https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21231556_700676496809657_2004319392546105063_n.png ?oh=938ed43a968e68bde626c818b2c0e19c&oe=5A1559A0

Norman Bernstein
09-03-2017, 06:38 PM
The weathergeek chimes in again.....


I would say that tomorrow would be a great start time for folks living in Florida to begin preparations. If you own a boat start making the calls now if you plan on removing it. Further up the coast in NC you should also be putting together emergency kits. The Mid Atlantic to New England you need to remain aware. This map is not forecasting a direct hit on any location but it's based on the steps you should be taking now given your location to this current storm.
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/700760543467919/?type=3)
​https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s526x296/21369088_700760543467919_2419246080515256600_n.png ?oh=c97e2e9cf0fb816465dc24f4d6be4a6f&oe=5A1F738B (https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/700760543467919/?type=3)

Rum_Pirate
09-04-2017, 07:47 AM
Update : In putting up a small shutter on Sunday all 7 rawlbolts failed.

I was in the hardware store at 7:00am buying replacements and they apparently have sold out of 3/4" form ply (favored for persons to put over windows)

We are expecting winds (pending a wobble) of less than 74mph.

First from North

Then swing from the West and finish off from the South.

Plus I am booked to fly on Wednesday afternoon. LOL

jack grebe
09-04-2017, 07:51 AM
Be safe

Rum_Pirate
09-04-2017, 08:04 AM
Be safe
Thanks.

Trying to do so.


Interesting site:

http://stormcarib.com/goes.htm#full

Concordia...41
09-04-2017, 11:31 AM
The next 10 days should prove extremely interesting for the Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard. :(

It's interesting to see the different takes from the different weather services.

Here's a Jacksonville station's current chart:

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/new-system-to-watch-in-the-tropics

Their take of it is that she's going to hit South Florida and come up the state.

I HATE IT HAS TO HIT ANYWHERE :( :( :(

jack grebe
09-04-2017, 11:47 AM
Margo, I really don't need to hear that........ True, but........

Breakaway
09-04-2017, 04:27 PM
Be safe, Rummy.

Kevin

Rum_Pirate
09-05-2017, 05:50 AM
Be safe, Rummy.

Kevin


Thanks.

This evening/overnight/tomorrow morning the centre of IRMA should be passing by.

All forecasts, that I have seen so far, indicate that the eye is likely to pass slightly North of us.
I certainly hope this is what happens. However friends in Anguilla will likely get clobbered.

One good thing is that the hurricane force winds do not extend out too far (+\-40miles) from the centre.

One thing is certain, I am not flying tomorrow.

Hwyl
09-05-2017, 07:29 AM
You could be in the dangerous quadrant, there's not much difference between quadrants now, but if it speeds up!

Reynard38
09-05-2017, 07:35 AM
Just got a text from the NHC. Irma is now a class 5.
Rumy I hope you've got a basement or some place secure. Take care.

Chris Smith porter maine
09-05-2017, 08:31 AM
Keep low Rum, cat 5 and as large as Ohio.

Rum_Pirate
09-05-2017, 09:29 AM
Fingers crossed.

McMike
09-05-2017, 09:30 AM
For crying out loud . . . Be safe Rum and others down there.

Rum_Pirate
09-05-2017, 09:51 AM
Still clear skies and bright sunshine.

See flat calm on leeward side of island.

The only thing I hope is that the Cat 5 hurricane winds do not extend out too far from centre.

I'm hoping that windy.com has it right.

Worst (?) for us should be between 5 -7 tomorrow am.

We are all hoping for a turn (however slight) to the North.

There are a couple indications that this may happen.

sharpiefan
09-05-2017, 10:39 AM
Good luck, R_P!

ETA-- Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

Norman Bernstein
09-05-2017, 11:39 AM
An update:


This is the latest water vapor imagery, if you look at the Trof it appears a bit stronger than modeled, now looking at the subtropical ridge you can see just where Irma is likely to reach the western periphery of that ridge. This was the main reason I wanted people on the east coast to watch the Hurricane. A lot still may change if this Trof weakens the Sub tropical ridge a bit more than currently forecast, this would allow Irma to move along the east coast of Florida rather than splitting the middle of the state, also allowing her to serve as a bigger potential further northward. Just some things to watch for now.


https://scontent.fbos1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21314280_701495903394383_6454370781134618651_n.png ?oh=0e7fb5d42bc0eadcbad2749f28dbd084&oe=5A5CFC5C
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/701495903394383/?type=3)

Tom Wilkinson
09-05-2017, 12:13 PM
Take care Rummy! Keep us posted.

Arizona Bay
09-05-2017, 12:33 PM
Better tie yourself down!

Holy Sh....

11:00a

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

switters
09-05-2017, 02:08 PM
Good luck to you and yours, looking forward to your safe return to the bilge.

S.V. Airlie
09-05-2017, 02:12 PM
I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!:mad:

oznabrag
09-05-2017, 02:39 PM
I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!:mad:

We should INSIST that he does.

Garret
09-05-2017, 03:14 PM
Be safe & well! Watching this carefully as we have family on FL's east coast. House is at least 8' above the high tide line...

Garret
09-05-2017, 03:16 PM
I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!:mad:

Love the name! Hadn't heard it. Gaudiest damn building I've ever been in - and set up as a club because the Palm Beach Bath & Tennis Club wouldn't let him in.

P.I. Stazzer-Newt
09-05-2017, 03:16 PM
I guess Trump won't be golfing in Mar a Fiasco this weekend!:mad:

Drop him in by parachute.

Norman Bernstein
09-05-2017, 03:41 PM
The latest:


Looking at all the models combined some spread is now heading North.
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/701580366719270/?type=3)
https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21369181_701580366719270_7334219152102104661_n.jpg ?oh=909e601d94b74db89e0406073fe52060&oe=5A562016 (https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/701580366719270/?type=3)

The Model spread is crazy for Hurricane Irma... one Camp heads to the FL west coast while the other heads east of Florida and up the eastern seaboard. Everybody must pay attention.




https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/21317952_701570126720294_8803700525098689071_n.png ?oh=0e21292ef029115c1a6fec43e314cca1&oe=5A19C196
(https://www.facebook.com/164482587095720/photos/a.164521043758541.1073741828.164482587095720/701570126720294/?type=3)

sharpiefan
09-05-2017, 04:42 PM
:)
Chaos Theory experiment, anyone? At 2017-09-06 1700 UTC, USA-ers go outside, face Irma, and blow a puff of air against it.
The Butterfly Effect (LINK) (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect) says it should have an effect.



One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

---- Edward Lorenz

Too Little Time
09-05-2017, 04:48 PM
:)
Chaos Theory experiment, anyone? At 2017-09-06 1700 UTC, USA-ers go outside, face Irma, and blow a puff of air against it.
The Butterfly Effect (LINK) (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect) says it should have an effect.
I was suggesting to my wife that we should kill all the butterflies.

No real scientist believes in the butterfly effect.

CWSmith
09-05-2017, 04:53 PM
I'm watching the news. This is not just a Category 5. It is one of the most intense Category 5 storms in history.

Miami-Dade County is being evacuated. This is going to be bad.

Shang
09-05-2017, 05:09 PM
Hope our friends on Vieques are going to be okay. It looks as if Irma may hit them tonight or tomorrow--their place is on the south coast of the island, and is only five or six feet above high tide level.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Vieques_from_air.jpg

Shang
09-05-2017, 05:20 PM
("Secret Beach" on Vieques--don't ask me to tell you how to find it...)

http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/02/1f/ff/83/isla-de-vieques.jpg

mmd
09-05-2017, 05:21 PM
And don't forget about Jose, following Irma about 5 days behind. Plus, there is that pesky un-named tropical storm labelled "Thirteen" down in Mexico that looks like it is trying to make it's way to Texas. Nasty weather in the Gulf this year...

https://weather.gc.ca/data/hurricane_images/track.png

skuthorp
09-05-2017, 05:23 PM
Are water temperatures higher than normal this season?

mmd
09-05-2017, 05:25 PM
I believe so. I think I recall reading that the Gulf, on average, is 2 deg. F warmer than usual.

Reynard38
09-05-2017, 05:48 PM
And don't forget about Jose, following Irma about 5 days behind. Plus, there is that pesky un-named tropical storm labelled "Thirteen" down in Mexico that looks like it is trying to make it's way to Texas. Nasty weather in the Gulf this year...

https://weather.gc.ca/data/hurricane_images/track.png

The depression in the gulf is actually headed for Mexico. Veracruz has issued warnings.

Arizona Bay
09-05-2017, 06:20 PM
The Eye of Irma


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti0QC55XlZ0

There is a sharper vid here, but I can't link it.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/09/05/irma-intensifies-youve-never-experienced-hurricane (https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/09/05/irma-intensifies-youve-never-experienced-hurricane)

Rum_Pirate
09-05-2017, 06:39 PM
I feel like a mouse that has just stepped into a drop of super glue on an 8 lane highway and there is an 18 wheeler barrelling down towards it.

Chris Smith porter maine
09-05-2017, 06:42 PM
Be safe Rum this storm seems to have Kitts in its sites

https://www.google.com/amp/s/weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-united-states-hurricane-warning-puerto-rico-leeward-islands-0.html

Rum_Pirate
09-05-2017, 06:49 PM
Be safe Rum this storm seems to have Kitts in its sites

https://www.google.com/amp/s/weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-united-states-hurricane-warning-puerto-rico-leeward-islands-0.html

I pray I and family will be.

We are at

17.3026° N, 62.7177° W

it is now 17.2n 60.5w now heading west at 15mph

Need it to turn North real quick.

Eye projected to pass 40 miles north of us.



Seems like my neighbourhood (Basseterre) will get 120mph winds.

Garret
09-05-2017, 06:58 PM
Gotta bitch here for a moment. Why is it that the US news channels (even NPR) forget that there are areas outside the US? "Irma may well impact the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Florida." So that means that all the Leewards won't be affected?

Sheesh!

Once again - good luck Mr. Pirate!

Arizona Bay
09-05-2017, 07:02 PM
Hold Fast, Rummy... blessings to y'all.
Dang!

TomF
09-05-2017, 07:06 PM
Irma looks just terrifying. Category 5 right now, with a path of Hurricane force winds wider than the state of Florida. Doesn't really matter where it hits America.

Rummy, get as prepared as you can, and get your family to safety early. This will be very ugly.

PeterSibley
09-05-2017, 07:44 PM
https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-11-18,24.527,-68.818,5

Next Tuesday is looking VERY bad for Florida.

Phillip Allen
09-05-2017, 07:47 PM
I'm also worried about our island neighbors

Lew Barrett
09-05-2017, 08:00 PM
More frequent, more devastating. A frightening monster.

Hwyl
09-05-2017, 08:02 PM
Good luck Rummy

StevenBauer
09-05-2017, 08:03 PM
I think from your pics your house is at a pretty high elevation, right Rummy? At least you won't have to worry about storm surge.

Breakaway
09-05-2017, 08:19 PM
The official explanation of a CAT 5 storm's expected damage:

Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.

That bit about the airborne high rise building windows really makes me shudder when I think of Miami or Havana or San Juan.

Kevin

EDIT: The pun was not intended.

willmarsh3
09-05-2017, 08:42 PM
I won't forget Andrew any time soon. I drove down below Miami about 9 months after Andrew and saw miles of rubble piled 30' high and entire neighborhoods of just the foundations. Prayers that this monstor storm turns north and heads back east.

pipefitter
09-05-2017, 09:52 PM
Even sitting thru the edge bands with sustained winds of 60-80 mph for hours on end is nerve wracking. Wind comes at you one way for 6-8 hrs, then a calm perhaps, and then beats on you from the other direction perhaps even gustier on the 2nd half. You start to think about the cumulative effects with trees, shingles etc. I recall one instance during Ivan(IIRC), where I happened to look outside to see the better part of a tree top, tumble-weeding down the main street with a bicycle snared up in it.

I usually ride these things out, and can often escape to the opposite side of the state as it goes by and then loop back around and follow back home behind the worst of it but, this one I don't know. Still, this looks like a LA-TX path to me with perhaps a panhandle of Florida strike. Usually I can guess pretty good but this one has me baffled a bit. Andrew, Katrina and Charlie I was right on. These are too close together.

I have my buddy up in N. Ga. leaving the light on for me if I bail. Erster has offered refuge as well which is pretty darn nice of him. Although, I think he may have alterior motives with trying to get some of my fishing powers to rub off on him up there. :D

PeterSibley
09-05-2017, 09:59 PM
Take your tomatoes inside Pipes .

Breakaway
09-06-2017, 01:01 AM
Hold fast, man:

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/21318850_10211923917146855_623094364086755692_o.jp g?oh=0f0424c0409f1055b2d4d5e217d28dd4&oe=5A21AC9B https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJBOMKQVYAE0h47.jpg






https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJBOMKQVYAE0h47.jpg

skuthorp
09-06-2017, 04:21 AM
All the best of luck in this terrible situation Rummy.

birlinn
09-06-2017, 04:27 AM
I believe so. I think I recall reading that the Gulf, on average, is 2 deg. F warmer than usual.
Trump will say fake news, spread by climate change lefties.

Hope you come through it OK, Rummy.

Concordia...41
09-06-2017, 04:52 AM
Still clear skies and bright sunshine.

See flat calm on leeward side of island.

The only thing I hope is that the Cat 5 hurricane winds do not extend out too far from centre.

I'm hoping that windy.com has it right.

Worst (?) for us should be between 5 -7 tomorrow am.

We are all hoping for a turn (however slight) to the North.

There are a couple indications that this may happen.

Thinking about you...

TomF
09-06-2017, 05:27 AM
Scary stuff, Rummy. Praying for you and yours, fwiw.

Chris Coose
09-06-2017, 05:27 AM
Weather Underground reporting winds at 50 MPH at St. Kitts, which looks to be the height of it.

doorstop
09-06-2017, 05:38 AM
Best of luck to you and yours Mr. Pirate sir and also to anyone else in the path of this monster.

PeterSibley
09-06-2017, 05:45 AM
Scary stuff, Rummy. Praying for you and yours, fwiw.

What Tom said, take care !

WX
09-06-2017, 06:25 AM
Been watching this one, may it prove less than predicted.

Hwyl
09-06-2017, 07:25 AM
I've seen videos of St Barth's and St Maarten, both of which are close to St Kitts. They show major damage and intense flooding, but buildings are standing, and it looks awful but survivable.

skuthorp
09-06-2017, 07:39 AM
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-puerto-rico-florida/index.html

http://i2.cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/170905211422-irma-tuesday-9p-satellite-exlarge-169.jpg

Gerarddm
09-06-2017, 08:57 AM
Hang tight, Rumy and anybody else down there. I hope Wizbang's boat was well secured.

Hwyl
09-06-2017, 10:02 AM
This is Gustavia in St Barth's

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21272487_1575782699134590_8871240969710881847_n.jp g?oh=cd1168624d48a4f3b5517e158ca070fb&oe=5A21867A

in happier times

http://www.saintbarth-tourisme.com/sites/drupal.stbarth/files/styles/w800/public/gustavia_4_0.jpg?itok=18FaWHRb

Garret
09-06-2017, 10:37 AM
What a mess. Here are some pics on FaceBook from St. Maarten News: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

LeeG
09-06-2017, 11:03 AM
What a mess. Here are some pics on FaceBook from St. Maarten News: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

That's horrific

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 12:39 PM
We survived.

Thankful for what we got and no more. It could have been worse.

Apparently 40 -50 miles from centre.

Winds were LESS than 80mph. Although eye forecast at 185 gusting to 225.

When they forecast eye wall would brush/go over us, we packed and went down to the apartment below (original purpose a hurricane hole).

Have no power (not islandwide), running on a generator.

Understand a few (very) utility poles are down.

Having heavy showers now.

Barbuda about 50 miles north had they go over it and are reported to have about 125mph winds and only one roof lost. (Source friend in Antigua).



St.Maarten apparently hit solidly and Anguilla and St.Barts may have got a lashing.

It could have been worse, far worse.

Reynard38
09-06-2017, 12:40 PM
Great to hear you made it through in pretty good shape.

TomF
09-06-2017, 12:41 PM
Glad to see you pop up your head, Rummy. A far better result than could have been.

Garret
09-06-2017, 12:41 PM
Glad to hear you're OK!

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 12:41 PM
I am not surprised. That port is open to the West where the winds pushed the water in a surge.

If it had passed below st.Barts unlikely any damage would have occured to boats in the harbour.

SKIP KILPATRICK
09-06-2017, 01:00 PM
Rummy,
I am happy to have you safe!

Phillip Allen
09-06-2017, 01:17 PM
is this OUR Irma?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE

Breakaway
09-06-2017, 01:18 PM
Happy to hear this news from you.

Kevin

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 01:30 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-WDrsX-OTc

CK 17
09-06-2017, 01:44 PM
Glad your ok. Thanks for the updates.

peter radclyffe
09-06-2017, 01:54 PM
my sister and her fella live on st martin repairing boats

beernd
09-06-2017, 02:08 PM
What a mess. Here are some pics on FaceBook from St. Maarten News: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

You beat me to it.
Worst storm ever.

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 02:39 PM
Thanks all for the good wishes etc.

I am very worried for those down it's path.

I have friends in Anguilla and St.Maarten which got really hammered as St.Barthes and the BVI.

peter radclyffe
09-06-2017, 02:44 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-WDrsX-OTc

Joe (SoCal)
09-06-2017, 03:17 PM
Just spoke to my dad - I'm worried :(

http://www.cityofpsl.com/pics/florida-map-port-st-lucie.jpg

Tom Wilkinson
09-06-2017, 03:27 PM
Just spoke to my dad - I'm worried :(

http://www.cityofpsl.com/pics/florida-map-port-st-lucie.jpg

I hope he is on the move. It's just not worth waiting to try to ride this one out. There is gonna be a huge logjam if everyone waits to see where it goes.

Joe (SoCal)
09-06-2017, 03:34 PM
I hope he is on the move. It's just not worth waiting to try to ride this one out. There is gonna be a huge logjam if everyone waits to see where it goes.

He's 80 and waiting it out - I'm worried and call twice a day. I have him booked to visit us for Thanksgiving

Rich Jones
09-06-2017, 03:59 PM
I've got friends who just moved to West Palm Beach and bought a house. Sheesh... they're not even unpacked yet...

skuthorp
09-06-2017, 04:08 PM
Glad to see you havwe all survived RP.

Joe, maybe the invite should be somewhat more urgent?

Hwyl
09-06-2017, 04:49 PM
The BVI charter fleet


before
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369410_1823411894355466_8065169893720416524_n.jp g?oh=f2f3024d767678182ea3a4399c2bc9c2&oe=5A52E611

and
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369381_10212053299261249_7921389241773955220_n.j pg?oh=9690087e484c6f32f1ea5a974eb5186a&oe=5A1EC38E

Joe (SoCal)
09-06-2017, 04:51 PM
Thanks all for the good wishes etc.

I am very worried for those down it's path.

I have friends in Anguilla and St.Maarten which got really hammered as St.Barthes and the BVI.

Glad you survived, I was worried about you

Lew Barrett
09-06-2017, 05:00 PM
Glad you came through clean. We'll have to call you Rumbo now that you toughed it out and came out whole!

Where in the BVIs was that shot taken? Is that Pusser's Bay?

jackster
09-06-2017, 05:06 PM
The BVI charter fleet


before
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369410_1823411894355466_8065169893720416524_n.jp g?oh=f2f3024d767678182ea3a4399c2bc9c2&oe=5A52E611

and
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369381_10212053299261249_7921389241773955220_n.j pg?oh=9690087e484c6f32f1ea5a974eb5186a&oe=5A1EC38E

HOLLY COW!!! Remarkable. The actual impact of Force 5! Just hard to comprehend!

Phil Y
09-06-2017, 05:16 PM
The BVI charter fleet


before
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369410_1823411894355466_8065169893720416524_n.jp g?oh=f2f3024d767678182ea3a4399c2bc9c2&oe=5A52E611

and
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21369381_10212053299261249_7921389241773955220_n.j pg?oh=9690087e484c6f32f1ea5a974eb5186a&oe=5A1EC38E

Thats a horrible picture.

moTthediesel
09-06-2017, 05:23 PM
Oh man -- is that the Moorings fleet?

Hwyl
09-06-2017, 05:27 PM
Apparently even more horrible in Road Town Tortola, most of the roofs are off the buldings, all the boats in Village Cay sunk. This is a major hit. I have not heard from my friend on the East side of St Thomas in a few hours, heard nothing from friends in Sint Maarten

Hwyl
09-06-2017, 05:28 PM
Oh man -- is that the Moorings fleet?

Yup and Sunsail, mostly cat's.

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 05:55 PM
Just spoke to my dad - I'm worried :(




Yes, it is a Cat 5, possibly will weaken.

The devastating section is within 40 miles of the eyewall, so basically a potential 80 mile stretch reducing to 100mph winds at that 40 radius.

How long is Florida coast line?

Yes prepare for it, but let us remember that it will not affect the entire Florida Eastern coastline.

We were lucky the eye centre passed a little more than +/- 40 miles of us.

The satellite pic shows IRMA being hundreds of miles in diameter overall.

If it will potentially affect /pass within say 50-60 miles of your location in Florida, then YES lock up and get out.

Stay safe.

You can easily replace property, you can't renew lives.

johnw
09-06-2017, 06:27 PM
Glad you're safe, Rum.

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 07:17 PM
Glad you're safe, Rum.


Thanks John, and also to all that sent good wishes etc.

sharpiefan
09-06-2017, 07:46 PM
Glad you weathered the blow, Rum. Time to hoist a glass of grog in gratitude to the weather gods?

StevenBauer
09-06-2017, 08:22 PM
The latest tracks look like a direct hit on Miami then right up the East coast of the state. I heard Miami hospitals are sending patients inland. Getting very real for lots more people. They are saying Barbuda has lost 90% of its buildings.

Flying Orca
09-06-2017, 08:23 PM
Glad you came through OK, Rum-P. A bit worried about family in south FL though.

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 10:15 PM
The latest tracks look like a direct hit on Miami then right up the East coast of the state. I heard Miami hospitals are sending patients inland. Getting very real for lots more people. They are saying Barbuda has lost 90% of its buildings.
Talk of evacuating the entire island (1600+ inhabitants).

https://caribbeannewsservice.com/now/paradise-lost-pm-gaston-browne-says-full-evacuation-barbuda-might-necessary/

oznabrag
09-06-2017, 10:16 PM
Glad you weathered the blow, Rum. Time to hoist a glass of grog in gratitude to the weather gods?

'Ere's lookin' at ewe, 'Uey!"

Rum_Pirate
09-06-2017, 10:18 PM
Glad you came through OK, Rum-P. A bit worried about family in south FL though.
Follow the forecasts.

Then if 24 hours out it appears that the centre will hit with in 50 miles of your location, then certainly evacuate.

If the forecast 48 hour 'cone' will include your location then consider moving out.

Keep bumping this thread up, and we will all follow it.

zertgold
09-06-2017, 10:23 PM
"world’s most accurate weather model predicts for Irma"
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/euroopea-800x600.jpg

skuthorp
09-06-2017, 11:02 PM
Lotta glass in those towers at Miami Beach…………..

Gerarddm
09-06-2017, 11:53 PM
It would be a cruel sort of hilarity to have it flatten our current president's grotesquery of a Florida estate, Mar-A-Lago.

skuthorp
09-07-2017, 03:30 AM
Now now, no gloating in anticipation……………
She may sidle off to Tampa yet.

WX
09-07-2017, 03:31 AM
Present predictions are for it to travel parallel to the East coast.

Concordia...41
09-07-2017, 04:30 AM
For Floridians, it's absolutely a cliche to say, "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst." In this case, it's also absolutely true.

Thinking about the poor folks in Haiti right now :(

Watching and waiting here...

ishmael
09-07-2017, 05:39 AM
Be safe M., and everyone else wherever it tracks!

These lows almost never make it with much force up my way, but it looks like the next week could be an interesting...and wet one.

Best of luck everyone.

"Trust in Allah, but tie your camel."

skuthorp
09-07-2017, 05:46 AM
Is it normal for hurricanes to queue up in the Atlantic and wait their turn?

Ian McColgin
09-07-2017, 05:55 AM
Yes, but some are quite pushy.

elf
09-07-2017, 06:24 AM
Wunderground's comments on storm surge look just ducky for FL, GA and SC coasts.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

genglandoh
09-07-2017, 12:19 PM
Just a reminder that sometimes the predictions are completely wrong.

The prediction for IRMA looks like it may hit southern Florida on Sunday (2 1/2 days away) as a Cat4.
Lets see if they are right.


Hurricanes do not curl back against the Gulf Stream.
They must be smoking something.

Title: Florida could be hit twice by Hurricane Matthew
(CNN)Hurricane Matthew could take a turn and head back to Florida again after making landfall this week, according to some forecast models.
The first impact to Central Florida will be more dangerous; Matthew could make landfall in Florida early Friday as a Category 4 hurricane, according to the latest projections. Authorities have urged more than 2 million people to leave their homes in coastal Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
Days later, some forecast models project, the storm will move up the coast and then curl back toward Florida.
Link: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/06/weather/florida-hurricane-matthew-hit-twice/

Title: Hurricane Matthew's loop back to Florida would be 'unprecedented'
Well, that would be weird.
After Hurricane Matthew's initial battering of the Southeast coast this week, the long-range forecast shows it looping back around toward Florida next week, potentially striking the state a second time.
"While a loop back towards Florida and the Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time," said Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters.
Link: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-loop-forecast-florida/91668648/

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/dbd5e6b95940b498a1c9748732c7fc9dcedd1ea9/c=149-91-746-540&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/2016/10/06/USATODAY/USATODAY/636113577929823901-loop2.jpg

Breakaway
09-07-2017, 12:25 PM
Is it normal for hurricanes to queue up in the Atlantic and wait their turn?




Not uncommon. This is the height of the season, wherein frequent heat waves come off Africa at this time, and march westward. Some remain basic low pressure systems, some become tropical storms and some develop into hurricanes. Of these, not all make landfall.

Kevin

bamamick
09-07-2017, 12:43 PM
The last thing I saw had it over J'ville as a Cat3, which is pretty amazing considering the eye will have passed through how many miles of land to make it that far. I was a kid when Camille hit us, and it washed ships ashore from out in the Gulf. It did what this one is doing, de-nuding all of the trees, ripping houses to pieces, etc. It was terrifying. The photos I have seen today of what has happened in the islands are terrifying. This is probably a once in 50 year storm, and to be honest it scares the hell out of me just knowing what is going to happen to so many people's lives.

If you read through these threads there are some pretty glib comments, and I would at this time ask people to refrain from such. This isn't anything to make jokes about. This is the power of an F3 tornado that is a couple hundred miles wide, and I don't wish that on anyone, anywhere.

Mickey Lake

Phil Y
09-07-2017, 04:07 PM
I follow a few people on Facebook who have lost their boats. Very sad. Real people even though I only have virtual contact with them. Same as here.

StevenBauer
09-07-2017, 05:30 PM
For Floridians, it's absolutely a cliche to say, "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst." In this case, it's also absolutely true.

Thinking about the poor folks in Haiti right now :(

Watching and waiting here...


Dont wait too long Margo! Get out before the roads are clogged. Seriously. My step mom is staying put with some family and friends but she's over in Venice.

bamamick
09-07-2017, 06:19 PM
The roads around Mobile are completely backed up. My daughter that lives in Atlanta was supposed to come home this weekend but decided to stay home because of the threat of gas shortages and so much congestion on the roads.

The largest storm evacuation in U.S. history, and deservedly so.

Mickey Lake

Concordia...41
09-07-2017, 06:57 PM
Newsflash Steven, the roads are already clogged. They have been since yesterday. It's a geography thing. Evacuate the Keys, evacuate Miami, evacuate Fort Lauderdale... you get the picture. Now this is unique with the southwest coast being evacuated, but I-95 in South Florida is a parking lot 10 hours a day on a regular day and now you have however many million people on the road all going north. You also have the dynamic where a family will have multiple vehicles (however many they own) all loaded with all their worldly goods, possessions, pets, etc. I promise there is no carpooling at this point. It's ugly :( This afternoon US 1 north through town was a 20 drive to get less than 3 miles. One poor gal at the office thought she'd run to Home Depot over lunch. Five minutes to get there (southbound), 30 minutes to get back...

I doubt it will happen, but in the evening briefing our sheriff mentioned having to keep cars (non residents) from coming off the interstate if what is becoming thousands of cars trying to get off of I-95 reaches a public safety concern. I don't know how they would let him do that but he said that there can be a point when the traffic overwhelms local law enforcement's ability to keep everyone safe.

The Jacksonville's sheriff had a good word for it - 'contraflow' I think - when they take southbound lanes of I-95 and make them northbound, but he said the interchange at I-95 and I-10 couldn't handle it. That's true and makes sense that you could have 10 lanes coming north, but there are interchanges and merges that are only a couple of lanes wide. At that point you have 10 lanes of traffic at a standstill. Still social media is screaming for everyone's heads because the southbound lanes aren't 'contraflowed'

They (Governor Scott, FDOT, FHP, local agencies) do seem to be managing the cluster f--- as well as possible and certainly better than I could. And they have been urging people to get out for days. It's just too many people in this state and it's Freaking Irmageddeon.

It's not as bad as New Orleans, but there is a segment of the population that does not own a vehicle and/or can't get out. There was a lot of blame thrown on the New Orleans residents that didn't get out, but a fair % of them didn't have the means to. It's like that throughout the Keys and South Florida. Monroe, Dade and Broward Counties made buses available, but a lot of these people not only lack transportation - they don't have any place to go. (It's actually like that everywhere to a degree, but that's fodder for another thread... |;))

The Thursday 5 pm update now has the storm coming directly up the center of the state, which is bad for both coasts. So now I-75, I-4, every highway and side road for 300 miles is a traffic nightmare. And a lot of people are heading up into Georgia, which may be the next place to get hit. The good news is that the prediction is that it will just be a Category 1 by the time it rolls over us.

The predictions though - are just like navigation and if the storm changes by just a degree or two and over the course of the next few days and hundreds of miles - there plenty of time and room for change - for better or worse.

The biggest problem I see is fuel shortages as everyone sits in traffic. Governor Scott says there are tankers coming in to all major ports and that EPA and other regulations have been waived. What regulations there are I don't know, but I imagine it is all tightly regulated (normally) as to quantities, distribution streams, etc. They're loading fuel trucks which then get police escorts but the roads are packed and the exits are full of cars that ran out of gas. Did I mention it's ugly :( There was helicopter footage of tankers being filled at some facility and the trucks were lined up for as far as the camera panned.

Now they're saying not to top off your tank and not to get more fuel than you need - especially if you plan to shelter in place - but I don't know how you could not. How do I know what the next few days will hold? :( I fueled days ago and topped off my tank yesterday and filled another 5-gallon can, but again, how could I not... ? If I don't need it, I'll be the first to give it away to friends with generators.

As for me, I'm staying. If things really get ugly Saturday/Sunday, I have friends inland that I can get to via county roads for the most part, so I wouldn't be involved in the traffic. When Matthew was threatening, I had my invalid mother, so that was a whole different ballgame and I did evacuate. This is just me and the dogs. The elevation here is 15' (which is considered nosebleed by Florida standards) and I have a brick home with few trees. We'll see. The current storm surge is predicted to be less than 6' (Matthew = 8').

Everyone continue to keep those less fortunate in your prayers.

-M

genglandoh
09-07-2017, 07:04 PM
The roads around Mobile are completely backed up. My daughter that lives in Atlanta was supposed to come home this weekend but decided to stay home because of the threat of gas shortages and so much congestion on the roads.

The largest storm evacuation in U.S. history, and deservedly so.

Mickey Lake

It seems a little too soon to worry about Mobile getting hit with this hurricane.
I agree that Hurricane tracking predictions are very poor but I would not be worried about it hitting Mobile yet.
It would first have to move into the Gulf.

Concordia...41
09-07-2017, 07:17 PM
It seems a little too soon to worry about Mobile getting hit with this hurricane.
I agree that Hurricane tracking predictions are very poor but I would not be worried about it hitting Mobile yet.
It would first have to move into the Gulf.

It's not folks getting out of Mobile, it's however many million people are trying to get out of Florida and get out of the storm's path. The base population is 20 million - plus however many visitors, family and tourists are in the state. Obviously not everyone is evacuating but it's a lot. Two days ago the nearest hotel rooms were north of Atlanta. It wouldn't surprise me that I-10 is a mess all the way through Mississippi. :(

Concordia...41
09-07-2017, 07:31 PM
Dave Berry is always good for a chuckle.

Like most of his stuff (the colonoscopy piece is legendary) it's all true. Every word.

http://www.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html

bamamick
09-07-2017, 07:56 PM
It seems a little too soon to worry about Mobile getting hit with this hurricane.
I agree that Hurricane tracking predictions are very poor but I would not be worried about it hitting Mobile yet.
It would first have to move into the Gulf.

Ms. Margo is correct. It is most likely not coming here, with all we are supposed to get is winds in the 30 knot range. But all of our local shelters are filling up, the hotels are full now, and traffic through Mobile towards Biloxi is bumper to bumper. It will be interesting to see how it is at 5am when I drive to work.

Mickey Lake

willmarsh3
09-07-2017, 10:26 PM
A couple of friends left Hilton Head today to go back to Washington DC. They reported heavy traffic on I-95, presumably from some of the evacuation traffic.

hawkeye54
09-07-2017, 10:53 PM
We have Florida folks up here in South Carolina, evacuated from Central Florida - The weather folks say we are in Irma's path,
as well

Rick

bamamick
09-08-2017, 06:44 AM
This morning's forecast has it shifting west somewhat. Doesn't help Florida, and now puts all of Georgia, east Alabama, Tennessee, etc. in the way of some stormy weather (though not nearly as bad as what will happen in Florida).

Mickey Lake

StevenBauer
09-08-2017, 07:27 AM
That's not good for family in Venice and Tampa. Or for Doug and Carter.
Most of the people we know in Florida are not leaving.

zertgold
09-08-2017, 07:50 AM
Google crisis map is a pretty good tool. I was not previously aware of it:
https://google.org/crisismap/2017-irma?hl=en&llbox=43.31%2C1.56%2C-38.75%2C-102.04&t=TERRAIN&layers=3%2C1340721332252%2C30%2C1%2C31%2C32%2C5%2C 49%2C15%2C11%2C20%2C12%2Clayer9%2Clayer8

Norman Bernstein
09-08-2017, 07:53 AM
Google crisis map is a pretty good tool. I was not previously aware of it:
https://google.org/crisismap/2017-irma?hl=en&llbox=43.31%2C1.56%2C-38.75%2C-102.04&t=TERRAIN&layers=3%2C1340721332252%2C30%2C1%2C31%2C32%2C5%2C 49%2C15%2C11%2C20%2C12%2Clayer9%2Clayer8

Yeah, thanks for that link... a very useful map.

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 08:08 AM
IRMA has been down grated to a Cat4 good news.
But the forecasted path does not make sense.

According to CNN when Hurricane IRMA gets to Georgia it will start to turn northwest toward the Mississippi valley.
Hurricanes once inland move northeast

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html


http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Track.jpg

Hwyl
09-08-2017, 08:21 AM
IRMA has been down grated to a Cat4 good news.
But the forecasted path does not make sense.

According to CNN when Hurricane IRMA gets to Georgia it will start to turn northwest toward the Mississippi valley.
Hurricanes once inland move northeast

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html



Their computer models work it out better than I can think. Here's a history of tracks.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_climo.gif

Reynard38
09-08-2017, 08:24 AM
IRMA has been down grated to a Cat4 good news.
But the forecasted path does not make sense.

According to CNN when Hurricane IRMA gets to Georgia it will start to turn northwest toward the Mississippi valley.
Hurricanes once inland move northeast

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html


http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Track.jpg

I think that is typically true, but it's been an atypical year down here. It's been unusually cool in Atlanta lately. Low humidity too. When we flew from ATL to Louisville last night we had 90 knot tailwinds. Very usual for this time of year. That sometning we see in late fall thru early spring.
Ironically it looking like ATL might get hit worse than Beaufort based on the latest tracks. Not that I'm complaining!

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 08:28 AM
Their computer models work it out better than I can think. Here's a history of tracks.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_climo.gif

Thank you for the supporting material.
None of the past Hurricanes turn Northwest, they all turn Northeast.

Computer models should not be followed blindly a little common senses has to also be applied.

Flying Orca
09-08-2017, 08:30 AM
Dave Berry is always good for a chuckle.

Like most of his stuff (the colonoscopy piece is legendary) it's all true. Every word.

http://www.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html

A brief aside for levity: one of my favourite pieces of his was written about the school of accordion repair (one of only two in the world, at least at the time) that my partner attended. The woman who ran/runs it (not sure), to whom I refer as "Our Lady of the Accordions" because the school was housed in an old church, is truly a bit peculiar.

Hwyl
09-08-2017, 08:42 AM
Thank you for the supporting material.
None of the past Hurricanes turn Northwest, they all turn Northeast.

Computer models should not be followed blindly a little common senses has to also be applied.

A number of them continue NW and then turn right. This is a bigger hurricane than others. Your argument is a little like "my privet hedge stopped a runaway stroller, therefore it'll stop a dump truck."

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 08:47 AM
A number of them continue NW and then turn right. This is a bigger hurricane than others. Your argument is a little like "my privet hedge stopped a runaway stroller, therefore it'll stop a dump truck."

Please look at the chart again.
Notice all of the past Hurricanes turn Northeast once they hit the Latitude of Georgia.

ahp
09-08-2017, 08:54 AM
We plan to leave Saturday morning from Saint Simon's Island. I guess we still will, but now I wonder if our worse risk is I 95 turning into a parking lot. The 800 AM NOAA projection shows the most likely path for IRMA right up the center of the Florida peninsula and by the time it gets to us at 31N, 82W it may be down to at Cat. 1, or less. We could live with that.

We will be up around Macon. What is left of IRMA will pass right over us.

Hwyl
09-08-2017, 09:01 AM
Good luck.

Steve McMahon
09-08-2017, 09:14 AM
Good luck to all affected. What Island is Rummy on?

Garret
09-08-2017, 09:25 AM
Good luck to all affected. What Island is Rummy on?

St. Kitts

Dave Hadfield
09-08-2017, 09:39 AM
Richard Branson pulled through on his island. They all bunked together in his wine cellar.

To make room they had to drink all the wine.

Sensible chap, for a billionaire.

oznabrag
09-08-2017, 09:44 AM
It's not folks getting out of Mobile, it's however many million people are trying to get out of Florida and get out of the storm's path. The base population is 20 million - plus however many visitors, family and tourists are in the state. Obviously not everyone is evacuating but it's a lot. Two days ago the nearest hotel rooms were north of Atlanta. It wouldn't surprise me that I-10 is a mess all the way through Mississippi. :(

I recall Hurricane Alberto. July 4th, 1994. It was only a Hurricane for a few hours, came ashore near Destin, then moved North along the I-85 corridor turning the highway into a river.

All the people who had gone to the beach for the 4th were on that road, and about 20 of them drowned.

We stayed there in Grayton, and had the beach to ourselves for a week.


Please look at the chart again.
Notice all of the past Hurricanes turn Northeast once they hit the Latitude of Georgia.

OK, so when Irma takes a left and rains herself out over St. Louis, are you going to wake up to the fact of climate change?

No?

I FIGGERED!!!! (© GL)

LeeG
09-08-2017, 09:56 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJKcv8uWAAQuNN8?format=jpg

willmarsh3
09-08-2017, 09:58 AM
Richard Branson pulled through on his island. They all bunked together in his wine cellar.

To make room they had to drink all the wine.

Sensible chap, for a billionaire.

Yep, story here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/06/sir-richard-branson-is-riding-out-hurricane-irma-in-the-wine-cellar-on-his-private-island/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-lifestyle%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.eea3f348d4cf

StevenBauer
09-08-2017, 10:06 AM
We plan to leave Saturday morning from Saint Simon's Island. I guess we still will, but now I wonder if our worse risk is I 95 turning into a parking lot.

Why wait?



We could live with that.



Unless you don't.

StevenBauer
09-08-2017, 10:48 AM
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_5day.gif



This current track puts the center of the storm right on Lefty and Carter's house at 8am Monday. Not good.

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 11:05 AM
We plan to leave Saturday morning from Saint Simon's Island. I guess we still will, but now I wonder if our worse risk is I 95 turning into a parking lot. The 800 AM NOAA projection shows the most likely path for IRMA right up the center of the Florida peninsula and by the time it gets to us at 31N, 82W it may be down to at Cat. 1, or less. We could live with that.

We will be up around Macon. What is left of IRMA will pass right over us.

Sounds like a good plan.
If IRMA follow the forecasted track it will be over land for a long distance and the winds will drop to 35 MPH in the Macon area.
If IRMA turns right and stays offshore of Florida it will hit SC.

PS I was going to be in Brunswick starting Monday for a new startup but we decided to postpone the project.
When the project does get going maybe I can buy you a beer.

Concordia...41
09-08-2017, 11:25 AM
I think the 11 am update is much better for everyone - well, except for Lefty and Carter... :(

I continue to think though that the storm is going to weaken substantially as it moves up the state.

In the last 48 hours our forecast has gone from being a Category 3 passing right offshore, to a Category 2 coming over us, to a Category 1 coming over us.

I'm not saying don't be prepared, but I think the "Danger Meter" is going way down...

.02

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 11:31 AM
IRMA has been down grated to a Cat4 good news.
But the forecasted path does not make sense.

According to CNN when Hurricane IRMA gets to Georgia it will start to turn northwest toward the Mississippi valley.
Hurricanes once inland move northeast

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html


http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Track.jpg

This track does does not make sense to me.
1. When the Hurricane hits the gulf stream current (5 MPH) at the southern tip of Florida it should move a little more east.
2. Hurricanes do not normally stay on land when there is water nearby.
3. As said earlier Hurricanes do not move Northwest when they get above the latitude of Georgia


I think it may make landfall at the southern tip of Florida but then move offshore east of Florida.
It will then follow the Florida Coastline and make land fall in SC.
After that it will head North East and hit Charlotte NC or Raleigh.
By the time it hits NC it will be downgraded to storm status and rain will be the big issue.

If you live in SC or NC please get prepared.
You do not need to panic just do the normal things you would do for a power outage.
1. Fill up your car with gas.
2. Fill up some containers with drinking water.
3. Have a way to cook.
4. Have some canned food.
etc.

Added: the image above has changed it is the current forecast not the same image for when I posted.

oznabrag
09-08-2017, 11:33 AM
This track does does not make sense to me.


The track is not obligated to make sense to you.

In fact, given the odd sorts of things that DO seem to make sense to you, I would suggest that St. Louis should be evacuated.

genglandoh
09-08-2017, 11:36 AM
The track is not obligated to make sense to you.

In fact, given the odd sorts of things that DO seem to make sense to you, I would suggest that St. Louis should be evacuated.

There is no way IRMA is going to get to St. Louis.

Paul Pless
09-08-2017, 11:44 AM
This track does does not make sense to me.roflmao

oznabrag
09-08-2017, 11:45 AM
There is no way IRMA is going to get to St. Louis.

Does Irma going to St. Louis make no sense to you?

StevenBauer
09-08-2017, 12:03 PM
Given the appalling lack of understanding you've displayed concerning hurricanes here I find it amazing that you continue to share your thoughts. ;)

Paul Pless
09-08-2017, 12:17 PM
There is no way IRMA is going to get to St. Louis.one track has her eventually stalling out over cleveland; you gonna shelter in place?

Concordia...41
09-08-2017, 12:18 PM
Boys, boys, boys... let's play nice :)

mmd
09-08-2017, 12:22 PM
"... let's play nice"

That word combination seems to have been left out of The Bilge lexicon of late, Margo.

johnw
09-08-2017, 02:36 PM
There is no way IRMA is going to get to St. Louis.

If what's left of it gets there, it won't be that big a deal. The storm track makes sense if you don't assume it's still going to be a hurricane as it goes inland.

skuthorp
09-08-2017, 05:17 PM
Boys, boys, boys... let's play nice :)
Fat chance Margo, there are a bunch of threads about where 'nice' has been tossed out of the window.

Scott seems far more tolerant of acrimonious dissent these days.

Keep safe Margo.

Joe (SoCal)
09-08-2017, 09:43 PM
genglandoh GFY ( Good for you )

Margo you have my love and support
My dad is in West Palm Beach and I call him twice a day.

willmarsh3
09-08-2017, 09:46 PM
I got to see a total eclipse recently. Maybe next week I'll get to experience the eye of a hurricane given that it looks like it is going to pass over North Alabama. Fortunately it will be much weakened by then.

katey
09-08-2017, 10:16 PM
Back up to a Cat 5.

skuthorp
09-09-2017, 01:32 AM
Hang on……………...

Buy shares in glass……………..

StevenBauer
09-09-2017, 06:45 AM
This morning's track looks better for Margo, Lefty and Carter, Chuck and Mark. Less good for jack and all my relatives in the Tampa area. All staying put.
Good luck everyone!

oznabrag
09-09-2017, 08:21 AM
Where is Tom (CC manuals) in all this?

Port Richey is right in the way, yes?

Tom Montgomery
09-09-2017, 08:38 AM
There was a report on Good Morning America that hotels in Tampa are full. It seems many left Miami to avoid the hurricane... by booking rooms in Tampa.

Yikes! :(

genglandoh
09-09-2017, 10:05 AM
This track does does not make sense to me.
1. When the Hurricane hits the gulf stream current (5 MPH) at the southern tip of Florida it should move a little more east.
2. Hurricanes do not normally stay on land when there is water nearby.
3. As said earlier Hurricanes do not move Northwest when they get above the latitude of Georgia


I think it may make landfall at the southern tip of Florida but then move offshore east of Florida.
It will then follow the Florida Coastline and make land fall in SC.
After that it will head North East and hit Charlotte NC or Raleigh.
By the time it hits NC it will be downgraded to storm status and rain will be the big issue.

If you live in SC or NC please get prepared.
You do not need to panic just do the normal things you would do for a power outage.
1. Fill up your car with gas.
2. Fill up some containers with drinking water.
3. Have a way to cook.
4. Have some canned food.
etc.

Added: the image above has changed it is the current forecast not the same image for when I posted.

The path has changes and the projected track has also changed.
1. The Hurricane is heading northwest along the Cuban Coast.
Just a few hours ago they had the tack going due north.
Interesting that they could not predict the path just a few hours ahead correctly.
2. It has been down graded to a cat4.
Again they were saying it would pick up energy and be a cat5 when it hits Florida.

Notice that 2 of the 3 issues I had with the earlier track have changed.
1. They added a right turn when it hits the gulf stream. - Good
Because the track is moving northwest and not north as before it will turn north and a little east.
2. The track is not expected to go up the - middle of the state but stay alone the coast. Good
3. They still have the left turn to the Northwest that does not make sense. Bad
It will turn Northeast not Northwest when it getting into the latitude of Georgia.
It may even turn east across Florida before getting to Georgia.
Notice the new track has it ending up in Memphis not St. Louis.


New image
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html
http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Plots.jpg

Tom Montgomery
09-09-2017, 10:10 AM
It will be a tropical storm over Georgia and a low over Tennessee.

I hope this helps. :)

oznabrag
09-09-2017, 10:16 AM
The path has changes and the projected track has also changed.
1. The Hurricane is heading northwest along the Cuban Coast.
Just a few hours ago they had the tack going due north.
Interesting that they could not predict the path just a few hours ahead correctly.
2. It has been down graded to a cat4.
Again they were saying it would pick up energy and be a cat5 when it hits Florida.

Notice that 2 of the 3 issues I had with the earlier track have changed.
1. They added a right turn when it hits the gulf stream. - Good
Because the track is moving northwest and not north as before it will turn north and a little east.
2. The track is not expected to go up the - middle of the state but stay alone the coast. Good
3. They still have the left turn to the Northwest that does not make sense. Bad
It will turn Northeast not Northwest when it getting into the latitude of Georgia.
It may even turn east across Florida before getting to Georgia.
Notice the new track has it ending up in Memphis not St. Louis.


New image
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html
http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Plots.jpg

Does it still not make sense?

Tom Montgomery
09-09-2017, 10:22 AM
Go here for an explanation of the factors influencing Irma's path, genglandoh: https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/09/great_lakes_weather_key_to_hur.amp

genglandoh
09-09-2017, 10:25 AM
Does it still not make sense?

Because it agrees with of 2 the the 3 issues I had it is getting better.
But the turning Northwest still does not make sense.

Tom Montgomery
09-09-2017, 10:27 AM
Follow the link I provided. Then take a look at today's U.S. weather map showing the highs and lows.

Irma does not exist in a vacuum. Other weather systems influence it's movement.

genglandoh
09-09-2017, 10:38 AM
The path has changes and the projected track has also changed.
1. The Hurricane is heading northwest along the Cuban Coast.
Just a few hours ago they had the tack going due north.
Interesting that they could not predict the path just a few hours ahead correctly.
2. It has been down graded to a cat4.
Again they were saying it would pick up energy and be a cat5 when it hits Florida.

Notice that 2 of the 3 issues I had with the earlier track have changed.
1. They added a right turn when it hits the gulf stream. - Good
Because the track is moving northwest and not north as before it will turn north and a little east.
2. The track is not expected to go up the - middle of the state but stay alone the coast. Good
3. They still have the left turn to the Northwest that does not make sense. Bad
It will turn Northeast not Northwest when it getting into the latitude of Georgia.
It may even turn east across Florida before getting to Georgia.
Notice the new track has it ending up in Memphis not St. Louis.


New image
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-caribbean-florida/index.html
http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/weather/hurricane.tracker/watching/Plots.jpg

Interesting the image above just like the image I posted yesterday keeps updating.
Notice IRMA is now at cat3 not cat4.

Another important point the Hurricane is moving slowly 9 mph over land.
Not good the the area where it hits land but goon news for areas inland.

Phillip Allen
09-09-2017, 11:58 AM
Interesting the image above just like the image I posted yesterday keeps updating.
Notice IRMA is now at cat3 not cat4.

Another important point the Hurricane is moving slowly 9 mph over land.
Not good the the area where it hits land but goon news for areas inland.

that track has it running over Doug Noyes place

Paul Pless
09-09-2017, 12:01 PM
that track has it running over Doug Noyes placeYup, a few hours after it runs over Grebe's place.

StevenBauer
09-09-2017, 12:51 PM
Your place is in the cone now, too, Paul. But winds should be much lower by then.

Paul Pless
09-09-2017, 12:55 PM
Your place is in the cone now, too, Paul. But winds should be much lower by then.
Yup. I have a seat on the first flight down tomorrow morning. I'd like to put off the decision to go but Delta is making it uncertain whether there will be scheduled flights into the hurricane zones including Atlanta after midday Sunday.

Paul Pless
09-09-2017, 12:58 PM
Also would like to note for genglandoh the current projected terminus of the storm is. . .





wait for it





wait for it






St Louis!:D

LeeG
09-09-2017, 01:01 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/irma-tampa-bound-forecasters-49721484

The Tampa region looks likely to get a direct hit, although that could still change, Feltgen said Saturday.

For decades disaster officials and meteorologists have put the Tampa region as one of their worst-case scenarios, along with Miami, New Orleans, Houston and New York. The other four cities have been hit in the last 25 years but Tampa has not been hit by a major hurricane since 1921 when its population was about 10,000, Feltgen said. Now it has around 3 million people.

"It's certainly one of those metropolitan areas where we have one of the greatest concerns, particularly with storm surge, particularly with inexperience," Feltgen said.

The hurricane center forecasts 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.7 meters) of storm surge in extreme southwestern Florida, an area that includes Naples. Experts say the area from Venice to Captiva Island will get about 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.4 meters), with the Tampa Bay region getting about 3 to 5 feet (-0.9 to 1.5 meters) further north. Southeast Florida up to Boca Raton can expect 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) of storm surge, with areas further north on the east coast of Florida forecast to get 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) of storm surge.

skuthorp
09-09-2017, 03:56 PM
It's going to get worse. Science says 2 degrees is likely by 2100. Schroders, a big British investment house is working on 6-7 degrees.
Follow the money………………….

Phil Y
09-09-2017, 04:09 PM
Sad but predictable reports of lootings, black vs white at gunpoint, the whole privileged tourist vs local poverty starting to come out. Civilisation is a fragile thing.

Chris Smith porter maine
09-09-2017, 06:07 PM
Interesting the image above just like the image I posted yesterday keeps updating.
Notice IRMA is now at cat3 not cat4.

Another important point the Hurricane is moving slowly 9 mph over land.
Not good the the area where it hits land but goon news for areas inland.

Back up to a four Cuba tried but couldn't tire it out that much.

Phillip Allen
09-09-2017, 06:11 PM
any of you lefties bought stock in sheet-rock yet?

Chris Coose
09-09-2017, 06:13 PM
any of you lefties bought stock in sheet-rock yet?

I went big time on plywood and condoms.

Chris Smith porter maine
09-09-2017, 06:14 PM
any of you lefties bought stock in sheet-rock yet?

Naw went heavy on blueboard.

PeterSibley
09-09-2017, 06:27 PM
A projected storm surge of 12 feet !

oznabrag
09-09-2017, 06:57 PM
any of you lefties bought stock in sheet-rock yet?

Ugly.

genglandoh
09-09-2017, 07:08 PM
Back up to a four Cuba tried but couldn't tire it out that much.

You information is incorrect.
It is still a Cat3 storm.
It is projected to increase to a Cat4 as its crosses over the gulf stream's warm water, but it has not happened yet.

genglandoh
09-09-2017, 07:27 PM
FYI
http://www.publiclossconsultants.com/wp-plc/services/loss-assessment/hurricane-damage/

http://www.publiclossconsultants.com/wp-plc/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Hurricane-chart.jpg

skuthorp
09-09-2017, 08:02 PM
Water levels have begun to rise ahead of Irma, water over the roads on Key West as reported on our news.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-braced-130mph-winds-cuba-left-devastated/

skuthorp
09-10-2017, 01:33 AM
"“You're on your own until we can actually get in there (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172231487.html), and it's safe for our teams to support local and state efforts," FEMA chief Brock Long said in a statement obtained by the Miami Herald. "The message has been clear — the Keys are going to be impacted, there is no safe area within the Keys, and you put your life in your own hands by not evacuating.“What we have to do is set citizen expectations. We are not going to be there right after storm passes. We need to be sure that the roadways are clear, we need to get trucks in to get stuff there," he added. "And that's why we ask people to be prepared for three days, and you know hopefully in these landmark events, citizens will start to take these preparedness measures seriously. All over the country, we're asking you to be prepared. We cannot be there right after the storm.""

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-florida-tampa-miami-impacts

jack grebe
09-10-2017, 03:39 AM
"“You're on your own until we can actually get in there (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172231487.html), and it's safe for our teams to support local and state efforts," FEMA chief Brock Long said in a statement obtained by the Miami Herald. "The message has been clear — the Keys are going to be impacted, there is no safe area within the Keys, and you put your life in your own hands by not evacuating.“What we have to do is set citizen expectations. We are not going to be there right after storm passes. We need to be sure that the roadways are clear, we need to get trucks in to get stuff there," he added. "And that's why we ask people to be prepared for three days, and you know hopefully in these landmark events, citizens will start to take these preparedness measures seriously. All over the country, we're asking you to be prepared. We cannot be there right after the storm.""

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-florida-tampa-miami-impacts

Stupid people......... I wonder if those people down in key West are having second thoughts yet???

Fitz
09-10-2017, 05:05 AM
Mom is in Maine for the summer. Her winter place is near Venice. I am guessing it will be heavily damaged at a minimum.

Concordia...41
09-10-2017, 07:19 AM
Sad but predictable reports of lootings, black vs white at gunpoint, the whole privileged tourist vs local poverty starting to come out. Civilisation is a fragile thing.

I don't know where you get your news, but it's not out of Florida. It's been people helping people here all week.

And when you posted this, the storm hadn't even hit much less passed and give time for looters to go try to find something. It's just now over the Keys.

Geeze :pmad::pmad:

Garret
09-10-2017, 07:21 AM
I don't know where you get your news, but it's not out of Florida. It's been people helping people here all week.

And when you posted this, the storm hadn't even hit much less passed and give time for looters to go try to find something. It's just now over the Keys.

Geeze :pmad::pmad:

Not Florida - but the Islands. Reports out of St. Martin/Maarten are quite awful: major looting, gunfire, etc.

StevenBauer
09-10-2017, 09:26 AM
How about José? Maybe doing a full circle and heading west as a cat 2:

http://www.weather.bm/maps/bwswtnt22.jpg?2017910152448

jack grebe
09-10-2017, 09:30 AM
Oh, that is so not funny........

Phillip Allen
09-10-2017, 09:31 AM
I don't know where you get your news, but it's not out of Florida. It's been people helping people here all week.

And when you posted this, the storm hadn't even hit much less passed and give time for looters to go try to find something. It's just now over the Keys.

Geeze :pmad::pmad:

it's very important to some people to focus on the negative as if it were the rule... ya kain't fix that

Ian McColgin
09-10-2017, 09:49 AM
Ah Phillip, you really should have read post #235.

Reynard38
09-10-2017, 09:53 AM
How about José? Maybe doing a full circle and heading west as a cat 2:

http://www.weather.bm/maps/bwswtnt22.jpg?2017910152448

Longer range forecasts and tracks have it weakening and heading back to the NE.

Garret
09-10-2017, 10:17 AM
it's very important to some people to focus on the negative as if it were the rule... ya kain't fix that

As Ian said - read my post # 235. I do not focus on the negative, but I spent quite a while working in Sint Maarten & have a soft spot for the island. To hear about the violence simply hurts, as I got to know a lot of people there (from all walks of life) & they all were wonderful. Not to say it was all sweetness & light - but I got along well with a whole lot of different types/nationalities of people & enjoyed myself immensely.

oznabrag
09-10-2017, 10:47 AM
it's very important to some people to focus on the negative as if it were the rule... ya kain't fix that

Yes. And we can use this post as evidence.

Reynard38
09-10-2017, 11:30 AM
Not Florida - but the Islands. Reports out of St. Martin/Maarten are quite awful: major looting, gunfire, etc.

That's what always bugged me about the Caribbean. The disparity between the locals and everybody else. Doesn't make for a very safe environment.

SKIP KILPATRICK
09-10-2017, 11:43 AM
Any word Rummy? I'm quite concerned!

jack grebe
09-10-2017, 11:50 AM
Any word Rummy? I'm quite concerned!

From what I have seen of the islands, may be cut off by power or com towers..... Hope all is well.

Garret
09-10-2017, 12:19 PM
That's what always bugged me about the Caribbean. The disparity between the locals and everybody else. Doesn't make for a very safe environment.

I always thought Sint Maarten was different. It's the go-to place for real work - whether you need a crane or to buy a truck or whatever. I spent a morning in a radiator shop, getting an old Passat radiator fixed. The 4 guys working there were absolutely wonderful: cheerful, friendly, & knowledgeable. We swapped stories (hurricanes vs. plowing 3' of snow) & had a great time. I found little of the obsequiousness I've encountered on islands 100% dependent on tourism.

This sort of interaction repeated itself over & over, including hanging out in 3 stool Haitian bars - where I got invited to a family barbecue. When I showed up with a case of soda & 3 Kg brisket, I was met with hugs & grins & couldn't leave for hours. Kids climbing all over me ("he's big as a tree!") & parents looking on with big grins.

Now if you go walking through that same neighborhood in fancy clothes & diamond earrings (as one couple did while I was there) - the reaction will be different. Seeing 2 year's income on each ear was just too much for someone to resist. But that's common sense anywhere in the world.

genglandoh
09-10-2017, 02:08 PM
Downgraded to a Cat3 with 120 MPH winds moving 12 MPH north.
Still has not hit mainland Florida.

jack grebe
09-10-2017, 02:15 PM
Still has not hit mainland Florida.

Yet.......... Sadly

I have friends that live on Tampa Bay,.......... All the way at the very top by the RR tracks.
The house sits high, but the basement has still flooded several times..... May not be so lucky
this time,. But they at least went I land

Glen Longino
09-10-2017, 03:04 PM
Downgraded to a Cat3 with 120 MPH winds moving 12 MPH north.
Still has not hit mainland Florida.

Jim Cantore was spotted at Tampa International yesterday. He went from there to Fort Myers. The eye might be expected at Fort Myers.

Hwyl
09-10-2017, 03:04 PM
Any word Rummy? I'm quite concerned!


From what I have seen of the islands, may be cut off by power or com towers..... Hope all is well.

He posted some time ago that he's fine.